A Preseason Preview - Part 11 of 16 - Sydney

[pahoffm]

It's late on a Friday night. I'm more asleep than awake. I've probably made a number of errors. And we'll look at the morning's paper and see that Sydney has been thrashed by Essendon by 10 goals, and I don't know what I'm talking about. But heregoes.

Sydney - Look the goods on paper.

I'll start off by saying that on paper Sydney look the best list so far, therefore I shouldn't be expecting to see them any lower than their position at the end of last season. They could very well do better.

Paul Roos has his 2nd year as coach. His seemingly laid back approach takes pressure off the Sydney boys during the week, keeps them optimistic, therefore more responsive on match day. He is assisted by Ross Lyon, whose stints with the Tiges & the Blues were ordinary; maybe he's found something extra in Sydney. Longmire continues as forward coach. Jonas is the reserves coach, assisted by Brett Allison.

The sydney list is as follows:

Ericksen 205 89 19
Doyle 204 103 23
Ball 201 104 32
Jolly 200 100 23 New
Shaw 200 97 18 Rookie
Campbell 196 95 23 Rookie
Roberts-Thomson 195 89 21
Hall 194 99 27
Goodes 194 96 25
Vogels 194 88 22 Rookie
Schauble 193 94 28
Saddington 193 90 25
Powell 193 83 21
Dempster 192 87 21
Grundy 192 92 19 Rookie
O'Loughlin 190 89 28
Bolton C 190 85 24
O'Keefe 190 88 24
Kennelly 190 86 23
Hayes 190 87 20 Rookie
Davis M 190 78 18
James 189 89 25
Sundqvist 189 81 22
Malceski 189 78 20
Nicks 187 87 29
Barry 185 88 27
Kirk 184 81 28
Davis N 184 81 25
Ablett 184 89 22
McVeigh 184 75 19
Bevan 183 80 20 New
Mathews 182 83 26
Bolton J 182 81 25
Potter 181 80 19 Rookie
Fixter 180 79 23
Buchanan 180 84 22
Garrubba 180 75 18 Rookie
Schmidt 179 84 19
Clarke 179 92 19 Rookie
Maxfield 178 82 32
Fosdike 178 79 25
Schneider 178 78 20
Moore 178 84 19 New
Williams 176 82 31
Willoughby 176 70 19
Crouch 175 81 27
Spriggs 175 76 24 New

It contains 47 players, including 4 new players and 8 rookies. How do they get 8 rookies? Compare that to our 40 players, 10 new & 2 rookies. So much for the even playing field.

The spread of the Sydney list is as follows:

Twilight = 28+yo
Prime = 25-27yo
Development = 22-24yo
Junior = 18-21yo

<180 Small Runners
Twilight: Maxfield 32, Williams 31
Prime: Crouch 27, Fosdike 25
Development: Spriggs 24
Junior: Schneider 20, Schmidt 19, Clarke 19, Moore 19, Willoughby 19

180-184 Smaller Mediums
Twilight: Kirk 28
Prime: Mathews 26, N Davis 25, J Bolton 25
Development: Fixter 23, Ablett 22, Buchanan 22
Junior: Bevan 20, McVeigh 19, Potter 19, Garrubba 18

185-189 Taller Mediums
Twilight: Nicks 29
Prime: Barry 27, James 25
Development: Sundqvist 22
Junior: Malceski 20

190-194 Mobile Key Position
Twilight: Schauble 28, O'Loughlin 28
Prime: Hall 27, Goodes 25, Saddington 25
Development: C Bolton 24, O'Keefe 24, Kennelly 23
Junior: Powell 21, Dempster 21, Hayes 20, Grundy 19, M Davis 18

195-199 Key Position/ Ruck
Twilight: 0
Prime: 0
Development: Campbell 23, Vogels 22
Junior: Roberts-Thomson 21

Roos
200+ Ruck
Twilight: Ball 32
Prime: 0
Development: Doyle 23, Jolly 23
Junior: Ericksen 19, Shaw 18

This is the most evenly spread out list of all the club's I've seen so far. If I have to fault it, there is no prime Key Position/Ruck, and the 2 taller development KPs (Campbell & Vogels) are both on the rookie list.

