Elimination, suppression, aggressive suppression?
Not easy questions to answer.
A couple of articles in The Age have been discussing this and it does show just how difficult this debate is:
The COVID-19 elimination bus is back on the road. Is elimination in feasible and, if so, should it be the national strategy?
www.theage.com.au
This was on July 14, and on July 15, although in today's hard copy version, we get this:
Australia's Deputy Chief Medical Officer writes that attempting to eradicate coronavirus is not only unrealistic, it is dangerous.
www.theage.com.au
I think the point about suppression, aggressive suppression and elimination being a continuum is a good one, and the fact that pursuing suppression does not rule out moving to elimination later is also valid.
But the reality is that both strategies have their flaws. How do you maintain elimination if the virus is still rampant outside Australia? Bear in mind too that Australia may be able to pursue this, but most countries have land borders and elimination is a whole lot more difficult. But suppression means periodic outbreaks, and either periodic shut downs or acceptance of casualties.
I have seen a few reports that immunity may not last long, bringing into question whether an effective vaccine can be found but also pointing to that finding an effective vaccine may take a long time. There are also reports of damage to internal organs of those who have caught this virus and possible long term health consequences - which would make periodic outbreaks a very risky prospect.
I'm sure many are working on what the best way forward is but this is a very difficult problem. Even if we succeed in suppressing or even eliminating the virus in Australia we are left with what to do about contact with the rest of the world. If we pursue suppression and accept periodic outbreaks we are left with the unknown of long term consequences of infection along with the casualties.
The first step has to be controlling the current spike and trying to prevent it moving around Australia, but what comes next is a quandary.
DS
PS: how do you get the article in a box like IanG did? I tried copying the code but it didn't work.