Salary cap analysis

[The Big Richo]

Been having a bit of a go at estimating where we are at with our salary cap as a mental workout. Highly speculative naturally.

It's a work in progress at the moment which I've decided to post despite not being happy with the figures. I only have a 100k buffer for match payments and bonuses at this stage which is nowhere near enough. In reality that probably needs to be more like 500k so there's some shaving to do.

Unsure what the mark is for 2023 yet so will continue to add as I go. The figures I work off are bases only, with the total package depending on bonuses/match payments in some cases. For example Gibcus is on the 105,000 base but will have been paid much more with match payments and game bonuses.

Will continue to update as it goes. Explanatory notes below.

Salary cap 2022: $13,540,000

Player​	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029
Aarts	250,000	N/A
Baker	250,000	600,000	650,000
Balta	400,000	500,000
Banks	95,000	200,000	300,000	350,000
Bauer	85,000	85,000
Bolton	600,000	650,000
Broad	450,000	500,000
Brown	105,000	200,000	300,000	350,000
Caddy	400,000	N/A						​
Castagna	350,000	450,000
Clarke	95,000	200,000	300,000	350,000
Colina (R)	N/A
Collier-Dawkins	200,000	N/A
Cotchin	700,000	300,000
Cumberland	150,000	350,000	450,000
Dow	150,000
Edwards	300,000
Gibcus	105,000	300,000	400,000	500,000
Graham	300,000	400,000	450,000
Grimes	450,000
Lambert	450,000
Lynch	950,000	1,000,000	1,100,000	1,200,000
Mansell	150,000	250,000
Martin	1,200,000	1,250,000	1,300,000
Martyn	150,000
McIntosh	350,000	450,000
Miller (R)	150,000
Nankervis	400,000	500,000
Nyuon (R)	85,000
Parker (R)	120,000
Pickett (R)	300,000	400,000
Prestia	700,000
Ralphsmith	150,000	300,000
Riewoldt	700,000
Rioli D	350,000	400,000	450,000	650,000	800,000	950,000
Rioli M	90,000	300,000	350,000
Ross	200,000	300,000	350,000
Ryan	120,000	300,000	350,000
Short	350,000	450,000	500,000	800,000	1,000,000	1,200,000
Soldo	250,000	350,000	400,000
Sonsie	95,000	200,000	300,000	350,000
Stack (R)	120,000
Tarrant	350,000
Vlastuin	650,000	650,000	700,000	800,000	950,000
Draftee	N/A
Draftee	N/A
Taranto	N/A	750,000	750,000	750,000	750,000	750,000	750,000	750,000
Hopper	N/A	700,000	700,000	750,000	750,000	750,000	750,000	800,000
Misc	1,000,000
Cap total:	13,440,000

85,000 of rookie wage is not counted in cap. I believe Colina as a Category B rookie is outside the cap.

Rioli D and Short have to be heavily back ended to fit those long deals, as does Vlastuin.

 

[turk-d-tiger]

The 5 1st year players would be on min contracts for 2023 and wont be $200k
also $300k for samson Ryan is way too much and more likely $150k
Mansell also would be on similar to $150k
Short & D.Rioli would be $100k more than what you have them imo

 

[The Big Richo]

The 5 1st year players would be on min contracts for 2023 and wont be $200k
also $300k for samson Ryan is way too much and more likely $150k
Mansell also would be on similar to $150k
Short & D.Rioli would be $100k more than what you have them imo

All fair points, my rationale is that the standard rate for the draftees will go up next year and there will be some sugar for signing the longer deal so early.

Ryan is the same I think, can't see why he would sign so far out without a reasonable offer on the table. I think Mansell would have hoped to be an established senior player by the second year of his deal which would make that cheap.

I agree on Rioli and Short but I just can't find the money. On first draft I was more than 2 million over the cap, we are so unbalanced with the big contracts that the regular senior guys all seem well under. The only possibility I could see was that Rioli and Short were given the long deals so they could be seriously back-ended.

One I might be out on is Pickett, possible he is only on half of that, which would free up another 150k for Short and Rioli, but as I said I reckon I still need to find 500k - 1 million in savings to cover the flexible aspects of contracts, land that might be skinny. A rough look at our games list from last season says to me we would have paid out somewhere around 500k in match payments alone.

 

[momentai]

Interesting exercise and a lot of guesswork but I think you have it pretty right.
Miller and Riewoldt, not yet pencilled in for this year. Expect that Jack will take a huge reduction, maybe even beyond that taken by Cotch, but let’s say down to $300,000 and Miller will be on similar.

