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IMPORTANT // Please look after your loved ones, yourself and be kind to others. If you are feeling that the world is too hard to handle there is always help - I implore you not to hesitate in contacting one of these wonderful organisations Lifeline and Beyond Blue ... and I'm sure reaching out to our PRE community we will find a way to help. T.
Coronavirus
- Thread starter Tigers of Old
- Start date
Case count excluding China/Diamond Princess (updated 10pm)
11,324 cases
179 deaths (1.58%)
256 severe (2%)
9,935 mild (88%)
954 recovered (8%)
76 countries now.
11,324 cases
179 deaths (1.58%)
256 severe (2%)
9,935 mild (88%)
954 recovered (8%)
76 countries now.
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Morrison seemed to hit the panic button last week when he activated an emergency plan to deal with the outbreak. This coincided with the Gold Coast beautician who was diagnosed with the virus after returning from Iran and serving 40 customers in her salon.
Shock death toll prediction as new Australian case emerges (paywalled)
*** Edit: link no longer works, article has been removed from circulation ***
John Rolfe, Tamsin Rose, Danielle Le Messurier, Clare Armstrong, Charles Miranda, Ondy Harvard
Herald Sun
March 3, 2020
A mild coronavirus pandemic would likely kill 21,000 Australians and more than 15 million people around the world, new research by a leading Australian economist predicts.
On top of this devastating human toll, former Reserve Bank of Australia board member Warwick McKibbin’s forecasts also show a harsh economic impact, with Australia’s gross domestic product reduced by at least two percentage points even in a low-severity global outbreak.
That equates to $US27 billion ($A42 billion) this year alone.
Professor McKibbin’s research, The Global Macroeconomic Impacts of COVID-19: Seven Scenarios, was published by the Washington-based Brookings Institution overnight Australian time.
A high-severity pandemic could leave 96,000 Australians dead and cause 68 million fatalities worldwide.
It comes as new border and biosecurity measures are being considered by the federal government as the coronavirus continues to spread.
Prime Minister Scott Morrison confirmed on Tuesday the government was working on stimulus measures in a bid to prop up the flatlining economy.
“We will keep looking at it each and every day,” he said.
Thirty four Australians have contracted the virus so far, 21 have recovered and one man has died.
More than 10,000 people have been tested in public labs.
Mr Morrison urged Australians to go about their usual business in a “calm manner” and not to stockpile supplies.
He spoke with Coles and Woolworths on Tuesday about shortages and supply chains.
“I would urge people to be going around their business in the usual manner,” Mr Morrison said.
“I’m pleased with the plans they have in place.
“There are some lines that will be more tested in the short term.”
The ACCC has been called in to help the major retailers work together.
He confirmed the National Security Committee would meet again this week to discuss what further measures could be taken to slow the spread of the virus.
Remote indigenous communities, aged care facilities and primary care facilities were being looked at closely as governments continue to plan for future outbreaks.
Ahead of the impending Reserve Bank interest rate decision, the Prime Minister urged the big four banks to pass on any cuts in full to their customers.
He compared that possible action to the assistance provided by Qantas in evacuating people from China and Japan.
“Qantas showed up,” the Prime Minister said.
“I would expect they (the banks) would do the right thing.
“The big banks would do their bit just like Qantas.”
Mr Morrison said the government was working though plans for an economic “boost” but would not be drawn on the details.
“This is not the same issue as the GFC,” he said.
“The economy is going to bounce back and Australia is going to bounce back.
“We are working to ensure the disruption... is minimised as much as possible.”
Health Minister Greg Hunt confirmed more than 90,000 cases had been confirmed world wide and more than 3000 people had died.
Following calls from the NSW government for people to stop shaking hands, chief medical officer Brendan Murphy said that was not required.
“There is no reason to change normal behaviours,” he said.
“There is no reason to panic.”
NEW AUSSIE CASE OF CORONAVIRUS
A 10th Queensland coronavirus case has been confirmed by state health authorities.
A 20-year-old man from China has been confirmed as having Covid-19.
The man, who had travelled to Dubai for at least two weeks before entering Australia, is in a stable condition in isolation in the Royal Brisbane and Women’s Hospital.
He was living in the Brisbane suburb of Toowong with a male housemate, who is now being assessed for the disease.
There are reports the man may be a university student, but authorities are yet to confirm this.
This lifts the number of confirmed cases in Australia to 34, while worldwide it has climbed to 90,000 infected and nearly 3100 dead (as at 12.30pm AEDT) including 78-year-old Perth man James Kwan.
