Can we still win the Premiership - there are precidents!

[OldTiger1967]

Can we be the 5th team to lose their 1st final but go on and win the Premiership?

The other 4 being

BRISBANE 2003

QF: Collingwood 9.12.66 d Brisbane 7.9.51 at the MCG

SF: Brisbane 18.16.124 d Adelaide 12.10.82 at the Gabba

PF: Brisbane 14.16.100 d Sydney 8.8.56 at ANZ Stadium

GF: Brisbane 20.14.134 d Collingwood 12.12.84 at the MCG

SYDNEY 2005

QF: West Coast 10.9.69 d Sydney 10.5.65 at Subiaco

SF: Sydney 7.14.56 d Geelong 7.11.53 at the SCG

PF: Sydney 15.6.96 d St Kilda 9.11.65 at the MCG

GF: Sydney 8.10.58 d West Coast 7.14.54 at the MCG

WEST COAST 2006

QF: Sydney 13.7.85 d West Coast 12.12.84 at Subiaco

SF: West Coast 16.17.113 d Western Bulldogs 5.9.39 at Subiaco

PF: West Coast 11.19.85 d Adelaide 11.9.75 at AAMI Stadium

GF: West Coast 12.13.85 d Sydney 12.12.84 at the MCG

HAWTHORN 2015

QF: West Coast 14.12.96 d Hawthorn 9.10.64 at Subiaco

SF: Hawthorn 21.9.135 d Adelaide 8.13.61 at the MCG

PF: Hawthorn 15.4.94 d Fremantle 10.7.67 at Subiaco

GF: Hawthorn 16.11.107 d West Coast 8.13.61 at the MCG

 

[year of the tiger]

Interesting that in each case the team that one the premiership reversed the result of the result from the QF.

Does anyone know whether there has been a time where the two teams from the same QF played off in a GF with the result being the same as the QF? ie we make the GF and then lose to Brisbane again.

 

[23.21.159]

If a team that loses the QF makes the GF, the only teams they can possibly play in the GF are the team that beat them in the QF or a team that beats that team in the PF, and by definition they have come from an SF so are a lesser team. So you would expect that in the majority of cases, a team losing a QF will meet that same team in the GF.

The only time a QF result has been repeated in a GF is 2018, WCE d Collingwood.

 

[23.21.159]

Here are the stats about the 40 Qualifying Final losers in the 20 years of the current system:
4 won the Grand Final.
2 lost it.
26 Lost the Preliminary Final.
8 Lost the Semi - straight sets.

Curiosities:
Of the six that got to the Grand Final, four won it. The only two to lose it were Sydney in 2016 and Collingwood in 2018.
Six of the eight to have gone out in straight sets have been since 2014. Only two before then.
So of the 12 Qualifying final losers since 2014, only three have taken the expected route (losing the Preliminary Final).

 

[LeeToRainesToRoach]

Interesting that in each case the team that one the premiership reversed the result of the result from the QF.

Does anyone know whether there has been a time where the two teams from the same QF played off in a GF with the result being the same as the QF? ie we make the GF and then lose to Brisbane again.

Collingwood lost to West Coast twice in 2018 (QF and GF).

The only examples that didn't involve a GF loss are

1992 Bulldogs lost to Geelong in the QF and PF
1985 Bulldogs lost to Hawthorn in QF and PF
1982 Hawthorn lost to Carlton in QF and PF

There are 29 other cases of losing a GF to the same opponent as an earlier loss - most involving a semi-final defeat. Richmond lost twice to South Melbourne in 1933 and Fitzroy in 1944. Carlton had two cracks at us in 1921 (challenge system) and 1932, and North in 1974.

 

[snags]

You may call me nostradumarse but I've had a feeling in my waters the whole time that we'd lose week 1 but still conquer the summit. This was the one to lose. I think it'll galvanise the side rather than had it been a weak kill and business as usual. You need a bit of adversity when you're building a dynasty

 

[kiwitiger]

Interesting that in each case the team that one the premiership reversed the result of the result from the QF.

