At the end of the day, the AFL's list and salary cap rules dissuade clubs from keeping senior players on as depth players later in their careers. It's sad that equalisation measures incentivise clubs to push non-best 22 senior players out the door ASAP, but that's the reality. We will never know if Houli would've bounced back to play another 2-3 years of good football.
Professional athletes are often the last to accept their bodies are shot.
That's true.
People were saying Jack Riewoldt's body was shot 2 years ago though, so it's difficult to tell if a player over 30 has a temporary performance dip vs chronic performance decline.
The rules we operate under encourage us to be trigger happy, which is sad, but it's the reality unfortunately.
Who are we going to leave out of the back six so Houli can play on at 34?
Balta
Grimes
Vlastin
Broad
Stack
Rioli
Short
Mansell
Baker
Of the back 7, we can exclude the 4 KPPs/defensive mediums, as Houli's position isn't affected by them.
Our best 22 would include 3 of the following:
Stack
Rioli
Short
Mansell
Baker
Mid-year, I think it's been said we suggested to Houli that he might continue. Since then, Rioli and Stack emerged down back. I agree that both should be selected ahead of Houli in the backline moving forward. Also, we have Jack Dyer medallist Short as a non-discussion to be selected ahead of Houli. That's 3 of the 3 available best 22 spots filled by younger talents who should be able to match Houli's output, more or less.
After that, we also have Jack Titus Medallist Liam Baker as the next man in line for injury, followed by a competent player in reserve (but is a level below Houli's output). That would leave Houli firmly in the backup-in-case-of-injury category.
The only way Houli plays next year is if 2-3 of Rioli, Stack, Short, Mansell, or Baker get injured and/or play in other positions.
1. Baker is a fair chance to play midfield with Cotchin/Edwards/Lambert/Martin all over 30 and returning from injury.
2. Stack is most likely staying down back, but a great preseason could see him move into the midfield.
That would leave Rioli/Short/Mansell as our premiership defenders with nobody in reserve. But if we're committed to Dow/RCD/Ross types for next year's midfield, then Baker/Stack/Rioli/Short remain preferable down back, which pushes Houli out to about 2nd/3rd in reserve for his position. That would mean ultimately we're selecting Dow or RCD over Houli, with confidence in Mansell, which is a decision made with the future in mind.
In conclusion, the depth player argument is reasonable, but it also suggests the club is willing to take a chance on having a weaker/more vulnerable backline for next year's finals series. We're continuing to take a responsible, long-term approach to list management. With the rules we operate under, I can see why we made this decision, and I guess my frustration lies with the rules we operate under rather than the decision made by the club.