Coronavirus

[Coburgtiger]

I see Uk daily new cases in second wave are 3-5 times the rate in first wave yet deaths per day about half. So deaths per case are 1/6 to 10% of first wave.
Any simple or complex explanation of why the massive reduction in mortality?

It's a lot of reasons.

Difference in care, awareness, preparation, rates of testing, sensitivity of testing, but also, those most likely to die will die first.

This is insensitive, but it's like wringing a sponge. You don't need to put all that much pressure the first time, and most of the water comes out. Then you can squeeze twice as hard the second time, and get half as much.

 

[22nd Man]

Were going into lockdown on the 16 th of December till 4th of Jan ..no alcohol sales then either so stocking up .. happy Christmas and New year Not sadly .. will be stuck in Nata no travel . Ppl travel to there home towns and villages for a family Christmas and NYE and there trying to stop that I guess esp ppl traveling from Gaborone the area were there is an issue .. 11 536 active cases 11 522 in the Gabourne area 900 Ks away .(34 deaths 33 in Gabourne and one in Francistown) .so only 8 cases for the rest of the country .. none near Nata thank goodness ..
Still trying to get to Australia , Melbourne in March .. fingers crossed to see my mum maybe for the last time on waiting list .. not sure how much there charging for quarantine?

Hearing reports that there is no legislation in Vic that permits them to charge for quarantine. But I would imagine it would get bipartisan support.

 

[AngryAnt]

Hearing reports that there is no legislation in Vic that permits them to charge for quarantine. But I would imagine it would get bipartisan support.

I read they were getting the legislative aspects sorted by Tuesday.

 

[LeeToRainesToRoach]

Australian COVID vaccine terminated due to HIV ‘false positives’ (paywalled)​

Rob Harris
The Age
December 11, 2020

A billion-dollar deal for the Morrison government to buy more than 50 million doses of the University of Queensland’s potential coronavirus vaccine has been abruptly terminated after several trial participants returned false positive HIV test results.

UQ, working in partnership with Australian global biotech company CSL, will abandon its current clinical trials following the discovery. It informed the federal government of the initial data on Monday, which was then referred to health authorities for urgent medical advice.

Sources with knowledge of the current trials said pathology tests had in the past weeks confirmed the positives were in fact false and the health of the participants has not been put at risk.

Prime Minister Scott Morrison said the National Security Committee of Cabinet agreed to terminate the purchasing agreement on Thursday, following expert health advice and fears the revelation would severely damage the Australian public’s confidence in the COVID-19 vaccination program, which is expected to begin early next year.

"We have prepared for this. We have planned for this. And now we're making decisions in accordance with this," he said on Friday morning.

He said the government had "spread the risk" by entering into multiple agreements and had secured 20 million new doses from Oxford University-AstraZeneca and another 11 million from Novavax to cover for the 51 million doses the home-grown product was to supply.

"The net out-take of this is we are more likely to have the entire population vaccinated earlier rather than later by the ability to bring this manufacturing capability forward," Mr Morrison said.

The UQ vaccine candidate used a protein and adjuvant platform, containing the COVID-19 spike protein and a "molecular clamp". A small component is derived from the human immunodeficiency virus, known as HIV, that is not able to infect people or replicate.

A source with knowledge of the clinical results said although the HIV protein fragment posed "absolutely no health risk to people", they had identified that some trial participants who received the vaccine produced a partial antibody response to it.

The partial antibody response had the potential to interfere with some HIV screening tests that look for the antibodies – leading to a false positive test result. It is unclear how long participants would continue to return false positive results.

The source said although all participants had been told there was a remote possibility HIV markers could be found in tests during the trial, medical researchers had not expected it to occur.

Health department secretary Brendan Murphy said the risk of a false-positive was seen to be "extremely low at the outset".

"Everyone was very surprised at the unexpected prevalence of the false positive," Professor Murphy said.

More than 200 volunteers in two groups – aged 18 to 55, and 56 and over – were involved in the phase one trial with a proportion of the participants receiving a placebo.

Evidence publicly released so far from the clinical trials found the vaccine to be safe and said it produced a strong immune response able to neutralise the COVID-19 virus in laboratory based tests.

 

[scottyturnerscurse]

Australian COVID vaccine terminated due to HIV ‘false positives’ (paywalled)​

Rob Harris
The Age
December 11, 2020

A billion-dollar deal for the Morrison government to buy more than 50 million doses of the University of Queensland’s potential coronavirus vaccine has been abruptly terminated after several trial participants returned false positive HIV test results.

UQ, working in partnership with Australian global biotech company CSL, will abandon its current clinical trials following the discovery. It informed the federal government of the initial data on Monday, which was then referred to health authorities for urgent medical advice.

Sources with knowledge of the current trials said pathology tests had in the past weeks confirmed the positives were in fact false and the health of the participants has not been put at risk.

Prime Minister Scott Morrison said the National Security Committee of Cabinet agreed to terminate the purchasing agreement on Thursday, following expert health advice and fears the revelation would severely damage the Australian public’s confidence in the COVID-19 vaccination program, which is expected to begin early next year.