 

[TigerMasochist]

Reckon you're overpaying the kids for next season, first two years of deal are fixed n they can't be shuffled bonuses to encourage them to sign longer term deals.
Also thinking you're overpaying a few of the nuts n bolts mid tier journeymen type players. Super stars get paid the big shekels, nuts n bolts players get the privilege of playing in a successful side for slightly less shekels coz the pressure of being the expected match winner doesn't sit on their shoulders.

Massive effort to try n even fudge out some sort of salary structure for the list n well done for having a crack at it n lining yourself up to get shot down TBR.

 

[The Big Richo]

Reckon you're overpaying the kids for next season, first two years of deal are fixed n they can't be shuffled bonuses to encourage them to sign longer term deals.
Also thinking you're overpaying a few of the nuts n bolts mid tier journeymen type players. Super stars get paid the big shekels, nuts n bolts players get the privilege of playing in a successful side for slightly less shekels coz the pressure of being the expected match winner doesn't sit on their shoulders.

Once you extend them the initial 2 year deal is gone, TM and a new one kicks in.

We've done that with all 5 of last years draft crop, Gibcus is obviously a different category and will be being paid as a senior key defender. The reason I'm estimating higher for the other four is I think the reason they have signed them all so early is to lock in some relatively low deals while we are carrying those huge contracts for Dustin and Lynch.

There has to be a bit each way and I think it will be a bit of a lift in the second year with less of a lift in the third and fourth than they would otherwise get. In effect we are spreading the third and fourth year over the second year to help manage the payment.

Otherwise someone like Sonsie, if he has a good year next year would be looking for a 400k plus deal for the following two years. Right now if he plays well we have cut a great deal and if he doesn't play well he has cut a great deal. Win, win.

As for the other guys, don't forget the average wage for an AFL player is 372k. That's list wide, not just senior players, so if you are playing regular senior footy and not making 400k you are getting unders.

 

[turk-d-tiger]

The formula applied woule be what the GWS/GC teams would do but not teams like Richmond, Geelong, Hawks etc

Out Draftee's would be on regular draft contracts and their next 2 years (unless outstanding talent like Sam Walsh) would only go upto between $200k-$250k imo

We dont pay kids huge money and Shai Bolton was only on around $350k-$400k until 2021 when he extended 2 years to 2023

 

[TigerMasochist]

Once you extend them the initial 2 year deal is gone, TM and a new one kicks in.

When did the AFL allow that rule to kick in?? Even Tom Boyd only supposedly got paid his second years draftees wages when he went to the Woofers on the mega deal.
AFL originally set things up so that the kids only got paid their base rate n match payments to stop clubs manipulating around the payments structures. Any supposed or promised extra money for extended contracts or a Boyd type club shift had to be backed into their later years.

 

[tigerdell]

Once you extend them the initial 2 year deal is gone, TM and a new one kicks in.

We've done that with all 5 of last years draft crop, Gibcus is obviously a different category and will be being paid as a senior key defender. The reason I'm estimating higher for the other four is I think the reason they have signed them all so early is to lock in some relatively low deals while we are carrying those huge contracts for Dustin and Lynch.

There has to be a bit each way and I think it will be a bit of a lift in the second year with less of a lift in the third and fourth than they would otherwise get. In effect we are spreading the third and fourth year over the second year to help manage the payment.

Otherwise someone like Sonsie, if he has a good year next year would be looking for a 400k plus deal for the following two years. Right now if he plays well we have cut a great deal and if he doesn't play well he has cut a great deal. Win, win.

As for the other guys, don't forget the average wage for an AFL player is 372k. That's list wide, not just senior players, so if you are playing regular senior footy and not making 400k you are getting unders.

Interesting stuff TBR, top effort!

On the average of 372, the larger star contracts of Dusty and Big Tom would distort the average.
For example the 1st year draftee is roughly 100, so 270k under average.
But Dusty at 1.2m is 900k over. That more than equates to 3 draftees say Judso Brown and Banks.
Average is 370k but 1 is over and 3 under.

So that the average for most players would be more like 300, if we exclude the top 10 -20 in the comp.

So this gets some lower figures for established players such as Broad, Balta etc
I,d guess Drioli wouldve been 200 this year

Just my guess

 

[Little Ziggyadee]

Best run sporting club in the country.
Stars stay duds go
Easy.

 

[Ian4]

2022 salary cap figure 2022 was $13.5 million. I’m not sure what the 2023 salary cap figure is, but no doubt it’ll be higher.

When the new TV right deals kicks in in 2025, we should start seeing large cap increases that should be pushing $20 million by 2031 (TV deal has gone up by about 50%, so should we be expecting something similar for player salaries).

