A Preseason Preview 2006- Part 4 of 16 - Essendon

[Dyer'ere]

Had to jump a couple to get a look at some more interesting sides. ;D

Essendon has been masking a problem for some time. It's becoming more obvious as the quality of second tier players around the park declines. Essendon has no midfield. Like Carlton Essendon has deployed its star in the middle with great success. Like Kouta, Hird's ageing body will no longer allow this. That leaves a donut team with a big hole on the middle.

Jason Johnson is an adequate number three mid and Peverill when fit is a very satisfactory tagger. So where are the strike midfielders? The game-breakers? Camporeale will give them some much needed run and depth but he's not enough. Solomon, battling to get the ball off his boot since the reco has worked pretty hard but has no poise or class.

Young Monfries will probably take another year or two. But because of Dadoro's inept bungling of high draft choices there is no 22yo ready to step into the breech. To cut him some slack, Ramanauskas (good luck to him) was proabably on the verge of becoming a good quality fifth mid before he was struck down. A fit Rama would be a boon for the Bummers. The only one I wouldn't begrudge them.

Here's what they've got:

Mark Bolton
Kepler Bradley
Scott Camporeale
Tristan Cartledge
Richard Cole
Courtenay Dempsey
Ricky Dyson
Dustin Fletcher (vet)
Chris Heffernan
Aaron Henneman
David Hille
James Hird (vet)
Courtney Johns
Jason Johnson
Mark Johnson
Jason Laycock
Andrew Lee
Matthew Lloyd
Sam Lonergan
Andrew Lovett
Nathan Lovett-Murray
Scott Lucas
Austin Lucy
Adam McPhee
Mark McVeigh
Angus Monfries
Jay Nash
Jay Neagle
Damien Peverill
Adam Ramanauskas
Joel Reynolds
Dean Rioli
Paddy Ryder
Henry Slattery
Dean Solomon
Brent Stanton
Jobe Watson
Andrew Welsh
Jason Winderlich

Rookies
Matthew Firman
Heath Hocking
Ben Jolly
Lachlan McKinnon
Tim O'Keefe

FB- A.Welsh, D.Fletcher, A.McPhee
HB- R.Cole, Vacancy, A.Ramanauskas*
C- D.Peverill, Vacancy, Vacancy
HF- M.Johnson, S.Lucas, J.Hird
FF- Vacancy, M.Lloyd, Vacancy
R- Vacancy, Vacancy, J.Johnson
Int- D.Hille, D.Solomon, D.Rioli, Vacancy

Very few sides will not have a full bench for a premiership side, but the Bummers are lacking in running players. The blokes almost good enough all lack pace. They've got a few comers but again the standouts are not pacy. The opposite, they are talls.

K.Bradley
J.Laycock

These two have been declared by Sheedy as "Class A" players of the future. He won't be far wrong. If they came good this year (unlikely IMO) and you could slot them into that "Premiership side", it looks okay on paper- except for the donut shape.

This is the list of maybes for midfield berths for 2006-
Courtenay Dempsey
Ricky Dyson
Andrew Lovett
Angus Monfries
Jay Nash
Joel Reynolds
Henry Slattery
Brent Stanton
Jobe Watson*
Jason Winderlich

It's a long list but most of these guys have not shown much so far (with the exception of Monfries). Stanton finds space, can break a line and receives well but he's not quick, strugggles in traffic and is very sloppy.

Lovett looks a nice type but there's not much of him and he's likely to get hurt if he plays the full season on-ball. Wouldn't have the motor yet anyway, you'd reckon. Still he's the most mature of the group and he has pace.

I'm not a fan of Joel Reynolds. He's a skinny marking player, my most hated type. Winderlich is an over-rated improver. Might make it. Dyson looks a handy outside type. Half back apprenticeship? Not an impressive lad unless you barrack for Esserden.

Nash looks average to me.

Esserden has a long list of aspiring young talls. No #3 back or forward though except, Courtney Johns (shown nothing IMO). So no versatalls coming through ATM.

