Coronavirus

[an_oxford_man]

Civil unrest. Non compliance. Even if you take the virus seriously enough to actually get tested and diagnosed, flagrant lying to contract tracers ensures the spread continues.

Welcome to Victoria. The Transmission State.

 

[IanG]

On Vic contact tracing, from an epidemiologist who has been somewhat critical of Victoria's response:

Where did Victoria go so wrong with contact tracing and have they fixed it?

Some hard lessons have been learned along the way but the contact tracing system in Victoria is now very comprehensive and increasingly robust.

theconversation.com

 

[AngryAnt]

I was talking to some colleagues with a bit of expertise in these areas the other day and our pure speculation followed this logic.

The first wave throughout Australia was generally the result of international travel and cruise ships.

People involved in that sort of activity are generally of a certain demographic and have the means and opportunity to isolate and follow the rules pretty solidly.

Because of the issues in Victoria with the quarantine debacle, they suffered a second wave where people from another demographic, this time low paid staff like security, cleaners etc were exposed and the pressures on them to not isolate or follow rules are much greater, hence it spreads more and is harder to contain.

In a lot of ways it is a pretty typical pattern of most health issues, your socio-economic status is very reflective of your susceptibility, prognosis ability to recover and recovery time.

Like I said pure speculation but I think there is logic in it.

Not speculation, that's pretty clear from what we know.

Some people in those demographics have screwed up, some have been the victims of having no choice but to work in difficult and dangerous circumstances.

 

[bigwow]

6 new, 0 deaths.

 

[Tigers of Old]

Some welcome relief. Come on Victoria..

6 new, 0 deaths.

 

[Althom]

The Chief Health Officer, Brett Sutton, said the challenge in Victoria was "profoundly different from equivalent case numbers in any other jurisdiction of Australia".

He said many of the people infected in Victoria's second wave faced a challenging set of social circumstances.

"Through this second wave, the 20,000 cases that occurred across Victoria settled into the hardest cohorts and populations across the state, including in metropolitan Melbourne," he said.

Professor Sutton said while the average household in Victoria had 2.5 people, many of the households at the centre of clusters were much larger.

"We're thinking that, on average, the household sizes that we're following up are twice to three times that size," he said.

"That means more workplaces exposed, and it goes on exponentially. Those workplaces have people working there who have households that are two or three times the size of an average Victorian household.

"So, the number of close contacts per household, and the number of close contacts they have, is hugely different."
He pointed to Victoria's "challenges of casualised work, of cash-in-hand, of issues of visa status, issues of language and cultural barriers".


So does NSW not have a casualised workforce, a cash in hand economy or any non-english speakers? Surely they had some large households at the centres of some clusters? NSW had over 100 cases per days for 2 weeks straight? Surely they faced the same challenges we did at that point? But somehow managed to bring the numbers down without 10 weeks of Stage 4 restrictions? Not sure you can say don't compare jurisdictions, he makes it seem like we are on another planet.

So we are either really really really unlucky or we are managing it differently and what we are doing is not as effective as in NSW. I thought I did read that we had accepted some help/advice in regards contact tracing.

Would like some further explanations on what he means when he says "Through this second wave, the 20,000 cases that occurred across Victoria settled into the hardest cohorts and populations across the state."

NSW now has an outbreak in an area which has all the issues of "casualised work, of cash-in-hand, of issues of visa status, issues of language and cultural barriers" and dare I say it - a less than compliant population.

The comparison in how it plays out compared to Melbourne will be interesting,

 

[DavidSSS]

What gets me about that truck driver who went to Shepparton is that he was within the rules, didn't know he or a member of his family was infected. Then when contact tracing came to him he didn't take it seriously - forgot to mention that he went to Shepparton as well as Kilmore. Not really rule breaking or avoiding the question, just idiocy and a complete lack of regard for how serious this is. How could someone be so ignorant of the need for accurate contact tracing after 6 months of the pandemic?

Well, the cases below 10 for 2 days in a row is goo, here's what it looks like:



By the numbers:

Date	New Infections	7 Day Trailing ave	5 Day Centred ave	14 Day Trailing ave
8 October 2020	10	9.29	10.00	9.71
9 October 2020	14	10.00	11.80	9.86
10 October 2020	12	10.29	12.20	9.57
11 October 2020	14	11.14	11.60	10.21
12 October 2020	11	10.71	10.00	10.36
13 October 2020	7	11.00		10.14
14 October 2020	6	10.57		9.57

Looking a little better but we'll have to see if we can keep it below 10 for a few days at least.

6 cases today in NSW so it does keep rumbling along there.

DS

 

[larabee]

he was allowed to travel to regional areas as part of his work, but he was breaking the rules as he wasn't allowed to go to cafes, restaurants, shops etc while in the regional areas while on his working permit.

 

[TT33]

he was allowed to travel to regional areas as part of his work, but he was breaking the rules as he wasn't allowed to go to cafes, restaurants, shops etc while in the regional areas while on his working permit.

