A Preseason Preview - Part 14 of 16 - StKilda

[pahoffm]

Saints - Are they certainties?

The Saints had a magical year right up until their preliminary final loss. Can they repeat these performances this year and go one further. There is certainly alot of youth in the StKilda side, but there is also a fair bit of old wood as well, and there is a hole in an important area too. I reckon money's tight at StKilda. 40 on the list. Wouldn't pay Knobel extra, regardless of their need for him.

Many people criticize Thomas. I am a self-confessed Thomas fan from when he started as both a manager and a coach. He logically looked at the flaws in his list and coaching staff and has even been prepared to go outside the square to tackle these problems. His choice of assistant coaches reflects his clear intelligence. Nathan Burke to lead the onballers, courageous, effective and loyal. Terry Daniher, premiership captain, prior assistant coach to the best, knows how both a top defence and attack should work. Matt Rendell, now he's the one who has the enormous job this season with little to work with.

The StKilda side though successful are obviously still hamstring with finances. Their list is 40 players, 7 new, and 2 rookies. Not much different to us with 40, 10 and 2. Their list is:

Brooks 198 95 21
Koschitzke 197 96 22
Ackland 196 96 23 New
Stone 196 97 23 New
Pfitzner 196 82 20 New
Gehrig 195 104 29
Penny 193 94 24
Riewoldt 193 95 22
McDonnell 192 87 18 Rookie
Hudgton 191 92 28
FisherS 191 88 22
Schwarze 190 89 23
Maguire 190 96 21
Blake 189 87 24
Goddard 189 96 20
McGough 188 88 21 New
ClarkeR 188 82 19
Gwilt 188 88 18 New
Ferguson 187 87 20
Mullins 187 82 20 Rookie
Hayes 186 85 25
Fiora 186 80 24 New
Gram 186 84 21
DalSanto 185 83 21
Hamill 184 94 27
FisherL 184 90 21
Ball 183 84 21
Peckett 182 84 32
Harvey 181 84 33
Powell 181 84 28
Voss 181 84 27
Guerra 181 91 23
ClarkeX 181 80 21
Thompson 180 81 32
Murray 180 83 23
Baker 179 83 25
McQualter 179 79 19 New
Montagna 178 76 21
Jones 176 82 28
Milne 176 80 25

And there it immediately hits you with the first player. Their tallest player is a 21yo at 198cms, Brooks. Kotchitzke at 197 helps out around the ground, filling holes, but the others may be too small. May be that Thomas reckons that some of his finals opponents, Port, Brisbane, Melbourne don't have really tall ruckmen either.

The spread of the StKilda list is:

Twilight = 28+yo
Prime = 25-27yo
Development = 22-24yo
Junior = 18-21yo

<180 Small Runners
Twilight: Jones 28
Prime: Baker 25, Milne 25
Development: 0
Junior: Montagna 21, McQualter 19

180-184 Smaller Mediums
Twilight: Harvey 33, Peckett 32, Thompson 32, Powell 28
Prime: Hammill 27, Voss 27
Development: Guerra 23, Murray 23
Junior: L.Fisher 21, Ball 21, X.Clarke 21

185-189 Taller Mediums
Twilight: 0
Prime: Hayes 25
Development: Blake 24, Fiora 24
Junior: McGough 21, Gram 21, DalSanto 21, Mullins 20, Goddard 20, Ferguson 20, R.Clarke 19, Gwilt 18

190-194 Mobile Key Position
Twilight: Hudgton 28
Prime: 0
Development: Penny 24, Schwarze 23, Riewoldt 22, S.Fisher 22
Junior: Maguire 21, McDonnell 18

195-199 Key Position/ Ruck
Twilight: Gehrig 28
Prime: 0
Development: Stone 23, Ackland 23, Koschitzke 22
Junior: Brooks 21, Pfitzner 20

200+ Ruck
Twilight: 0
Prime: 0
Development: 0
Junior: 0

The spread shows that Thomas is very aware that he could lose over 5 of his key runners in the next couple of years. Harvey, Peckett and Thompson are in their 30s, Jones and Powell have just moved into the twilight zone. There's no doubting that the Sainters have more than enough kpps to get by but, with the new rules, enormous pressure builds on the shoulders of Brooks & Koschitzke.
On the positive side the midfield runners look very strong and they have plenty of kpps.