It comes as Prime Minister Scott Morrison met with the bosses of Coles and Woolworths and urged Australians to stop panic buying.
“I appreciate their (Coles and Woolworths) response and the steps they are taking to assure people and their own customers,” he said.
“They would send the same message I am sending you today. It is important that people just go about their business and their normal processes in a calm manner.”
- - - - -
One of our restriction-dodging friends who was so desperate to study here that he put Australians at risk. Gets an 'F' from me.
*** Edit: link no longer works, article has been removed from circulation ***
John Rolfe, Tamsin Rose, Danielle Le Messurier, Clare Armstrong, Charles Miranda, Ondy Harvard
Herald Sun
March 3, 2020
A mild coronavirus pandemic would likely kill 21,000 Australians and more than 15 million people around the world, new research by a leading Australian economist predicts.
On top of this devastating human toll, former Reserve Bank of Australia board member Warwick McKibbin’s forecasts also show a harsh economic impact, with Australia’s gross domestic product reduced by at least two percentage points even in a low-severity global outbreak.
That equates to $US27 billion ($A42 billion) this year alone.
Professor McKibbin’s research, The Global Macroeconomic Impacts of COVID-19: Seven Scenarios, was published by the Washington-based Brookings Institution overnight Australian time.
A high-severity pandemic could leave 96,000 Australians dead and cause 68 million fatalities worldwide.
It comes as new border and biosecurity measures are being considered by the federal government as the coronavirus continues to spread.
Prime Minister Scott Morrison confirmed on Tuesday the government was working on stimulus measures in a bid to prop up the flatlining economy.
“We will keep looking at it each and every day,” he said.
Thirty four Australians have contracted the virus so far, 21 have recovered and one man has died.
More than 10,000 people have been tested in public labs.
Mr Morrison urged Australians to go about their usual business in a “calm manner” and not to stockpile supplies.
He spoke with Coles and Woolworths on Tuesday about shortages and supply chains.
“I would urge people to be going around their business in the usual manner,” Mr Morrison said.
“I’m pleased with the plans they have in place.
“There are some lines that will be more tested in the short term.”
The ACCC has been called in to help the major retailers work together.
He confirmed the National Security Committee would meet again this week to discuss what further measures could be taken to slow the spread of the virus.
Remote indigenous communities, aged care facilities and primary care facilities were being looked at closely as governments continue to plan for future outbreaks.
Ahead of the impending Reserve Bank interest rate decision, the Prime Minister urged the big four banks to pass on any cuts in full to their customers.
He compared that possible action to the assistance provided by Qantas in evacuating people from China and Japan.
“Qantas showed up,” the Prime Minister said.
“I would expect they (the banks) would do the right thing.
“The big banks would do their bit just like Qantas.”
Mr Morrison said the government was working though plans for an economic “boost” but would not be drawn on the details.
“This is not the same issue as the GFC,” he said.
“The economy is going to bounce back and Australia is going to bounce back.
“We are working to ensure the disruption... is minimised as much as possible.”
Health Minister Greg Hunt confirmed more than 90,000 cases had been confirmed world wide and more than 3000 people had died.
Following calls from the NSW government for people to stop shaking hands, chief medical officer Brendan Murphy said that was not required.
“There is no reason to change normal behaviours,” he said.
“There is no reason to panic.”
NEW AUSSIE CASE OF CORONAVIRUS
A 10th Queensland coronavirus case has been confirmed by state health authorities.
A 20-year-old man from China has been confirmed as having Covid-19.
The man, who had travelled to Dubai for at least two weeks before entering Australia, is in a stable condition in isolation in the Royal Brisbane and Women’s Hospital.
He was living in the Brisbane suburb of Toowong with a male housemate, who is now being assessed for the disease.
There are reports the man may be a university student, but authorities are yet to confirm this.
This lifts the number of confirmed cases in Australia to 34, while worldwide it has climbed to 90,000 infected and nearly 3100 dead (as at 12.30pm AEDT) including 78-year-old Perth man James Kwan.
It comes as Prime Minister Scott Morrison met with the bosses of Coles and Woolworths and urged Australians to stop panic buying.
“I appreciate their (Coles and Woolworths) response and the steps they are taking to assure people and their own customers,” he said.
“They would send the same message I am sending you today. It is important that people just go about their business and their normal processes in a calm manner.”
- - - - -
One of our restriction-dodging friends who was so desperate to study here that he put Australians at risk. Gets an 'F' from me.