Does anyone know whether there has been a time where the two teams from the same QF played off in a GF with the result being the same as the QF? ie we make the GF and then lose to Brisbane again.

I honestly think if we made the GF and played Brisbane , we would beat them next time , we wouldnt play that poorly again and i dont think they have another gear to go to ,

obviously we have to win this week first , but Port in a prelim is the game that bothers me

 

[daniel30]

Without a doubt we can up to the players now the talent is there now we need the want and application.Maybe the loss we needed to reset and wakeup that it's just not going to happen.

 

[Bullarto Tiger]

Richmond will go B2B in 2020

 

[shawry]

Did the crows have a really bad loss to the demons in either 1997 or 1998 then go on to win the gf? Have a memory of that.

 

[Quickdraw]

Look out Saints! We will come roaring back into contention.

 

[Jake]

Did the crows have a really bad loss to the demons in either 1997 or 1998 then go on to win the gf? Have a memory of that.

1998, 8 goals.

 

[kiwitiger]

Different code but similar principles ,

Melbourne storm lost to st george first final in a disappointing display , then got on a roll before beating them in the GF in 99, for their first premiership

 

[YinnarTiger]

Different code but similar principles ,

Melbourne storm lost to st george first final in a disappointing display , then got on a roll before beating them in the GF in 99, for their first premiership

It was also a different final 8 system as was the Adelaide one in 1998.

 

[LeeToRainesToRoach]

It was also a different final 8 system as was the Adelaide one in 1998.

Was different in that Adelaide finished outside the top four, but virtually had a double chance as 8th would've had to beat 1st and 7th beat 2nd for them to be eliminated. I guess the principle applies.

 

[tigertim]

Here are the stats about the 40 Qualifying Final losers in the 20 years of the current system:
4 won the Grand Final.
2 lost it.
26 Lost the Preliminary Final.
8 Lost the Semi - straight sets.

So historically these numbers don’t auger well for us to win the granny. Still a chance of course but historically the odds are against us (and Geelong).

The interesting number here is that 26 of the 40 teams lost the PF. I wonder why that is? Too tired?

 

[YinnarTiger]

The interesting number here is that 26 of the 40 teams lost the PF. I wonder why that is? Too tired?

It's the most expected result based on probabilities. If you lose a QF, your rank is then either 3 or 4. That is maintained if you subsequently lose the PF. The outliers are final ranks of 1, 2, 5 and 6.

 

[TigerMasochist]

The interesting number here is that 26 of the 40 teams lost the PF. I wonder why that is? Too tired?

Could well be. Most of those finals would be before the AFL invented the pre finals bye. Wherein getting the weeks break before the prelim to freshen up from a long season was the bonus advantage of the finals.

 

[year of the tiger]

Here are the stats about the 40 Qualifying Final losers in the 20 years of the current system:
4 won the Grand Final.
2 lost it.
26 Lost the Preliminary Final.
8 Lost the Semi - straight sets.

Curiosities:
Of the six that got to the Grand Final, four won it. The only two to lose it were Sydney in 2016 and Collingwood in 2018.
Six of the eight to have gone out in straight sets have been since 2014. Only two before then.
So of the 12 Qualifying final losers since 2014, only three have taken the expected route (losing the Preliminary Final).

thanks - so a 1 in 10 chance but it has been done so I will take it.

Also, with looking at all the results - you get the feeling more stranger things have happened more recently, like as you say, not following the traditional route of losing the Prelim - I take that as well.

 

[DavidSSS]

Unlike last year, this year both first and second won their Qualifying Finals.

We came third after the home and away so clearly need to go up a gear to win the flag.

This team can do it but none of the games will be easy.

Last year we had the wood on Brisbane, they have got better as expected. We managed to get over Geelong after they played very well in the first half of the Preliminary Final and we had to step it up a gear to win that one. GWS really were a bit knackered by the Grand Final which showed in the score.

Time to reset, go up a gear, play with more discipline and take the opportunity we earned by finishing top 4.

DS