A Preseason Preview - Part 12 of 16 - Melbourne

[pahoffm]

Melbourne, don't quite know what to make of it.

Melbourne did well last year. If the trend of the last few years continues, then they shouldn't make the finals this year.
Neale Daniher leads them again as he has since 1998. But last year was a different Neale Daniher, one who for the first time seemed to embrace media & membership as well as straight coaching. He is assisted by Anthony Rock. Also Peter Curran who has just returned from doing some unremarkable things as assistant to Ayres in Adelaide. Also Mark Riley, from WA, who has done some admirable things rebuilding the Demon defence in both 2003 and 2004.

Melbourne have the same financial troubles as we do. They also have the same number, 40, on their list. 5 new players against our 10. And 2 rookies, the same as us.

Their list is:

VanSchaik 203 98 19 Rookie
JohnsonP 199 100 21 New
Holland 197 100 28
Nicholson 197 102 27
Jamar 197 95 21
Smith 196 97 20
White 195 95 28
Ferguson 195 85 23
Neitz 193 100 30
Miller 193 96 21
Warnock 193 84 20 Rookie
Newton 193 88 18 New
Dunn 192 90 18 New
Carroll 191 90 24
Rivers 191 85 20
Bate 191 90 18 New
Bruce 190 85 25
Wheatley 189 89 24
JohnsonC 189 81 19
Bizzell 188 88 29
Yze 187 87 27
Heffernan 186 85 26
Johnstone 186 83 24
Bell 186 88 20
Ward 185 85 27
Williams 185 83 25
Hunter 185 70 21
McLean 185 84 19
Robertson 184 93 26
Godfrey 184 83 24
Green 184 85 24
Sylvia 184 86 19
Rigoni 181 86 30
Moloney 181 86 21 New
Brown 180 81 28
McDonald 180 78 28
Read 180 80 25
Whelan 180 80 25
Armstrong 180 81 21
Davey 177 67 22

Their new players have some height, but then again, they've lost Jolly to Sydney, Lamb to the world, and unfortunately Troy Broadbridge.

The spread of their list is as follows:

Twilight = 28+yo
Prime = 25-27yo
Development = 22-24yo
Junior = 18-21yo

<180 Small Runners
Twilight: 0
Prime: 0
Development: Davey 22
Junior: 0

180-184 Smaller Mediums
Twilight: Rigoni 30, Brown 28, McDonald 28
Prime: Robertson 26, Read 25, Whelan 25
Development: Godfrey 24, Green 24
Junior: Moloney 21, Armstrong 21, Sylvia 19

185-189 Taller Mediums
Twilight: Bizzell 29
Prime: Yze 27, Ward 27, Heffernan 26, Williams 25
Development: Wheatley, Johnstone 24
Junior: Hunter 21, Bell 20, JohnsonC 19, McLean 19

190-194 Mobile Key Position
Twilight: Neitz 30
Prime: Bruce 25
Development: Carroll 24
Junior: Miller 21, Warnock 20, Rivers 20, Dunn 18, Newton 18, Bate 18

195-199 Key Position/ Ruck
Twilight: Holland 28, White 28
Prime: Nicholson 27
Development: Ferguson 23
Junior: JohnsonP 21, Jamar 21, Smith 20

200+ Ruck
Twilight: 0
Prime: 0
Development: 0
Junior: VanSchaik 19

From this we can see that Davey is their only speedy small. They are well stocked in smaller and tall mediums. They just get by with kpps, the bulk being junior. They do look thin in experienced kpps. And they look as if they will be relying heavily on players in or near the twilight zone.

Their positional depth is as follows:

B: Ward 27 Nicholson 27 Carroll 24
Whelan 25 Ferguson 23

HB: Bizzell 29 Rivers 20 McDonald 28
 Wheatley 24    Warnock 20 Williams 25


C: Heffernan 26 Yze 27 Johnstone 24
Hunter 21 Moloney 21 JohnsonC 19
                     McLean 19

HF: Robertson 26 Miller 21 Green 24
         Bate 18 Smith 20 Bruce 25
                        Dunn 18

F: Holland 28 Neitz 30 Davey 22
Johnson P 21 Newton 18

R: White 28 Brown 28 Rigoni 30
Jamar 21 Godfrey 24 Read 25
Van Schaik 19 Bell 20

It appears that the Dees seem to cover every position, but they are relying very heavily on inexperienced players to do this job. CHB is still a worry. Maybe Holland is now fully recovered and can return to CHB. If White has a poor season, well the whole thing comes crashing down. Fortunately for him I believe the new ruck rules will suit his lack of inches, and aging legs.

