2014 Hindsight Draft | PUNT ROAD END | Richmond Tigers Forum
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2014 Hindsight Draft

17 said:
That's the $64m question right there Tigertough.
I asked the question of management many moons ago and it was confirmed there was no historical analysis of what went right and what didn't, and no KPI's.
In many ways the club is far advanced and more professional today than it ever has been, but I still doubt whether there is enough (any?) of the right kind of analysis and scrutiny of our recruiting department performance.
Yes there is an enormous amount of ratings data and analysis going on mapping players, but not sure it is ever aimed backwards to analyse our draft decisions and the reasons behind them.
Not as a witch hunt, but to work out how to get better.

From reading here (RFC do have a ratings system) and also being in a very senior position prior to retirement, you would hope we understand the 3-5? systems that must be used by other clubs and be monitoring those as to the best system, its not exact science as kids/young men come on at different stages however the first part of getting better is trying to understand what gives you the best shot of improving and making the neccessary tweaks ongoing to improve...
 
spook said:
Cheers. I wanted Barlow in 2009 as well.

Hmmm. Interesting statement.
Pity you didn't post your Barlow preference in this thread, I would have appreciated the support

RedanTiger said:
I think the club has picked reasonably in the ND. The only one I'm upset with is taking a back pocket with pick 67. I would have liked a better player type given our needs.
Barlow (189, 92) before Webberley (181, 74).

The rookie draft picks I don't like very much and would have taken Thompson, Dare and two more key players. Don't think there's much point in holding Polak even as "insurance".
Thompson (192, 85) before Hicks (176, 68)
Dare (188, 81) before Contin (181, 81)
Casboult (196, 99) before Roberts (176, 78)

before you get to Westhoff, Polak and the issue of "two more key players".
 
RedanTiger said:
Hmmm. Interesting statement.
Pity you didn't post your Barlow preference in this thread, I would have appreciated the support
I wasn't really posting on PRE then. I think every fan in the league wanted Barlow with a late pick, so it's hardly revelatory.
 
Baloo said:
here's what I was hoping for

2014
Corey Ellis
Connor Menadue
Nathan Drummond
Daniel Butler
Reece McKenzie

2013
Ben Lennon
Nathan Gordon
Sam Lloyd

2012
Nick Vlastuin
Kamdyn Mcintosh
Liam Mcbean
Matthew McDonough

2011
Brandon Ellis
Todd Elton
Matthew Arnot

2010
Reece Conca
Jake Batchelor
Bradley Helbig
Dean MacDonald
Tom Derickx

2009
Dustin Martin
Benjamin Griffiths
David Astbury
Matthew Dea
Troy Taylor
Jeromey Webberley
Ben Nason

before that I really didn't take much notice

well done
 
Onto 2013 and the need for speed. I pumped up Taylor for months only to be the last man standing in his defence, eventually I conceded defeat knowing all too well Richmond don't recruit short players, it's a shame too because many have slipped down the order for no other reason other than height.

bullus_hit said:
Lewis Taylor is as genuine a rover as you’re likely to see in this year’s draft class. He’s short and stocky and has the zippiness of a Dale Weightman in his hey-day. This largely comes down to his terrific burst of speed from a stationary position. Taylor is the guy who will suddenly emerge from an ugly scrum and dart away, usually with an intention to bounce his way down the field and into forward 50. He might be pint sized but he’s also strong and agile, and is genuinely dual-sided making him a very dangerous proposition around goals. Many including Taylor himself, liken his game style to Boomer Harvey, and I certainly have to agree on that front.

When analyzing Taylor’s skill set, it’s important to judge him from what a 173cm can feasibly accomplish, and not what he may deliver if he was 2 inches taller. It’s clear that smalls often get the cold shoulder but there’s still a role at AFL level if you’re good enough. Luke Dahlhaus, Dion Prestia, Devon Smith, Nathan Hrovat & Ben Kennedy all made an impression in their first year and I would rank Taylor ahead of all those with the possible exception of Prestia.

