A Preseason Preview - Part 1 of 16 - Richmond

[DragicevicFan]

I look forward to your analysis of the Lions Phantom, it will be interesting to see how their list is looking for the coming seasons.

With Lynch, McRae and Hart gone, and White and Pike almost finished, along with the Scott brothers, McDonald and Voss with injury queries, it will be interesting to see where the replacements are coming from.

 

[Dallas]

Phantom, great Preview, you're the Eric Van of PRE (for all Son of Sam Horn fans).

On formatting can someone like Rosy (or some other internet/format guru) suggest a way to get the info in a table which would make comparitive reading slightly easier? Not a biggie but would be good.

It's pretty stark to see zero Mobile Key Position Players in their prime and only one (and that's Morrison) in the development category. That's bordering on criminal and is a legacy Greg Beck can be rightly un-proud of. It will be interesting to see how the best teams look in this area.

I think you're on the money with the "likely to run out of legs" theory for the current list. The good news is that Wallace is unlikely to let the Tigers go into a complete free fall and drop 6+ games on the trot, very few good coaches let even the worst of teams tailspin like we have in the last few years for months on end (who will forget Sheedy threatening to pull on the boots in his first year at Ess when they were careening out of control).

The domino effect of Stafford having a injury/suspension free year (or an injury/suspension plagued) year are massive; (1) he's a v good player when up and firing (2) he makes blokes walk a LOT taller (something we've only been missing for 20 years) (3) he frees up Knobel & Simmonds (not to mention Hall) to be forward and back as required.

Interesting to note that Knobel was 9th in AFL ruckman last year for ave hitouts (19.2) while playing 24 games. Stafford only played 11 games and averaged 13.6 (Ottens took the bulk of the work and averaged 23.6, 3rd in the AFL behind Everitt and Sandilands).

 

[pahoffm]

Phantom, great Preview, you're the Eric Van of PRE (for all Son of Sam Horn fans).

Many thanks. I'm flattered. I've read some of his views on the Red Sox. And I'm certainly flattered to be compared to someone whose e-mail address resides at Harvard University.
That's made my day, thanks.

 

[Tigers of Old]

Well done Phantom as usual. A great insight into the strengths and weaknesses of our list.
Unless you're really keen however I could care less about the other 15 teams.
Again great job.

 

[Joshnbeks Dad]

The lack of "development" and "prime" players is Frawley's legacy to the RFC.

 

[Dallas]

Phantom, i'd like to think Eric Van is monitoring your (and PRE) work!

With Clubs snapping up copies of 'Moneyball' (good book, but just annoyed me as i read it and thought about the horrible system for drafting we've had for the last 15 years) are we likely to see a move to some sort of SABR-like favoured system with AFL talent evaluation?

Where and how are the best recruiters in the AFL with stats and statistical evaluation?

Where's our Theo Epstein?

 

[Disco08]

Dallas, what I'd like to know is, if you know who Eric Van is, why tf aren't you talking Red Sox with us on the general board?? 

Also, if enough people want it, I'm more than happy to spend a few minutes formatting the text.

And wouldn't AFL be a very hard game to measure using sabremetrics? Baseball as a game is far more defineable in that regard I'd have thought.

 

[pahoffm]

Phantom, i'd like to think Eric Van is monitoring your (and PRE) work!

With Clubs snapping up copies of 'Moneyball' (good book, but just annoyed me as i read it and thought about the horrible system for drafting we've had for the last 15 years) are we likely to see a move to some sort of SABR-like favoured system with AFL talent evaluation?

Where and how are the best recruiters in the AFL with stats and statistical evaluation?

Where's our Theo Epstein?

Sorry Dallas but you've gone woosh. I don't follow baseball that closely. But I do promise to explore some of the points you've raised. Certainly a centralised body of research into Australian Rules football should be on the agenda at the AFL. I have heard of no such current body. Hopefully we have our Theo Epstein in a combination of Greg Miller and Steven Wright.

I follow American football, and have followed the Steelers for 30 years. They are certainly a great example how things can turn around at a club within a season without having to sack the coach. I'm just looking forward to enjoying the next few weeks as much as I've enjoyed this last regular season.

 

[Dallas]

Phantom, now my G-men are in off-season mode i'm happy to jump on the Steelers wagon, if only to please my boss who is, like you, long suffering.

Theo Epstein = 30 y/o (yes 30) GM of the Boston Red Sox who in his 2nd year engineered the Red Sox WS win.

 

[pahoffm]

Yes, it's what I've always believed. We reach our mental and physical peak at 26yo, then it's a slow decline from there.

