"The Best" - A Statistical Viewpoint (Part 1): The Back Pockets

[The_General]

Well, for the past weekend many of you may have read the "One Percenters" thread on the Dyer-Tribe forum regarding some statistical analysis of the players in the league, so we can see (statistically) where our players stand against the rest of the league.

Being the first part of the analysis, I'd go through briefly how I got my data together.

Step 1:    I went to pro sports and got a list of the players who had played the most amount of guys for each club.
Step 2:    I reduced the amount of players down to a total of 22. I did this by eliminating players that had retired or been delisted, as they won't
               be part of the action for 2006. This has a bit of a bearing on how things are done, as for example, some of the better players in each
               position have retired due to injury or "other reasons" - like Ty Zantuck. Once this was done, I took a, possibly simplistic, viewpoint of
               counting only the top players based on games played - with one exception. If there was a "star" player for a team that hadn't played
               enough games to be in the top 22, I bumped the last person off and elevated them into the last position. I did this basically because in
               2006, these players would be walk up starts into their teams. The only "star" that hasn't been given this favouritism is Luke Darcy,
               simply because it's unlikely he'll play a game in 2006. Aaron Hamill and Josh Fraser were a couple to benefit from this "favouritism".
Step 3:   Once I had my list of 22 players, I tried to allocate each player to their "likely" position on the ground. This can be very difficult as lots of
              players aren't restricted to just being in one position. To aid in this I visited the Yahoo Sports Australia website, where they still have a
              copy of every teams "Ins and outs" for every weekend of the year. I tried to get some feel for where the coaches named each player to
              play. If there was a consistent trend, I'd put x player in y position. This isn't the "best" method, as we all know some coaches play games
              with the team listings before a game, but I thought it was the best method to account for each player, especially for some of the
              interstate teams I hadn't got to see very often.         Yahoo Sports AFL Teams.

Step 4:  This was the fun stuff, I took the stats from pro-sports and entered them into an excel spreadsheet, and played around with several
              different formulae to try and demonstrate what might be some key indicators for each particular position.

Ok, now that's explained (and probably bored you to death, I'll go on with the stuff you really wanted to see.

 

[The_General]

For the back pockets, I thought that some of the key indicators would be:

How many Disposals they have are direct rebounds outside of 50.
How many Disposals are errors.
How many of their possessions are 1st possessions.
What percentage of their possessions are actually contested.
How many 1ers these guys would have per game.
The one stat that is GLARINGLY obvious that is missing is : goals kicked against by direct opponent. Why hasn't anyone recorded this at AFL level? Anyway....

Firstly, taking a look at the rebounds.

Disposals vs Rebound 50
Rank Name                 Team              Ratio
1              James Clement         Collingwood             2.1
2              Matthew Bishop        Port Adelaide           2.3
3              Troy Makepeace       Kangaroos               2.4
4              Josh Hunt                 Geelong                   2.4
5              Chris Newman          Richmond                 2.8
6              David Wirrpunda       West Coast             3.0
7              Chris Johnson           Brisbane                  3.2
8              Ben Hart                   Adelaide                  3.2
9              Brett Jones               West Coast             3.5
10            Scott Thornton          Fremantle               3.8
11            Matt Whelan             Melbourne               3.9
12            Craig Bolton              Sydney                    3.9
13            Sean Dempster         Sydney                    4.0
14            Nathan Bassett         Adelaide                 4.1
15            Michael Wilson           Port Adelaide         4.1
16            Danny Jacobs             Hawthorn               5.0
17            Ryan Hargreave        Bulldogs                  5.0
18            N D Brown                Melbourne                5.1
19            David Teague           Carlton                     5.3
20            Andrew Kellaway      Richmond                 5.4
21            Jess Sinclair              Kangaroos               5.5
22            Andrew Carrazzo      Carlton                     5.8
23            Steven Baker            St Kilda                     6.3
24            James Walker           Fremantle                6.3
25            Mark McVeigh           Essendon                 6.3
26            Brett Voss                St Kilda                     6.4
27            Ben Johnson            Collingwood             6.4
28            Campbell Brown       Hawthorn                 6.5
29            Chris Scott               Brisbane                   7.2
30            Darren Milburn         Geelong                 7.6
31            Ricky Dyson              Essendon                12.2
32            Matt Robbins            Bulldogs                  70.5

Basically, how many possessions each player has compared to how many rebound 50's the player has. So for Chris Newman, for every 2.8 possessions he has, he's rebounding the ball outside our defensive 50. He's a little behind James Clement who was one of the All Australian BP and just ahead of another All Australian in David Wirrpunda. Couple of surprises to me in Makepeace and Bishop, but it goes to show how important Newman is to us in getting the ball outside 50.

