Dimma in his Thursday media call was asked about regrets about trading out high draft picks for the GWS pair.. Interesting response and one I reckon he's probably hit the nail on the head. Analysis of draft picks post 2000 shows there's a 1 in 3 chance of getting a 100+ games player in the draft. Dimma said he'd take an established player over 'magic beans' (unknown quantity) any day of the week. In saying that I thought it was an overreach to go after the second of the GWS pair but at least we knew what we're in for.
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Established Player vs Magic Beans
- Thread starter Frank Booth
- Start date
Tarranto has slotted in well and showing our established stars up most games but Hopper is a strange one. He doesn't seem to a do a lot but generally is sound when he does yet hasn't shown the spark many of us hoped although it is still too early to bag him. He seems an anonymous player who works but not in a very visible way. Going for the GWS pair does seem a risk but the signs are it will pay off later on in the season
Some of us have been saying the same thing. Draft picks are highly overrated.
Especially when we have them.
Either we can't pick them or we are just shocking at developing them.
Tony Braxton-Hicks
There are no stupid ideas, just stupid people
Yes when you are serially picking in the late teens. This year that Hopper pick is looking much more in the range where the beans really can be magic.
Will say it again. You shouldn't give up 1st round draft choices for established B grade footballers. Hopper is best 22 no doubt about it but is not an A grade player. Taranto is close to A grade but his disposal only gives him a B+ I reckon. Just my opinion but still believe we paid overs. Would prefer going to the draft.
Agree. 1st round picks are where you can nab generational players eg Martin, Cotch, JR etc. Outside that you are looking at your B graders with a sprinkle of A. Without those first round picks you may nab a premiership if everything goes right in that year but you will struggle to contend for years like we did without those generational players.
In hindsight the Taranto call was the right one but reckon we should have gone for a cheaper alternative instead of Hopper. Someone like Mitchell and kept the 1st round pick which could be a Top 3 with the way we are going.
That would have given the rebuild a good kickstart.
What if it’s all part of a much bigger deal. You pay slightly overs for Hopper but getting him and Taranto means you get Himmelberg as a free agent in part because of their long standing friendship.
If that’s the case then an argument could be made that we paid unders for Hopper and Taranto.
Tricky period for the club. Need the young uns to step up. Magic beans not working as quickly as we would like....
Getting Tim and Hopp was crucially important and for what its worth I reckon we paid a fair price.
Getting Tim and Hopp was crucially important and for what its worth I reckon we paid a fair price.
Accountants are good at expected value.
Expected value says trade picks for players.
Taleb says black swan events happen every year.
Keep draft picks for the black swan.
Jack says buy beans.
The Giants live on top of the beanstalk cloud but fell off because the beans didn't get planted.
All makes sense as long as Jack doesn't join the recruiting department.
Expected value says trade picks for players.
Taleb says black swan events happen every year.
Keep draft picks for the black swan.
Jack says buy beans.
The Giants live on top of the beanstalk cloud but fell off because the beans didn't get planted.
All makes sense as long as Jack doesn't join the recruiting department.
You can make an argument we paid unders without the HH factor. If we get the spoon making that argument is a much tougher gig.
Bit misleading. As an example, from draft 10 years ago 22 of 36 (1st 2 rounds) played over 100 games, 27 over 70 games. By 3rd round it was 1 in 3. It's going to cost us during a period when many older players are and will be retiring. They'll be replaced by much more speculative youngsters from round 3 onwards.
Draft picks have not helped Ess, Carl, norf, St kilda blah blah.
Without TT and Hopper we would not have even been competitive this year.
Don’t really agree with Hardwick on this one
We used to mess up our top 5 picks, once upon a time
But the last couple of times we had them our recruiters delivered Hardwick three flags
There’s your Taranto types who can be great players in their own right.
But then there’s Cotchin and Martin.
Nah this is spin from Dimma
We needed that pick this year.
We used to mess up our top 5 picks, once upon a time
But the last couple of times we had them our recruiters delivered Hardwick three flags
There’s your Taranto types who can be great players in their own right.
But then there’s Cotchin and Martin.
Nah this is spin from Dimma
We needed that pick this year.
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Who will be the better player? Taranto or Hopper?
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Round 8: the stuck in the Burnley tunnel games.
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