** Trade period update **
After a bruising trade period for some clubs, I thought I'd update this post from 23 September.
Taking a bird's eye view, it's interesting to note that strong 2020 draft picks are in the hands of relatively few clubs. In some instances, this will reflect the risk some clubs see in picking under-exposed players (eg Adelaide, Melbourne) while for other clubs it reflects the reality of not being able to attract good players (eg GWS).
Let me know if you agree or otherwise with my assessments!
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To state the obvious, the 2020 draft will be unique.
Looking at the state of each club's list and the challenges around selecting talent that has been less exposed than normal, it's an interesting exercise to see which clubs hold the best hand.
If we agree that there is a higher degree of risk than normal attached to the picks from the second-round onwards, here's is my short summary of how each club stands.
Adelaide: holds 1, 8, 20, 30, 44, 48, 60
Desperately needs a good draft. Should do well with pick 1 (Ugle-Hagan or Thilthorpe). Might select Tyson Edwards' son later in the draft, where the picks become somewhat of a lottery. Supporters must hope the club has done its homework.
Well positioned
**Update**
Adelaide: holds 1, 9, 22, 23, 40, 56, 66, 80
Great draft hand that provides access to top-end talent and includes points for a father/son selection. Will be disappointed with pick 23 for Brad Crouch but they get him off their books and they can now look to upgrade their one-paced midfield with some speed and class. Will they try to bundle up 22 + 23 for an extra first-rounder next year?
Well positioned
Brisbane: holds 18, 19, 38, 64
No great pressure on the Lions at this draft. Talk is they may try to trade up. No obvious list weaknesses apart from pace and perhaps a touch of outside class.
Very well positioned
**Update**
Brisbane: holds 25, 53, 63, 68, 69, 86, 94
OK, so the Lions actually traded down ... or, more accurately, into 2021. A smart move with a list that currently has few gaps. Putting a lot of faith in McInerney to carry the ruck load. Won't use many of these picks and will probably go down the 'best available' route.
Very well positioned
Carlton: holds 7, 27, 45
With Zac Williams coming in, they've replaced Kade Simpson nicely. Desperately need to help Cripps and should target a midfielder with pick 7. Needs to have faith in its recent draftees and get games into them.
Well positioned
**Update**
Carlton: holds 38, 48, 78
Plenty of people questioning the acquisitions of Saad and Williams when the likes of Docherty, Plowman, Newman, Williamson, etc, are able to play the half-back flank roles. But it looks like a deliberate strategy along the lines of generating defensive-half scoring chains with line-breaking run and carry. Haven't addressed their midfield issues though and need to be aiming for a big-bodied mid with their first couple of picks. I like Saad and Williams as players but don't like what Carlton has done overall for this draft.
Poorly positioned
Collingwood: holds 12, 34, 37, 68
Not many list issues but need a goal kicker or two. Can see them trying to package up 34 and 37 into something better.
Well positioned
**Update**
Collingwood: holds 14, 16, 65, 70, 75, 92
Wow. Who saw that coming? In the space of one month, the Pies went from a triumphant finals win in Perth to a list management shambles. Where do you start? They look even worse in front of the ball now without Stephenson and the midfield is suddenly thinner without Treloar and with an ageing Pendlebury. In what is a tricky draft, they really need to make picks 14 and 16 count with a key forward and a speedy mid ... or will they look to package them up for North's or Hawthorn's first pick? From a position of strength, the Maggies are suddenly in a deep hole.
Poorly positioned
Essendon: holds 6, 41, 61, 69, 70
In a world of hurt yet again... and only one decent pick to try and fix it. Simply must offload Daniher and Fantasia, and extract maximum value. Saad would also net them either a decent player or pick. Should target the best available tall forward then midfield pace. Could also do with a couple of two-way runners. No quick rebound for this mob, happily.
Poorly positioned
**Update**
Essendon: holds 6, 7, 8, 44, 77, 85, 87
Hectic trade period where they'd be disappointed they couldn't land Dunkley. Mind you, he's not worth the two first rounders the Dogs asked for, so going to the draft is a better strategy. If the Dons hold their nerve and invest in three good kids, it could provide their list with the balance it needs to offset the high-priced recruits Smith, Stringer, Shiel, etc. Desperately need a key forward, midfield pace and some good runners. Fantasia and the always-injured Daniher are no great loss but Saad hurts with McKenna also heading home. As I said in September, no quick fix here but credit where it's due, three great picks in this draft is at least some sort of launching point.
