Did we come to play? Proof that defensive work rate is the decisive factor.

[Spirit of Jack]

Games like we play against the Hawks drive me nuts, and its clear from the PRE comments, I'm not alone! How can we destroy GWS in a grand final just nine months ago and then three games into this season, serve this up? So I did some analysis to distract myself from the pain.

Well, the data says in simple terms that the Hawks came to play, and we didn’t! I hear this from commentators and supporters all the time. In fact I’ve railed against this notion because it feels too simplistic, surely talent and game plans are just as important? Well the data says the latter is true, better teams with better game plans will prevail - but only as long as the intensity is there.

So here is a brief analytics based look at why AFL teams win and lose. If you don't like data, you wont, like this. ;-) I'll pre-empt and say that I can only prove correlation, not causation!

As I stated earlier, in any given game AFL teams have different;

• game plans (style and structure)
• talent levels (skill, speed, endurance and size)
• Intensity levels (motivation and fitness)

However in modern footy the variable that is proving most impactful is the last one, intensity.

Teams with superior skills will win...if their intensity is close to their opposition. Game plans can beat more talented teams...but only if it is coupled with intensity. More specifically defensive intensity.

In 2020 so far there is a 100% correlation between a superior defensive work rate and winning the game. Defensive work rate can be measured by the average speed of a team's defensive movement over the course of a game.

Let's look at some more detailed defensive work rate data for 2020 games. A good place to look is at underdogs that have beaten solid pre-game favourites...

Dogs 8.5kmh def Giants 7.7kmh Winner +0.8kmh Average Speed in Defence (ASD)
Hawks 8.4kmh def Tigers 7.4kmh Winner +1.0kmh
Suns 8.0kmh def Eagles 7.0kmh Winner +1.0kmh
Roos 7.5kmh def Giants 7.3kmh Winner +0.2kmh
Saints 8.3kmh def Dogs 7.4kmh Winner +0.9kmh
Hawks 7.6kmh def Lions 6.8kmh Winner +0.8kmh

That's a superior 0.8kmh ASD for the winner. Now looking at teams with strong bounce back wins after a disappointing loss, let's take the Hawks and the Dogs comeback upset wins in Round 3.

Hawks Rd 2 def by Cats 6.8kmh ASD
Hawks Rd 3 def Tigers 8.4kmh ASD That's + 1.6kmh!

Dogs Rd 2 def by Saints 7.4kmh ASD
Dogs Rd 3 def Giants 8.5kmh ASD That's +1.1kmh!

Bringing this back to the Tigers, the club regained premiership glory off the back of a superior defensive work rate in 2017. In the 2017 finals where the team took it to another level our average speed in defence was +0.8kmh.

Despite being the most talented team in 2018, with the best game plan, there were bad signs when our defensive work rate dropped off at the tail end of the season. In concerning narrow wins against the Dogs and Cats we were -0.8kmh and -0.3kmh respectively. In the PF loss to the Pies we were also -0.3kmh.

In our 2019 finals campaign we were +0.7kmh faster. Overall last year in wins against quality opposition we were +0.5kmh faster and in bad losses we were -1.0kmh slower.

However, coming back to the 2020 season and what I also discovered is that all work-rate is not the same. That is there is also a 95% correlation between superior offensive work rate and losing the game. In 2020 to date, 19 out of 20 winners have had a slower average speed in attack!

That's right, if players are moving faster in attack than their opposition, they will likely lose.

So when it comes down to prioritising defensive running or offensive running - what are coaches going to prioritise? Defensive running, because that is what wins games.

So if you want to win in modern footy, have a good list, have a solid game plan, but more than anything, bring the defensive work rate!

 

[daniel30]

No need to panic tho to much over reaction from our fans.Without a doubt work rate wasn't there to many passengers last 2 weeks and dumb footy at times.Get back to basics our game plan is build on hard work and everybody doing there job.