The positional depth is as follows:

B: Crouch 27 Bolton C 24 Schauble 28
Fixter 23 James 25 Saddington 25
McVeigh 19 Rob-Thomson 21 Powell 21

HB: Nicks 29 Goodes 25 Mathews 26
Barry 27 Campbell 23 Bevan 20
                Dempster 21

C: Maxfield 32 Bolton J 25 Kennelly 23
Malceski 20 Moore 19 Sundqvist 22
Scmidt 19 Garrubba 18 Hayes 20

HF: Ablett 22 Hall 27 Davis N 25
Clarke 19 Vogels 22 Buchanan 22
                   Davis M 18

F: Doyle 23 O'Loughlin 28 Schneider 20
O'Keefe 24 Grundy 19

R: Ball 32 Kirk 28 Williams 31
Jolley 23 Fosdike 25 Spriggs 24
Ericksen 19 Potter 19 Willoughby 19
Shaw 18
The Swans look like they can fill every position with depth. But in the ability stakes CHB is a worry. They have enough forwards and ruckmen, so I have chosen to play Goodes at CHB to give the defence real strength. Paul Roos will probably disagree.

Conclusion:
It looks like the AFL are serious about getting the Swans a flag up in Sydney. The list of 47 players offers depth that few sides can match. And the good spread of players indicate that the list has been chosen wisely. For me, the Swans no lower than last year and probably chasing a top 4 spot come finals.

I look forward to your comments.

 

[an_oxford_man]

A very good analysis, Phantom. :clap

They have so much depth and quality. The only query are the key position backs. I believe they are a top four side (behind Brisbane, Port & St. Kilda) and if they can rustle up a top key position backman they will have a great shot at a flag.

 

[Ready]

They do have a very decent list, and with 12 games at home they should easily get themselves a home elimination final at worst.

Queries arise when it comes to the finals, and whether or not they are ready to take the next step.

 

[johnson2richo2003]

Sydney is one club im not sure about.There list is good enough to make the 8 but not good enough to go all the way.
A catch 22 for Roos.
do they continue to tread water or take the plunge?

 

[Dyer'ere]

Thanks Phanto for another detailed analysis. I give Sydney a realistic premiership chance. 2004 finals campaign was derailed by mounting and hidden injury toll. Agree it's a very complete list.

 

[The Mighty Wozman]

Phantom, once again I commend you. Love the format, structure, detail, and depth. well done. :clap

 

[QueenC]

Sydney is one club im not sure about.There list is good enough to make the 8 but not good enough to go all the way.
A catch 22 for Roos.
do they continue to tread water or take the plunge?

Interesting comment given Roos' own admission that the Sydney Swans cannot afford to fail as a team because the AFL, for better or worse, depend on them to succeed so that they can make their push into New South Wales. If the local team falls the the interest from people here would go elsewhere (league or union) and the AFL simply can't afford to have that happen.

So Roos really is caught between a rock and a hard place, because he is, in reality never going to be able to capatilise on the draft the way we have this year (& hopefully not again for a long while) and his list must always remain successful in a very competitive market.

 

[Tigers of Old]

Sydney is one club im not sure about.There list is good enough to make the 8 but not good enough to go all the way.
A catch 22 for Roos.
do they continue to tread water or take the plunge?

So Roos really is caught between a rock and a hard place, because he is, in reality never going to be able to capatilise on the draft the way we have this year (& hopefully not again for a long while) and his list must always remain successful in a very competitive market.

Good point Quincy.

 

[Rosy]

It looks like the AFL are serious about getting the Swans a flag up in Sydney. The list of 47 players offers depth that few sides can match. And the good spread of players indicate that the list has been chosen wisely. For me, the Swans no lower than last year and probably chasing a top 4 spot come finals.

I look forward to your comments.

Hi Phantom. Do you mean the AFL are serious about a Sydney flag because they gave them financial concessions to build that depth?

I'm not so sure credit goes to the AFL, who I agree desperately want a Sydney flag, but to Sydney for building their list wisely.

If Sydney capitalise on their considerable home ground advantage throughout the year I think they could feature late into September.

 

[GR]

The Swans look like they can fill every position with depth. But in the ability stakes CHB is a worry. They have enough forwards and ruckmen, so I have chosen to play Goodes at CHB to give the defence real strength. Paul Roos will probably disagree.

The weakness at CHB was the reason they went all out to get Hall, right or wrong :-\

Craig Bolton, Kennelly, Barry and Saddington (when he comes back) seem to rotate through CHB, and Goodes did very well in the position when moved back there late last year after injuring his knees. I think that Goodes will get more time in defence this year, as well as time up fwd, depending on match ups. They are looking at him to contest ball ups around the ground, but not centre bounce, unless the rule in the Wizard Cup with the circle is used in the regular season.