Taylor’s main strengths lie in his tenacious desire to win contested possession and win clearances in heavy congestion. He does it with so much regularity that it would seem a given that he could take this game to the next level. He was the TAC player of the year on the back of 7 games of 30+ disposals, and he backed that up at the u/18’s carnival with AA honours and a 24 possession average. His disposal efficiency playing for Vic Country was exceptional coming in at 78% and his kicking efficiency throughout the season has remained in the high 60’s.

Looking at potential scoreboard pressure, I think Taylor could excel in the role of forward pocket and crumbing rover. His 2013 numbers were a little down from the previous year but this was in part, due to fulfilling his duties further up the ground. Despite this, all the attributes are there for him to become a viable goal kicker. He produced a ripping dribbling goal at the carnival and in 2012 averaged over a goal a match at TAC level. Coaches looking to blood him in 2014 would recognize his strong ability to mop up from spillages and fire from both pins. His ability to apply defensive pressure may be a work in progress but he still averages 2 tackles a game and has shown he can produce big performances such as his 7 tackle game against Oakleigh Charges.

Despite his excellent kicking credentials, Taylor could still improve his decision-making when starved of room to move. He will often just attempt a quick kick away instead of measuring his options with a little more composure. In situations where he does create an opening and burst through the lines, his decision-making is generally outstanding and whether it be short or long, his kicks usually find their target.

If the Richmond Football Club are serious about their want of a genuine goal-kicking rover then they need look no further than Lewis Taylor. He’s a club and state captain, a fearless competitor and a player who possesses explosive pace to go with all his other fine attributes. If Francis Jackson decides to go down a different path, I don’t expect him to slide beyond Geelong who have an intimate knowledge of the Geelong Falcon captain. Michael Turner has put him on par with Joel Selwood at an equivalent age and Kevin Sheehan has labeled him Brent Harvey’s heir apparent. Fine praise indeed.

With our next pick I'm getting creative and reinstating pick 32 for the simple reason we have locked up a ten year ruckman and have no need to go chasing our tail with stop gap measures.

bullus_hit said:
Call this the butterfly effect for not picking up Grundy.

One of our most glaring deficiencies has been the small forward role and the player I like most with this pick is Jay Kennedy-Harris.

bullus_hit said:
I think 25-50 will be his range, I'd be delighted to secure him with our second pick.

bullus_hit said:
He's quick, skilled, has leadership credentials and represents something we sorely miss, that is a tenacious whippet who can manufacture goals from scraps and spillages.

At pick 50 I was pleased we finally dipped into the state leagues however it was perhaps a little too early for such a move, I would have preferred one more junior to add to the mix.

bullus_hit said:
Whilst I appreciate our new focus on the state leagues (and a long time coming) I still would have liked another junior thrown in the mix, I think we jumped the gun with Nathan Gordon & Sam Lloyd. I was surprised to see Darcy Byrne-Jones available at 50 and would have jumped at the opportunity, forcing both Gordon and Lloyd down the pecking order.


bullus_hit said:
Apart from the fact that this is the year of the Darcy, Byrne-Jones represented a nice opportunity to snaffle a true athlete with some above average footy smarts and a tremendous work ethic in 1%'s and pressure acts. It was interesting to note that many in the football world were labeling the Oakleigh Charger slow heading into to the combine, maybe it's that combination of agility and speed which creates the impression of time slowing down because Byrne-Jones is anything but slow. He finished 2nd in the repeat sprints, 10th in the 20 metres and 4th in the agility test. To add to that impressive resume he also finished 5th in the beep test & 5th the in the 3km run.

Now all these fine attributes account for little unless there's some solid footballing skills to back it up and on that count I see a well-rounded game which should adapt well to an AFL environment. At present, Byrne-Jones has been playing as a rebounding defender very much in the Pearce Hanley mould, always wanting to take on the opposition and goose step his way through defensive lines. His kicking is another reminder of Hanley, highly efficient but sometimes lacking a little depth, but accurate for the most part. Some may suggest that Darcy's relatively quiet carnival may have dampened his AFL chances but his outstanding combine and a strong finish at TAC level has brought him front and centre as a value late pick.