They have a good list, very complete in the tall department with a huge hole in the midfield. They look a middle eight side to me ATM. If Hird were to have a big year in the middle and the young talls come on, maybe better but that's unlikely.

 

[TOT70]

This is one side with real worries. They have acknowledged their problems with a clean out this year but the players they cleared out are the ones they recruited over the last three years, give or take. They have replaced them with Campo and Heffernan, both very short-term options.

They are the same-olds again but their core group is getting smaller each season. My guess is that at the end of 2007 they will lose Hird, Camporeale, probably Peverill, maybe Fletcher and they will really struggle. Until then they will be be marking time, waiting for the rebuild. If they have got it wrong on a few of their kids their team come 2008 will be deplorable.

 

[Tigers of Old]

From what I've seen of Stanton(limited) he looks a player. I think he'll be spending plenty of time in the midfield next year. Lovett, Laycock & Bradley are also exciting types. Sheeds is as shrewd as they come but near the end. Miroring Hird they are a once great side in decline.
Let's hope the next decade is a tough one for the Bummers and their new "captain" :.

 

[pahoffm]

Essendon

Jason Laycock 200 100 21
Lachlan McKinnon 200 90 20 Rookie
Tristan Cartledge 200 95 20
David Hille 199 109 24
Dustin Fletcher 196 101 30 vet
Patrick Ryder 196 86 18 new
Kepler Bradley 195 98 20
Andrew Lee 195 89 20
Aaron Henneman 194 99 25
Jobe Watson 194 94 21
Scott Lucas 193 97 28
Mark Bolton 193 90 26
Matthew Lloyd 192 92 27
Courtney Johns 192 92 21
Austin Lucy 192 90 18 new
Tim O'Keefe 190 86 19 Rookie
Adam McPhee 189 89 23
James Hird 188 89 33 vet
Dean Solomon 188 99 26
Nathan Lovett-Murray 188 84 23
Andrew Welsh 188 84 23
Jason Winderlich 188 79 21
Joel Reynolds 187 80 21
Jay Nash 187 83 20
Jay Neagle 187 96 18 new
Chris Heffernan 186 83 27 new
Damien Peverill 186 83 26
Ben Jolly 185 80 20 Rookie
Mark McVeigh 184 84 25
Courtenay Dempsey 184 68 18 new
Henry Slattery 183 81 20
Heath Hocking 183 87 18 Rookie
Adam Ramanauskas 182 81 25
Richard Cole 182 86 22 new
Brent Stanton 182 82 19
Andrew Lovett 181 72 23
Ricky Dyson 181 80 20
Sam Lonergan 181 80 19 new
Angus Monfries 181 70 19
Scott Camporeale 180 80 30 new
Jason Johnson 179 86 28
Mark Johnson 179 83 27
Dean Rioli 179 95 27
Matthew Firman ? ? ? Rookie

The Bombers have gone for a full list of 44, including 2 vets, 8 newies, and 5 rookies.
Three of the newies are experienced players - Camporeale, Cole & Heffernan.
The Bombers list has an emphasis on running players with 27 of 44 players under 190cm (61%). It also has an emphasis on youth with 29 of 44 players under 25yo (66%).
I cannot comment on Firman except that he is an exciting young forward from Belconnen, ACT. I don't know if he is a tall or small forward.

Now let's see how their list breaks up into a spread.
Twilight = 28+yo
Prime = 25-27yo
Development = 22-24yo
Junior = 18-21yo

<180 Small Runners
Twilight: J.Johnson 28
Prime: M.Johnson 27, Rioli 27
Development: 0
Junior: 0

180-184 Smaller Mediums
Twilight: Camporeale 30
Prime: McVeigh 25, Ramanaskas 25
Development: Lovett 23, Cole 22,
Junior: Slattery 20, Dyson 20, Stanton 19, Lonergan 19, Monfries 19, Dempsey 18, Hocking 18

