Well in a moment of hubris I was thinking we have actually been more successful than some of the clubs with more flags than us. Although this is normally the domain of L2R2R or @SirSwampThing (are they the same person?), I've created a ladder based on each team's performance from a premiership only perspective vs the expected number of premierships they should have won which is expressed as a percentage.
For simplicity's sake, if there were 10 teams in the comp, then the expected number of flags for that particular year is 0.1 - so I basically assume everyone has an even chance every year of getting a flag. There was actually a year (1916) with only 4 teams in the comp - so your expected number of premierships for that year was 0.25 if you participated (which we did - but didn't win...). This year, with 18 teams, your expected number of flags was 0.063.
What this does is weigh flags more when there are more teams (you aren't expected to win as many) - and less heavily when there aren't many teams. But it also counts heavily against you, for not winning, with few teams. This also means that teams don't get penalized for joining the comp later, or not playing during the war years. I was expecting West Coast and Hawthorn to do well but I had forgotten if you only take the Brisbane Lions entity (post merge) - then they are actually on top - but I combined Bear/RoyBoys and BrisLions all together for this table. We do pretty well, but the ladder also speaks to the dominance Melbourne had in the middle of the century and the early flags Carlton, Collingwood and Essendon put in the bank. We got penalized for being crap early days when there weren't that many teams in it (10). Tough life remains to be a St Kilda or Western Bulldogs supporter. Yikes!! Saints fans should expect 10 flags .. and have 1! If you have zero flags, I ranked it on expected flags - so Freo is the worst ever on this way of doing it. If GWS had of beaten us they would have been top of the table....
Hope you find it interesting.
Success % = # flags / expected flags
% Premiership = flags / # years in comp
PM me if you want the full .xls file as I couldn't attach it (file type not allowed) and has who was in the comp each year.
For simplicity's sake, if there were 10 teams in the comp, then the expected number of flags for that particular year is 0.1 - so I basically assume everyone has an even chance every year of getting a flag. There was actually a year (1916) with only 4 teams in the comp - so your expected number of premierships for that year was 0.25 if you participated (which we did - but didn't win...). This year, with 18 teams, your expected number of flags was 0.063.
What this does is weigh flags more when there are more teams (you aren't expected to win as many) - and less heavily when there aren't many teams. But it also counts heavily against you, for not winning, with few teams. This also means that teams don't get penalized for joining the comp later, or not playing during the war years. I was expecting West Coast and Hawthorn to do well but I had forgotten if you only take the Brisbane Lions entity (post merge) - then they are actually on top - but I combined Bear/RoyBoys and BrisLions all together for this table. We do pretty well, but the ladder also speaks to the dominance Melbourne had in the middle of the century and the early flags Carlton, Collingwood and Essendon put in the bank. We got penalized for being crap early days when there weren't that many teams in it (10). Tough life remains to be a St Kilda or Western Bulldogs supporter. Yikes!! Saints fans should expect 10 flags .. and have 1! If you have zero flags, I ranked it on expected flags - so Freo is the worst ever on this way of doing it. If GWS had of beaten us they would have been top of the table....
Hope you find it interesting.
Success % = # flags / expected flags
% Premiership = flags / # years in comp
PM me if you want the full .xls file as I couldn't attach it (file type not allowed) and has who was in the comp each year.
| Success % | Premierships | Expected flags | % Premiership | Years in Comp | Start Year | WWI miss | WWII miss | ||
1 | West Coast | 189.5% | 4 | 2.1 | 11.76% | 34 | 1987 | ||
2 | Hawthorn | 178.3% | 13 | 7.3 | 13.54% | 96 | 1925 | ||
3 | Essendon | 155.8% | 16 | 10.3 | 13.11% | 122 | 1897 | 2 | |
4 | Carlton | 149.7% | 16 | 10.7 | 12.90% | 124 | 1897 | ||
5 | Collingwood | 140.4% | 15 | 10.7 | 12.10% | 124 | 1897 | ||
6 | Richmond | 139.6% | 13 | 9.3 | 11.50% | 113 | 1908 | ||
7 | Melbourne | 118.3% | 12 | 10.1 | 9.92% | 121 | 1897 | 3 | |
8 | Adelaide | 109.6% | 2 | 1.8 | 6.67% | 30 | 1991 | ||
9 | All Brisbane/Fitzroy | 96.8% | 11 | 11.4 | 8.21% | 134 | |||
10 | Geelong | 87.8% | 9 | 10.3 | 7.44% | 121 | 1897 | 1 | 2 |
11 | Port Adelaide | 69.7% | 1 | 1.4 | 4.17% | 24 | 1997 | ||
12 | North Melbourne | 54.8% | 4 | 7.3 | 4.17% | 96 | 1925 | ||
13 | Sydney / South Melbourne | 47.9% | 5 | 10.4 | 4.07% | 123 | 1897 | 1 | |
14 | Western Bulldogs / Footscray | 27.4% | 2 | 7.3 | 2.08% | 96 | 1925 | ||
15 | St Kilda | 9.7% | 1 | 10.3 | 0.82% | 122 | 1897 | 2 | |
16 | Greater Western Sydney | 0.0% | 0 | 0.5 | 0% | 9 | 2012 | ||
17 | Gold Coast | 0.0% | 0 | 0.6 | 0.00% | 10 | 2011 | ||
18 | University | 0.0% | 0 | 0.7 | 0% | 7 | 1908 | ||
19 | Fremantle | 0.0% | 0 | 1.6 | 0.00% | 26 | 1995 | ||
| Total | 124 | 124 | 1532 | 9 | 2 | ||||
| Brisbane Lions | 209% | 3 | 1.4 | 13% | 24 | 1997 | |||
| Brisbane Bears | 0% | 0 | 0.7 | 0% | 10 | 1987 | |||
| Fitzroy | 86% | 8 | 9.3 | 0.08 | 100 | 1897 |
Last edited:
