Interesting article on super spreading and the dispersal of the virus, why it spreads more widely in 1 area than other similar areas:
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IMPORTANT // Please look after your loved ones, yourself and be kind to others. If you are feeling that the world is too hard to handle there is always help - I implore you not to hesitate in contacting one of these wonderful organisations Lifeline and Beyond Blue ... and I'm sure reaching out to our PRE community we will find a way to help. T.
Coronavirus
- Thread starter Tigers of Old
- Start date
Good article, shows how much we still need to work out about this virus.
Following the numbers still has value though, so here we go.
By the numbers:
Unless the number is very low tomorrow all the averages will rise. We are clearly at a plateau, how we get the new infections down lower is a bit of a mystery.
DS
Following the numbers still has value though, so here we go.
By the numbers:
| Date | New Infections | 7 Day Trailing ave | 5 Day Centred ave | 14 Day Trailing ave |
| 6 October 2020 | 5 | 9.43 | 9.40 | 10.14 |
| 7 October 2020 | 9 | 8.71 | 10.60 | 10.00 |
| 8 October 2020 | 10 | 9.43 | 10.00 | 9.79 |
| 9 October 2020 | 14 | 10.14 | 9.93 | |
| 10 October 2020 | 12 | 10.43 | 9.64 |
Unless the number is very low tomorrow all the averages will rise. We are clearly at a plateau, how we get the new infections down lower is a bit of a mystery.
DS
COVID-19 virus can last for four weeks on surfaces, CSIRO study finds (paywalled)
Miles KempHerald Sun
October 12, 2020
The virus responsible for COVID-19 can survive on surfaces for up to 28 days – twice longer than initially thought.
It includes common surfaces such as bank notes, glass on mobile phone screens and stainless steel.
The CSIRO research replaces previous studies which found the virus could at most last 3-7 days, with the most dire predicting it lived for up to 14 days.
Most shocking, and likely to accelerate the end of the cash economy, the study found the virus active on banknotes after 21 days, during which time they may have circulated widely.
“Establishing how long the virus really remains viable on surfaces enables us to more accurately predict and mitigate its spread, and do a better job of protecting our people,” CSIRO chief executive Dr Larry Marshall, pictured, said.
“Together, we hope this suite of solutions from science will break down the barriers between us, and shift focus to dealing with specific virus hot spots so we can get the economy back on track.”
The study, published in the international journal Virology, will prompt warnings from the CSIRO to health experts and businesses dealing in large numbers of used bank notes.
The tests were carried out at the CSIRO Australian Centre for Disease Preparedness (ACDP) in Geelong.
They also found the virus survived longer at lower temperatures and tended to survive longer on non-porous or smooth surfaces such as glass, stainless steel and vinyl, compared to porous complex surfaces such as cotton.
ACDP deputy director Dr Debbie Eagles said the virus survived for up to 10 days longer than the flu virus.
“This reinforces the need for good practices such as regular handwashing and cleaning surfaces,” Dr Eagles said.
“At 20C, which is about room temperature, we found the virus was extremely robust, surviving for 28 days on smooth surfaces such as glass on mobile phone screens and plastic banknotes.
“For context, similar experiments for influenza A have found it survived on surfaces for 17 days, which highlights just how resilient SARS-CoV-2 is.”
SA Health advice states “studies suggest the virus that causes COVID-19 may survive on surfaces for a few hours or in rarer cases up to several days”.
I have been a supporter of the lockdown but to me we need loosening this weekend.
The thing that nags at me is why 5? It could just as easily be 8 or 10. It’s a number picked by the public health advisers.
This is where Andrews sometimes fails imo. He is well known for never backing down.
I think the public has had enough and we run a real risk that if we don’t open up to a fair degree people will do it anyway. It’s time to learn to live with the virus, accept we will have spot fires and get in with it.
The thing that nags at me is why 5? It could just as easily be 8 or 10. It’s a number picked by the public health advisers.
This is where Andrews sometimes fails imo. He is well known for never backing down.
I think the public has had enough and we run a real risk that if we don’t open up to a fair degree people will do it anyway. It’s time to learn to live with the virus, accept we will have spot fires and get in with it.
Everyone is over this lockdown but when cases start growing when we open up, don't complain. This virus is rampant in other countries. It'll happen here too.
Agree 100%. If it's managed well with excellent contact tracing we can open up some more and get the most affected people back to earning some sort of living.
