A Preseason Preview - Part 1 of 16 - Richmond

[pahoffm]

Hi all,
Now that the various drafts are over and all clubs have secured their lists, I intend to look at each one of the lists to see how each stack up. Starting from the bottom my first will be the Tigers, slowly working my way through all the teams up to Port Adelaide. The Tigers will probably be my most indepth as it is the club I know most about. Already I've noticed some strange happenings or skews on some teams' lists. Also please excuse some of the formatting again. It is difficult to cut and paste a word document containing tables onto this message board. Anyway heregoes.

Richmond – Tigers rebuild, but there’s some way to go.

The Tigers have seemingly got themselves back on course in 2005. Yet this statement will become more credible once the team actually starts to perform consistently on the field. A new coach in Terry Wallace. New assistants in Brian Royal, David King and Steve Alessio. Wheadon has been retained but in a new role. The list has also been revised to include 10 new players on the senior list, on top of the addition of 9 or 10 last year, depending on how you deem Moore’s movement onto the senior list.

Surname Ht Wt Age
Stafford 203 105 30
Knobel 202 102 25 New
Pattison 198 90 19 New
Richardson196 105 30
Simmonds196 97 27 New
Hall 196 97 24
Archibald 194 91 19
Gaspar 193 90 29
Morrison 193 90 24
Schulz 193 92 20
McGuane 192 77 18 New
Limbach 192 77 17 New
Thursfield191 76 19 Rookie
Graham 190 90 32 New
Kellaway 190 90 29
Moore 190 86 21
Campbell 189 88 32
Bowden 188 90 27
Tuck 188 89 23
Deledio 188 81 18 New
Coughlan 187 88 23
Jackson 187 87 19
Polo 187 78 18 New
Johnson 186 86 27
Hilton 186 90 26
Tivendale 186 86 26
Pettifer 184 84 23
Hyde 184 84 22
Gilmour 184 77 19
Roach 184 78 19
Brown 183 80 27
Newman 183 84 23
Meyer 183 70 18 New
Raines 181 76 19
Tambling 181 74 18 New
Chaffey 180 82 28
Hartigan 180 74 20
Foley 177 71 20 Rookie
Krakouer 174 77 22
Rodan 171 82 21

To get a better analysis of the entire Tiger list let’s look at the spread of their players.
Twilight = 28+yo
Prime = 25-27yo
Development = 22-24yo
Junior = 18-21yo

<180 Small Runners
Twilight: 0
Prime: 0
Development: Krakouer 22,
Junior: Rodan 21, Foley 20,

180-184 Smaller Mediums
Twilight: Chaffey 28
Prime: Brown 27,
Development: Pettifer 23, Newman 23, Hyde 22,
Junior: Hartigan 20, Gilmour 19, Roach 19, Meyer 18, Raines 18, Tambling 18,

185-189 Taller Mediums
Twilight: Campbell 32
Prime: Bowden 27, Johnson 27, Hilton 26, Tivendale 26,
Development: Tuck 23, Coughlan 23,
Junior: Jackson 19, Deledio 18, Polo 18,

190-194 Mobile Key Position
Twilight: Graham 32, Gaspar 29, Kellaway 29
Prime: 0
Development: Morrison 24,
Junior: Moore 21, Schulz 20, Archibald 19, Thursfield 19, McGuane 18, Limbach 17,

195-199 Key Position/ Ruck
Twilight: Richardson 30
Prime: Simmonds 27,
Development: Hall 24,
Junior: Pattison 19,

200+ Ruck
Twilight: Stafford 30
Prime: Knobel 25,
Development: 0
Junior: 0

The previous list gives a spread of the reasonable distribution of a playing list over its varying ages and heights. It gives an indication of the evolution and development of a football list and where potential weaknesses exist. We will use this list to analyse other teams as well. The ages of these players are based on what age, I believe, they will be for most of the 2005 season.

From the spread you can see that tends to be 2 main groups at Tigerland. The first group is either in the twilight phase of their careers, 28yo+, or just about to move into the twilight phase, 27yo. The second group is in the junior phase of their careers, equal to or less than 21yo. The area in between, the development and prime age groups, ie 22-27yo, looks thin. This is especially evident in the area of prime age running players. The tigers will be forced to play boys from the junior group to make up for their dearth in prime runners and mobile key position players.

