Talking Politics

[year of the tiger]

The Libs are starting to sound like the English cricket team when they lose. Lib-Ball.

Yes - read the Age and you would think it is close, very close and all the Libs claiming so, check the AEC results and Labor are actually performing really strongly and better than anyone predicted. It is not even close, a small swing (2.8%) with 70% voted and Labor on 53%.

Normally sitting Govt lose these mid session by elections so just shows how well Dutton and Co are travelling.

This media bias/spin has to stop.

 

[mrposhman]

Yes - read the Age and you would think it is close, very close and all the Libs claiming so, check the AEC results and Labor are actually performing really strongly and better than anyone predicted. It is not even close, a small swing (2.8%) with 70% voted and Labor on 53%.

Normally sitting Govt lose these mid session by elections so just shows how well Dutton and Co are travelling.

This media bias/spin has to stop.

Factor in the money that has been spent on this vote too. I don't know the numbers, I can only tell you anecdotally, but the crap in my postbox, was hugely weighted towards the Libs, probably 5 to 1 in terms of leaflet drops. In terms of TV ads, I reckon even more than that, probably closer to 10 to 1 than 5 to 1. They've spent heaps to get an average bye-election swing. Dutton will clearly state this is a positive but I can't see how they have got any value for money out of that spend.

I'm not sure how many of you know the area, but there were polling booths along Kars Street (that is a richer part of the Dunkley seat running up to Mount Eliza which is a Lib stronghold) and 2 of those polling booths appear to be swinging towards Labor on a 2 party preferred vote. Thats a massive fail for the Libs.

 

[Ralphie]

Yes - read the Age and you would think it is close, very close and all the Libs claiming so, check the AEC results and Labor are actually performing really strongly and better than anyone predicted. It is not even close, a small swing (2.8%) with 70% voted and Labor on 53%.

Normally sitting Govt lose these mid session by elections so just shows how well Dutton and Co are travelling.

This media bias/spin has to stop.

 

[larabee]

Yes - read the Age and you would think it is close, very close and all the Libs claiming so, check the AEC results and Labor are actually performing really strongly and better than anyone predicted. It is not even close, a small swing (2.8%) with 70% voted and Labor on 53%.

Normally sitting Govt lose these mid session by elections so just shows how well Dutton and Co are travelling.

This media bias/spin has to stop.

Is that now two byelections in a row won by the sitting govt? Unprecedented

 

[Tigers08]

Watched Susan Ley. Did Liberal Party win? ABC claim ALP won. Susan Ley was a total embarrassment as usual. She should resign. Take the Spud with her.

 

[DavidSSS]

The primary vote is interesting.

Libs are up 6.74%. Sound good? Well, actually not so good. You see, the UAP, One Nation and Lib Dems did not stand this time and their combined vote at the general election was 10.38%. So the Libs did not get all of those votes back, substantial leakage there, although some would have gone to the so-called Libertarians who I can only assume are RWNJs as opposed to real libertarians, they got 2.58%.

The ALP's primary vote was up 0.74%, not bad for a by-election for the governing party but given the Greens vote dropped 4% some clearly leaked to socialists, animal justice, independent etc.

So, the upshot is that the primary vote for the major parties was up but not in a convincing way.

As for the swing, 3.74% against the government in a seat where the local member had some personal following and there are economic issues which are difficult for a government to control, and you would have to say slight fail for the Libs, and barely a pass for the ALP. For the ALP it would be a relief to hold the seat and still have an ok margin going to the next election. The Libs won't win a general election on this performance.

DS

 

[Legends of 2017]

The Libs are starting to sound like the English cricket team when they lose. Lib-Ball.

The difference being the libs didn’t have a moral victory when they lost

 

[Tigers of Old]

Nailed it.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1764055870739284080

 

[MD Jazz]

I watched the same thing. Kept repeating a significant swing away from Albo etc, when Labor seems to have increased their 1st preference. The Greens haven't campaigned here, but regardless of how the Libs spin it, based on the amount of money they've sunk into this, if they don't get a significantly bigger swing than an average bye-election swing, then it can't be seen anything other than a failure.

They've been forced to change tact away from helping cost of living, I think because of Nathan Conroys insistence throughout his time as Major of Frankston to increase rates at the maximum allowable amount, hows that for "aiding cost of living".

You are right on Sussan Ley, constantly came back to crime and in particular those 149 people released by the High Court.

I am in Dunkley. The amount of money they tipped behind Conroy was amazing. Ads on social media, radio, tv etc.

Another massive failure by a party unrecognisable from 20 years ago. The further right they go the lower the support they will garner. I'm sure Sky will spin this as some sort of moral victory.

 

[Ian4]

It's twitter, so feel free to take it with a grain of salt, but I 100% believe this. The person behind this twitter account is... I guess you could say he's notorious.

I didn't think Hastie would have the ticker. Guess I'm wrong.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1764205296652886108

 

[Baloo]

 

[tigerman]

After peeing millions of dollars down the drain in last federal election, it's great to see the RWNJ lobby group "Advance" do the same in the Dunkley election.

That's what they get for taking punters as mugs.

 

[Ian4]

After peeing millions of dollars down the drain in last federal election, it's great to see the RWNJ lobby group "Advance" do the same in the Dunkley election.

That's what they get for taking punters as mugs.

I heard they spent $400k on the Dunkley by-election and that it was a test run for next years federal election. I am assuming they will be spending tens of millions on the federal election.

the truth in advertising laws and disinformation bill really needs to be passed in the coming months. What Advance are doing is anti-democratic. Its not right.

I also heard the Libs spent a truckload trying to win Dunkley. Jane Hume herself said they made 70,000 phone calls. That’s a really big number.

