Tigers drafting after Pick 40

[mrposhman]

So I know a fair bit has been said on here particularly around our later drafting so I thought I'd quantify it.

It seems like we had a bit of a step change in how we drafted after the 2014 season (less retreads etc), so I've used the years 2015-2022 to review. I've ignored rookie upgrades or re-rookied players as I wanted to just look at our pure drafting returns.

Across that period from 2015-22 we drafted 36 players after Pick 40 (including rookie / MSD and PSSD). I have them graded as 17 hits, 11 busts and 8 that are probably too soon to tell. Even if those 8 are all busts thats a success rate of almost 50% which is outstanding at this point in the draft.

Those that I have stated are hits are (brackets are games for the Tiges): Butler (47), Short (153), Castagna (134), Lambert (135), Soldo (57), Markov (23), Broad (126), Chol (31), Graham (117), Stengle (2), Miller (25), Baker (110), Ross (63), Aarts (42), Pickett (77), Stack (35) and Young (19).

I'll clarify a few in there, as I went away a little from games played for the Tiges to garner my viewpoint. The scouts remit is to find AFL quality players and draft them, therefore I included Markov as he has played 74 games in total, Chol similar in that he's now played 61, Stengle (60) etc. Miller is probably the contentious one here but for where we drafted him I reckon we are ahead of average games played, Aarts was solid for a rookie for 42 games and Young may be a bit early but I think in 1 season he has shown he is AFL quality.

The busts are probably a bit easier, Drummond (5), McKenzie (0), Moore (8), Marcon (2), Turner (0), English (0), Martyn (3), Nyoun (1), Parker (5), Bradtke (0). Possibly a bit unlucky for Drummond due to the ACL's, possibly a good pick just his body couldn't handle AFL.

Those in the too soon band are Cumberland (18), RalphSmith (32), Ryan (15), Rioli (27), Bauer (4), Smith (0), Green (0) and Campbell (0). There are several there that I know plenty are excited about.

Overall I think though that this shows our drafting after 40 over a fair few years is very very good, at worst a success rate of just under 50%. Looking at it the other way, a bust rate of only 30% over that period is very good.

Lets hope we can continue to smash these later picks out of the park as these are the areas of the draft we need to get right, to get back into Premiership contention.

 

[bullus_hit]

Massive difference between Jackson & Clarke, I think people have underestimated that gulf, Clarke very close to being in the job the same amount of time.

 

[TigerFurious]

So I know a fair bit has been said on here particularly around our later drafting so I thought I'd quantify it.

It seems like we had a bit of a step change in how we drafted after the 2014 season (less retreads etc), so I've used the years 2015-2017 to review. I've ignored rookie upgrades or re-rookied players as I wanted to just look at our pure drafting returns.

Across that period from 2015-22 we drafted 36 players after Pick 40 (including rookie / MSD and PSSD). I have them graded as 17 hits, 11 busts and 8 that are probably too soon to tell. Even if those 8 are all busts thats a success rate of almost 50% which is outstanding at this point in the draft.

Those that I have stated are hits are (brackets are games for the Tiges): Butler (47), Short (153), Castagna (134), Lambert (135), Soldo (57), Markov (23), Broad (126), Chol (31), Graham (117), Stengle (2), Miller (25), Baker (110), Ross (63), Aarts (42), Pickett (77), Stack (35) and Young (19).

I'll clarify a few in there, as I went away a little from games played for the Tiges to garner my viewpoint. The scouts remit is to find AFL quality players and draft them, therefore I included Markov as he has played 74 games in total, Chol similar in that he's now played 61, Stengle (60) etc. Miller is probably the contentious one here but for where we drafted him I reckon we are ahead of average games played, Aarts was solid for a rookie for 42 games and Young may be a bit early but I think in 1 season he has shown he is AFL quality.

The busts are probably a bit easier, Drummond (5), McKenzie (0), Moore (8), Marcon (2), Turner (0), English (0), Martyn (3), Nyoun (1), Parker (5), Bradtke (0). Possibly a bit unlucky for Drummond due to the ACL's, possibly a good pick just his body couldn't handle AFL.