 

[Punt n Brunton]

The camera in the stands behind the goals at each end told the story for me. It clearly showed a lack of run offensively. There were so many occasions we had the ball deep in defence and NOBODY up the ground was working hard to create space or present options, so we just kick down the line. Forward entries are the same. Our slow ball movement allows the opposition to flood defensively, and the forward 50 becomes so crowded we have no choice but to lob it in and hope for the best.

Hard running (offensively and defensively) creates space, fluidity of ball movement, and ultimately options going inside forward 50. Our first two round have been severely lacking. The big question is, is it a problem through lack of preparation, or is there a switch we are yet to flick on? Has the season been meticulously planned out from a peak fitness perspective, and we're holding back for now?

 

[Tigers of Old]

First question I would have asked Hardwick.

Our signature pressure was non existent & the low tackle count spoke volumes.
I’d suggest the answer is a resounding ‘no’.

Second question would be ‘Why?’.

 

[TigerFurious]

Geez, we were completely off our game in nearly every facet and the best the Hawks could do was beat us by 5 goals. I remember the bad old days way back in 2016 (and some parts of 2017) when if we were that bad we get done by 15 goals.

GWS could only manage 4 goals and a paltry 29 inside 50s last night. Last week, West Coasts GPS numbers against GCS were worse than a practice match. The break has clearly effected clubs differently for better or worse.

It’s a shortened season not a short season. Plenty of games left to find form.

 

[Mr Brightside]

We definitely don’t look our normal manic self, dosent take much loss in pressure or concentration in this league to get rolled

 

[Smoking Aces]

The game style we play is taxing.
Are we simply cooked and no longer have the hunger to sustain it?
This week against the Saints will answer that.

 

[Spirit of Jack]

The game style we play is taxing.
Are we simply cooked and no longer have the hunger to sustain it?
This week against the Saints will answer that.

Agreed, its one thing to know what to do, another to be able to do it.

I think Hardwick's statements of early 2019 and 2020 that we don't want to be playing our best footy now is code for - we don't want to have to flog ourselves with defensive actions early in the season.

Last year ironically went perfectly, young blood came in to cover injuries and ran their guts out to stay in the team - then the classy veterans came in fresh and ready to run hard all the way through to the finals.

I reckon we should inject more youth (that have an engine) and they should have only one instruction - defensive gut busting running. Similar to Graham debuting in late 2017 and Ross, Stack, Baker early last year.

 

[Jonesracing82]

Think it's just that we are clearly underdone, It's now a trend in both games since the return

 

[Spirit of Jack]

In the three Saturday games the hardest working defensive teams all won again. Pies +1kmh, Blues +1.1kmh and Lions +0.9kmh.
Also the 3 fastest attacking teams all lost again.

Its a simple formula, use your petrol tickets for defence not offence. Carlton almost ran themselves ragged in the first three quarters hence were out on their feet allowing Geelong almost to steal it.

PS I am going to do a Fonz and admit I was very wro, wro, wro, wrong about Brandon Ellis' value to our team.

 

[zippadeee]

The game style we play is taxing.
Are we simply cooked and no longer have the hunger to sustain it?
This week against the Saints will answer that.

Not sure about answering it against stkilda.
Stkilda are a very mixball team, very few stars but surrounded by AAA duds.
Not sure win or lose you can use stkikda as a measuring stick.

 

[yandb]

In the three Saturday games the hardest working defensive teams all won again. Pies +1kmh, Blues +1.1kmh and Lions +0.9kmh.
Also the 3 fastest attacking teams all lost again.

Its a simple formula, use your petrol tickets for defence not offence. Carlton almost ran themselves ragged in the first three quarters hence were out on their feet allowing Geelong almost to steal it.

PS I am going to do a Fonz and admit I was very wro, wro, wro, wrong about Brandon Ellis' value to our team.

Nice work Jack, the only issue I have is we play a totally different game style to most other clubs.

Our forward line seems to work best when we bring the ball in quickly.