 

[pahoffm]

It looks like the AFL are serious about getting the Swans a flag up in Sydney. The list of 47 players offers depth that few sides can match. And the good spread of players indicate that the list has been chosen wisely. For me, the Swans no lower than last year and probably chasing a top 4 spot come finals.

I look forward to your comments.

Hi Phantom.  Do you mean the AFL are serious about a Sydney flag because they gave them financial concessions to build that depth?

I'm not so sure credit goes to the AFL, who I agree desperately want a Sydney flag, but to Sydney for building their list wisely.

Credit goes to the AFL for the concessions. Credit goes to Sydney for using these wisely.

I'd just love us to be able to put an extra 7 players on our list.

 

[Rosy]

How many players can other clubs have?

 

[mb64]

Sydney I believe are 1 side that could take a slide this year.Don't like their game plan of chipping the ball around although they seem to have responded well to Paul Roos.Not convinced about their backline,Ball well into his twilight & Jolly still unknown however they will probably win most of their home goals.Prediction 6th-10th.

 

[pahoffm]

How many players can other clubs have?

I'm not quite sure what the exact restrictions on each club are.

I know that we're currently paying about 94% of the salary cap, and restricted by that. Sydney have, I believe, a 6% excess above the salary cap for the retension of interstate sourced players. This was how it was last year, I can't remember if it's just been changed or not.

May be a good question to put to Greg, Rosy. So that we can all have a precise and reliable opinion on what it is.

 

[Dyer'ere]

Both Brisbane and Sydney are required to list a certain number of local rookies, I believe. So the extra rookie number also carries a responsibility. I don't mind this rule.

On Sydney

Shauble is 28, a b&f winner in the position, and seldom beaten. Injury problems may be under control. If Goodes can settle at chb (his natural position, IMO) they have a fine pair of key backs. Barry makes a nice trio. In the backup/development category I have a feeling LRT will make a key backman. His debut year was very promising. Not many 19yo talls show out but this kid did. His 2004 season was ruined by injury. He's tall, agile and often plays smart. Not usually a good mark. If LRT could hold a key back position, Goodes may be freed to play wing or forward. Probably take a bit longer. Mathews, Kennelly and Bevan (may get some 2nd year blues) along with Crouch, maybe Maxfield and perhaps Fixter give em plenty of options down back. On Mathews, he started to put his head over the ball again in 2004 after having 2003 off hard work. Improving his weaknesses and a good rebounder. May go to the midfield.

Craig Bolton is playing his preseason games in the midfield. I have seen him play his best football in negating midfield roles. As Kirk continues to take a more attacking role C.Bolton will tag the larger big name opposition ruckrovers and will do it well. He can hard tag, that is play a shutdown role or run-with, by which I mean, run off his opponent to create an overlap or goal shot when necessary. He continues to build his game and is quick too. Some will recall that we let him go through the PSD a couple of years ago. I regret this.

If Schneider can make a transition into a change or regular rover, and Williams and Maxfield hold their fitness/form, the Sydney on-ball division will be replete with options. However this is the department they most need to develop. McVeigh and Moore may get a go.

IMO Brett Kirk is one of the most valuable players in the AFL. From memory, only Cameron Ling beat him last year. In one game I watched him shut down Chris Judd as a side interest. Wasn't even his opponent. Use of the ball is reliable and sometimes uncanny in heavy traffic. Nothing pretty about his game.

Jude Bolton finishes his heavy work stylishly and wins plenty of hard leather. Kicks a goal. Williams and Maxfield in decline is a worry.

The Sydney forward line is the equal of any not just in its make up but in its balance.

Big bad Bazza is the key. Even though Hall doesn't kick as many goals as other full forwards he doesn't make as many U turns either. He brings team-mates into the game with his remarkable evasive skills and clever handball. He wasn't far off All Aust last year. He plays the position like a very deep chf, running hard and sometimes wide to meet the ball and breaking lines and tackles to create space before bringing the ball inboard to create a quality opportunity for a team-mate. In this way Hall's weakness (butter fingrs when marking) becomes his strength- quick recovery and dish often results in a shot from a better angle. (Richo could learn a lot from him.)

Michael O'Loughlin is not tall enough to play kp (Gaspar's flogged him their last 10? meetings) but he is unstoppable when he is able to use his pace and freakish talents to open up the forward line. The trick is to play another tall up forward to free up MO'L.