Andy Kellaway on the other hand is a long way down the pack, 20th amongst just the back pockets. I'd think though that he'd be more likely to be spoiling the ball so someone like Newman can pick it up and take it outside, or that most of his disposals would be handballs rather than kicks, which are more likely to clear the 50m line.

 

[The_General]

Next we have the amount of times each player possesses the ball, and how often they turn the ball over.

1              Danny Jacobs          Hawthorn                 16.3
2              Andrew Kellaway     Richmond                 16.3
3              Chris Newman         Richmond                 11.9
4              Andrew Carrazzo    Carlton                     11.7
5              James Walker          Fremantle                 11.4
6              Troy Makepeace      Kangaroos                10.3
7              N D Brown               Melbourne                10.2
8              Ricky Dyson             Essendon                 9.6
9              James Clement        Collingwood             9.2
10            Brett Voss               St Kilda                     9.0
11            Ben Johnson           Collingwood              8.9
12            Scott Thornton        Fremantle                 8.9
13            David Wirrpunda     West Coast              8.7
14            Jess Sinclair             Kangaroos               8.4
15            Campbell Brown      Hawthorn                 8.0
16            Nathan Bassett       Adelaide                   7.7
17            Darren Milburn        Geelong                    7.3
18            Matthew Bishop      Port Adelaide            7.3
19            Steven Baker           St Kilda                    6.8
20            Josh Hunt                Geelong                   6.3
21            David Teague          Carlton                     6.1
22            Matt Whelan            Melbourne               5.9
23            Ben Hart                  Adelaide                   5.9
24            Craig Bolton             Sydney                    5.8
25            Mark McVeigh           Essendon                 5.5
26            Michael Wilson         Port Adelaide           5.5
27            Chris Johnson          Brisbane                  5.3
28            Ryan Hargrave         Bulldogs                  5.1
29            Brett Jones              West Coast             4.9
30            Sean Dempster        Sydney                    4.0
31            Matt Robbins           Bulldogs                   3.7
32            Chris Scott              Brisbane                   3.6

Again we can see that Newman is right up there with the leaders. Surprisingly for someone that is criticized so often re: his disposal, Andy Kellaway commits few errors in comparison to the amount of disposals he has. Again, Andy does tend to handball it more (around 50% of his disposals are hbs), whereas 66% of Newman's disposal is by foot.

Both are well ahead of Clement and Wirrpunda.

 

[The_General]

This is the amount of possessions they have for every "first" possession.

Rank Name               Team          Ratio
1              Ben Johnson          Collingwood        7.5
2              Darren Milburn       Geelong              10.7
3              Steven Baker         St Kilda               10.8
4              Andrew Carrazzo   Carlton               10.9
5              Ricky Dyson            Essendon           11.2
6              Jess Sinclair            Kangaroos          13.1
7              Craig Bolton           Sydney               15.3
8              Michael Wilson       Port Adelaide      15.4
9              Mark McVeigh         Essendon           15.5
10            Sean Dempster      Sydney               16.8
11            Matt Whelan          Melbourne          16.8
12            Brett Jones             West Coast       17.3
13            Chris Newman        Richmond           20.3
14            David Teague         Carlton               20.7
15            Troy Makepeace     Kangaroos         21.2
16            Chris Johnson        Brisbane             21.9
17            James Walker        Fremantle           22.8
18           Campbell Brown     Hawthorn           24.0
19           Brett Voss              St Kilda               24.3
20           Ryan Hargreave     Bulldogs              27.1
21          Chris Scott               Brisbane             28.6
22          N D Brown               Melbourne          29.1
23          Josh Hunt                Geelong              29.3
24          Nathan Bassett       Adelaide             41.9
25          Scott Thornton        Fremantle           43.0
26          Matt Robins            Bulldogs              47.0
27          David Wirrpunda    West Coast         50.9
28          James Clement       Collingwood        53.9
29          Matthew Bishop     Port Adelaide      54.8
30          Andrew Kellaway   Richmond            81.7
31          Ben Hart                Adelaide              109.0
32          Danny Jacobs        Hawthorn            122.5

Having a look at these numbers, I wasn't sure if I would keep them. Basically, it shows that most of the guys aren't the ones to get first possession, and are probably more likely to receive it.