 

[mrposhman]

I heard they spent $400k on the Dunkley by-election and that it was a test run for next years federal election. I am assuming they will be spending tens of millions on the federal election.

the truth in advertising laws and disinformation bill really needs to be passed in the coming months. What Advance are doing is anti-democratic. Its not right.

I also heard the Libs spent a truckload trying to win Dunkley. Jane Hume herself said they made 70,000 phone calls. That’s a really big number.

Jazz backed me up with this, but it was obvious that the Libs / Advance spent a fortune. Billboard ads (theres still some up today), mass marketing via leaflet drops. Nathan Conroy was plastered all over my social media, TV ads were out of control, as I mentioned I reckon it was close to 10-1 for the Libs.

It got around to election day and I was well aware of Nathan Conroys name, but I couldn't actually remember the ALP's candidates name, it was only when I switched on ABC that I was reminded that it was Jodie Belyea. But I didn't forget Nathan Conroys name. The fact that they had that much advertising and barely got a passable result, they were pretty much bang on the average swing in bye-elections, is a bit of an indictment on the Libs IMO.

 

[MD Jazz]

Jazz backed me up with this, but it was obvious that the Libs / Advance spent a fortune. Billboard ads (theres still some up today), mass marketing via leaflet drops. Nathan Conroy was plastered all over my social media, TV ads were out of control, as I mentioned I reckon it was close to 10-1 for the Libs.

It got around to election day and I was well aware of Nathan Conroys name, but I couldn't actually remember the ALP's candidates name, it was only when I switched on ABC that I was reminded that it was Jodie Belyea. But I didn't forget Nathan Conroys name. The fact that they had that much advertising and barely got a passable result, they were pretty much bang on the average swing in bye-elections, is a bit of an indictment on the Libs IMO.

Yeh, I was exactly the same. Bombarded with his name everywhere. Did not see any promotion about Jodie.

I still put Conroy and his *smile* up party last. And I have voted Liberal many more times than any other party since I started voting. But whilst they lurch further and further right they will never get my vote again. I ensure they do not end up getting it via preferences either. What an ugly joke of a party they have become.

 

[Sintiger]

Until the liberal party actually understand and accept why they are in the nose in Victoria nothing is going to change.
The liberal party can never make real inroads in the Victoria with Peter Dutton as leader.

 

[bengal tigers]

Until the liberal party actually understand and accept why they are in the nose in Victoria nothing is going to change.
The liberal party can never make real inroads in the Victoria with Peter Dutton as leader.

Vic Metro you mean,,,the country areas aren't as gullible to Labor.
I would expect a much bigger swing against Albo in other states like WA,.maybe SA ,and great to see a decent swing against those morons the GREENS .

It's funny to read peoples comments about how much the Libs spent on Dunkley election,yet Labor have just spent 400million + on the Voice referendum ,and in Victoria blow projucts out by billions,and lets not forget how much they spent of tax payers money on the failed commonwealth games ,,must be a lot of people on here who don't pay tax ,or just dont care except for their own agendas ,,,Victoria expected to be in debt 250billion by 2027,,more taxes to come .

 

[mrposhman]

Vic Metro you mean,,,the country areas aren't as gullible to Labor.
I would expect a much bigger swing against Albo in other states like WA,.maybe SA ,and great to see a decent swing against those morons the GREENS .

It's funny to read peoples comments about how much the Libs spent on Dunkley election,yet Labor have just spent 400million + on the Voice referendum ,and in Victoria blow projucts out by billions,and lets not forget how much they spent of tax payers money on the failed commonwealth games ,,must be a lot of people on here who don't pay tax ,or just dont care except for their own agendas ,,,Victoria expected to be in debt 250billion by 2027,,more taxes to come .

I'm not sure what relevance that has to what we were discussing.

The LIbs spent hand in hand well above what Labor spent in the bye election. Thats not even being argued against. My statements around it are what did they gain from it? If they have to overspend by that much to get an average swing in the bye-election, how poor would their vote be without.

You are typical of the average Lib die hard right now, deflect, deflect, deflect. Instead of looking at the results and understanding what people want, remember Dunkley was a historical Lib hold (sure the boundary changes for the electorate probably didn't help them but there are large areas of the electorate that are voters that might typically vote Libs), you would probably deflect into something thats totally unrelated to the bye-election.

The point being, if the Libs have to overspend by that much to get a fairly average return on it, maybe, just maybe, their policies / strategies aren't enabling the electorate to buy into what they are selling, but sure go ahead and continue to deflect.

BTW, I'm the epitome of what should be a Lib voter, background, age, demographic, salary band, but if I could vote (I've been super slack on getting my citizenship), then I would have voted Labor this election, even though from a demographic background, I should theoretically be a Lib voter, and btw I pay a lot more tax than the average Australian (not a boast but a comment back to your comment around not paying tax).

 

[Sintiger]

Vic Metro you mean,,,the country areas aren't as gullible to Labor.
I would expect a much bigger swing against Albo in other states like WA,.maybe SA ,and great to see a decent swing against those morons the GREENS .

It's funny to read peoples comments about how much the Libs spent on Dunkley election,yet Labor have just spent 400million + on the Voice referendum ,and in Victoria blow projucts out by billions,and lets not forget how much they spent of tax payers money on the failed commonwealth games ,,must be a lot of people on here who don't pay tax ,or just dont care except for their own agendas ,,,Victoria expected to be in debt 250billion by 2027,,more taxes to come .

I am not a Labor voter nor am I talking about Labor, I am talking about the liberal Party
They can’t even win in the electorate of Robert Menzies and that has little to do with the ALP
They don’t get it and seeing the campaign they ran in Dunkley they still don’t.
Intelligent people want real policies, not dog whistling.

 

[tigerman]

I expect the Teals to be Labor's main rival before very long.