Well positioned
Fremantle: holds 11, 28
Looks to have been an outstanding draft for the Dockers last year but they still hold a nice hand this year. Can see them going for pace with their first pick and a ruck with their second. Building well.
Very well positioned
**Update**
Fremantle: holds 12, 32, 55
Regrettably, these guys are in a very good place. Can top up on last year's draft haul, probably with the best available mid. Reckon they'd have their eyes on Nathan O'Driscoll and that would be a great result for them.
Very well positioned
Geelong: holds 10, 15, 16, 33
Not the ideal draft to hold picks in this range and be rocking a list that needs to be regenerated sooner rather than later. Club needs good talls right now (ruck, KPD, KPF). Recruiters will earn their money here. Do they bundle picks to trade up or find a way to improve their trade hand next year? A real conundrum for the Cats. Do they come knocking for CCJ?
Well positioned but needs to pull the right rein
**Update**
Geelong: holds 51, 96
Hard to know what to think with the Cats' trade period. Cameron is a massive get, of course, and Higgins and Smith are good plug 'n' play additions. Unlike others, I don't mind their list strategy—they've certainly doubled down on it with three recruits 28 or older. If there was a draft to trade out of, it was this one. And the two 2021 second rounders they got back in the Cameron deal will look better in hindsight than they do right now. Fundamental problems remain: need better ruck division and a quality key back. Won't get them with these picks. Cameron helps greatly in front of the ball but neither Higgins nor Smith were exactly priority needs.
Poorly positioned
Gold Coast: holds 5, 24, 35, 72
Another good hand to top up last year's mega haul. List taking shape nicely.
Very well positioned
**Update**
Gold Coast: holds 5, 27, 37, 76, 84
Markov and Atkins provide the Suns with good defensive/link up depth and more run and carry, and it hasn't cost them at the draft table. Will get another very good player at 5 and can draft for needs from then on, with a couple of good academy players in the wings. Just about ready to turn the corner, I reckon.
Very well positioned
GWS: holds 40, 46, 66
Yuck. Paid a heavy price for Ash and Green last year. Will get good compensation for Williams. Needs run out of half back and players with heart. Could be in for years of mediocrity.
Very poorly positioned
**Update**
GWS: holds 10, 13, 15, 20, 29, 52, 74, 88
Just in a horrible space where they can neither hang onto nor attract players. This place has the potential to be a basket case in a few years' time once Greene, Coniglio, Davis and Ward are done. Bargained with the Cats for players, understandably, but ended up with a mega draft haul instead. Has a feeling of rinse and repeat about it. I just don't know where they go from here. A decimated list and an inability to hold onto young talent means it's a mess. Must somehow turn the tables and start targeting talent from other clubs. If it were me, I'd be bundling up some of this year's picks for a top-tier 2021 pick to get some bargaining power.
Very poorly positioned
Hawthorn: holds 4, 21, 39, 42, 59, 67
Simply has to trust its junior football recruiters for a change. By all accounts picking late will be like hitting a dartboard while blindfolded so must make its first couple of picks count and perhaps bundle up some mid-range picks for a ready-made player or better draft position. List lacks pace, a key forward and a key defender.
Well positioned
**Update**
Hawthorn: holds 4, 24, 45, 46, 49, 72
Phillips to replace Smith looks like a decent result and Hartigan will be important with Frawley and Stratton done. Two nice top-end picks should net them quality players but they're stuck with rubbish from then on. Lots of gaps to fill so this draft will just be the start of the regeneration of this list.
Well positioned
Melbourne: holds 23, 47, 62, 63
A lousy hand for a club that keeps coming up short. Great draft last year (Pickett, Rivers, Jackson). Needs more pace and elite ball use. Probably won't find either with this range of picks.
Very poorly positioned
**Update**
Melbourne: holds 18, 19, 28, 50, 89
Interesting strategy to trade up in this draft. Perhaps they've identified a few players they'd like to target. Not sure I like giving up next year's first round pick though; the only club to have pulled that particular rein. But it's bold and they won't die wondering. At least they have the chance of picking up a couple of useful types at 18 and 19. Better placed now than they were in September and, though he has his knockers, I reckon Ben Brown is a good get.