The key to success or failure for Darcy will come down to the speed in which he can put on 10kg. Such an expectation will probably rule him out of senior football for 12-18 months, but with a carefully monitored regime, he should be able to get a taste of the bigtime in 2015.

From this point on it gets difficult due to the uncertainty of Gordon or Lloyd's availability. I preferred Gordon to be honest so I'll plonk him in at 68.

For our first rookie pick I did support the Banfield selection but much like Maric he proved to be a complete waste. Fortunately things pick up at the next selection and we have our first true rookie masterstroke since Nathan Foley.

bullus_hit said:
Agree Goodie, Miles has completely slipped under the radar, there's nothing to suggest he will struggle at the highest level. These types always have a good chance of succeeding, just look at guys like Brett Kirk & Michael Barlow, both rookies with apparent weaknesses but players who became genuine stars. This to me is a copybook rookie pick, and one which could pay off handsomely. I think we're finally getting our act together at the deep end of the draft.

Last but not least I plumped for Lambert, a year earlier than Frank but better late than never.

bullus_hit said:
Sam Gray will almost certainly be rookied, most likely to Port given he's already training there. He's a regular 30 possession man and has kicked 40 goals over the past two seasons. He finished runner-up in the Magarey medal.

Kane Lambert is another who regularly notches up big possession tallies, and like Gray, finished runner up in the Liston and is good for 20 goals a season.

Both these guys are inside ball winners, they may not have the height of Thomas but they have tremendous scope for improvement given they are in their early twenties. They would also come cheap and have the added versatility as makeshift forwards.

So the final tally was -

12. Lewis Taylor
32. Jay Kennedy-Harris
50. Darcy Byrne-Jones
66. Nathan Gordon

Rookie Draft

11. Todd Banfield
27. Anthony Miles
42. Kane Lambert
 
FWIW

2011:
15 - Elliot Kavanagh
26 - Shane Kersten
55 - Cam Ellis-Yolmen

2012:
9 - Nick Vlastuin
31 - Nick Graham
33 - Matt McDonough
42 - Tim Sumner

2013:
12 - Ben Lennon (really, really wanted Salem there, Lennon was next best)
50 - Darcy Byrne-Jones
66 - Jonathon Marsh

2014:
12 - Lachie Weller
33 - Connor Blakely
52 - Dean Gore
67 - Jaden McGrath
77 - Reece McKenzie

Looking back at that, very few talls. Guess I'm a sucker for a flashy highlights package ;D

Edit - just remembered I really wanted Blake Acres at pick 12 2013 but knew we had no interest for some reason.
 
Now for the 2014 draft, it's well documented that I wasn't overly enthused about Frank's picks and would have taken Weller at 12.

bullus_hit said:
Would probably give the nod to Weller who is also lightening quick. He didn't attend the combine but have managed to uncover one recent time, a 2.91sec/20metres

bullus_hit said:
Think we're on the same page here Skillz, I would even say that Weller's inside game is a bit more developed however Aish has had to contend with taggers his whole career so has developed mechanisms to stay in the game despite the heavy attention. Weller's main advantage over Aish is that he can wear the utility hat and play in defence, it gives him another avenue to shake the tags.

bullus_hit said:
Having seen a fair bit of Weller I can categorically say he looks and plays a lot stronger than his listed weight suggests. Many in the media have completely written off his inside game which is simply a repeat of the Aish assessments last year. The similarities for me are striking, Weller has been operating at 35% contested possession ratio throughout the past two seasons, this has been the case at state level, VFL level & in the NEAFL. As for his kicking, he's the best in the pool in my opinion, I realise that this is at odds with Frank's assessment but Weller possesses way more hurt factor than Ellis, he is also more of a playmaker & line breaker, something which adds to his value as a first rounder.

Here's the assessment from Champion Data.

At the AFL U18 Championship, Lachie Weller recorded the best Kick Rating of any player, with a kick rating of +34%. Kick Rating measures the difference between expected hit rates vs the actual hit rates of targets by foot, meaning that when Weller takes risks with the ball, more often than not it pays off for his side. He’s full of class and executes with a precision that is a cut above the rest at junior level. In the words of Glenn Luff, “not one player in the AFL has recorded a kick rating even close to that of Weller’s”, people talk about Ellis as the Rolls Royce of kicking but it would seem to be at odds with the weight of evidence.

