Percentage will block the Saints
By JACK DYER (Truth)
Who will miss the finals? Now, it's guess work, but I'll stick my neck out and say again that the unlucky side will be St Kilda. For the sake of the Tigers I hope I'm right.
How would you like to be one of the top five coaches? I know how little sleep they are getting these days.
I've put Carlton and Richmond safely in the four, because only a tragedy could put Richmond out, and nothing can remove the Blues.
Here are the games ahead [home games in capitals]:
CARLTON: (50 points, 129.1) to play ST KILDA, Collingwood, SOUTH.
RICHMOND: (48 points, 140.2) to play Hawthorn, ST KILDA, Geelong.
GEELONG: (44 points, 117.9) to play ESSENDON, South, RICHMOND.
COLLINGWOOD: (40 points, 133.3) South, CARLTON, St Kilda.
ST KILDA: (40 points, 126.7) Carlton, Richmond, COLLINGWOOD.
On form Carlton will win only one game, against South. So, that puts them on 54 points.
I expect Richmond to win all their remaining games, but to be scrupulously fair, I'll allow a defeat at Geelong. I expect the Tigers to beat St Kilda on the MCG next week. That gives the Tigers 56 points.
I allow Geelong two wins, although they may win only one. The odds slightly favor two wins to give them 52 points.
Collingwood should win two more - the next two - and that gives them 48 points.
And allowing for a Richmond victory, I tip two more wins for St Kilda, which gives them 48 points. This means the Saints can drop a match and make the four if they can build up their percentage.
But can they?
Carlton's defence has been tight this season and it seems the Saints will have to be content with a two or three-goal win.
St Kilda are the equivalent of almost eight goals behind the Magpies, and this week, if Collingwood cut loose against South, the leeway could be increased to a dozen or more goals.
And next week I expect the Magpies to topple Carlton, and Richmond to beat the Saints. So that would increase the goal gap.
Which means, if things go the way I predict, St Kilda will have to beat Collingwood by six or seven goals in the last match to take their place in the four. Quite a task.
But one other thought.
If Carlton lose their next two as I predict they will, and the Magpies and Saints win, Carlton will go into the last round only two points ahead of the fifth team.
Now should South happen to beat Carlton, not an impossibility on Carlton's present form, the Blues would miss the four if Collingwood and St Kilda play a draw.
Nothing is impossible this season.
But the way I see the ladder, in order of percentages, is:
Richmond 56, Carlton 54, Geelong 52, Collingwood 48, St Kilda 48.