Another device to analyse is putting down the list in team order to see how many or what positions can be covered when injuries occur.

B: Chaffey 28 Gaspar 29 Kellaway 29
  Newman 23 Hall 24   Moore 20
                Thursfield19

HB: Bowden 27 Graham 32 Hyde 22
      Hilton 26 Schulz 20 Polo 18
              McGuane 18

C: Jackson 19 Coughlan 23 Tivendale 26
Deledio 18 Hartigan 20 Tuck 23

HF: Campbell 32 Simmonds27 Pettifer 23
Roach 19 Morrison 24 Raines 18
Meyer 18 Pattison 19

F: Stafford 30 Richardson30 Krakouer 22
Archibald 19 Limbach 17 Rodan 21

R: Knobel 25 Johnson 27 Brown 27
           Tambling 18 Foley 20
    Gilmour 19

The back half looks reasonably covered for injury. However once you move onto the centre line, the forward half and the ruck it is quite clear that there is a definite lack of experience if the team is tested by injuries to its front line players.

Conclusion:
Using history as a predicting tool, the last time Tigerland went through such a big turnover of players was the 1992/1993 seasons. In 1993, John Northey took over the reins and drastically reformed the playing list. New names such as Duncan Kellaway, Jamie Tape, Matthew Richardson, Matthew Rogers and others were given a try. Some succeeded, others didn’t.
In 1993 the Tigers had a big Pre-season making, but losing by 10 points to Essendon, the Final of the Wizrad Cup equivalent. However the length of the season proper found them out. Already in late 2004 the Tigers, under Wallace, have been training very intensely. I predict that they will come out of the blocks with the same intensity, but the length of the season proper will find old legs, and some inexperienced ones, out.

( Edit: I would be grateful for your honest comments re this analysis, either in style, content or accuracy.)

 

[dmx]

I am interested in your rating of Cogga as a dev player, along with D-Rod as a jnr. Phanto.

Of course the injuries to Cogga might have stalled his rise into the "prime" category, but i still think he is in that category.

As for D-Rod, wouldnt you think he was in the same category as Krak?

 

[sucker4richond]

looking at the spread of players in type and age. its great to see so many young smalls which we all know we had. but the frightening trend is our ageing talls and lack of junior and developemental rucks/talls.

national draft 2005 look out

 

[hopper]

A good read phanto. Well done. Can't say I'll read your next 15 additions in as much detail though.

Your work does highlight what I had suspected was a deficiency in young talls coming through. However, well before this thread, I had heard TW and GM were well aware of this. Their plan was apparently to take the best midfielders available in this draft, and then look for KPPs in 2005. There is a whisper the KPPs lining up for 2005 draft are of a slightly better standard. They viewed Roughead and Franklin as speculative high picks compared to other drafts (eg, Riewoldt & Koschitszke). What's your take on this one, phanto?

 

[sucker4richond]

dmx, although wrong seeing d-rod is entering his 4th season he is classing them by age not experiance.

not entirely accurate but a good guide

 

[gargs81]

I am interested in your rating of Cogga as a dev player, along with D-Rod as a jnr. Phanto.

Of course the injuries to Cogga might have stalled his rise into the "prime" category, but i still think he is in that category.

As for D-Rod, wouldnt you think he was in the same category as Krak?

DMX, i think you misunderstood the meaing of the catergories Phanto had the players in, they aren't based on how good the player is, it's based on the age of the player!!!

Rodan is youger than Krak and is still 21, therefore he is in the Junior stage. Cogs isn't able to be in Prime due to not being 25 yet!!!

 

[hopper]

Rodan definitely deserves more time to establish a career.  It could easily be argued that he was rushed into the team as a kid (and only a pick 33 from memory) as some sort of midfield revolutionary.  This robbed him of the chance to play for Coburg and refine those skills.  Only the very best young kids can pull that off, and while I still rate his worth, he ain't top shelf.  I'm quietly confident that he can catch up to where he should be this season under the appropriate guidance and coaching.  Royal could just be exactly what he's been looking for even more than TW.