For pick 33 it was time to fill our need for an inside midfielder, that player was Connor Blakely. The departure of Jackson has meant we are lacking in a tall midfielder, Blakely would have filled that void (apparently 189cm now). He's ticked just about every KPI for an inside midfielder.

bullus_hit said:
Connor Blakely (another in the Parker mould, again if we can nab one with a second rounder then it will make for an excellent draft)

bullus_hit said:
Blakely has already impressed at Freo and has grown a couple centimetres, I also discovered he ran a sub 3 sec/20m in testing prior to the combine so speed won't be a major issue. For those lamenting the departure of Jackson I think we had the perfect replacement, let's just hope that Corey can also be that man.

At pick 52 it was Gore all the way, can't believe he drifted so far, Geelong would have been over the moon to get him so late.

bullus_hit said:
Gore was the obvious pick here, a much better user of the ball and a player who has achieved a Rising Star nomination in the SANFL.

My smokey comes in next at 70, in fact I would have selected him at 52 if Gore was off the board.

bullus_hit said:
Boekhorst has been strongly linked to Carlton at 28, I think we need Jaden McGrath at 52, he's in the same mould but is yet to realise his full potential, his AIS experience also indicates a certain level of professionalism. Saad would also be a good option, unlucky not to be drafted a few years ago but has earnt his state league stripes.

bullus_hit said:
I'm a bit non-plussed by the Butler pick, I would have much preferred Jaden McGrath here given his far superior midfield credentials. Brisbane grabbed him late in the game and I'm starting to really rate their talent spotting abilities. It seems every year we're on the same page, they picked up two of my favourites in Aish & Taylor last year, only to pull another one of my hidden gems this year. Make no mistake, McGrath has the ability of a first round pick, he's fast & slick and if he overcomes his bad luck with injury could well be one of the great steals of this draft.

Finally comes McKenzie.

bullus_hit said:
This is where CD stats need to be put in perspective, McKenzie has dominated weaker sides in the TAC cup, he only played a cameo role at state level. One needs to be very careful with making assumptions about his impact, particularly given he has monstered many of his opponents. He scored 256 SC points in his ten goal performance, the bulk of his other monster hauls have been against lowly opposition. He's miles behind McCartin at this stage, both aerobically and in terms of football development.

On the plus side, his pace and basketball background will hopefully put him in good stead as he begins his AFL journey, his sprint times were elite for a big man. For a direct comparison, they weren't far off Nic Naitanui's results in his draft year. The fact he didn't play TAC last year could also be seen as a bonus, hopefully indicating greater scope for improvement.

For a 5th round selection no-one can complain about getting a player with such enormous upside, however there is a long road ahead and he will also be competing with the likes of Griff, McBean & Elton. In 2015 I would simply be hoping for a 30 goal season in the VFL and hopefully a leaner & fitter Reece McKenzie.

Onto the rookie draft and it's all about the state leagues, Adam Saad the player I would have selected at 11.

bullus_hit said:
I was really keen on Lambert last year, hope he gets a shot this year. Saad looks to be a better version of Nahas and Nic Newman looks like a plug and play type who deserves a shot.

bullus_hit said:
Third tier = Saad (draft range 45-Rookie)

bullus_hit said:
Not sure that's true, there are plenty who have made the grade, you'd be hard pressed to find a squad without state league representation. A state league player just collected the Brownlow, that should be reason enough to maintain a sharp eye. There will probably be 3-4 state league guys selected this draft, Glenn, Saad & Boekhorst.

At rookie pick 29 Nic Newman gets the call-up, Hugh Beasley was also in contention at this pick but Brisbane have already snapped him up.

Given I've already picked up Lambert I reserve this position for an undrafted player, Peter Bampton. This story is quite tragic for the lad given he was in line to captain SA but suffered a shoulder injury late in the season and has undergone a full reconstruction. He's a physical player so it will be a long road back but with such a late pick I'm willing to give him 12 months as a rookie and then reassess.