Conclusion:
Melbourne did really well last draft picking up Bate, Dunn & Newton. Moloney too will be very good for them. But the draftees still need time. Melbourne's success will be based on the same players as last year reperforming, or the "newies" performing immediately. And they seem to really be relying on big performances from players in or near the twilight zone. After their trials and tribulations of last year, and their fairytale finals appearance, and of course the tragedy of Troy Broadbridge I do wish Melbourne all the best for 2005. But their list looks very fragile. If EVERYTHING goes right for them in 2005 they'll reappear in the finals. If it doesn't they look like one team that could really fall into a heap.

 

[mb64]

This is the year I believe Melbourne will buck the trend of 1 good then bad year.I like their midfield which has been bolstered by Maloney.Good goalkicking options with Neitz the main focal point.Holland is likely to turn out as a disaster for them.Not convinced about their backline but have a good ruckman in White.Can't see them threatening for the flag but should make the 8.Prediction 6th-8th

 

[evo]

Melbourne relies heavily on their running half backs Yze and Nathan Brown.It's a style of play i'm hoping Richmond develop.These blokes probly have another 2 years at top level output.

Question marks over their more key backs in Nicholson and Bizzel but Rivers looks quite promising.They lost Thompson but gained Moloney a break even.
Agree with Phantom that they look fragile.Particularly in the midfield and half forward.Miller is over rated imo and Robertson is inconsitent.

Nietz is now the wrong side of 30.

And any team that Stegasaurus gets a game in has to be a little suss. :hihi

I could seem them finishing anywhere from 6th to 12th.

 

[CHF]

Hello Phantom,

At last there is a list that I know in detail and hopefully I can clarify/add to you preview.

Firstly your positional depth needs a little massaging. I would classify the list this way.

B:   Ward   27   Nicholson   27   Carroll   24
  Whelan   25   Ferguson   23   Brown 28  
                 
HB:   Bizzell   29   Rivers   20   Bell 20
     Warnock   20     Bate 18      Wheatley   24
      Dunn 18        
                 
C:   Heffernan   26   Yze   27   Johnstone   24
  Hunter   21   Moloney   21    Green 24    
  McLean   19     Bruce   25   Sylvia 19
                 
HF:   Robertson   26   Miller   21      Bate   18  
             Smith   20     Williams   25  JohnsonC   19

F:   Holland   28   Neitz   30   Davey   22
  Johnson P   21   Newton   18      

R:   White   28   McDonald  28   Rigoni   30
  Jamar   21   Godfrey   24   Read   25
  Van Schaik   19  

I think we do cover the positions pretty well with the showing of Rivers at CHB and Miller at CHf being big bonuses for us last season. As they are only so young I would expect them to improve a bit with maturity and experience. Both seem to read the play well. Rivers as winner of the Rising  Star has his name up there with some pretty good company so it will be interesting to see how he develops.

Our defence last season stood up pretty well with the players meshing well with the mid-field to hold some very good teams. Nicholson at fullback wears a lot of abuse from demon's supporters as not being up to it, but he can do a good job on a lot of players. Held Richo goaless last year and also held Treadrae to 2 goals. I think the defence will hold up again this year. Brown and Whelan are tough nuts back there and Bizzell is the experience. Bell is coming through and looks good in the three games he has had and Wheatley had a good season last year as well.

Ferguson is developing and Ward and Carroll provide cover. Yze and Bruce can play back there if required and Holland might get a run back there at some stage.

The centre is one of our developing strengths. Heffernan, Yze and Bruce are the experience here, although I expect Yze to play forward a lot this year. Johnstone and Green next in experience and both had solid years last year. Green's first year in the mid-field and he did everything well. Iexpect some development from him this year. Johnstone is still the most frustrating player on the list. So good when he decides to play. Developing players in this area are McLean, Sylvia and Moloney. All have shown talent and would expect them all to be regulars in the 22.

Half forward has Robertson trying to fit in to a new role because Miller is playing CHF for us. he was a little lost last season playing on a flank and had his most effective game against WC when he moved to FF and kicked 5. he played a bit like a classic small forward and I would not be surprised to see that happen a bit more. Miller has the potential to make CHF his own this season for a long time. Think we will see Yze, Green and Bruce rotating through the HFF as well. Keep your eye on Chris Johnson in a couple of years time. Given a good run with injury he will show a lot. Smith has the talent but has lacked the luck with a string of injuries.

Neitz and Davey will be up here week in week out. Davey will move up on to the flank and maybe some time on the wing but it is around goal that he will shine. Holland has to stand and deliver this season. I gave him the benifit of a season to settle in last season but this year he has to perform. He has Paul Johnson wanting to get a run and he will need to be good.