 

[Brodders17]

Once you extend them the initial 2 year deal is gone, TM and a new one kicks in.

I could be wrong, but i reckon the first 2 years are fixed for draftees, then the pay rises.

 

[TrialByVideo]

Once you extend them the initial 2 year deal is gone, TM and a new one kicks in.

Sorry to go off our club to another, but, in the case of Horne-Francis. ...... Kane Cornes' assertion that he's not really on a 6yr deal, it's 5yrs after next year as he's on 2nd year dough. .... is probably bullsht?

 

[TigerPort]

I think you have Martin's contract $ too high

At the time of new 7 year contract he was paid a larger first year salary and then high for a couple of years then his salary decreased over the remaining term.

Then when Lynch came in he was paid low initially and then increased as Dusty's decreased.

When Rance left the club made adjustments to these contracts to absorb the freed up $ from Rance's contract

So how you can only guess at the $ amounts. Would be interesting to see how the club work's the salary cap over the years

 

[Tortured Tiger]

All fair points, my rationale is that the standard rate for the draftees will go up next year and there will be some sugar for signing the longer deal so early.

Ryan is the same I think, can't see why he would sign so far out without a reasonable offer on the table. I think Mansell would have hoped to be an established senior player by the second year of his deal which would make that cheap.

I agree on Rioli and Short but I just can't find the money. On first draft I was more than 2 million over the cap, we are so unbalanced with the big contracts that the regular senior guys all seem well under. The only possibility I could see was that Rioli and Short were given the long deals so they could be seriously back-ended.

One I might be out on is Pickett, possible he is only on half of that, which would free up another 150k for Short and Rioli, but as I said I reckon I still need to find 500k - 1 million in savings to cover the flexible aspects of contracts, land that might be skinny. A rough look at our games list from last season says to me we would have paid out somewhere around 500k in match payments alone.

In fact you may of undersold Pickett. When he signed in 2020, Channel 7 reported that the deal was close to a million dollars for two years. I think this was to make up for very low wage sin his first two years when he actually needed financial assistance for his family.

 

[The Big Richo]

When did the AFL allow that rule to kick in?? Even Tom Boyd only supposedly got paid his second years draftees wages when he went to the Woofers on the mega deal.
AFL originally set things up so that the kids only got paid their base rate n match payments to stop clubs manipulating around the payments structures. Any supposed or promised extra money for extended contracts or a Boyd type club shift had to be backed into their later years.

I could be wrong, but i reckon the first 2 years are fixed for draftees, then the pay rises.

You definitely have a standard two year deal when you are drafted but like any contract you can renegotiate and extend terms at any point. Cam Rayner for example, extended bu two years at Brisbane immediately after being drafted.

In the Tom Boyd case I believe the Bulldogs kept him on the low wage for the first year because they couldn't fit him in any other way, and then paid him about 1.7 million the following year when they had some space clear. I'd imagine that was more to do with the unexpected nature of the trade happening which was well outside their planning.

I think you have Martin's contract $ too high

I'm pretty confident on being within 100k on him because the AFL release de-identified data on the payments each player is getting and the top end is easy to pick.

In fact you may of undersold Pickett. When he signed in 2020, Channel 7 reported that the deal was close to a million dollars for two years. I think this was to make up for very low wage sin his first two years when he actually needed financial assistance for his family.

In my first draft I had him at 450k. As with lots of them I just can't find the cash. It could also depend on the nature of his contract, he may well have match payments and bonuses in play, but I can't find the cash for those either!

 

[Brodders17]

You definitely have a standard two year deal when you are drafted but like any contract you can renegotiate and extend terms at any point. Cam Rayner for example, extended bu two years at Brisbane immediately after being drafted.

According to Sam McClure, Rayner was paid about $100k for the first 2 years of his contract, then about $500k for the next 2.

Top pick's new deal a lucrative one: McClure

Cam Rayner’s contract extension with Brisbane will see him earn close to $1 million combined across the final two seasons of the deal according to Sam McClure.

www.sen.com.au

 

[The Big Richo]

According to Sam McClure, Rayner was paid about $100k for the first 2 years of his contract, then about $500k for the next 2.

It all depends on the deal the player and the club agree to. Rayner's incentive to sign is really good money in year 3 and 4.

We don't have the capacity to do that so I'm certain we would have to sweeten the deal across the board, otherwise there would be no incentive for a player to sign an extension when they did.

The only argument is security but the player is already protected in the case of injury and as a top 30 pick who is doing well you are guaranteed another contract so the security is minimal.

Prohibiting a player from signing a more lucrative second year contract would constitute a restraint of trade and the player would seek arbitration and win.