 

[Rosy]

Using history as a predicting tool, the last time Tigerland went through such a big turnover of players was the 1992/1993 seasons......In 1993 the Tigers had a big Pre-season making, but losing by 10 points to Essendon, the Final of the Wizrad Cup equivalent. However the length of the season proper found them out. Already in late 2004 the Tigers, under Wallace, have been training very intensely. I predict that they will come out of the blocks with the same intensity, but the length of the season proper will find old legs, and some inexperienced ones, out.

Interesting report thanks Phantom.  

How relevant do you think 1993 history is to 2005 football?  I'd think that training and fitness management would have improved dramatically in 12 years.

Depth is something we've lacked for too long.  The more players we have to share the load should in theory increase their chances of making it through the season.  Depth is also needed to keep the players hungry.  There's nothing like a lineup pushing for a spot to keep players honest (assuming the coach is willing to drop anyone who isn't putting in 100%)

Seeing we do lack depth I see injury as a major enemy.  If we can keep all our players fit we'll obviously go further.

It's good to have 3 experienced ruckmen to add options.  A big change from when Royce Vardy was our only option (even though he filled in well in an unfamiliar role)
 
There was no one to protect the young kids last season.  We need our more experienced players to stand up for them.

Hopefully some of the young guys will be up to the rigours of senior football despite their youth.  I wouldn't be surprised to see someone like Jacko play an important role every week.

Those with immature bodies might be different but they can be managed to benefit the team.  Full games at Coburg would be better than weeks on the senior bench for minimal game time.  By the end of the season when you assume we'll be running out of legs they might be ready to come in and add some freshness to the team.

Then there's the unknown quantity of the experience our kids have had at a young age.  Andrew Raines is one player who came along miles ahead of schedule.  By the end of the season he could well be ready to play out full senior games.

I also rate pride and passion.  I honestly believe our players could have done a lot better than they have in recent years.  I think they'll be out to make amends and the new coaching regime will hopefully help them achieve it.

If injuries stay away, and with better coaching and player management, we might be able to create new history.

Go Tiges.

 

[pahoffm]

I am interested in your rating of Cogga as a dev player, along with D-Rod as a jnr. Phanto.

Of course the injuries to Cogga might have stalled his rise into the "prime" category, but i still think he is in that category.

As for D-Rod, wouldnt you think he was in the same category as Krak?

Those ratings are based on age range. Coughlan had a great year in 2003 but it was his first big year. In fact although he shows all the hallmarks of being a very good player, it was his first full season. Too much was put on a then 21yo kid to perform at a level that his body had not been fully developed to do. Cogga still needs proper 2nd & 3rd year developments to become a prime player.

There's a year difference between Krakouer & Rodan. Krakouer started a year earlier than Rodan, although many Tigers just group them together. Again, it's an age division thing, next year Rodan goes into the same development group as Krakouer. At AFL level the difference between a 21 & a 22yo can be crucial. Foley is 20yo in 2005, just a year younger than Rodan, yet we do not group Foley & Rodan together.
Remember Frawley brought blokes like Krakouer, Rodan, Hartigan & Roach in far too early, before they'd even mastered playing 2nds football. This is alot of the reason why Krakouer & Rodan haven't developed as well as they might have.

Rodan definitely deserves more time to establish a career.  It could easily be argued that he was rushed into the team as a kid (and only a pick 33 from memory) as some sort of midfield revolutionary.  This robbed him of the chance to play for Coburg and refine those skills.  Only the very best young kids can pull that off, and while I still rate his worth, he ain't top shelf.  I'm quietly confident that he can catch up to where he should be this season under the appropriate guidance and coaching.  Royal could just be exactly what he's been looking for even more than TW.

2003 was definitely the worst year for kpps. Kepler Bradley was probably the only quality tall that year.
2004 was definitely an improvement on 2003. I believe Roughead is the real deal. He performed extremely well both in terms of possies and goals, even though the Gippsland midfield was probably the worst of the TAC final sides. Franklin was more speculative as there wasn't alot to go on as far as consistancy of performance. In 2004 there were many other decent kpps who made it or didn't, that's old ground.
Really won't be able to fully judge 2005 until that lot go through the same KPIs, ie the TAC season (and other states equivalents) and the carnival.

How relevant do you think 1993 history is to 2005 football? I'd think that training and fitness management would have improved dramatically in 12 years.

