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Coronavirus

India’s death toll 10 times higher than official count at 4 million (paywalled)

India’s death toll during the pandemic topped four million, ten times the official count, according to a report.

The study published by the Centre for Global Development and Harvard University found that the pandemic was probably the worst human tragedy in India’s modern history.

India has recorded more than 414,000 Covid-19 deaths, according to official statistics, but experts have warned since the crisis began that the true caseload and death toll are likely to be many times higher. Those suspicions have increased since a second wave of infections devastated the country this year, with 400,000 new cases and fatalities exceeding 4,000 a day, triggering a collapse of the healthcare system.

The government of Narendra Modi has dismissed the claims as exaggerated. States have been accused of covering up Covid-19 deaths to save face since the start of the crisis. This has exacerbated inaccurate record-keeping in the world’s second most populous nation, which has a population of 1.4 billion. Most Indians die at home, while at the peak of the second wave thousands of bodies were dumped in the Ganges or buried in shallow graves as wood for funeral pyres ran short.

The report used three data sources to calculate excess deaths - the gap between recorded and expected deaths - during the pandemic up to June 21. Researchers extrapolated data from the civil registration system that records births and deaths across seven states, accounting for half of India’s population. This was combined with data from two nationwide antibody tests and set against global fatality rates in different age groups. Finally, the study looked at a survey of consumers conducted across thousands of Indian households three times a year, which also records whether a family member has died in the past four months.

The researchers, who included Arvind Subramanian, India’s former chief economic adviser, cautioned that Covid-19 deaths in the seven states may not be the same across the whole of India. However, they concluded that “actual deaths during the pandemic are likely to have been an order of magnitude greater than the official count”. A death toll of four million or higher represented “arguably India’s worst human tragedy since partition and independence” in 1947, the study said.

Its just a flu mate.
 
The spin Is outrageous. Any politician that owns their mistakes and learns from them will have my support.

look at what it did for dimma and Richmond.
It's become impossible for a politician to admit that they made a mistake - it's stupid. The first pollie to admit to a mistake now would probably earn a lot of brownie points from the public!
 
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110 in NSW. 43 infectious in the community..keeps going up.

Gladys now gaslighting by saying if she hadn't locked down as fast as she did they'd have 1000s of cases now..spare me!

Yep horrible numbers today and indicates that numbers will continue to rise. 40% of cases were out in the community suggests that either contact tracers have no control over this and aren't notifying close contacts quick enough (due to their workload) or people aren't doing this. The fact that this has risen from between 20-30% to 40% today is not a good sign.
 
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Yep horrible numbers today and indicates that numbers will continue to rise. 40% of cases were out in the community suggests that either contact tracers have no control over this and aren't notifying close contacts quick enough (due to their workload) or people aren't doing this. The fact that this has risen from between 20-30% to 40% today is not a good sign.
It's worse than that - it's 60 out of 110 infectious in the community with 13 still under investigation.
 
  • Wow
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after being in "lockdown" for 3.5 weeks, how can the percentage of people infectious in the community be so high? its crazy.

It's become impossible for a politician to admit that they made a mistake - it's stupid. The first pollie to admit to a mistake now would probably earn a lot of brownie points from the public!

Andrews did. on numerous occasions.
 
All true Mr P.

One difference between COVID-19 and the flu is that it is rare for an otherwise healthy person to get so sick they need to be hospitalised and perhaps die from the flu. There may be an offset impact but there would be people who die from COVID who would not die from the flu.

Agree there Sin. The might be some replacement, but you are right Covid is far more transmissible and far more deadly than the flu. I think we will end up with a scenario where flu deaths worldwide will decline, but Covid deaths will increase the number so excess deaths of flu / covid will grow. The key is vaccination and then ensuring that hospitals can then cope with ongoing demand from covid / flu. Then we learn to live with it.
 
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It'd be a shitbox too,

with wife-swapping,coke head, insta-spivs in linen on one side,

and an AirB&B party central, overflowing your wheels bin with bottles and cans, on the other side.
Great...I won't need to go out to the club after all!
 
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It's become impossible for a politician to admit that they made a mistake - it's stupid. The first pollie to admit to a mistake now would probably earn a lot of brownie points from the public!
I don’t get it. Everything in corporate disaster management says rule 1 is to own it and promise to fix it. And then fix it and learn from it. I get corporations don’t have an opposition riding it to the ground Though.

It’s how life works in so many ways - avoiding repeating mistakes is a huge drive.

the failure to learn in this pandemic shows all the cracks with how we do things. Eg simple stuff like the Vic contact tracing app not showing history. Imagine we could learn from each others best practices to manage a national Issue Vs point out who is better or worse. Ridiculous - should be a federal app that shares data to all health departments. To help all Australians.

I didn’t really appreciate until now how our democracy prevents learning And fractures resources.
 
Berejiklian channeling her inner Trump by saying that the high numbers are a result of high testing.
 
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after being in "lockdown" for 3.5 weeks, how can the percentage of people infectious in the community be so high? its crazy.

I think is what the term "in the community" means.

My understanding is that unless you are told to isolate then you are "in the community". Ie. you are allowed to live normally under current restrictions, you can work if you are an essential worker, you can go to coles etc.

So essentially this is a measure of how much control contact tracing has over the current outbreak, and an increasing proportion of people being in the community means that contact tracers are falling further behind in the volumes of primary and secondary contacts that they need to contact. Unless they can get on top of this, they will not be able to control the spread and logic tells you that the virus will continue to spread.
 
Andrews did. on numerous occasions.
Gilding the lily a bit their mate. HQ whitewash/inquiry was a disgraceful performance by Andrews and all of the ministers and bureaucrats involved.

I agree he has admitted some mistakes but that inquiry was an absolute joke. Collective amnesia and creeping assumptions...............
 
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Lot of talk here about comparative risk, which is a reasonable topic, but let's get some perspective.

Yes, we lose 1,000 people on the roads each year (nationally) - but it isn't as if we just accept this and do nothing about it. Back in the early 1970s we had a road toll well over 1,000 a year in Victoria alone, remember there were maybe 2.5 million people in Melbourne back then. Action was taken, seat belt laws introduced, breath testing, speed limits reduced, cars are far safer etc. I well remember the campaign to get the road toll down to 899 in Victoria. What is it now, maybe 300?

Life has risks, but we do take action to reduce risk.

COVID has been compared to the 'flu, and it is true that the 'flu causes deaths every year without the response we have had to COVID. But there are many differences. As someone above pointed out, the 'flu tends to be fatal where there are other issues and COVID is like a very bad 'flu pandemic, it does kill more and does overwhelm health systems. The 'flu which went around after WWI is a more apt comparison and that killed millions.

The number in Melbourne is not great, was hoping it would keep going down, oh well, it should turn. NSW much worse, I think they are likely to have to wait a few more days until the more stringent restrictions take hold and hopefully the numbers will come down, but NSW will have to restrict movement for quite a while to get this under control.

DS
 
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