Those in the too soon band are Cumberland (18), RalphSmith (32), Ryan (15), Rioli (27), Bauer (4), Smith (0), Green (0) and Campbell (0). There are several there that I know plenty are excited about.

Overall I think though that this shows our drafting after 40 over a fair few years is very very good, at worst a success rate of just under 50%. Looking at it the other way, a bust rate of only 30% over that period is very good.

Let’s hope we can continue to smash these later picks out of the park as these are the areas of the draft we need to get right, to get back into Premiership contention.

One of the reasons for our supposed success after pick 40 is volume, especially if you include rookie and SSP selections. Since around 2013 when we first made finals under Hardwick, I’d guess we’ve had twice the number players recruited after pick 40 than we’ve had before.

Anyone can win the lottery if they buy enough tickets.

 

[mrposhman]

One of the reasons for our supposed success after pick 40 is volume, especially if you include rookie and SSP selections. Since around 2013 when we first made finals under Hardwick, I’d guess we’ve had twice the number players recruited after pick 40 than we’ve had before.

Anyone can win the lottery if they buy enough tickets.

How does having more picks after 40 increase your success rate? I'd think anyone getting a 50-70% success rate after 40 would see that as very successful. Its got nothing to do with having more picks. Thats like whe Trump says he doesn't understand what per capita means.

 

[TigerFurious]

How does having more picks after 40 increase your success rate? I'd think anyone getting a 50-70% success rate after 40 would see that as very successful. It’s got nothing to do with having more picks. Thats like whe Trump says he doesn't understand what per capita means.

How does our success rate with picks before 40 compare to picks after 40 during the same period?

 

[bigwow]

How does our success rate with picks before 40 compare to picks after 40 during the same period?

For this information, read any post by Zips, ever.

 

[mrposhman]

How does our success rate with picks before 40 compare to picks after 40 during the same period?

I'd need to go back and take a look at it, but theoretically your success rates should drop as your picks get later and later

 

[tigersnake]

One of the reasons for our supposed success after pick 40 is volume, especially if you include rookie and SSP selections. Since around 2013 when we first made finals under Hardwick, I’d guess we’ve had twice the number players recruited after pick 40 than we’ve had before.

Anyone can win the lottery if they buy enough tickets.

Its a good point, but I reckon our strike rate would be pretty good on a comparative basis. The strike rate is what matters. Based on Posh 2 year sample, 50% strike rate seems off the charts. You could dismiss it as only being 2 years, but 2 years like that played a huge part in our success.

 

[mrposhman]

Its a good point, but I reckon our strike rate would be pretty good on a comparative basis. The strike rate is what matters. Based on Posh 2 year sample, 50% strike rate seems off the charts. You could dismiss it as only being 2 years, but 2 years like that played a huge part in our success.

Sorry there was a type in there, not sure why I wrote 2017. The sample size is for all drafts from 2015 to 2022 hence some of the players are in the too soon to tell box. I'll update the original post

 

[Little Ziggyadee]

So I know a fair bit has been said on here particularly around our later drafting so I thought I'd quantify it.

It seems like we had a bit of a step change in how we drafted after the 2014 season (less retreads etc), so I've used the years 2015-2022 to review. I've ignored rookie upgrades or re-rookied players as I wanted to just look at our pure drafting returns.

Across that period from 2015-22 we drafted 36 players after Pick 40 (including rookie / MSD and PSSD). I have them graded as 17 hits, 11 busts and 8 that are probably too soon to tell. Even if those 8 are all busts thats a success rate of almost 50% which is outstanding at this point in the draft.

Those that I have stated are hits are (brackets are games for the Tiges): Butler (47), Short (153), Castagna (134), Lambert (135), Soldo (57), Markov (23), Broad (126), Chol (31), Graham (117), Stengle (2), Miller (25), Baker (110), Ross (63), Aarts (42), Pickett (77), Stack (35) and Young (19).