Every other state in Australia has managed it very well. If NSW can do it so can Victoria; that is the state with similar population levels and density that we need to be compared to. Obviously it needs to be managed very well with excellent contact tracing. I guess that's the issue; maybe the authorities are not confident of their abilities.
We can do it if managed properly. The rest of Australia has proven that. Most other countries have handled it poorly and that's why it's running rampant. They're basically ignoring it and not putting steps in place to manage it properly. For example the UK appears to have pubs open with little restrictions other than 10pm closing. FFS what do they expect.
Yes I'm the same. 15 cases today but we can't keep going on like this. Its becoming increasingly clear we need to learn to live with it supported by well supported contact tracing resources to clamp down on clusters.
I absolutely understand that viewpoint but the reality is that those in those countries that it has started to run rampant again they were never at a level we are now in Victoria. Unless we have zero there is always risk.
I'm not advocating for total opening but an opening similar to what we have done in regional Victoria.
The really disturbing thing for me Ian is that I heard yesterday that up to 20% of those traced to have been in contact are refusing tests.
Do we make it an offence to refuse a test ? I would be in favour of that probably, certainly in the cases where an individual is identified by the tracing team as someone who has been in contact with a person in a known cluster.
Absolutely it should be an offence. Completely unacceptable behaviour. We should be setting up 28 day mandatory detention for people who are high risk and refuse tests. What have they got to hide or lose? If they don't have sick leave they will get paid $1500 by the Govt to stay at home for 14 days. No excuses.
FFS we are fining people $1600 for walking their dog in the open air without a mask but we baulk at mandatory testing for people that are close contacts? No wonder we can't get this thing under control. What a *smile* joke.
*smile* ridiculous isn't it, fined $1600 for the potential to spread the virus, actually spread the virus & zilch.
Fear of being branded racist ?
This is what Dan's proposed detention legislation was for. I understand the potential for it to turn into something sinister, but this is hardly a human rights issue. The rest of us have the right not to catch this sh!t.
I agree with the first bit but not the second, it has nothing to do with racism. You would be making the assumption that everyone who refuses a test is in some ethnic minority if you thought that and that assumption is wrong.
There are plenty of "anglo saxon whiteys" refusing tests as well. ( FYI I know some contact tracers personally)
The concern has always been that measures such as these would discourage people from coming forward and whilst I think that may be true in some cases we need to make it mandatory that when a test is requested it must be undertaken.
Will be interesting to see what comes of this. Dan Andrews will find it very difficult to distance himself from this resignation.
Lot's of issues and today's number is definitely not good.
It is so out of control overseas I do wonder how we end the current situation. Looks difficult.
The restrictions have always been a balancing act between the case numbers and spread, versus the compliance. You can't police compliance, you need voluntary compliance from the vast majority of the population. The issue with people refusing tests is that, if they test positive, they may get a government payment while off work, but they may never get their job back especially if it is casual. We need to have some sort of mandatory isolation for those who either refuse a test or test positive, but that won't work on its own - we also need employers to be compelled to re-employ someone who has to isolate. People in precarious employment have very good reason to fear being tested, there needs to be a safety net for them otherwise they will keep refusing.
Anyway, here is what it looks like today:
By the numbers:
All the averages are rising, we need some lower numbers!
DS
It is so out of control overseas I do wonder how we end the current situation. Looks difficult.
The restrictions have always been a balancing act between the case numbers and spread, versus the compliance. You can't police compliance, you need voluntary compliance from the vast majority of the population. The issue with people refusing tests is that, if they test positive, they may get a government payment while off work, but they may never get their job back especially if it is casual. We need to have some sort of mandatory isolation for those who either refuse a test or test positive, but that won't work on its own - we also need employers to be compelled to re-employ someone who has to isolate. People in precarious employment have very good reason to fear being tested, there needs to be a safety net for them otherwise they will keep refusing.
Anyway, here is what it looks like today:
By the numbers:
| Date | New Infections | 7 Day Trailing ave | 5 Day Centred ave | 14 Day Trailing ave |
| 7 October 2020 | 9 | 8.71 | 10.60 | 10.00 |
| 8 October 2020 | 10 | 9.43 | 10.00 | 9.79 |
| 9 October 2020 | 14 | 10.14 | 12.00 | 9.93 |
| 10 October 2020 | 12 | 10.43 | 9.64 | |
| 11 October 2020 | 15 | 11.43 | 10.36 |
All the averages are rising, we need some lower numbers!
DS