Interestingly, Clement and Wirrpunda have a very low amount (high ratio). Another older stalwart and backman with a big reputation follows them (Ben Hart).

I could be wrong, but I'm sure a couple of the guys up the top of the list have spent a bit more time on the ball than most of the "genuine" back pockets as well, which might be a good reason why they have a much lower ratio.

 

[The_General]

Percentage of all possessions that are contested.
Rank        Name                            Team                    Percentage
1              David Teague               Carlton                 15.0%
2              Mark McVeigh               Essendon              14.2%
3              Brett Jones                   West Coast          13.1%
4              Steven Baker                St Kilda                 12.6%
5              Sean Dempster             Sydney                 12.6%
6              Brett Voss                     St Kilda                 12.3%
7              Chris Scott                    Brisbane               11.2%
8              Craig Bolton                  Sydney                 11.1%
9              Andrew Kellaway          Richmond              11.0%
10            James Clement             Collingwood          10.9%
11            Matt Whelan                 Melbourne            10.9%
12            Matt Robbins                Bulldogs                10.6%
13            Darren Milburn             Geelong                 10.2%
14            Chris Newman              Richmond              9.9%
15            Danny Jacobs               Hawthorn              8.6%
16            Jess Sinclair                  Kangaroos             8.1%
17            Campbell Brown           Hawthorn               7.9%
18            Ryan Hargreave           Bulldogs                 7.7%
19            Josh Hunt                     Geelong                 7.4%
20            Michael Wilson             Port Adelaide          6.1%
21            Chris Johnson               Brisbane                5.9%
22            N D Brown                    Melbourne              5.9%
23            Ben Hart                       Adelaide                 5.5%
24            Ricky Dyson                  Essendon               5.2%
25            Nathan Bassett            Adelaide                 4.8%
26            Ben Johnson                Collingwood            4.7%
27            David Wirrpunda          West Coast            4.7%
28            Andrew Carrazzo         Carlton                    4.1%
29            Troy Makepeace           Kangaroos              4.1%
30            Matthew Bishop           Port Adelaide          3.7%
31            James Walker               Fremantle               2.7%
32            Scott Thornton             Fremantle               2.0%


These numbers are more likely to indicate how close checking a defender is that the others (although not a guarantee of such). This might be one area where Newman is down, and probably one that hurts us the most. We really miss a close checking back pocket (especially against the smaller quicker forwards like Milne) and I think it's one area that Newman might not really be suited to.

If I were a forward pocket, I'd probably be happy to play against Fremantle.....

 

[The_General]

Lastly, these numbers show how many 1%'s a player has per game. I'd probably expect backman to have a higher average here, as they shepherd their teammates out of the pocket on a rebound, or scrap for a loose ball etc.

I'm not surprised to see Andy here, as he is all heart. This is probably the best stat you can have to indicate effort, as it doesn't take talent to do the small things like shepherding, smothering kicks etc, it's all about desire.

Rank        Name                       Team                       Average
1              Nathan Bassett       Adelaide                        6
2              David Teague          Carlton                         5.7
3              Andrew Kellaway     Richmond                     5.4
4              Matt Whelan            Melbourne                    5.1
5              Michael Wilson         Port Adelaide               4.9
6              Scott Thornton         Fremantle                    4.8
7              Craig Bolton             Sydney                         4.8
8              Ryan Hargreave       Bulldogs                       4.8
9              James Clement        Collingwood                  4.7
10            Darren Milburn         Geelong                        4.4
11            Chris Newman         Richmond                      4.3
12            Campbell Brown      Hawthorn                      4.3
13            Brett Voss               St Kilda                          4.3
14            Chris Johnson          Brisbane                        4.1
15            Ben Hart                  Adelaide                        4.1
16            Brett Jones              West Coast                   4.1
17            Mark McVeigh           Essendon                      3.8
18            Danny Jacobs           Hawthorn                      3.8
19            Troy Makepeace       Kangaroos                    3.8
20            Josh Hunt                 Geelong                        3.7
21            Matt Robbins            Bulldogs                        3.7
22            Chris Scott               Brisbane                        3.7
23            David Wirrpunda      West Coast                   3.6
24            Jess Sinclair             Kangaroos                     3.4
25            Steven Baker           St Kilda                          3.3
26            Andrew Carrazzo     Carlton                          3.2
27            Matthew Bishop       Port Adelaide                 3
28            Sean Dempster        Sydney                          2.9
29            James Walker           Fremantle                     2.9
30            N D Brown                Melbourne                     2.2
31            Ben Johnson            Collingwood                  1.8
32            Ricky Dyson              Essendon                     1.8

Feel free to add feedback on how useful this is, or interesting.