The positional depth of the side is as follows:

B: Peckett 32 Penny 24 Hudgton 28
Baker 25 Fisher S 22 Stone 23


HB: Schwarze 23 Maguire 21 Jones 28
Gram 21         McDonnell 18 Voss 27
Ferguson 20                    FisherL 21

C: Thompson 32 Hayes 25 Blake 24
Goddard 20 DalSanto 21 Fiora 24
Gwilt 18                            ClarkeX 21

HF: Hammill 27 Riewoldt 22 Guerra 23
ClarkeR 19                       Murray 23


F: Koschitzke 22 Gehrig 29 Milne 25
                    Pfitzner 20 Montagna 21

R: Ackland 23 Ball 21 Harvey 33
Brooks 21 McGough 21 Powell 28
                    Mullins 20 McQualter 19

Maguire did a great job for StKilda at CHB last year, he will be relied upon greatly again. Riewoldt too will need to play beyond his years. Fortunately they do have Hammill who can temp in either CHF or CHB.

Conclusion:
StKilda's major problem last season was their rucks. Last year the rules favoured young ruckmen jumping off a long run-up. This is the year StKilda needed a 200+cm ruckman and they traded Knobel to us. StKilda seems to be in the same boat as Melbourne, very good but inexperienced kpps, lots of runners, but may battle in the ruck. StKilda probably has a better engine by 1 or 2 cylinders but they'll need them if they are to secure that prize they so desperately desire.

 

[mb64]

For my thinking they should be flag favourites & at this point in time they are my tip to win the flag.Despite maybe problems in the ruck they have a strong midfield,forward line & a steady defence.A good blend of youth & experience StKilda supporters should have high expectations.They were only 1 kick away from beating Port away in the Prelim.Prediction1st-3rd.

 

[TOT70]

Phantom, do you think they are tight w finances or is it simply that the salary cap is starting to kick in? They have to hang on to Reivoldt, Ball, Koschitzke, HAyes, DalSanto, Goddard and several other young ones. Each contract ofr these guys is more ucrative that the previous one. They also have HAmill, Gehrig and HArvey who would not be cheap.

More likely that they are doing a Richmond circa 2002 and deliberately going one or two players short to fit everyone under, leading to Knobel's exit. They obviously decided that the smaller ruckmen that they had could do the job. Wrong year for this.

Their lack of a quality ruckman will hurt them and may lead to them missing the ultimate prize but they will still be up in the top two or three. Personally, I think they will be in the big one.

On another note, Sam Fisher looks good from what I haev seen. Hopefully he could be a victim of their cap problems next year. We could use him.

 

[Richmond United]

I think a strong midfield masks an otherwise suspect defence. Top 4 but will not win the flag!

 

[Panthera tigris FC]

Not directly on topic, however, does anyone know how much weight Goddard has put on during the break?

I saw him playing in the Wizz cup and I did not recognise him.....he has bulked WAY up.

Thanks.

 

[pahoffm]

Not directly on topic, however, does anyone know how much weight Goddard has put on during the break?

I saw him playing in the Wizz cup and I did not recognise him.....he has bulked WAY up.

Thanks.

Excellent question.
My record from 2003, has him at 189, 82.
Now he is 189, 96.
And that's in 2 years.

He certainly has been eating alot of steak & eggs.
(Again it questions the dietary regime of muppet arms in his time with us.)

Hope our current youngens are on the Goddard diet.

Phantom, do you think they are tight w finances or is it simply that the salary cap is starting to kick in?

Interesting one.
Don't really know, I hope it's both.

 

[Hungry]

Phantom, do you subscribe to Thomas's theory that ruckmen are over-rated anyway? He thinks the rovers are more important nowadays and he sure has a plethora of good ones.

 

[pahoffm]

Phantom, do you subscribe to Thomas's theory that ruckmen are over-rated anyway? He thinks the rovers are more important nowadays and he sure has a plethora of good ones.

Yes, a question we've spoken about before.

My view is that you cannot afford to lose in the ruck. You dont have to win, but you cant afford to lose. Therefore you need someone who can at least break even in the ruck.

