GFs are really Goal-Kicking Contests | PUNT ROAD END | Richmond Tigers Forum
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GFs are really Goal-Kicking Contests

martyshire

martyshire

^^ Jack Graham that is
Aug 11, 2007
1,664
8
Rowville...or maybe London
Just discovered an interesting stat...

Since 2002, only once has the team that won the GF kicked less accurately than their opposition (accuracy defined as the % of goals from total scoring shots). That was the Eagles, who beat the Swans by only 1 point (12.13 to 12.12).

While we all know good goal kicking = good footy, over 12 years you would expect more exceptions. For argument's sake I looked at round 1 this year and found 5 exceptions!!!

So why is goal kicking accuracy such a good predictor of who wins the GF (so much more than in the regular season)?

Theory 1 - teams are more likely to rush behinds when winning a GF than when winning a regular game

Theory 2 - teams losing a grand final get desperate are more likely to take pot shots from unrealistic places than they are if they are losing a regular game

Theory 3 - teams that miss shots in GFs lament their missed opportunities during grand finals and this affects their confidence and causes them to play worse (or has the opposite effect on the opposition), and the effect of this is much more substantial in GFs than regular games because the stakes are higher.

Other theories welcome...

Let's hope for some accurate Eagles this week!
 
By definition it's 1st v 2nd.
The two teams are always closely matched, so they are more likely than in other games to have the same or similar number of scoring shots.
So the more accurate team wins.
If 1st plays 18th, 1st might kick worse but they will have so many more scoring shots it is less likely to matter.
It's similar to why the rate of draws in Grand Finals is probably greater than in regular games.

It would be interesting to see if the same applies to other games between teams similarly equally matched but maybe not as high, e.g. 9th v 10th, 17th v 18th.
 
23.21.159 said:
By definition it's 1st v 2nd.
The two teams are always closely matched, so they are more likely than in other games to have the same or similar number of scoring shots.
So the more accurate team wins.
If 1st plays 18th, 1st might kick worse but they will have so many more scoring shots it is less likely to matter.
It's similar to why the rate of draws in Grand Finals is probably greater than in regular games.

It would be interesting to see if the same applies to other games between teams similarly equally matched but maybe not as high, e.g. 9th v 10th, 17th v 18th.
Click to expand...

Ha, yep that would be quite an analysis!

Your theory is logical and I'm sure it is correct longer term, but there are plenty of recent examples (2003, 2007, 2008, 2010 replay, 2011, 2014) where the teams didn't have a similar number of shots, yet the pattern is the same.
 
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