Well positioned
North Melbourne: holds 2, 9, 25, 57, 65
Having delisted so many players already and with an expectation more will be traded, the Kangas need a good draft. Have the chance to smash this draft out of the park. List has holes everywhere. Must target a key forward to support exciting prospects Zurhaar, Thomas and Taylor.
Very well positioned
**Update**
North Melbourne: holds 2, 11, 30, 39, 71, 81
From a bad place, North has made a good start to its regeneration. Stephenson is probably not the player they needed but they got him on the cheap so who cares? Corr fills a need. Losing the experienced Higgins is not ideal but they have a very nice draft hand. Desperately need a key forward target and some midfield speed to complement the ball-winning skill of Anderson, Cunnington and Simpkin.
Very well positioned
Port Adelaide: holds 26, 29, 43, 50, 55
A dangerous hand to be honest. Access to Lachlan Jones a bonus, and they desperately need better tall defenders, but matching an expected bid for Jones will be costly.
Poorly positioned
**Update**
Port Adelaide: holds 35, 47, 57, 59, 73, 95
Didn't see the play for Allir coming—a brilliant get by a team right in the premiership window. Addresses a massive list hole and they have all the points they need for the expected bid on Jones. Still reckon they need to improve their bookends but I'm happy to upgrade their draft situation on the basis Allir fills a priority need.
Well positioned
Richmond: holds 17, 31, 53, 71
No obvious needs although aren't we glad Balta came on quickly this year. Talk is Rioli will come to us, along with defender Baxter. Will get more deeply involved if Graham and CCJ move on but it wouldn't surprise if the club tries to work in player swaps rather than draft picks.
Very well positioned
**Update**
Richmond: holds 17, 36, 61, 79, 97
Compensation picks mean we end up where we started: with pick 17. Nothing much has changed with regard to list needs despite the unexpected departure of Higgins. Won't be at all surprised if we take Baxter late and a key forward, such as Callow, with our first. Or will a hard-running winger be on our shopping list?
Very well positioned
St Kilda: holds 14, 58, 73
Traded well last year while maintaining a good hand in this draft. Has some ageing players (Ryder, Hanneberry, Carlisle, Savage, Geary, etc) but a nicely rounded list.
Well positioned
**Update**
St Kilda: holds 21, 64, 67, 74, 93
Building an intriguing list of ratbags and misfits who have one thing in common: they can play. Crouch, Higgins and a fit Gresham automatically make them stronger in 2021. Still short on quality talls both back and forward so reckon that will be addressed in this year's draft.
Well positioned ... just
Sydney: holds 3, 22, 54, 56
Quietly building a great list. Outrageous access to local talent. Should win the draft in a canter.
Very well positioned
**Update**
Sydney: holds 3, 31, 34, 43, 60, 82
The offloading of Allir has me buggered—while it may have been a salary cap issue, there's plenty of Swannies I would have moved on before him. Hickey a useful stopgap but I wouldn't be surprised if they reach for a young ruck this draft. Have the points they need for academy pick Campbell and will get a good player with their first pick. I expect the Swans will bounce back up the ladder pretty quickly.
Very well positioned
WCE: holds 32, 51, 52
Sold the farm for Kelly last year, which looks better now due to the difficult draft ahead. List in good shape.
Well positioned
**Update**
WCE: holds 62, 86, 91
Witherden a potential replacement for Hurn, so well played there. A good list so they've obviously decided to opt out of the 2020 draft, which is fair enough. Didn't much like what they gave up for Kelly last year but this compromised draft makes that deal look a lot better with hindsight.
Well positioned
Western Bulldogs: holds 13, 36, 49
Luckily will land Ugle-Hagan but will pay a big price, and as good as he apparently is, key forward isn't a glaring list weakness. The club needs to add pace and hardness to its list ASAP. Wouldn't be surprised if they shop an unexpected name or two to trade back into an improved draft position.
Poorly positioned
**Update**
Western Bulldogs: holds 26, 33, 41, 42, 54, 90
Strange things going on at Whitten Oval. Treloar gives them the midfield pace they needed but who gets pushed out of the side (or to a flank) to deliver him his midfield minutes? Successfully got rid of pick 14 in that deal to smooth things out for the acquisition of Ugle-Hagan. Stef Martin makes sense as stopgap ruck support for English. Still, it's another trade period done and they haven't addressed their key back issues.
Poorly positioned