A great example was the '72 GF. I heard that McKellar came up to Hafey during the week of the game and was complaining of a bad back. Hafey told him that it was only nerves and played him anyway. Well that gave Percy Jones a free rein in the first half of the game. Hafey did replace McKellar with Roberts in the 2nd half and the lead was drawn back but it was too late. (Well that's the story I heard.)

So that's my view of ruck tactics.

PS: Also, you should have a 2nd ruckman, so that your 1st ruckman doesn't tire in a big game when it counts. (Very important.)

 

[Hungry]

Interesting you say that because most ruck contests seem to be a "break even" situation, where the ball falls into a fairly neutral spot and the rovers fight it out - which is I suppose better than the rovers getting a free run, as they have during Brisbane's great recent era. So I see where you're coming from, and I'm sure deep down Thomas doesn't want to get spanked in the ruck - too dangerous.

Of course, a lot seems to depend on the umpires too, there's been a lot of dodgy bounces lately, maybe they should do away with it after all.

 

[TrewTIGER]

A great example was the '72 GF. I heard that McKellar came up to Hafey during the week of the game and was complaining of a bad back. Hafey told him that it was only nerves and played him anyway. Well that gave Percy Jones a free rein in the first half of the game. Hafey did replace McKellar with Roberts in the 2nd half and the lead was drawn back but it was too late. (Well that's the story I heard.)

So that's my view of ruck tactics.

PS: Also, you should have a 2nd ruckman, so that your 1st ruckman doesn't tire in a big game when it counts. (Very important.)

Interesting Phantom. Back in the late 70's I asked Mckellar a similar question regarding Percy jumping into him and injuring him at the opening bounce. Craig just about jumped down my throat denying it. Perhaps theres more to the story as your post may suggest? I always thought he looked like he was playing injured.

 

[johnson2richo2003]

For my thinking they should be flag favourites & at this point in time they are my tip to win the flag.Despite maybe problems in the ruck they have a strong midfield,forward line & a steady defence.A good blend of youth & experience StKilda supporters should have high expectations.They were only 1 kick away from beating Port away in the Prelim.Prediction1st-3rd.

Here here MB.My thoughts exactly.
PS.I,ve noticed your karma has skyrocketed over the past week.JB must do it by nature ;D
oh and good preview once again phanto

 

[mb64]

For my thinking they should be flag favourites & at this point in time they are my tip to win the flag.Despite maybe problems in the ruck they have a strong midfield,forward line & a steady defence.A good blend of youth & experience StKilda supporters should have high expectations.They were only 1 kick away from beating Port away in the Prelim.Prediction1st-3rd.

Here here MB.My thoughts exactly.
PS.I,ve noticed your karma has skyrocketed over the past week.JB must do it by nature ;D

JB wouldn't be much help.Finally my posts are receiving the praise they deserve. ;D

 

[the claw]

if 1st rnd picks mean anything with 15 and numerous 2nd rnd and 3rd rnd picks on their list they are the team. time will tell weather their recruiting staff are greg becks or as most tiger ferals like to believe greg millers.
i tend to think the latter when it comes to this team this yrs gf will be saints and wce.

 

[jb03]

Long way to go after tonight. They didn't seem to have many out.

For my thinking they should be flag favourites & at this point in time they are my tip to win the flag.Despite maybe problems in the ruck they have a strong midfield,forward line & a steady defence.A good blend of youth & experience StKilda supporters should have high expectations.They were only 1 kick away from beating Port away in the Prelim.Prediction1st-3rd.

Here here MB.My thoughts exactly.
PS.I,ve noticed your karma has skyrocketed over the past week.JB must do it by nature ;D

I find mb's posts too long and tedious and usually cannot be bothered reading them

 

[an_oxford_man]

reflects his clear intelligence.

Grant Thomas? Intelligence? Hahahahahahahahaha... :rofl

 

[newyorktiger]

I have a lot of respect for Thomas as well - I think his different approach to the game has produced (so far) some pretty good results.. Don't forget that the 'Aints were considered idiotic and a rabble for sacking Blight.

Sometimes a different approach works - and it is often helpful to look at other sports. Arsene Wenger of Arsenal was considered strange for adopting a strict dietary regimen, and other techniques to get the best from his squad... Look at the results, especially when you consider how much he has spent on players compared to others (Man U, Chelsea etc).

 

[Dyer'ere]

StKilda is a very interesting side. Maybe the most interesting for 2005. We know they're not far off.