So all up it was -

12. Lachie Weller
33. Connor Blakely
52. Dean Gore
67. Jaden McGrath
77. Reece McKenzie

Rookie Draft
11. Adam Saad
29. Nic Newman
46. Peter Bampton
 
bullus_hit said:
Now for the 2014 draft, it's well documented that I wasn't overly enthused about Frank's picks and would have taken Weller at 12.

For pick 33 it was time to fill our need for an inside midfielder, that player was Connor Blakely. The departure of Jackson has meant we are lacking in a tall midfielder, Blakely would have filled that void (apparently 189cm now). He's ticked just about every KPI for an inside midfielder.

At pick 52 it was Gore all the way, can't believe he drifted so far, Geelong would have been over the moon to get him so late.

My smokey comes in next at 70, in fact I would have selected him at 52 if Gore was off the board.

Finally comes McKenzie.

Onto the rookie draft and it's all about the state leagues, Adam Saad the player I would have selected at 11.

At rookie pick 29 Nic Newman gets the call-up, Hugh Beasley was also in contention at this pick but Brisbane have already snapped him up.

Given I've already picked up Lambert I reserve this position for an undrafted player, Peter Bampton. This story is quite tragic for the lad given he was in line to captain SA but suffered a shoulder injury late in the season and has undergone a full reconstruction. He's a physical player so it will be a long road back but with such a late pick I'm willing to give him 12 months as a rookie and then reassess.

So all up it was -

12. Lachie Weller
33. Connor Blakely
52. Dean Gore
67. Jaden McGrath
77. Reece McKenzie

Rookie Draft
11. Adam Saad
29. Nic Newman
46. Peter Bampton

Fine work Bullus, thanks again for your efforts.
 
Oh yeah. The 2013 draft thread in which I wrote midyear: "Bontempelli Bontempelli Bontempelli" seems to have been deleted when we changed servers, but I would have taken him with pick 1.
 
spook said:
Oh yeah. The 2013 draft thread in which I wrote midyear: "Bontempelli Bontempelli Bontempelli" seems to have been deleted when we changed servers, but I would have taken him with pick 1.

Don't worry Spook, I fully credit you with that call. Excellent assessment.
 
My choices in the 2013 phantom draft were these stars: Sam Heavyside, Chris Cain, Matt Sully and Willie Rioli. Do I win anything?
 
tigertim said:
My choices in the 2013 phantom draft were these stars: Sam Heavyside, Chris Cain, Matt Sully and Willie Rioli. Do I win anything?

A place in Carlton's recruiting team? :p
 
spook said:
Oh yeah. The 2013 draft thread in which I wrote midyear: "Bontempelli Bontempelli Bontempelli" seems to have been deleted when we changed servers, but I would have taken him with pick 1.

Speaking of Bont, how about the retro drafting coming out of Essendon right now? "If the AFL hadn't pinged us we would've taken Bont!! I swear it's true"

The excuse making is already starting.
 
SCOOP said:
Speaking of Bont, how about the retro drafting coming out of Essendon right now? "If the AFL hadn't pinged us we would've taken Bont!! I swear it's true"

The excuse making is already starting.

Its a bizarre article.
 
SCOOP said:
Speaking of Bont, how about the retro drafting coming out of Essendon right now? "If the AFL hadn't pinged us we would've taken Bont!! I swear it's true"

The excuse making is already starting.
I haven't seen that but given Bont went at 4 and their pick would have been 10, I'm not sure how they would have managed that.

I need to correct myself on the 2014 draft. I said I would have taken Garlett at 12, but i'd forgotten Lever was still on the board. I would have taken him with pick 5.
 
spook said:
I haven't seen that but given Bont went at 4 and their pick would have been 10, I'm not sure how they would have managed that.

I need to correct myself on the 2014 draft. I said I would have taken Garlett at 12, but i'd forgotten Lever was still on the board. I would have taken him with pick 5.

They were going to trade 10+Carmeri for pick 4.
 
SCOOP said:
They were going to trade 11+Carmeri for pick 4.
I just read the article. It might have been Essendon's plan but I doubt Dalrymple would have agreed to it.

The Bombers are a joke. How long until they ask for a priority pick?