"We have prepared for this. We have planned for this. And now we're making decisions in accordance with this," he said on Friday morning.

He said the government had "spread the risk" by entering into multiple agreements and had secured 20 million new doses from Oxford University-AstraZeneca and another 11 million from Novavax to cover for the 51 million doses the home-grown product was to supply.

"The net out-take of this is we are more likely to have the entire population vaccinated earlier rather than later by the ability to bring this manufacturing capability forward," Mr Morrison said.

The UQ vaccine candidate used a protein and adjuvant platform, containing the COVID-19 spike protein and a "molecular clamp". A small component is derived from the human immunodeficiency virus, known as HIV, that is not able to infect people or replicate.

A source with knowledge of the clinical results said although the HIV protein fragment posed "absolutely no health risk to people", they had identified that some trial participants who received the vaccine produced a partial antibody response to it.

The partial antibody response had the potential to interfere with some HIV screening tests that look for the antibodies – leading to a false positive test result. It is unclear how long participants would continue to return false positive results.

The source said although all participants had been told there was a remote possibility HIV markers could be found in tests during the trial, medical researchers had not expected it to occur.

Health department secretary Brendan Murphy said the risk of a false-positive was seen to be "extremely low at the outset".

"Everyone was very surprised at the unexpected prevalence of the false positive," Professor Murphy said.

More than 200 volunteers in two groups – aged 18 to 55, and 56 and over – were involved in the phase one trial with a proportion of the participants receiving a placebo.

Evidence publicly released so far from the clinical trials found the vaccine to be safe and said it produced a strong immune response able to neutralise the COVID-19 virus in laboratory based tests.

Shayna Jack likes this.

 

[DavidSSS]

Rushing to create vaccines, clearly some are going to have issues.

Such is life, having a number of research groups working on this means we only need some of the vaccines to work, be safe and not have other issues.

Sounds like they need a bit more time to get their technology right, a new way of doing things always throws up issues.

DS

 

[Althom]

Rushing to create vaccines, clearly some are going to have issues.

Such is life, having a number of research groups working on this means we only need some of the vaccines to work, be safe and not have other issues.

Sounds like they need a bit more time to get their technology right, a new way of doing things always throws up issues.

DS

Agreed, far too much doom and gloom about this.
Some of the vaccines under development were bound to fall over in development just like some are almost as likely to be found ineffective even after approved.

 

[AngryAnt]

Agreed, far too much doom and gloom about this.
Some of the vaccines under development were bound to fall over in development just like some are almost as likely to be found ineffective even after approved.

And some even though effective will be too late to market, unless they can be super cheap and super effective. Would have been nice to have an Aussie solution but the main thing is the population can get vaccinated one way or another.

 

[DavidSSS]

Plus, although early testing of some vaccines has shown they are effective, we don't know how long they will be effective for, we don't know if there will be long term side effects and the rate of effectiveness we will only really know when millions are vaccinated.

Mind you, the UK is doing some nice testing for the rest of us.

DS

 

[Tigers of Old]

The US had 3124 deaths yesterday. Unfathomable.

Daily US coronavirus death toll will exceed 9/11's for months, CDC chief warns

More than 2900 US deaths were reported in the latest daily toll, a pace projected to continue for the next two to three months until the vaccine can be widely distributed.

www.smh.com.au

Meanwhile life is getting back to normal here.

 

[Sintiger]

The US had 3124 deaths yesterday. Unfathomable.

Daily US coronavirus death toll will exceed 9/11's for months, CDC chief warns

More than 2900 US deaths were reported in the latest daily toll, a pace projected to continue for the next two to three months until the vaccine can be widely distributed.

www.smh.com.au

Meanwhile life is getting back to normal here.

It is

Close to 1 in 20 Americans have or have had COVID, It is now closing in on 1 in every thousand Americans have died. There are only 3 events in American history with a bigger death toll. The Civil war, WW2 and the Spanish Flu.

Put that in context, it is the equivalent of 1.3 million Australians getting COVID and 26,000 dying.

 

[LeeToRainesToRoach]

Meanwhile life is getting back to normal here.

Don't count your chickens.

NSW Premier rejects student quarantine plan under consideration in Victoria (paywalled)
Michael Fowler
The Age
December 11, 2020

NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian says her state will not adopt a proposal under consideration by the Victorian government for thousands of international students to be chartered into Australia and quarantined in student accommodation from January.

Speaking after national cabinet met on Friday, Prime Minister Scott Morrison also indicated he was in no rush to pressure states into expediting the return of international students – a $40 billion sector nationwide.

The Age revealed on Friday that the education sector had proposed to every state and territory a bespoke quarantine model that would allow 23,000 students to enter Victoria between January and April 30, partially clawing back the exodus of at least 80,000 students from the state this year.

While Victoria is considering the plan, which would mean quarantine spots are not taken from stranded Australians, Ms Berejiklian ruled out the arrangement for NSW.

"I'm not happy to see the quarantine system move outside of the hotels at this stage. I think that would be too high risk," she said.