185-189 Taller Mediums
Twilight: Hird 33
Prime: Heffernan 27, Solomon 26, Peverill 26
Development: McPhee 23, Lovett-Murray 23, Welsh 23
Junior: Winderlich 21, Reynolds 21, Nash 20, Jolly 20, Neagle 18

190-194 Mobile Key Position
Twilight: Lucas 28
Prime: Lloyd 27, Bolton 26, Henneman 25
Development: Watson 21, Johns 21
Junior: O'Keefe 19, Lucy 18

195-199 Key Position/ Ruck
Twilight: Fletcher 30
Prime: 0
Development: Hille 24
Junior: Bradley 20, Lee 20, Ryder 18

200+ Ruck
Twilight: 0
Prime: 0
Development: 0
Junior: Laycock 21, McKinnon 20, Cartledge 20

Again, I can't place Firman without more data.
Essendon will continue to have more problems in 2006. They are still relying on the aging Johnsons to do all there roving. Hille is far to big to play in the ruck, which means that they'll have to rely on a 21yo, Laycock, and 2 x 21yos to do their rucking.
The Bombers are definitely going through a rebuilding phase, but their list does look way out of wack. They too are now paying for very poor recruiting over the last few years.

Their coverage of positions is as follows:
B: M.Johnson 27 Fletcher 30 Bolton 26
McVeigh 25 Henneman 25 O'Keefe 19
Cole 22 Lucy 18

HB: McPhee 23 Bradley 20 Ramanauskas 25
Welsh 23 Ryder 18 Heffernan 27
Jolley 20

C: Solomon 26 Peverill 26 Rioli 27
Reynolds 21 Stanton 19 Winderlich 21
Stanton 19 Nash 20

HF: Hird 33 Lucas 28 Camporeale 30
Lovett 23 Watson 24 Dempsey 18
Firman ? Lee 20

F: Hille 24 Lloyd 27 Lovett-Murray 23
Neagle 18 Johns 21 Monfries 19

R: Laycock 21 Dyson 20 J.Johnson 28
Cartledge 20 Slattery 20 Lonergan 19
McKinnon 20 Hocking 18

Just looking at this side you can see that the Bombers are quite a fair way off being a force again.
Players such as Peverill, Rioli, Bolton, McVeigh, Henneman who have plateaued below expectation are still on the list.
Hird and the Johnsons were great players with their best behind them.
Watson 194cm, 94kg, and 24yo still hasn't made it.
Hille 199cm, 109kg and 24yo still hasn't made it either.
My guess is that the Dons are a some way off, but they too are headed in the right direction. Predict a marginal improvement from last year.

 

[mk33]

Like Brisbane they still have some good leftover players from their premiership days but they are all around 30 years. Heffernan and Camporeale were disappointing choices for them and hard to see if they will be there in 2 years time.

Up forward Lloyd is still capable of kicking 100 and Lucas is a good chf, the have ruckmen in Laycock and Hille that can play forward as apparently can Ryder. Johns has also kicked some goals in practice matches, so there is depth there. The problem is getting it to them and the midfield is not great.

Hird will play more up forward than midfield and J.Johnson will be first picked onball but support will be needed from Stanton, Dyson, Monfries and Lovett. Apart from Stanton all not recognised as midfielders.

Down back are problems too, Fletcher has played some bad games in recent years, Bradley is young and raw, Solomon is just a flanker as with Lovett-Murray and Bolton and Henneman are not up to it. ole and Slattery will be new additions to play as running backman.

The ruck divison has youth and depth but are raw. They are versaltile and can afford to play 2-3 changing fwd.

Can make the eight has there is still some talent but more likely 10th -14th

Players to watch
Laycock and Bradley are raw but agile and versaltile.

On the decline
Rioli still can't find a suitable position
Reynolds has had his chances
Bolton is a fill in

 

[Dyer'ere]

At the halfway mark, Esserden look even worse than I thought.

Dadoro's lepers play for the struggling Bendigo and Lloyd and Hird go to the races.

The bloke I forgot to bag was Hille- the future captain. Creep. Leper. Dud. A worthy captian of the Esserden scum.