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This is the problem isn't it? You can stop people coming directly from China but if they go elsewhere first, without much stricter incoming restrictions, how do you stop this situation from happening?
There were bound to be a few among the thousands allowed in. He's been here for 9 days and it's unlikely he's been cooped up in his bedroom the whole time. Fell ill 7 days ago and only tested positive today. Supposedly did his fortnight in Dubai which has no cases and suggests he caught it on the plane.
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Wow, what a way to spread panic.
At a 2% mortality rate, to generate 68m deaths, the world would need 3.4bn people to be infected!!
Even at the low end and 15m people, 750m people would need to be infected.
These sort of predictions are the type of thing that causes the sort of ridiculous panic buying that we are seeing.
Sure we need to be concerned, but the way the media has played this out is as if this is our time equivalent of the bubonic plague.
I don't have an opinion on the projections, but bear in mind we're in the very early stages.
We are but people / media need to also step back. China which is the main area at this stage is already seeing new infections dropping and that's within what 6 weeks or so of the outbreak. Other countries will see the same.
There is a massive difference between 100k people being infected and 3.4bn.
BTW I wasn't meaning you were spreading panic, more so the Herald Sun. These sort of articles are designed to spread panic so people will constantly buy the news to get their updates. Its irresponsible reporting, as its not even reporting, just one guys opinion with no information behind how he came up with the figures.
97.7% percent of deaths have been people over 60 years old. 80% over 70yo. Undoubtedly quite a few would have had other prevailing medical issues. 96,000 Australians dying would represent maybe 2% of all people aged over 60 in Australia. That would be a hefty number. Seems very doubtful. We should quarantine old people
. I stil lhave a few years to go.
No problem, you were clearly commenting on the article. FWIW three of the scenarios involve ~0 deaths outside China.
Full report here: https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/20200302_COVID19.pdf
Just had a quick scan. This model assumes EVERY person in the world is infected in Year 1. Wow.
Take a look at Australias figures.
S04 = 21000 @ 0.09% 23.3m
S06 = 96000 @0.4% = 24.0m (difference is likely to be in dp after 2 dp)
Its a very big jump to go from circa 100k cases in China for 1bn to saying that every single person in the world will be infected.
Maybe there's a critical point beyond which practically everyone will get it. It's certainly going to get a lot worse globally before the situation starts to improve.
*smile* Coroner virus can get stuffed, Mother Nature too if she's been having a dabble at evicting us old farts. I'm not goin till I'm good n ready n seen at least a couple more Tiger flags.I read yesterday that the mortality rate drops to about .2% for those under 50, and children are not developing anywhere near the severity of symptoms.
Has me wondering if this is Mother Nature's way of thinning out Boomers to help get some action on climate change.
Its more for me the poor reporting rather than the report itself. As the Herald Sun calls it "a mile pandemic" could kill 21k people in Australia and 15m worldwide. The thin is as soon as people hear that pandemic word uttered b the WHO, this becomes the base case in peoples minds and therefore will spread huge amounts of panic.
The report itself is filled with massive assumptions, for example India which I don't believe has a case yet has one of the highest mortality rates. They are assuming that this is due to poor health conditions, however no-one knows how this flu would react in those scenarios. We know the virus is attacking the older generations, and India is a country with a much lower average age. No-one knows the effect of poorer health conditions so without this sort of statement, this reporting is massively sensationalist.
It was produced for business so perhaps it should've been left in that realm. On the other hand I guess reporting it in the dailies conditions people to the possibilities. It's not really any different to Guy McPherson telling the public the world will end in ten years due to climate change, and probably a lot more grounded in fact. We're likely in for the long haul so initial panic will adjust to reality as things play out.
Panic buying of toilet paper...hmmm.
How quickly do people think this virus will spread into complete lockdown mode?
I suspect, without being an expert, that there will be supermarkets open next week in almost every city and town in Aus. And probably even with toilet paper for sale in April too.
The govt measures at the moment are aimed at resource management ie not overloading hospitals.
I cant see how this turns into a zombie apocalypse where no one can make it to woolies. At the very least coles express delivers to your door.
How quickly do people think this virus will spread into complete lockdown mode?
I suspect, without being an expert, that there will be supermarkets open next week in almost every city and town in Aus. And probably even with toilet paper for sale in April too.
The govt measures at the moment are aimed at resource management ie not overloading hospitals.
I cant see how this turns into a zombie apocalypse where no one can make it to woolies. At the very least coles express delivers to your door.