This year we have been very slow and have paid the price.

Think back to the Hawks match in the first three quarters we brought the ball forward like treacle.

In the last quarter we put the pedal down and were more than competitive.

I have never seen these stats before Jack, is it possible to check these stats for Richmond for the second half of last season?

 

[DavidSSS]

In the three Saturday games the hardest working defensive teams all won again. Pies +1kmh, Blues +1.1kmh and Lions +0.9kmh.
Also the 3 fastest attacking teams all lost again.

Its a simple formula, use your petrol tickets for defence not offence. Carlton almost ran themselves ragged in the first three quarters hence were out on their feet allowing Geelong almost to steal it.

PS I am going to do a Fonz and admit I was very wro, wro, wro, wrong about Brandon Ellis' value to our team.

It is a good stat, I also always look at the percentage scored from inside 50 entries, it can be very revealing. In the Geelong/Carlton game it was 51% each, not good defence. When Richmond play well we can get that well below 40% for our opposition. On Thursday we were scoring 33% of the time we entered forward 50, Hawthorn 46%. It is weird at the moment as I notice GWS scored a higher percentage of times inside 50 than the Western Doggies, most games go with this stat. Adelaide (half time) are currently at 21%, gotta say that must be a combination of rubbish offence and good defence because that is very low.

DS

 

[Spirit of Jack]

I have never seen these stats before Jack, is it possible to check these stats for Richmond for the second half of last season?

In the final 12 games after the bye in 2019 (all wins), we had a faster average speed in defence than the opposition in every game. We averaged 8.1 kmh, the opposition 7.6 kmh.

 

[craig]

Forget defensive work rate and offensive work rate ...........we had NO WORK RATE

 

[leon]

However in modern footy the variable that is proving most impactful is the last one, intensity.

Teams with superior skills will win...if their intensity is close to their opposition. Game plans can beat more talented teams...but only if it is coupled with intensity. More specifically defensive intensity.

In 2020 so far there is a 100% correlation between a superior defensive work rate and winning the game. Defensive work rate can be measured by the average speed of a team's defensive movement over the course of a game.


However, coming back to the 2020 season and what I also discovered is that all work-rate is not the same. That is there is also a 95% correlation between superior offensive work rate and losing the game. In 2020 to date, 19 out of 20 winners have had a slower average speed in attack!

That's right, if players are moving faster in attack than their opposition, they will likely lose.

 

[leon]

Appreciate your diligent and valuable analysis, SoJ. I totally accept the first premise re defensive running and intensity of effort.

But I'm struggling to decode the 2nd premise re attack. Why is it better offence to go slower e.g. making more errors from turnovers, or kicking to the oppo's spare? So it's better to take some time to allow team-mates to get forward and even up or increase the numbers?

 

[tigre garçon]

Very nicely covered off Spirit of Jack...

Not a doubt in the world that our defensive intensity has been our saving grace, irrefutably our signature strategy over the past 3 seasons. Like other pundits on PRE I am impatiently awaiting the team to click in 2020, maybe today against the Saints will be the day.

Interesting reflection re Brandon Ellis too... his form of high speed, sustained bipedal perambulation originating from his intestines is sorely missed I have to agree!

I am somewhat puzzled by the offensive work rate 'anomaly,' for want of a better word perhaps. Without any analysis, I had considered that the likes of Rioli, Butler, Castagna etc. as those small forwards with their manic pressure/pace (intensity) in moving the ball forward or keeping it in the forward 50 amounted for something in winning matches over the journey. Of course this group's offensive success has always been ably supported by the team's centre line players and midfielder group.

 

[UKTiger]

It seems to me that the changes in coaches and the style / methods of coaching has meant it is taking a long time for the players to adjust to

 

[Tony Braxton-Hicks]

Before the season resumed, a lot was made of the potential for injury given the short training block players had when iso ended. I wonder if the club was more cautious than others and we're seeing the results through poorer effort.