Chin up folks.
I get it, the hounds are at the door. We just got owned by a team we usually use as a gym session for early season lethargy. Anzac Day Eve was a very disappointing loss - you could see it in Dimma's face afterwards. Melbourne asserted themselves and we had no answer. It was so un-Richmond that most of us were left with a vaguely queasy feeling in the gut. What if this is it? The beginning of the downward slope?
Already, celebrated doyens in the media landscape have all but written us off. Galaxies of tactical experts are frothing at the idea of someone - anyone - usurping the throne. 1954 all over again, they say. A Melbourne-Footscray throwback to a bygone era.
We are losing stars at a rapid rate and those already on the sidelines keep being pushed back. Some prime movers are rusty and others are flat out of form. The kids aren't showing much. The VFL cupboard looks threadbare. Worst of all, our talisman, our hero has concussion and will be nursing his foot when we front up to an undefeated challenger.
Year after year the king of the jungle finds it harder to succeed. 17 other teams have dissected how we play from every conceivable angle. 17 other teams have teased fringe and depth players free as we circle the wagons around the core stars. 17 other teams have poached elite coaching talent we cannot possibly retain within a compromised soft cap. Moreover, every player on the list with a premiership medal must find it within himself to go again. To go with the fanaticism that is necessary to cow belligerent challengers for the crown.
The AFL are not benign patrons for the champ. There are marquee fixtures to arrange, prime time spotlights to fire up. The best teams from years past are lined up in a death gallery, chomping at the bit to bring us down. Meanwhile the worst teams are gifted home games against us, allowing us precious little respite between the brutal blockbusters.
Everyone wants to bring the king down. Once blood is spilled, a frenzy of malicious intent follows. Such is the way of AFL football.
But there are seeds of hope to be found. Maurice Rioli Junior lurks in the emergencies like a deadly dancer waiting to strike. Callum Coleman-Jones looms as the One to bring balance to a sputtering, impermeable forward 50. The attacking zone is where 17 other teams are eying our demise. It makes perfect sense when you think about it. You can't do much about our pressure, our ability to hunt and strip the ball at will. But you *can* squeeze our forward structure, make it difficult for us to plant a flag and keep the ball where we like it to be.
We like to cheat a forward structure, you see. We play -1 down there, sometimes -2 or -3. This is how we look like we have men everywhere in defence and on the outside of packs. The forward line is filled by insanely hard runners in Lambert, Rioli, Castagna, Aarts and McIntosh. Often Jack and Tom are simply required to fight and scrag until the "rest" of the forward line arrives. When we are truly on song, when Nank and Soldo can run a supreme tandem and we win first use more often than not, our forwards can stay at home and provide marking / crumbing / pressure options galore.
This isn't happening at the moment. Opposition teams have gone to work on us and know they can launch their own counters from D50. If our forwards can't retain the ball, our mids are running *long* and lonely sprints from arc to arc. For the first time in years we are blowing up. In short, forward line permeability is critical. Against Melbourne our forward arc was like a sheet of glass - the ball came straight back out with painful regularity. When we have so many players willing to run kamikaze to follow the damn thing, this often means we are caught on the hop if the D50 user (Salem) can find targets.
So, our Achilles heel then. One part of the ground has presented a problem and you can bet the solution will be forthcoming. We could keep our small forwards deeper in transition, taking more risks out of defence. We could change the structure so CCJ, MRJ and Caddy can separate oppo key backs, trusting in our own backs to absorb more oppo entries. We could (if we had one) play a second ruck and bolster the midfield with ball hunters, capitalizing on quick entries.
Hardwick will look at all these things and pick a team based on the strengths of those coming in. I'm tipping we go with a third marking forward to test the Bulldogs' defence, but whatever we do, it will come from a place of elite tactical expertise. I am 100% confident Friday night will be the most Richmond-like game we've ever played.
The problem is both definable and manageable. If our forwards can find their teeth again, the road to September will have begun. All hail the system - I for one am backing us in.
