Geelong's finishing position: have I got this right? | PUNT ROAD END | Richmond Tigers Forum
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Geelong's finishing position: have I got this right?

Number8

Number8

Tiger Superstar
Oct 12, 2010
1,353
3,400
Richmond
I ain't no mathematician, so apologies to the smart people here.

I'm trying to determine the likelihood of where their (our) first round draft pick will fall**.

• If Geelong loses this week, the Cats finish fifth (the lowest they can finish)
• If Geelong wins this week, they are among the last four and cannot finish lower than fourth

• If Geelong loses its prelim and Brisbane/Footscray loses its prelim, the Cats finish third
• If Geelong loses its prelim and Port loses its prelim, the Cats finish fourth

• If Geelong wins its prelim, it cannot finish lower than second

Have I got that all right?

If so, here are my random best guesses at where they'll finish based on them being, say, 60/40 to beat GWS:

Fifth—40% (draft pick #14)
Fourth—15% (draft pick #15)
Third—30% (draft pick #16)
Second—10% (draft pick #17)
First—5% (draft pick #18)

** Not allowing for compensation picks, etc.
 
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Taking this a step further ...

• We received Geelong's 2021 first round pick in exchange for our 2020 first round pick
• The Cats took Max Holmes with that pick, which ended up being pick 20

• It was pick 20 because we traded up in the first round
• That pick was originally St Kilda's, and we received it as part of the deal that sent Jack Higgins to Moorabbin (swap of first round picks)

• Our original first round pick from 2020 ended up blowing out to an astonishing pick 26 once all the AFL's draft gifts were handed out to the also-rans
• The Saints took Matthew McLeod-Allison with that pick

So ...

• This year, we know the first round will probably blow out by two picks (Darcy and Daicos)
• We can, therefore, expect our pick 7 to become pick 9
• In addition, Geelong's pick, which we now hold, could become anything from 16 to 20

The net result is that the worst we can do is to have traded 2020's pick 20 for 2021's pick 20.

The interesting side note is that, you would assume, the Tigers saw nothing left on the board in 2020 that was worth spending a first rounder on. The early evidence probably favours us.

After Holmes was taken at pick 20, the most likely prospects (on very early form) are Bowey at 21, Poulter at 30, McCreery at 44, Edwards at 52 and Ford at 56 (NB: the likes of Gulden and Downie were not available, being academy players).
 
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Number8 said:
I ain't no mathematician, so apologies to the smart people here.

I'm trying to determine the likelihood of where their (our) first round draft pick will fall**.

• If Geelong loses this week, the Cats finish fifth (the lowest they can finish)
• If Geelong wins this week, they are among the last four and cannot finish lower than fourth

• If Geelong loses its prelim and Brisbane/Footscray loses its prelim, the Cats finish third
• If Geelong loses its prelim and Port loses its prelim, the Cats finish fourth

• If Geelong wins its prelim, it cannot finish lower than second

Have I got that all right?

If so, here are my random best guesses at where they'll finish based on them being, say, 60/40 to beat GWS:

Fifth—40% (draft pick #14)
Fourth—15% (draft pick #15)
Third—30% (draft pick #16)
Second—10% (draft pick #17)
First—5% (draft pick #18)

** Not allowing for compensation picks, etc.
Click to expand...

I like my probabilities served as an entreé 8'y,

so I'll participate.

The bookies rarely get probabilities wrong,

Normally, I think gambling pervades out sport enough on its own, and I stick to the betting threads,

but this is maths, and we are just being collegiate,

so I suggest them (rounded up) to build your matrix .

Cats to win Semi $1.5 ($3 to lose)
Cats to win Prelim $3
Cats to win Flag $6
 
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So if Collingwood have to match a Nth bid bid to get Daicos do they still keep their 2nd pick???? Giving them effectivley pick 1 and 3 or if say they use pick 2 because Nth take somebody else at 1 do they get pick 2 and maybe another top 10 pick becuase Carlton (for example) bid on Daicos. This system is soooooooo broken and unfair.
 
percyms said:
So if Collingwood have to match a Nth bid bid to get Daicos do they still keep their 2nd pick???? Giving them effectivley pick 1 and 3 or if say they use pick 2 because Nth take somebody else at 1 do they get pick 2 and maybe another top 10 pick becuase Carlton (for example) bid on Daicos. This system is soooooooo broken and unfair.
Click to expand...
GWS have pick 2. Collingwood traded it to them last year.
 
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Let's hope Melbourne does the right thing next week and Smash the Cats... that will give us pick 15? , 16 ? ( before Father and son pics )
 
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DjJazzyPete said:
Let's hope Melbourne does the right thing next week and Smash the Cats... that will give us pick 15? , 16 ? ( before Father and son pics )
Click to expand...
Yep, best we can hope for now is the Cats finish 4th, but 3rd looking the most likely outcome (i.e. Dees and Port win).

Them finishing third delivers us pick #16, which will push out to #18 with Darcy and Daicos matched bids.
 
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Number8 said:
Yep, best we can hope for now is the Cats finish 4th, but 3rd looking the most likely outcome (i.e. Dees and Port win).

Them finishing third delivers us pick #16, which will push out to #18 with Darcy and Daicos matched bids.
Click to expand...

Unless Bulldogs finish 15th and have to use that on Darcy.........or they can trade it to us.......

So the pick would only go out by one to #17
 
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I'm sure at the time we made the trade we'd have expected the Cats to fall away this season. Then the rule changes came in post draft that benefitted their list & game plan. Yet another thing we can than SHocking for.
 
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At worst, if Geecheat win the premiership - heaven forbid - then it’s pick 18 pushed out to 20 because of f/s’s.

In 2020 we had pick 20 after F/A comps.

2021 is a better Draft, it’s looking, so it’s still a win for us regardless. The only thing that might stuff us up is any free agent compo for the Swans if Parker leaves ?

Edit: announced this afternoon that Parker has re signed. Good.
 
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With the pussies diving out of contention
Do we end up with draft pick 15 or 16 ?
 
Harry said:
Doesn't matter as dogs will jump the queue to take Darcy. It'll be pick 17 after the FS picks. Picks 9 and 17 effectively
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Yeah ok H.... maybe I should've said we're one spot better off should the dogs win tonight.
 
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