White in ruck had a good one last season. Rucked in the midle and defence with Holland taking the ruck work up forward. That allowed him to play a kick behind play in the middle and he was like an extra mid-fielder. Jamar as backup along with Paul Johnson gives us reasonable stocks. McDonald is an essential part of the ruck roving division and he does a lot of the un-noticed work. Read, godfrey and Rigoni all provide depth and fill roles.

Hunter and Williams on the list will need to force themselves into the team and show something. Bate, Dunn and Newton seem to be good pickups with Dunn the most advanced and likely to get a run pre-season sometime. All three could play either end of the ground at this stage.

I think the list will prove to be more resilient than you think Phantom.

I am confident that if we get a good run with injuries and suspension we will be very solidly in the 8 with a top 4 finish not an unlikely possibility.

Last season I predicted a finsih 6-10, this year I will say 3-8.

 

[FightingFury]

I think they've recruited very well,and have traded even better.
They essentially got Moloney for Jolly which seems good business to me,as they have another lumberer in Jamar to assist White in the ruck,and Paul Johnson as back up.
They also seem to have covered their weak areas of the past,and have found some suprisingly good picks in Miller and Rivers develop sooner than expected.

They played some good attacking footy through the likes of Yze(underrated) and Robertson last season,and I reckon they can be top 5,but not quite a serious threat to take the title.

 

[paper tiger]

Their mediums look like a solid force but key positions to taller players are a big worry. Injuries to Bruce or Nicholson could see the workload fall on unexperienced shoulders that would weaken as the season got longer. Holland should have been delisted as he just takes up space on their list. White is a good player if his body holds up - if it doesn't Melbourne's talent in the midfield could have their output slowed substantialy. It's hard not to rely on White when he sets the play up so well.
Didn't like Daniher's coming of age last year - he was like a person at a party that has said nothing all night, had 2 shots of Schnapps and then done a nudy dash in front of everyone. The contrast in personas was a bit too stark - back in your box Neale.  Prediction: 7 - 12.

Phantom can you highlight the 'best 22' with yellow text in the positional depth part?
Thanks and keep up the great work.

 

[jb03]

I could seem them finishing anywhere from 6th to 12th.

LOL evo. Looking forward to your prediction for a team to finish anywhere between 1st and 16th. ;D ;D :hihi :rofl :rofl ;D

 

[evo]

lol Jb.Well why don't you regale us with your assessment.Do i have to hold your hand on every sport bet. :spin

i'm still waiting for your ladder.

 

[dmx]

I think they've recruited very well,and have traded even better.
They essentially got Moloney for Jolly which seems good business to me,as they have another lumberer in Jamar to assist White in the ruck,and Paul Johnson as back up.

IMO Moloney would have to be the best player traded during trade week. I know everyone here will say, hold on what about Simmonds, but if we didnt depserately need a ruckman, then I would think we would have moved heaven and earth for this kid too.

 

[FightingFury]

I think they've recruited very well,and have traded even better.
They essentially got Moloney for Jolly which seems good business to me,as they have another lumberer in Jamar to assist White in the ruck,and Paul Johnson as back up.

IMO Moloney would have to be the best player traded during trade week.  I know everyone here will say, hold on what about Simmonds, but if we didnt depserately need a ruckman, then I would think we would  have moved heaven and earth for this kid too.

Absolutely
I would have taken Moloney off the handbags along with their first pick pick for :donut in a heartbeat.
That kid is exactly what we need so desperately....a tough nut midfielder with skills to match :-\

 

[jb03]

.Do i have to hold your hand on every sport bet. :spin

Of course.

i'm still waiting for your ladder.

I put it up under another thread but can't find it. I know I put Adelaide in the 8 as the surprise packet and Kangas on the bottom. I'll keep lookinig for it. I remember you bagging me then.

 

[the claw]

i like the dees and all things being equal injuries etc i think top 4 is not out of the question. i would go so far to say they are my smokie to make the gf.
the bloke in charge of their recruiting should be targeted by us and heaven and hell should be moved to get him.

 

[pahoffm]

Hi chf,

Reviewed your side. Made an adjustment to my side by moving Bruce from HBF to HFF on the weight of his 34 goals last year, and his career average of just over a goal per game. I see you had Bate, 190cm, at both CHB & HFF. I agree in a way. As I said last year, I believe that Bate in 3 years time will be a Justin Leppitsch-like CHB, but he's not ready for that yet. He has a good goalkicking capacity, and I believe early in his career he is best suited to a HFF, as was Leppitsch early in his career. Also, Warnock, the older brother of the boy I saw playing for Sandy in the TAC last year, is 193cm so may be a bit tall for a HBF.