Tomorrow (Wednesday) I'll go onto part 2 - Full backs.

 

[Bill James]

It was glaringly obvious in 2005 that Wallace had instructed some players to handball more (Kelleway, Tivendale) and some to kick more (Newman, Brown) and it was pretty much in line with the PRE view of who could kick and who couldn't.

 

[Djevv]

As you know I mucked around with pro-stats on a spreadsheet as well, but not to the extent you did. I found pretty similar trends albeit only at RFC.

First possessions seem to be down for all backmen as compared to Centres and Forwards. Not sure why. But it seems to be the same for all backs. Your average for back pockets was roughly 22, the RFC backman average was 30. This contrasted with RFC centres who averaged 6 - 4/5 times better!

In the 1%ers the overall competition average was about 3.3. For back pockets it is about 4.1. So defense oriented players are better at this particular skill. RFC forwards averaged 2.3 for this skill. Again not sure why. Is it the pressure of being in the forward line? I don't think so as RFC centres averaged only slightly better at 2.5. So this is a skill which can be taught and insisted upon by a coach. RFC are 15th in 1% ers.

Keep the stats coming General - very interesting stuff!

 

[pahoffm]

Interesting stats.

Although there was only one mark between them in 2005, Kellaway 98, Newman 97, the results of your analysis lead me to perceive that Kellaway is the one who is contesting and Newman is the one who is the finisher.
In other words, Kellaway, it seems, is going up for the punch or mark, Newman is waiting down to receive the spill or the handball/short possession.
This would seem consistant with their roles.

Strangely, I didn't see a table for Team Rebound 50s so it is hard to judge our overall defence by that criterion.

I found this table:
Best Defence (Pts Agst)
69 1 Adelaide
75 2 Sydney
81 3 West Coast
82 4 St Kilda
84 5 Geelong
93 6 Fremantle
94 7 Port Adelaide
97 8 Kangaroos
98 9 Brisbane
100 10 Richmond
104 11 Melbourne
105 12 Essendon
105 13 Hawthorn
107 14 Western Bulldogs
110 15 Collingwood
121 16 Carlton
which tells us that our overall defense is outside the top 8 and at best average.

 

[The_General]

Phantom

Here is a list of rebound 50's - average per game for each team.

Rank Team Rb50
1 Essendon 41.5
2 Collingwood 38.8
3 Hawthorn 38.8
4 Melbourne 38.4
5 Brisbane 37.5
6 Fremantle 37.5
7 Port Adelaide 37.2
8 Western Bulldogs 37.1
9 Richmond 36.7
10 Carlton 36.4
11 Kangaroos 35.9
12 West Coast 34.8
13 Geelong 34.5
14 Adelaide 33.6
15 Sydney 33.6
16 St Kilda 32.9

The teams with the 6 lowest were also in the top 6 in the competition this year - obviously if you're midfield win a lot of the ball, you're defenders don't have as many opportunities to rebound the ball. I'd really like to see that with the Tigers ;D

 

[pahoffm]

The teams with the 6 lowest were also in the top 6 in the competition this year - obviously if you're midfield win a lot of the ball, you're defenders don't have as many opportunities to rebound the ball. I'd really like to see that with the Tigers ;D

Great point, if the ball's away from the backline you got less chance of losing.

 

[mad-saint-guy]

I could be wrong, but I'm sure a couple of the guys up the top of the list have spent a bit more time on the ball than most of the "genuine" back pockets as well, which might be a good reason why they have a much lower ratio.

Yeah, Bakes played in the midfield pretty much all season, and only went into the backline when his opponent midfielder went forward. Not a back pocket. Sam Fisher is usually our other back pocket.

(Just for future Reviews and stuff, seeing as two of the saints players you have reviewed don't really play that position, here's the saints best 22 in position).

B: Voss, Hudghton, S.Fisher
HB: Goddard, Maguire, R.Clarke
C: Dal Santo, Hayes, Montagna
HF: Hamill, Riewoldt, Harvey
F: Milne, Gehrig, Koschitzke

Foll: Ackland, Ball, Baker
Int: Peckett, Fiora, McQualter, X.Clarke

Emg: Thompson, Powell, Blake

But keep up the good work, I've enjoyed reading your reviews/"The Best" articles.