Certainly alot of new methods have developed since 1993, but some rules or cycles remain constant over time. On any subject, social, financial, etc we look for cycles in order to predict. The '93 season is the nearest I can find in Tiger history that compares with what 2005 might be. It seems to have re same traits, new coach, major overhaul of the playing list.

 

[hopper]

Remember Frawley brought blokes like Krakouer, Rodan, Hartigan & Roach in far too early, before they'd even mastered playing 2nds football. This is alot of the reason why Krakouer & Rodan haven't developed as well as they might have.

Phanto, would this perhaps be why many see Raines as now looking like pushing past some of these guys?

 

[RemoteTiger]

Great work Phantom!

We are surmising that players will play in positions that we are used to seeing them play in - Terry Wallace will spring a few surprises here IMO. Both early in the season and as the season progresses, like the half-forward line is being touted as Richardson’s next position.

Knowing the previous lateral thinking ability of Terry Wallace we could finish up with 4, 5, or 6 players in the forward line which do not hold down any of the traditional positions but all have roaming type roles. Who knows the man is a magician and could pull anything out of the hat.

The severe intensity of the Tigers pre-season training can be interpreted as Terry letting all at Richmond know that hard work is required to win premierships – this will create a work ethic that will set us up for years to come. It also (as you point out) could be a problem late in the 2005 season with old and young legs being found out.

However as Rosy states - the pride and passion of the players is an underestimated quality - add that to a strong work ethic and the sky is the limit over the next few seasons!

Unlike a few on PRE I see players from last years team improving dramatically under the guidance of Terry and Co. Players like Chaffey, Gaspar, Kellaway, Hall, Newman, Hyde, Hilton, Tivendale, Hartigan, Pettifer, Morrison, Krakouer, Rodan, Archibald etc. Add to that the likes of Coghlan, Brown, Graham, Stafford, Campbell, Simmonds, Knobel and Richardson. Then throw in some sparkling youth being rotated through the team to gain experience and then the final ingredient of a clever and cunning Coaches box and the 2005 Richmond season becomes an intriguing chapter in the history of our club.

As with all teams injuries will play a role during the season – your coverage of each position is great and shows the depth we have and where the “holes” could appear. Particularly where the age of the backup players is young. Personally, I feel *smile* is more a forward type of player through the way he moves (Terry may play him in the backline to get experience) and Morrison is more a back man. Campbell maybe too slow for a flank but perfect for a pocket.

But Terry has his finger on the pulse and his plans for the team as a whole and each player individually - all will be revealed during the season.

All this "second-guessing" and speculation certainly adds excitement to the pre-season. I hate wishing my life away but wish it was April already and the season was well under way.....

 

[gargs81]

Phanto, i dont think that Krak or Rodan were brought in too early.

Krak didn't establish himself as a permanent senior player until late 2002-early 2003. He was in and out of the seniors in 2001 & 2002.

Rodan, played all games in 2002 and did exceptionally well, he hasn't really stepped up to the next level since then.

I disagree that they were put in the system too early. You can play seniors and be developed at training during that time. Thats where the coaching staff went wrong, because that didnt happen.

 

[DragicevicFan]

Phanto, i dont think that Krak or Rodan were brought in too early.

Krak didn't establish himself as a permanent senior player until late 2002-early 2003. He was in and out of the seniors in 2001 & 2002.

Rodan, played all games in 2002 and did exceptionally well, he hasn't really stepped up to the next level since then.

I disagree that they were put in the system too early. You can play seniors and be developed at training during that time. Thats where the coaching staff went wrong, because that didnt happen.

Rodan played well in patches during 2002, but toward the end of that season he spent alot of time on the bench, as he did during 2003.

He should have spent around half of each of these seasons playing at Coburg, but because our list was so bad, there was no pressure for spots in the team, and even without any real form, he was able to hold his place for two full seasons.

 

[pahoffm]

Phanto, i dont think that Krak or Rodan were brought in too early.

Krak didn't establish himself as a permanent senior player until late 2002-early 2003. He was in and out of the seniors in 2001 & 2002.

Rodan, played all games in 2002 and did exceptionally well, he hasn't really stepped up to the next level since then.

I disagree that they were put in the system too early. You can play seniors and be developed at training during that time. Thats where the coaching staff went wrong, because that didnt happen.