I'll clarify a few in there, as I went away a little from games played for the Tiges to garner my viewpoint. The scouts remit is to find AFL quality players and draft them, therefore I included Markov as he has played 74 games in total, Chol similar in that he's now played 61, Stengle (60) etc. Miller is probably the contentious one here but for where we drafted him I reckon we are ahead of average games played, Aarts was solid for a rookie for 42 games and Young may be a bit early but I think in 1 season he has shown he is AFL quality.

The busts are probably a bit easier, Drummond (5), McKenzie (0), Moore (8), Marcon (2), Turner (0), English (0), Martyn (3), Nyoun (1), Parker (5), Bradtke (0). Possibly a bit unlucky for Drummond due to the ACL's, possibly a good pick just his body couldn't handle AFL.

Those in the too soon band are Cumberland (18), RalphSmith (32), Ryan (15), Rioli (27), Bauer (4), Smith (0), Green (0) and Campbell (0). There are several there that I know plenty are excited about.

Overall I think though that this shows our drafting after 40 over a fair few years is very very good, at worst a success rate of just under 50%. Looking at it the other way, a bust rate of only 30% over that period is very good.

Lets hope we can continue to smash these later picks out of the park as these are the areas of the draft we need to get right, to get back into Premiership contention.

We are the kings when it comes to drafting after pick 40 and with rookie picks.
ive said we should the ask the afl if we could trade our 1st rounder for 2 picks in the Rookie Draft

 

[Little Ziggyadee]

We are the best

Th

 

[shad]

So I know a fair bit has been said on here particularly around our later drafting so I thought I'd quantify it.

It seems like we had a bit of a step change in how we drafted after the 2014 season (less retreads etc), so I've used the years 2015-2022 to review. I've ignored rookie upgrades or re-rookied players as I wanted to just look at our pure drafting returns.

Across that period from 2015-22 we drafted 36 players after Pick 40 (including rookie / MSD and PSSD). I have them graded as 17 hits, 11 busts and 8 that are probably too soon to tell. Even if those 8 are all busts thats a success rate of almost 50% which is outstanding at this point in the draft.

Those that I have stated are hits are (brackets are games for the Tiges): Butler (47), Short (153), Castagna (134), Lambert (135), Soldo (57), Markov (23), Broad (126), Chol (31), Graham (117), Stengle (2), Miller (25), Baker (110), Ross (63), Aarts (42), Pickett (77), Stack (35) and Young (19).

I'll clarify a few in there, as I went away a little from games played for the Tiges to garner my viewpoint. The scouts remit is to find AFL quality players and draft them, therefore I included Markov as he has played 74 games in total, Chol similar in that he's now played 61, Stengle (60) etc. Miller is probably the contentious one here but for where we drafted him I reckon we are ahead of average games played, Aarts was solid for a rookie for 42 games and Young may be a bit early but I think in 1 season he has shown he is AFL quality.

The busts are probably a bit easier, Drummond (5), McKenzie (0), Moore (8), Marcon (2), Turner (0), English (0), Martyn (3), Nyoun (1), Parker (5), Bradtke (0). Possibly a bit unlucky for Drummond due to the ACL's, possibly a good pick just his body couldn't handle AFL.

Those in the too soon band are Cumberland (18), RalphSmith (32), Ryan (15), Rioli (27), Bauer (4), Smith (0), Green (0) and Campbell (0). There are several there that I know plenty are excited about.

Overall I think though that this shows our drafting after 40 over a fair few years is very very good, at worst a success rate of just under 50%. Looking at it the other way, a bust rate of only 30% over that period is very good.

Lets hope we can continue to smash these later picks out of the park as these are the areas of the draft we need to get right, to get back into Premiership contention.

Grat post. My only caveat on that would be it's a lot easier to be a 'sucessful' player in a great team. I'm not sure that all those players would have performed as well in a bottom six side.

 

[Streak]

Possibly a bit unlucky for Drummond due to the ACL's, possibly a good pick just his body couldn't handle AFL.

I agree with that caveat. Very unlucky. Never got the chance to show us what he could really do.

 

[waiting]

Grat post. My only caveat on that would be it's a lot easier to be a 'sucessful' player in a great team. I'm not sure that all those players would have performed as well in a bottom six side.

Possibly so shad but we will never know.

