the bad news is we have problems across the board at the moment - attack, midfield, defence. the good news is there is a definable reason for each critical failure and there's absolutely light at the end of the tunnel for 2019!
ATTACK:
Plan A: plan A is to deliver it quickly into F50 where a key forward will bring it down to fast crumbers who will either generate a shot at goal or trap the ball in for further turnover opportunities. this requires at least one smart key forward who is good in the air and on ground (ie Jack Riewoldt), a second marking forward to take the heat off Jack, make space, etc. (ie Tom Lynch or Josh Caddy)
The Problem: our top key forward is out. Without Jack, we are left with one outnumbered key forward who is low on confidence and no experience in bringing the ball down to areas that are dangerous for small forwards. As a result, teams are sweating on the long ball to Tom and setting up behind and lateral to the air ball. Our small forwards are being sucked too high due to lack of midfield movement (see MIDFIELD) and aren't getting to Tom in time. To further compound matters, our best small forward is enduring a run of poor form. Lastly, Josh Caddy, nominally the second, space-making marking support, has been required in the midfield.
Solution: Bring in another tall. Easier said than done when Callum Moore is injured, Mabior Chol is iffy and Noah Balta is best suited roaming mid and ruck support and such a young, raw age. So we wait until Jack's back - then Tom can resume his critical role without three blokes sweating on him, Jack can be Jack, forward entries will again at least be halved, if not put in the path of a dangerous small forward. Critically, our smallish midfield and rance-less defence will have less oppo inside 50s to contend with.
Prognosis: when Jack is ready, things will improve markedly. A trickle-down effect that will help the crumbers regain form and influence and allow Tom to go about the business of simply kicking goals.
MIDFIELD:
Plan A: Plan A is to muck in hard at centre bounces and scramble the ball forward, but traditionally we don't lose sleep if we concede clearances because we set up to hunt the oppo ball carrier and have the best intercept backline in the league to mop up scrappy oppo entries. When we win the ball we like to run it through Martin or Lambert and, failing that, push it / flick it forward at every opportunity.
The Problem: It's fine to concede centre clearances, but there's a critical point where you're so small and inexperienced that you simply cannot put enough pressure on the ball to cause turnovers. Losing Ross, Graham's indifferent form, Cotchy's hamstrings, Titch being pulled, Nank (a ground pressure player) going down, Lambert out, all have conspired to cripple our very effectively workmanlike midfield (I mean that in the best possible way). Put simply, we're currently too small and slow to pile the kind of fierce, four-quarter pressure that wins us games. When confidence is down, you work back too much and don't run forward enough to take risks. As a result, our forward crumbers are getting sucked too high and cannot reach Lynch in time to assist with the air ball.
Solution: Fixable, but only to a point. I feel we need to alter things tactically with the advent of 6-6-6, which allows teams to capitalise on elite ruckman and dominant ball winners. Ross and Lambert are critical ins. Ross, surprisingly so. Lambert is just a consummate link man, so smart, so mighty over four quarters. Vlastuin needs to play back. Caddy needs to play forward. Balta must run through the midfield. With cotch also back after the break and hopefully Edwards back in the middle, I feel we can at least break even here on the run to the finals.
Prognosis: Bleak in the short term until we get Lambert, Ross and Cotchin back. Things will slowly get better as the season turns and the medical room empties out.
DEFENCE:
Plan A: Stay at home and spoil. Keep structures and trust that Alex Rance will make ground to support. Plan A is to absorb oppo entries, hopefully of the scrappy kind once run through the meat grinder of a pressure-cooker midfield, and repel to the wings / boundary as necessary to setup again. Once we win the ball outside D50 we run forward aggressively, but the experienced backline keeps structure and prevents fast movement the other way.
The Problem: There is simply no one as good as Rance at a) reading the play b) reaching the contest and c) impacting the contest so physically. Grimes and Vlastuin try but do not have the physical characteristics that Rance has. This is a massive shortfall. The result is a backline now under threat with each oppo entry. Injuries to Houli, Short and Astbury haven't helped. Yes, Stack has been a revelation, but I actually think he's still yet to fully learn how to be cohesive with the back six. Understandable for a first-year player thrown in. All up, the central plank of our defence has been removed and we are seriously struggling to plug the massive gap. The trickle-down effect is out of this world. Oppo teams are now learning that they can kick it long with impunity, whereas before they were trying to pinpoint leading targets in order to avoid Rance.
The Solution: Bolster the midfield with ball-winning talent. Not harrassing / pressuring talent, ball-winning talent so we don't have to put up with so many oppo entries. This is a long-term solution. The 2019 solution is to get Jack back playing his best footy as quickly as possible because a hungry, ferocious, efficient, multi-pronged forward line is going to keep the ball away from D50 for long periods.
Prognosis: Not good for 2019 I'm afraid. If we can improve midfield size and pressure, that will help. But without Rance, the only positives from our courageous back six are Stack's development and games into the likes of Garthwaite.
OVERALL PROGNOSIS: We desperately need to lift our size and pressure rating in midfield, plus introduce more marking targets in attack. These are things we CAN do on the road to finals 2019. Barring further injuries, there's no reason why we can't scrape together 14+ wins and hunt the opposition in September. There's no reason our forward division can't rise to become the best in the comp. This is the area with the greatest ceiling.