I agree with the idea that they are currently a little suspect down back.  It's not so much that it has a lot of weaknesses as that it doesn't have many strengths. One thing to remember, you can't assess the form of the backs against most of their competition. The ball's usually up the other end. You have to examine their performances against the top sides. Another thing. Regardless of the inside 50s, StKilda's midfielders Hayes, Ball alSanto (a bit less so) and Baker apply a lot of pressure to their opponents so the ball often enters StKildas defensive 50 to a under pressure or to a contest. Something Tiger fans watch with envy.

A.Jones is their only AA class defender and I have question marks against all their other defenders except Hudghton who has proven form against larger opponents.
Over the past couple of years I've been impressed by McGuire. I'm a bit worried about him ATM. Probably plateaued a bit in 04. Bit short, not a big leap. If he starts to get exposed to better opponents, I won't be surprised if he falls over. OTOH if he improves big time in 05 that will be consistent with his age. Could go either way. We'll find out this year.
Penny is a determined type. A critical quality for a guy in his role. Not overly tall or strong but uses what he has well. IMO he lacks quality as a player and could struggle against the better forwards IF they can get supply.
Voss works hard, plays tight but is far too reliant on his aerial game when in defence. Big ticker and nuts, below average ground level player. Gets in the path of the leading forwards well. He's an undersized, longer kicking Andy Kellaway playing on a flank and helping to conceal the weaknesses of the key backs.
On the up side, Leigh Fisher (he's the smaller Fisher, I haven't been impressed by the larger one, Sam, to date) might be fit for a senior berth this year. He's a hard type with a superb marking technique, a good brain and is capable of winning leather at ground level. Lots of surgery (shoulder, hammy) in the off-season is a worry for this young fellow. I hope he comes up. Logical replacement for Voss.
Goddard spent chunks of 04 on a HBF learning the caper. Likely on-ball and, I would hope forward change this year.
Baker keeps learning and is now good enough to play the small tagger role. To play on such types as Akermanis or L.Power, Didak, N.Stevens, C.Fletcher, et al. He's no Chris Bond but he'll do. He's effectively a midfielder probably usually used in lieu of a HFF but sometimes a HBF.

We're missing at least one small. That's why Phanto's named Frankie Peckett in his A side. A big worry for a premiership threat.

Some options-
I've seen Blake play his best footy as a pack splitting, hard running HBF. Maybe.
Guerra, like all small forwards at times, struggled for consistency in 2004. Orthodox footy to move him back to learn consistency and discipline. He can go forward later or maybe carve out a midfield role but should have been tried back this preseason IMO.
Maybe X.Clarke can have another go as a backman. Rising 22. Very loose but maturing. Not out of the question.
Okay maybe Goddard.
Nick DalSanto would be ideal if they could afford to lose him from the midfield.
It would be nice to give Luke Ball some time back to ease the pressure on his young, light body and to give him some opportunity to learn to use the ball better by foot.
Any hope Gram or Murray? Any news on their preseasons?
Here's Gram from this week- "He's had a bit of a stiff run, Grammy. His body hasn't been 100 per cent right through the pre-season, so maybe this will give him his chance to get his legs right as well. And if he's out for three or four weeks, well hopefully we can get him in tip-top shape." Grant Thomas.

Other players worth considering for roles in defence for the Saints-
J.Koschitzke, logical move. Runs hard, can struggle for consistency. Brings height, athleticism and dash to the defence as well as ground-ball winning ability. Penny dropped, Hudghton to play #2. Probably not going to happen.

This move would be my choice.
Aaron Hammill to play centre half back for 2005 and beyond. Hamill's body wil not stand up to forward or change midfield roles for much longer. He can ease the pressure on his troublesome hip in the relatively straight line position at CHB. He is a bit short for key forward role but has always played above his height. This is easier to do as a defender. The only two players at CHF capable of exposing him in the air are N.Riewoldt (not a problem) and M.Richardson (not a problem as the ball will be up the other end). He is a perfect matchup for Brown or Tredrea as they relly heavily on their ground game and chest marking respectively.
Irrespective of whether he is any more than a rover slapper, there is a perception that he is hard. Let's match him up some blokes to find out. Agression is lacking in the current backline. Most compelling reason to move him back is this- he is a class player. No other KPP at StK has this quality.