Is that due to ignorance, arrogance or stupidity. I wonder!!!

 

[Althom]

What gets me about that truck driver who went to Shepparton is that he was within the rules, didn't know he or a member of his family was infected. Then when contact tracing came to him he didn't take it seriously - forgot to mention that he went to Shepparton as well as Kilmore. Not really rule breaking or avoiding the question, just idiocy and a complete lack of regard for how serious this is. How could someone be so ignorant of the need for accurate contact tracing after 6 months of the pandemic?

Well, the cases below 10 for 2 days in a row is goo, here's what it looks like:

View attachment 10773

By the numbers:

Date	New Infections	7 Day Trailing ave	5 Day Centred ave	14 Day Trailing ave
8 October 2020	10	9.29	10.00	9.71
9 October 2020	14	10.00	11.80	9.86
10 October 2020	12	10.29	12.20	9.57
11 October 2020	14	11.14	11.60	10.21
12 October 2020	11	10.71	10.00	10.36
13 October 2020	7	11.00		10.14
14 October 2020	6	10.57		9.57

Looking a little better but we'll have to see if we can keep it below 10 for a few days at least.

6 cases today in NSW so it does keep rumbling along there.

DS

Forgot to mention?

 

[MD Jazz]

6 cases today in NSW so it does keep rumbling along there.

DS

Not sure what your point is. They have been "rumbling" along at around 10 cases a day for over 6 months now. Since 1st July they have had 942 cases in 107 days. Yet they have had no Stage 4 and reduced restrictions over that period. They had their spike post ruby princess, over 200 cases on some days. But within a few weeks they were down to single digits. And have remained there for well over 6 months. Management or luck?

 

[Althom]

Is that due to ignorance, arrogance or stupidity. I wonder!!!

Given he wasn't up front with the people from Contact Tracing I'm guessing a combination of all 3 plus maybe something he wanted to hide.

 

[Ian4]

Not sure what your point is. They have been "rumbling" along at around 10 cases a day for over 6 months now. Since 1st July they have had 942 cases in 107 days. Yet they have had no Stage 4 and reduced restrictions over that period. They had their spike post ruby princess, over 200 cases on some days. But within a few weeks they were down to single digits. And have remained there for well over 6 months. Management or luck?

probably a bit of both. when we peaked at 7,800 active cases in mid-august, NSW had 297 and were on the brink of a second wave, but were able to pull it back. they also had their own problems with quarantine with people disappearing (one went to newcastle from memory), but it didn't affect them as much as it did here.

 

[DavidSSS]

Not sure what your point is. They have been "rumbling" along at around 10 cases a day for over 6 months now. Since 1st July they have had 942 cases in 107 days. Yet they have had no Stage 4 and reduced restrictions over that period. They had their spike post ruby princess, over 200 cases on some days. But within a few weeks they were down to single digits. And have remained there for well over 6 months. Management or luck?

It's a point of comparison, because, you know, they are a state right next to us with a similar population in the same country.

What's your agenda?

DS

 

[Sintiger]

Not sure what your point is. They have been "rumbling" along at around 10 cases a day for over 6 months now. Since 1st July they have had 942 cases in 107 days. Yet they have had no Stage 4 and reduced restrictions over that period. They had their spike post ruby princess, over 200 cases on some days. But within a few weeks they were down to single digits. And have remained there for well over 6 months. Management or luck?

yes.

I can't remember the exact numbers but Victoria has something like 180 active cases atm and NSW has about 40 . That's the big difference still

 

[bigwow]

yes.

I can't remember the exact numbers but Victoria has something like 180 active cases atm and NSW has about 40 . That's the big difference still

175 v. 40, NSW had 11 new today, Vic had 6, all metro apparently, 2 reassigned from previous days. Positive test rate 0.03%.
Still think Vic needs to open up, but cautiously, still with masks, etc.

 

[MD Jazz]

probably a bit of both. when we peaked at 7,800 active cases in mid-august, NSW had 297 and were on the brink of a second wave, but were able to pull it back. they also had their own problems with quarantine with people disappearing (one went to newcastle from memory), but it didn't affect them as much as it did here.

Funny how their problems didn't result in 10 weeks of stage 4.

 

[IanG]

Funny how their problems didn't result in 10 weeks of stage 4.

We know the Vic contact tracing was initially completely inadequate as well as the whole public health setup.

 

[MD Jazz]

It's a point of comparison, because, you know, they are a state right nest to us with a similar population in the same country.

What's your agenda?

DS

No agenda, just thought you were trying to somehow say they are struggling like us. They've managed that case load for 6 months. They managed a rapid decline in weeks without severe restrictions. They've managed ongoing low numbers.

What faith should I have in the Vic gov't that they can keep the cases under control?

 

[MD Jazz]

We know the Vic contact tracing was initially completely inadequate as well as the whole public health setup.

So what confidence should we have now that they can manage this?