Ball and Jolly will provide the tall support for Bazza and MO'L. Probably the weakest link in the Sydney forward make-up in this role but they may only be part timers. There was oftne no genuine marking tall in the Sydney attacking zone in 04.

Nick Davis is a very flawed player. Half fit again in 04. But he provides the Sydney forward line with a big advantage. Because he is a good mark on the run and has a freakish accuracy from difficult angles he spreads the defence. You see, if ND leads to a dead pocket or deep to a flank and gets the mark, he'll kick the goal- either side and from 50m. You have to defend space that might normally be considered dead. He widens and deepens the area that has to be defended. This in turn opens space in the corridor.

Ryan O'Keefe is not a kpp. He is a big smart flanker. Nice mark. He gets up the park leaving space behind him for the other forwards and then pushes into the zone hard, timely, smart and usually central when the Swans win posession. Remember, there's often space there as the other Swans will provide a combination of genuine and decoy leads WIDE. He doesn't miss many ecause he's a good kick and he usually works central. As a type, he's not unlike A.Embley, not as quick but a better mark and smarter. He's addressed his previous lack of intensity. Buchanan may play this role at times in 05. Not as tall but can catch and kick.

Adam Schneider and probably Paul Williams will share the running hff duties in 05. Each has pace to burn and is is the final ingredient of the Sydney forward structure. Enough to get out of the area and push back when the time is right. Pace is used to break open the 50-60m area affording either a cool long shot on goal or a chip to one of the many leading players.

Goodes may play forward. Another big running player, like O'L and B.Hall. Dempster is being tried forward in the preseason. Moore, Willoughby and McVeigh may also be deployed to alter the structure.

BTW Sydney's wet weather form is bloody awful. Probably because of their reliance on clean handling and accurate use in the congestion (often their first use is backwards a wet weather sin). I mean they are filth in the wet. Really have to address this since it rains all the time in Sydney. ;D

One more comparison. Sydney is one of three or four AFL sides to play two heavy-duty inside ruckrovers. Jude Bolton and Brett Kirk. Unlike their Richmond counterparts Kane Johnsona and Mark Coughlan the sin-city pair runs very hard both ways during a game. Our chaps haven't run hard enough under Mr Frawley. I think that's about to change.

 

[jb03]

Golly jd. In depth report. Forget the analysis, what's your gut feel?

 

[Tigers of Old]

The Swannies have a good mix of old and young. Plenty of depth, solid KPP, speed, a good coach and an interstate advantage. They'll be thereabouts again.

PS: Nice reports Phantoff & Jack.

 

[Dyer'ere]

Golly jd.  In depth report.  Forget the analysis, what's your gut feel?

The sinners have a great recent record against the all conquering Brisbane. THE yardstick. They play hard-arse, inside, ugly football with intense pressure. I particuarly like the style. Port Adelaide, StKilda and Melbourne (the pretty sides) are vulnerable to this style. Barring injury (which slaughtered their 2004) certain top 4. If they had the winning finals experience I would back them for the flag at the big odds. May do anyway but my gut feel is that this lack of finals experience will tell at a critical stage of this season- late September.

BTW if Ball, Maxfield and Williams fall over and a couple of the new guys don't fill their shoes, maybe 6th or 7th.

 

[CHF]

Interesting analysis of the Swannies.

After watching them beat us late last season at the Dome I would not bother to go watch them again. Calling it "ugly" does not go any where near describing the game. I think for 95% of the game they flooded their whole 18 players back inside the defensive 50.

Melbourne could not beak it down and the result, while good for Sydney, was not a game that I would recommend as viewing.

Looking at their list, I have a few resevations. Mainly to do with their older runners and their ability to last out the season. I also get the feeling that injuries play a big part in determining Sydneys finals hopes. Over the last couple of years they seem to have had a string of soft tissue injuries that have taken the edge off their required players.

Will make the 8 but will not progress any further up the rankings.

 

[pahoffm]

I would have agreed with you in the past chf. In years gone the Swans relied heavily on Goodes & O'Loughlin in the forward zone, Nicks, Kirk, Williams & Maxfileld up the ground, and Dunkley & Schauble in defence.

Their improvement will now come from their overall depth, ie their ability to replace injured players. I see the big improvers being Jude & Craig Bolton, Fosdike, Buchanan, James, Kennelly, & Jolly from Melbourne, who will now show themselves as team leaders.