3:23:06 PM Wed 19 March, 2003
Kevin Diggerson
afl.com.au
The 16 AFL coaches are being asked to answer five key footy questions, and afl.com.au’s writers are having a stab at the same time. In the first of a series to correspond with the coaches’ survey, Kevin Diggerson predicts the winner of the 2003 Brownlow Medal.
Matthew Richardson will fulfill his destiny and claim the 2003 Brownlow Medal.
Now, before you send for the psychological analysis, consider the reasons why Richardson can claim the AFL’s ultimate on-field individual honour on the last Monday night in September.
The 28-year old Richardson is a match winner and has proved in the past that he catches the eye of the men in white. He has polled 75 Brownlow votes over his 157 game career and his votes per game average of 0.48 exceeds the likes of Essendon’s James Hird (0.45) and Adelaide champion Andrew McLeod (0.46). It is also crucial to consider the method of determining the winner.
The Brownlow Medal does not always go to the best player in the AFL, nor does it necessarily go to the best player in a season. The game’s ultimate honour is usually won by the player that can catch the umpire’s eye most often through a 22 game season.
With the 3-2-1 voting system, a player can win the medal by dominating seven games and picking up maximum votes, even if he doesn’t get a kick in the other 15 matches. Contrast that with a player that is the fourth best player in all 22 games. He would not garner a single vote.
Richardson proved last year how much umpires value match-winning brilliance. The Richmond star appeared in just 13 games, two of which saw him sidelined by injury. Yet he polled the seventh highest vote total, earning maximum votes in four games.
Two years ago, Richardson played 22 games and led the league in marks and contested marks to lead the Tigers to the finals for the first time since 1995. As he goes, the Richmond goes.
Richardson will be hungry after missing much of last year’s disappointing campaign and with his contract situation settled his mind will be clear to concentrate on the game. Two of Richardson’s best seasons, 1996 and 2000, have come on the back of injury interrupted campaigns.
In 1995 Richardson’s season came to an end at the SCG in round nine when a knee injury ruled him out of the Tigers best season since 1982, but he bounced back with a 91 goal / 177 mark season to earn All Australian honours in 1996.
The Tiger champion played only three games in 2000 but was back to his best the following year. It appears that the pain of injury is a major spur for Richardson, and while many question his temperament and work ethic, his ability to rehabilitate and come back so strongly demonstrates his passion for the game.
The injury to teammate Brad Ottens could also be a catalyst for Richardson. The 2003 season will be an opportunity for him to demonstrate his leadership qualities. Now 28, Richardson has matured as a footballer and while it would be easy to point to his lapse against Carlton last year, look for him to take charge of the forward line.
In recent times the Brownlow Medal winner has not come from among the pre-season favourites. Players such as Shane Woewodin (2000), Jason Akermanis (2001) and Simon Black (2002), while all excellent performers and worthy winners, did not rate highly in pre-season predictions. The usual popular choices such as Nathan Buckley, Michael Voss, Matthew Lloyd and McLeod have been close, but injury, suspension, and the inability to earn votes despite playing well have seen their assault on the medal sidetracked.
McLeod’s brilliant pre-season culminating in his Michael Tuck Medal win in the Wizard Home Loans Cup grand final again proved his status as one of the league’s best. He has been close to winning the medal the last three years, finishing in the top six each year. Buckley, another perennial top tenner, now has a better cast around him and his confidence should be at an all time high after adding the Norm Smith Medal to his trophy case last year.
Nominating the Brownlow winner a week before the start of a 22 week season is fraught with obvious danger. Any player is only a minute away from injury, as Ottens found last week. But Richardson clearly has what it takes to join Ian Stewart, Roy Wright, Bill Morris and Stan Judkins as Richmond Brownlow winners, and season 2003 could be the year that the luck needed to claim the medal falls his way.
Kevin Diggerson
afl.com.au
The 16 AFL coaches are being asked to answer five key footy questions, and afl.com.au’s writers are having a stab at the same time. In the first of a series to correspond with the coaches’ survey, Kevin Diggerson predicts the winner of the 2003 Brownlow Medal.
Matthew Richardson will fulfill his destiny and claim the 2003 Brownlow Medal.
Now, before you send for the psychological analysis, consider the reasons why Richardson can claim the AFL’s ultimate on-field individual honour on the last Monday night in September.
The 28-year old Richardson is a match winner and has proved in the past that he catches the eye of the men in white. He has polled 75 Brownlow votes over his 157 game career and his votes per game average of 0.48 exceeds the likes of Essendon’s James Hird (0.45) and Adelaide champion Andrew McLeod (0.46). It is also crucial to consider the method of determining the winner.
The Brownlow Medal does not always go to the best player in the AFL, nor does it necessarily go to the best player in a season. The game’s ultimate honour is usually won by the player that can catch the umpire’s eye most often through a 22 game season.
With the 3-2-1 voting system, a player can win the medal by dominating seven games and picking up maximum votes, even if he doesn’t get a kick in the other 15 matches. Contrast that with a player that is the fourth best player in all 22 games. He would not garner a single vote.
Richardson proved last year how much umpires value match-winning brilliance. The Richmond star appeared in just 13 games, two of which saw him sidelined by injury. Yet he polled the seventh highest vote total, earning maximum votes in four games.
Two years ago, Richardson played 22 games and led the league in marks and contested marks to lead the Tigers to the finals for the first time since 1995. As he goes, the Richmond goes.
Richardson will be hungry after missing much of last year’s disappointing campaign and with his contract situation settled his mind will be clear to concentrate on the game. Two of Richardson’s best seasons, 1996 and 2000, have come on the back of injury interrupted campaigns.
In 1995 Richardson’s season came to an end at the SCG in round nine when a knee injury ruled him out of the Tigers best season since 1982, but he bounced back with a 91 goal / 177 mark season to earn All Australian honours in 1996.
The Tiger champion played only three games in 2000 but was back to his best the following year. It appears that the pain of injury is a major spur for Richardson, and while many question his temperament and work ethic, his ability to rehabilitate and come back so strongly demonstrates his passion for the game.
The injury to teammate Brad Ottens could also be a catalyst for Richardson. The 2003 season will be an opportunity for him to demonstrate his leadership qualities. Now 28, Richardson has matured as a footballer and while it would be easy to point to his lapse against Carlton last year, look for him to take charge of the forward line.
In recent times the Brownlow Medal winner has not come from among the pre-season favourites. Players such as Shane Woewodin (2000), Jason Akermanis (2001) and Simon Black (2002), while all excellent performers and worthy winners, did not rate highly in pre-season predictions. The usual popular choices such as Nathan Buckley, Michael Voss, Matthew Lloyd and McLeod have been close, but injury, suspension, and the inability to earn votes despite playing well have seen their assault on the medal sidetracked.
McLeod’s brilliant pre-season culminating in his Michael Tuck Medal win in the Wizard Home Loans Cup grand final again proved his status as one of the league’s best. He has been close to winning the medal the last three years, finishing in the top six each year. Buckley, another perennial top tenner, now has a better cast around him and his confidence should be at an all time high after adding the Norm Smith Medal to his trophy case last year.
Nominating the Brownlow winner a week before the start of a 22 week season is fraught with obvious danger. Any player is only a minute away from injury, as Ottens found last week. But Richardson clearly has what it takes to join Ian Stewart, Roy Wright, Bill Morris and Stan Judkins as Richmond Brownlow winners, and season 2003 could be the year that the luck needed to claim the medal falls his way.