Please refer to my original post, paper tiger, where I have highlighted my best 22, and of course moved Bruce to a HFF.

 

[johnson2richo2003]

The broadbridge tragedy will get them into the 8 just.

 

[johnson2richo2003]

I know I put Adelaide in the 8 as the surprise packet

JB young man what are you on? ;D

 

[jb03]

I know I put Adelaide in the 8 as the surprise packet

JB young man what are you on? ;D

I just remember that thread j2r everyone was basically picking the same ladder. I just tried to predict something a little different. There is always a surprise slider and surprise mover. Adelaide are my tip to be the surprise riser as I reckon they have some good younng kpp forwards who will be good players plus Reilly off half back and a great on ball division when firing. PLus, the anchor Ayres has gone.

 

[Skills]

Expect to see big things from Brock McClean & Colin Silvia in 2005.
Colin Silvia could easily win the AFL Rising Star competition.

 

[Dyer'ere]

There are many of reasons that the Dees' performance is greater than the sum of the parts and they are all tactics. At his best, Daniher is a fine innovator, philosophically committed to opening up the game for fast, direct use and quick scoring. His ability to get his players to play his brand is outstanding.

Jeff White is pivotal, maybe the key player in the side. When he palms the ball effectively, IMO there is no better tap ruckman in memory. He finds team-mates in space or sets them to it. It's no accident that Melbourne's improved form has coincided with JW's recovery from that debilitating shin injury. His ability to link up around the ground according to the ND plan is supplementary. To what extent will the change in ruck rules affect White's leap and aerial dominance?

One of the things I noticed about Melbourne in 2004 was their use of the through-ball. A target, who can be a forward or midfielder sags for rear position, that is he allows his opponent to take front position late in the lead, he then uses a hip-check or gentle nudge in the back to gain space as the kick (or sometimes handball) is fired just over their heads to space. This way the Dee player gets a break on his opponent and a run onto the ball TOWARDS goal. I couldn't believe how long they were getting away with this. It was a very effective tactic. Not the sort of tactic which works well against all teams though, eg Sydney. Which brings me to my concern.

I'm quite a fan of Moloney but he doesn't play the game like Thompson. Moloney plays a little off the contest and barges through after the ball has beeen cleared. A bit like Ricciutto used to. This ensures he can get a kick off, a bloody good thing as he can really unload (again like Ricciutto). Thompson hits the contests and wins the ball in traffic. He often comes straight through the packs with the ball. Bloody invaluable. While waiting for a youngster to develop in this role, my question is who's gonna get the ball out to all the runners? Maybe Moloney but it's not the job he's currently trained in. If Moloney does succeed in this role in 2005 it will be a credit to both coach and player. That said it's not out of the question. A logical extension of Green's game would see him work harder inside. Bruce is a fine player, who can play tight or run hard to kick a goal. Perhaps he can share the burden of running through some packs. I've seen Ward play some good footy as a human battering ram. Brown? Hmmm. Maybe not.

You've gotta love the way the Dees played most of their games in 2004. Exciting, attractive stuff. My reservation about the Dees is that they may not cope with teams which are good enough and well drilled enough to deny them space. eg Geelong, Sydney. And that they may not be good enough against StKilda, Port, or a fit Brisbane.

 

[CHF]

I did not mean to post Bate twice but I made the comment that he, Dunn and Newton are all of an age and size that they could be developed into key players at either end of the ground and, I belive that the three of them have, to date been used at bothe ends.

My best 22 for the team at the moment would be as follows:

B: Whelan, Nicholson, Brown.
HB: Bizzell, Rivers, Wheatley.
C: Green, Moloney, Johnstone.
HF Robertson, Miller, Davey.
F: Holland, Neitz, Yze.
R: White, Bruce, McDonald
I: Jamar, Heffernan, McLean, Sylvia

A few unlucky to miss are Bell, Ward, Read and Paul Johnson will press for selection as well. Will be interesting to see how Fergus goes at fullback in Nicholson's absence during the Wiz Cup.

One thing I like about the Melbourne list at the moment is the flexibility of a number of the players to cover a number of positions and roles.

While I acknowledge the role that Thompson played for us in the middle, I think that we have a very undervalued player in McDonald that does a lot of the hard work in this area that goes unrecognised. He needs a partner in crime and Moloney might just be the one.

White is important to the side but I have to say that we would have to be in the bottom four last season for winning the ball from a ball up. we need to tighten this are and improve.

 

[Dyer'ere]

I was wrong to overlook McDonald, CHF. Fine player. I'm worried about the wear and tear on his sinewy but light frame and I don't think he's nearly enough. Good luck to Moloney.