Fair enough. I disagree to the extent that when players are thrown in too early and they find it difficult to cope, it restricts their development. Rodan played a full season in 2002, but was he really ready to play senior football that season. Wizard Cup in 2002, yes, to get a feel for senior footy. Then he should have been dropped back to the seconds to get a 300+ possie & 30+ goal season as a first rover. And with greater junior achievement then coped better in the seniors. I hope we don't make the same mistake with Tambling.

 

[junior]

A good report and analysis, phantom.

 

[mb64]

A good report and analysis, phantom.

Agree.Send it to Richmond.

 

[evo]

Their plan was apparently to take the best midfielders available in this draft, and then look for KPPs in 2005.  There is a whisper the KPPs lining up for 2005 draft are of a slightly better standard.  They viewed Roughead and Franklin as speculative high picks compared to other drafts (eg, Riewoldt & Koschitszke).  What's your take on this one, phanto?

I never actually saw Wallace or Miller state this publicly.Did you hear it on the grapevine?If it's true,then good, I agree with them.I said before the draft it was essential we use our good picks on real quality midfielders.I'm rapt that they did.I didn't think Roughhead was  a"worthy" top4 although I'm the 1st to admit I m no expert.

We definately need a few  development KPP but the nature of football is you don't need as many of them as midfielders.We were deficient in all departments.Having drafted midfielders we have a good base to work with now.The next draft we should concentrate in finding a reiwoldt and  cornes types.

Another draft like the one just passed and we are well on the way to building a good side.

 

[Tigerfan]

very interesting work there Phantom, well done.

We don't have too many in there prime but once the last two drafts develop we'll have some quality midfield running power: that's for sure.

Another interesting indicator is age.
Here's a team with our oldest 22 players in it

Kellaway Gaspar Chaffey
Newman Hall Bowden
Tivvers  Coughlan Hilton
Morrison Simmo Cambo
Brown Richo Pettifer
Stafford Johnson Krak'r
Knoble Hyde Graham Tuck

Leaving these guys at Coburg (Ist and 2nd year players not in bold)

Hartigan, Arch Moore
Jackson  Thursfield Polo
Roach Raines Meyer
Rodan McGuane Gilmour
Foley Schulz Limbach
Pattison Deledio Tambling  

That first team will probably never play together anyway but it's just an exercise to guage how much padding (2 players: Rodan and Schulz) there is between the senior players and the development guys(1st year/2nd year)

Flaw: This is a very age-relative model that doesn't consider that players such Deledio, Raines, Jackson, Tambling might increase depth by having an immediate impact at the top level.

 

[hopper]

Their plan was apparently to take the best midfielders available in this draft, and then look for KPPs in 2005. There is a whisper the KPPs lining up for 2005 draft are of a slightly better standard. They viewed Roughead and Franklin as speculative high picks compared to other drafts (eg, Riewoldt & Koschitszke). What's your take on this one, phanto?

I never actually saw Wallace or Miller state this publicly.Did you hear it on the grapevine?If it's true,then good, I agree with them.I said before the draft it was essential we use our good picks on real quality midfielders.I'm rapt that they did.I didn't think Roughhead was a"worthy" top4 although I'm the 1st to admit I m no expert.

We definately need a few development KPP but the nature of football is you don't need as many of them as midfielders.We were deficient in all departments.Having drafted midfielders we have a good base to work with now.The next draft we should concentrate in finding a reiwoldt and cornes types.

Another draft like the one just passed and we are well on the way to building a good side.

evo, it was a grapevine thing so its reliablity is open to challenge. I heard it through a friend of a recently retired RFC player. It made sense to me when I heard it though, and was reflected in our drafting decisions.

 

[pahoffm]

Flaw: This is a very age-relative model that doesn't consider that players such Deledio, Raines, Jackson, Tambling might increase depth by having an immediate impact at the top level.

I don't see this as a flaw. Planning is something that has been absent at Tigerland for some time. I first put the spread in a similar but not same format to Greg 2 years ago. He was familiar with a similar style from his days at North. We've worked on a spread format since. Unfortunately as some on PRE have seen it doesn't format well when cut and pasted in its original condition onto this message board.

It is a way to make sure that in years to come there aren't too many of the same type or aged player. That there are always replacements at various levels coming through.