Physically
Alexander the Great, past his peak when he died at 32.

Intellectually
Albert Einstein, everyone remembers him as the greying old man who arrived in America in the 30s, but he completed his Theory of Relativity in 1905 in his early 20s.

Democratically
William Pitt the Younger, elected Prime Minister of Great Britain at age 26. Arguably Britain's greatest Prime Minister. He served during the Napoleonic Wars. Died in office about 42yo.

 

[Dallas]

William Pitt the Younger! Huge call. I thought he was just going to be a battling back pocket but his last three years on the ball were outstanding.

If you haven't read 'Moneyball' you should get it ASAP as it is very relevant to the Tigers, the general theme being the emergence of stats based evaluation method in baseball replacing the age-old '5 tool' evaluation method.

In AFL terms it's about questioning how things are done and not accepting "because we've always done them that way" as an answer (sound familiar?).

 

[pahoffm]

William Pitt the Younger! Huge call. I thought he was just going to be a battling back pocket but his last three years on the ball were outstanding.

If you haven't read 'Moneyball' you should get it ASAP as it is very relevant to the Tigers, the general theme being the emergence of stats based evaluation method in baseball replacing the age-old '5 tool' evaluation method.

In AFL terms it's about questioning how things are done and not accepting "because we've always done them that way" as an answer (sound familiar?).

I did say arguably.

A few months ago I made the point about the newly found proliferation of websites containing free statistical material on AFL football.

Some of the ones I refer to are:

http://stats.rleague.com/afl/afl_index.html
http://www.prowess.com.au/pro-stats/
http://svc227.bne117v.server-web.com/tac/tac_results.htm

I just wonder how many clubs make full use of the free stats that are available as opposed to those who take the easy option of merely purchasing already processed stuff from say Champion Data.

But thankfully the availability of all types of data is most of the reason that we don't have Mr Beck any more.

 

[Roar34]

Ah, shoot! I was doing fine while I was reading about RFC but all that Yankee talk threw me off.

I think I was going to suggest that TW might have a different role for Rodan. Yep, it was something to do with comparing him to Libba - or the way Terry had him playing.

Any thoughts?

 

[Rosy]

A few months ago I made the point about the newly found proliferation of websites containing free statistical material on AFL football.

Some of the ones I refer to are:

http://stats.rleague.com/afl/afl_index.html
http://www.prowess.com.au/pro-stats/
http://svc227.bne117v.server-web.com/tac/tac_results.htm

Another good one.

http://www.fudgemond.org/fcharts/home

 

[dmx]

Ah, shoot!  I was doing fine while I was reading about RFC but all that Yankee talk threw me off.

I think I was going to suggest that TW might have a different role for Rodan.  Yep, it was something to do with comparing him to Libba - or the way Terry had him playing.

Any thoughts?

i would be betting that the Libba thing is not going to be Rodos domain.
With his low center of gravity, his not as yet, fully tapped party tricks, as we witnessed when he snapped a couple of absolute beauties, and add his explosiveness over the first 3-4 ms, TW is going to set him up front and square to the big boys in the FW50, and job done.

 

[pahoffm]

[quote author=Dallas A few months ago I made the point about the newly found proliferation of websites containing free statistical material on AFL football.

Some of the ones I refer to are:

http://stats.rleague.com/afl/afl_index.html
http://www.prowess.com.au/pro-stats/
http://svc227.bne117v.server-web.com/tac/tac_results.htm

Another good one.

http://www.fudgemond.org/fcharts/home

Yes Rosy,
I've seen fudges when you recommended it last time. The graphs are great. I believe that the site needs to have more depth in its stats to be useful for an AFL club. But certainly good for club supporters.

 

[Dallas]

Thanks Phantom & Rosy for the sites. Good bedtime reading.

 

[Roar34]

i would be betting that the Libba thing is not going to be Rodos domain.
With his low center of gravity, his not as yet, fully tapped party tricks, as we witnessed when he snapped a couple of absolute beauties, and add his explosiveness over the first 3-4 ms, TW is going to set him up front and square to the big boys in the FW50, and job done.

After reading DiscoStu's post over in the 'training' thread, you could be spot on, dmx. I was going on his last couple of years where he seemed to be going off the boil, but seems he's even kicking lefties!

And, from the sound of it, with him and Kraks training up forward, TW is considering something else for them. That said, I reckon we would want 30 goals each from them for the season - or at least 50 between them.

 

[Anduril]

Thanks Phanto!
Bring on the Gandalf Cup

 

[crackertiger]

I think you will see Rodan and Krak changing as first rover and forward pocket.