ATTACK:
Plan A: plan A is to deliver it quickly into F50 where a key forward will bring it down to fast crumbers who will either generate a shot at goal or trap the ball in for further turnover opportunities. this requires at least one smart key forward who is good in the air and on ground (ie Jack Riewoldt), a second marking forward to take the heat off Jack, make space, etc. (ie Tom Lynch or Josh Caddy)
The Problem: our top key forward is out. Without Jack, we are left with one outnumbered key forward who is low on confidence and no experience in bringing the ball down to areas that are dangerous for small forwards. As a result, teams are sweating on the long ball to Tom and setting up behind and lateral to the air ball. Our small forwards are being sucked too high due to lack of midfield movement (see MIDFIELD) and aren't getting to Tom in time. To further compound matters, our best small forward is enduring a run of poor form. Lastly, Josh Caddy, nominally the second, space-making marking support, has been required in the midfield.
Solution: Bring in another tall. Easier said than done when Callum Moore is injured, Mabior Chol is iffy and Noah Balta is best suited roaming mid and ruck support and such a young, raw age. So we wait until Jack's back - then Tom can resume his critical role without three blokes sweating on him, Jack can be Jack, forward entries will again at least be halved, if not put in the path of a dangerous small forward. Critically, our smallish midfield and rance-less defence will have less oppo inside 50s to contend with.
Prognosis: when Jack is ready, things will improve markedly. A trickle-down effect that will help the crumbers regain form and influence and allow Tom to go about the business of simply kicking goals.
MIDFIELD:
Plan A: Plan A is to muck in hard at centre bounces and scramble the ball forward, but traditionally we don't lose sleep if we concede clearances because we set up to hunt the oppo ball carrier and have the best intercept backline in the league to mop up scrappy oppo entries. When we win the ball we like to run it through Martin or Lambert and, failing that, push it / flick it forward at every opportunity.
The Problem: It's fine to concede centre clearances, but there's a critical point where you're so small and inexperienced that you simply cannot put enough pressure on the ball to cause turnovers. Losing Ross, Graham's indifferent form, Cotchy's hamstrings, Titch being pulled, Nank (a ground pressure player) going down, Lambert out, all have conspired to cripple our very effectively workmanlike midfield (I mean that in the best possible way). Put simply, we're currently too small and slow to pile the kind of fierce, four-quarter pressure that wins us games. When confidence is down, you work back too much and don't run forward enough to take risks. As a result, our forward crumbers are getting sucked too high and cannot reach Lynch in time to assist with the air ball.
Solution: Fixable, but only to a point. I feel we need to alter things tactically with the advent of 6-6-6, which allows teams to capitalise on elite ruckman and dominant ball winners. Ross and Lambert are critical ins. Ross, surprisingly so. Lambert is just a consummate link man, so smart, so mighty over four quarters. Vlastuin needs to play back. Caddy needs to play forward. Balta must run through the midfield. With cotch also back after the break and hopefully Edwards back in the middle, I feel we can at least break even here on the run to the finals.
Prognosis: Bleak in the short term until we get Lambert, Ross and Cotchin back. Things will slowly get better as the season turns and the medical room empties out.
DEFENCE:
Plan A: Stay at home and spoil. Keep structures and trust that Alex Rance will make ground to support. Plan A is to absorb oppo entries, hopefully of the scrappy kind once run through the meat grinder of a pressure-cooker midfield, and repel to the wings / boundary as necessary to setup again. Once we win the ball outside D50 we run forward aggressively, but the experienced backline keeps structure and prevents fast movement the other way.
The Problem: There is simply no one as good as Rance at a) reading the play b) reaching the contest and c) impacting the contest so physically. Grimes and Vlastuin try but do not have the physical characteristics that Rance has. This is a massive shortfall. The result is a backline now under threat with each oppo entry. Injuries to Houli, Short and Astbury haven't helped. Yes, Stack has been a revelation, but I actually think he's still yet to fully learn how to be cohesive with the back six. Understandable for a first-year player thrown in. All up, the central plank of our defence has been removed and we are seriously struggling to plug the massive gap. The trickle-down effect is out of this world. Oppo teams are now learning that they can kick it long with impunity, whereas before they were trying to pinpoint leading targets in order to avoid Rance.
The Solution: Bolster the midfield with ball-winning talent. Not harrassing / pressuring talent, ball-winning talent so we don't have to put up with so many oppo entries. This is a long-term solution. The 2019 solution is to get Jack back playing his best footy as quickly as possible because a hungry, ferocious, efficient, multi-pronged forward line is going to keep the ball away from D50 for long periods.
Prognosis: Not good for 2019 I'm afraid. If we can improve midfield size and pressure, that will help. But without Rance, the only positives from our courageous back six are Stack's development and games into the likes of Garthwaite.
OVERALL PROGNOSIS: We desperately need to lift our size and pressure rating in midfield, plus introduce more marking targets in attack. These are things we CAN do on the road to finals 2019. Barring further injuries, there's no reason why we can't scrape together 14+ wins and hunt the opposition in September. There's no reason our forward division can't rise to become the best in the comp. This is the area with the greatest ceiling.
