The new normal's the same as the old normal

[eZyT]

Heres some numbers to brighten up your day.

We are 65% of the way through season 2020

Richmond have won 60% of our games at 116%

65% through 2017,

Richmond had won 60% of our games at 105%

65% through 2019

Richmond had won, yes, 60% of our games at 103%

So its hard to read a formline,

But through simple extrapolation,

We are on an eerily same trajectory towards a premiership

 

[kiwitiger]

Without looking at any numbers I had figured it was similar , and i think i posted it yesterday , didnt know it was that close ,

Quite Bizzare actually

 

[eZyT]

Without looking at any numbers I had figured it was similar , and i think i posted it yesterday , didnt know it was that close ,

Quite Bizzare actually

I did the numbers on paper so hopefully they stand up to scrutiny

I called 11/17 = 15/22 (rounds)

And 6.5/11 = 9/15 (wins)

On this basis,

Im saying

2017 = 2019 = 2020

It does seem bizarre. Like Winx's sectionals

 

[seven]

My only concern is the less number of games.
We normally hit throttle just before the finals.

Just hope we can still make it top 4

 

[BrisTiger24]

I wish the AFL would finalise the final rounds of games and put up the latter predictor....I need to know the sensitivities around wins and losses, which clubs play each other in terms of those clubs vying for top 4.

 

[Harry]

Yep, treating this 9 day break same as the bye last year. Reckon the club is also. Dimma is pressing the re-set button and will slowly release the throttle. Hoping the old normal will be restored soon.

 

[Mopsy]

Nice work EzY.

The club has hopefully perfected the run into finals again.

Even though with a shortened season its like missing a week of trackwork and being short of a run.

 

[seven]

Yep, treating this 9 day break same as the bye last year. Reckon the club is also. Dimma is pressing the re-set button and will slowly release the throttle. Hoping the old normal will be restored soon.

Dimma has said we've been indiscipline on field.
My guess the hub life is pissing some players off.

 

[AngryAnt]

I wish the AFL would finalise the final rounds of games and put up the latter predictor....I need to know the sensitivities around wins and losses, which clubs play each other in terms of those clubs vying for top 4.

We don't yet have the sequence of remaining games, but we know the teams we will play.

https://predictor.squiggle.com.au/ is awesome. It uses Gaussian analysis/Monte Carlo type simulation and other mumbo-jumbo to run multiple simulations for remaining games, even factoring in upsets. you can tip some/all games yourself or get the simulator to run all remaining games.

 

[Harry]

Hoping the finals will go back to the old normal 20 minute quarters.

There's no reason why they shouldn't as there would be the normal 1 week turnaround.

That old normal would suit us just fine.

The cat's would obviously whinge about it.

 

[jb03]

Bit of a difference. Not all players available fit and firing. And no Ellis.

 

[Ripplestick]

Word on the street is all clubs accept port, hawks and crows will finish the season in qld. At least the eagles will have to travel again but seems as though port may not. This would increase the likelihood of qld over wa as the place for finals imo.

 

[Jonesracing82]

I wish the AFL would finalise the final rounds of games and put up the latter predictor....I need to know the sensitivities around wins and losses, which clubs play each other in terms of those clubs vying for top 4.

This is best i can find on the run home.
"the run home" articles on Fox Footy are another look

https://twitter.com/x/status/1291936545163763713

 

[eZyT]

Bit of a difference. Not all players available fit and firing. And no Ellis.

I think at the 65% mark of 2019 we were missing a few JB?

You dont reckon Marlion covers Brando?

Emergence of $hai as the games most exciting mid?

Emergence of notorius as the games most exciting KPB?

I think we are ahead of 17 and 19

And we will win the first interstate premiership.

And they'lle whinge about something

 

[Harry]

I think at the 65% mark of 2019 we were missing a few JB?

You dont reckon Marlion covers Brando?

Emergence of $hai as the games most exciting mid?

Emergence of notorius as the games most exciting KPB?

I think we are ahead of 17 and 19

And we will win the first interstate premiership.

And they'lle whinge about something

Agree Easy E

Shai covers one of Prestia or Edwards if one doesn't return. If both return then bonus.
Notorious covers Dave. If Dave returns then bonus
Marlion and or KMac cover Ellis
Nank should be back but worst case scenario the improvement of Choldo should cover this
Aarts covers the loss of Shai in the fwd line
Houli will be back and he would have been on top of his fitness
Cotch will be back (hopefully his hammies stand up)
We need George and Rioli to find form in the forward 50 - confident they can
We also need another heavy lifter in the middle - reckon the club are hoping Graham finds form and fitness

If we get WC in QLD then it helps us even more.

 

[Jonesracing82]

Heres some numbers to brighten up your day.

We are 65% of the way through season 2020

Richmond have won 60% of our games at 116%

65% through 2017,

Richmond had won 60% of our games at 105%

65% through 2019

Richmond had won, yes, 60% of our games at 103%

So its hard to read a formline,

But through simple extrapolation,

We are on an eerily same trajectory towards a premiership

This is an amazing stat. as flat as we were at the restart our % is much better this yr compared to the other 2 yrs. Add the fact that we all know how well we finish seasons off recently.

 

[JimJessTorp]

What's the go with the byes?

Unlike the "normal" years where the comp is rooted for nearly a month with a rolling series of bye rounds it seems that a pair of teams gets a "rest".

Is this the AFL's way of fixing the Bongers COVID-19 *smile* from earlier in the year which left them and Melbourne(?) one game less than everyone else?