"That's just NSW, I know other states do have other arrangements. And so for that reason, the cap of 3000 [arrivals per week] is not going to change in NSW."

"If we could use facilities – mining facilities, or Howard Springs [in the Northern Territory], or facilities in other states perhaps to help facilitate that. We should be working with other states to see how we can make that happen."

A Melbourne University spokeswoman said the university was looking forward to welcoming back some international students onto campus in 2021.

"The university continues to have ongoing talks with the federal and state governments about the mechanics to facilitate the return of overseas students to Australia," she said.

- - - - -

If Andrews puts our health at risk for the sake of foreign students after the sacrifices Victorians have made, he will deserve whatever comes to him.

 

[Sintiger]

Don't count your chickens.

NSW Premier rejects student quarantine plan under consideration in Victoria (paywalled)
Michael Fowler
The Age
December 11, 2020

NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian says her state will not adopt a proposal under consideration by the Victorian government for thousands of international students to be chartered into Australia and quarantined in student accommodation from January.

Speaking after national cabinet met on Friday, Prime Minister Scott Morrison also indicated he was in no rush to pressure states into expediting the return of international students – a $40 billion sector nationwide.

The Age revealed on Friday that the education sector had proposed to every state and territory a bespoke quarantine model that would allow 23,000 students to enter Victoria between January and April 30, partially clawing back the exodus of at least 80,000 students from the state this year.

While Victoria is considering the plan, which would mean quarantine spots are not taken from stranded Australians, Ms Berejiklian ruled out the arrangement for NSW.

"I'm not happy to see the quarantine system move outside of the hotels at this stage. I think that would be too high risk," she said.

"That's just NSW, I know other states do have other arrangements. And so for that reason, the cap of 3000 [arrivals per week] is not going to change in NSW."

"If we could use facilities – mining facilities, or Howard Springs [in the Northern Territory], or facilities in other states perhaps to help facilitate that. We should be working with other states to see how we can make that happen."

A Melbourne University spokeswoman said the university was looking forward to welcoming back some international students onto campus in 2021.

"The university continues to have ongoing talks with the federal and state governments about the mechanics to facilitate the return of overseas students to Australia," she said.

- - - - -

If Andrews puts our health at risk for the sake of foreign students after the sacrifices Victorians have made, he will deserve whatever comes to him.

I don’t disagree but the Feds and the states have to do something about universities. They are bleeding to death.
Universities are not just about students they are also where a large percentage of our research comes from and that is very important for the country going forward from a number of points of view including employment.

 

[MD Jazz]

If Andrews puts our health at risk for the sake of foreign students after the sacrifices Victorians have made, he will deserve whatever comes to him.

Agree with Sing it is important to start getting the OS students back if it can be done safely. Uni's need the revenue.

Makes you wonder how much influence Andrews Belt & Road deal with China has on this sort of decision?

 

[tigerman]

It is

Close to 1 in 20 Americans have or have had COVID, It is now closing in on 1 in every thousand Americans have died. There are only 3 events in American history with a bigger death toll. The Civil war, WW2 and the Spanish Flu.

Put that in context, it is the equivalent of 1.3 million Australians getting COVID and 26,000 dying.

Over 20,000 deaths in the last week in the US, is Trump still saying that "it will soon go away"

 

[Althom]

The stupid is strong in some.
This muppet, having breached quarantine once and ending up inside now gets given a second chance and blows it again.

Adelaide quarantine breacher allegedly ignores COVID-19 rules again after returning to Perth (watoday.com.au)

 

[LeeToRainesToRoach]

I don’t disagree but the Feds and the states have to do something about universities. They are bleeding to death.
Universities are not just about students they are also where a large percentage of our research comes from and that is very important for the country going forward from a number of points of view including employment.

Then let them bleed like other industries have until it's safe. Nobody asked for this but to invite the virus in now with a vaccine in sight would be the height of stupidity.

 

[Ridley]

The half baked plan to bring in overseas students and quarantine them in student accommodation is a recipe for disaster and a 3rd wave. There is no detail shown as to how the quarantine will be secured. You can just see infected students waltzing out of the quarantine accommodation and igniting the 3rd wave. This seems a preposterous plan on face value.

If we want to get students back it must be done under the regular quarantine program for all returning travellers.

 

[LeeToRainesToRoach]

The half baked plan to bring in overseas students and quarantine them in student accommodation is a recipe for disaster and a 3rd wave. There is no detail shown as to how the quarantine will be secured. You can just see infected students waltzing out of the quarantine accommodation and igniting the 3rd wave. This seems a preposterous plan on face value.

If we want to get students back it must be done under the regular quarantine program for all returning travellers.

Last I heard the universities were offering to pay the $3K hotel quarantine cost. Tertiary education must be rather lucrative.

 

[Sintiger]

Then let them bleed like other industries have until it's safe. Nobody asked for this but to invite the virus in now with a vaccine in sight would be the height of stupidity.

Two things
1. I said I don’t disagree so why the comment on letting students in ?
2. Universities were deemed ineligible for job keeper and also for rent relief when they were renting crown land so they weren’t treated like everyone else.