The test will come from next year onwards with the kids we got in the past 2-3 drafts.

Let’s evaluate after that I guess.

Great thread.

 

[TigerMasochist]

Grat post. My only caveat on that would be it's a lot easier to be a 'sucessful' player in a great team. I'm not sure that all those players would have performed as well in a bottom six side.

Could also be said that it's much harder to not just break into a great team, but then also establish ones self as good enough to stay and be a quality contributor to that team.

 

[tigerdell]

So I know a fair bit has been said on here particularly around our later drafting so I thought I'd quantify it.

It seems like we had a bit of a step change in how we drafted after the 2014 season (less retreads etc), so I've used the years 2015-2022 to review. I've ignored rookie upgrades or re-rookied players as I wanted to just look at our pure drafting returns.

Across that period from 2015-22 we drafted 36 players after Pick 40 (including rookie / MSD and PSSD). I have them graded as 17 hits, 11 busts and 8 that are probably too soon to tell. Even if those 8 are all busts thats a success rate of almost 50% which is outstanding at this point in the draft.

Those that I have stated are hits are (brackets are games for the Tiges): Butler (47), Short (153), Castagna (134), Lambert (135), Soldo (57), Markov (23), Broad (126), Chol (31), Graham (117), Stengle (2), Miller (25), Baker (110), Ross (63), Aarts (42), Pickett (77), Stack (35) and Young (19).

I'll clarify a few in there, as I went away a little from games played for the Tiges to garner my viewpoint. The scouts remit is to find AFL quality players and draft them, therefore I included Markov as he has played 74 games in total, Chol similar in that he's now played 61, Stengle (60) etc. Miller is probably the contentious one here but for where we drafted him I reckon we are ahead of average games played, Aarts was solid for a rookie for 42 games and Young may be a bit early but I think in 1 season he has shown he is AFL quality.

The busts are probably a bit easier, Drummond (5), McKenzie (0), Moore (8), Marcon (2), Turner (0), English (0), Martyn (3), Nyoun (1), Parker (5), Bradtke (0). Possibly a bit unlucky for Drummond due to the ACL's, possibly a good pick just his body couldn't handle AFL.

Those in the too soon band are Cumberland (18), RalphSmith (32), Ryan (15), Rioli (27), Bauer (4), Smith (0), Green (0) and Campbell (0). There are several there that I know plenty are excited about.

Overall I think though that this shows our drafting after 40 over a fair few years is very very good, at worst a success rate of just under 50%. Looking at it the other way, a bust rate of only 30% over that period is very good.

Lets hope we can continue to smash these later picks out of the park as these are the areas of the draft we need to get right, to get back into Premiership contention.

Well researched, thanks Poshie.

Another consideration is the calibre of players. In the success rate its fair to say many are role players, even core role players (eg Castagna).
Its enlightening to consider the strike rate to get star players.
Lambert, Short, Baker
On another rung Graham, Broad, Castagna, Pickett

So of the 28 known quantities we have 3 stars and lets say 4 B graders.
Its worth setting our expectations accordingly

 

[MB78]

Also we must give credit to our development coaches and VFL program as well here. Hopefully it continues.

 

[waiting]

I hope the ‘crop of kids’ we drafted 2-3 years ago get a better run with injury & confidence, an injury free pre season to show their worth.

Hope Yze encourages those kids that there are spots up for grabs if they work hard enough.

Lastly play them in their rightful positions to allow them to flourish.

I know the words, ‘exciting, ‘promise’, ‘unlucky’, ‘x-factor’ plus others get banded about , but seriously I’m genuinely looking forward to so many of our kids playing meaningful roles in 24.

‘Get Behind Our Kids ‘ in 24.

 

[Scoop]

Massive difference between Jackson & Clarke, I think people have underestimated that gulf, Clarke very close to being in the job the same amount of time.

Not fair Bulllus, Clarke has had the quality of picks that Jackson had. Still needs to get better but it's not apples with apples.

Edit: I was talking early picks, with picks after 40 it's a fair call.

 

[TigerPort]

‘Get Behind Our Kids ‘ in 24.

Needs a bit of work

How about "The kids to roar in 24"???