A Preseason Preview 2006- Part 3 of 16 - Hawthorn

[Dyer'ere]

This is an interesting one. This team has some bones now and is on the way to rebuilding. They've taken a balanced approach to their recruiting with the exception that they took the best tall with selection #2 in 2004 rather than Ryan Griffin or Richard Tambling. History may show that they were right to do so. I think it's already very likely that Roughead will be a more valuable player than any other than Griffin who was available.

What have they got?

Max Bailey
Matthew Ball
John Barker
Chance Bateman
Grant Birchall
Tim Boyle
Luke Brennan
Campbell Brown
Robert Campbell
Tim Clarke
Shane Crawford (vet)
Trent Croad
Zac Dawson
Ben Dixon
Beau Dowler
Xavier Ellis
Peter Everitt
Lance Franklin
Brent Guerra
Luke Hodge
Danny Jacobs
Rick Ladson
Jordan Lewis
Matt Little
Harry Miller
Sam Mitchell
Thomas Murphy
Beau Muston
Michael Osborne
Nick Ries
Jarryd Roughead
Brad Sewell
Joel Smith
Simon Taylor
Josh Thurgood
Travis Tuck
Richie Vandenberg
Mark Williams
Clinton Young

Rookies
Stephen Gilham
Ben Kane
Lucas Markovic
Luke McEntee
Ben McGlynn

The Hawks have that old familiar problem- weak midfield. A lot is riding on the shoulders of Jordan Lewis and Sam Mitchell. Like all the sides around them they have a midfield which was once led by a star (their star, Shane Crawford is by far the least talented of the quartet (Buckley, Hird, Koutoufides) IMO. But a star he has been albeit for only a short time.

One the one hand, he's the fittest of the quartet, on the other, lackoing their talent he is equally unlikely to tear 2006 apart. That leaves a hole for a newcomer.

Premiership Side

FB- Vacancy, Vacancy, T.Croad
HB- L.Hodge, Vacancy, J.Smith
C- S.Crawford, Vacancy, Vacancy
HF- Vacancy, Vacancy, Vacancy
FF- M.Williams, Vacancy, Vacancy
R- P.Everitt, Vacancy, Vacancy
Int: R.Campbell, R.Vandenberg, S.Mitchell, C.Bateman

The most obvious bloke to take a spot in the midfield is Luke Hodge. He was racking up posessions on the half back flank in 2005 and was changing midfield more as the season wore on. He panics under pressure in the middle. Sometimes even when there's no pressure. But he's going to improve. I'm not convinced about his midfield prospects yet but he can get a kick when it matters (albeit wasted, the kick not the player, I think :hihi). Looks okay to me.

The bloke who worries me most on this list is Sam Mitchell. Yeah, Sam Mitchell. I like almost every aspect of his game except one. I think he lacks ball-winning ability. I know, he gets oodles of ball sometimes but I've noticed that he can't get it when a star wants it. To sum him up, I think he's a poor man's Paul Broderick, lacks the class of Wom's disposal but he plays hard inside and is slow. If he gets beat, there's nowhere to hide a slow with average disposal. If he can improve his defensive game (which is okay) he might become a ball-winning tagger. These guys are gold. But I'm not convinced.

T.Croad made All-Aust in 2005. A decoy CHB making the most of the lack of genuine CHF's in the AFL, IMO ATM. ;D He's dumb, can't use and plays careful. I don't like him playing KPP against a good side. If he could get some poise he plays #3 forward well.

Chance Bateman is just very average and Richie's got some cods but cumulative injury has taken its toll.

So who's coming through?

Plenty. The Hawks punted Hay because they are planning to use Roughead in the key defensive slot next year. He's ready and not far behind D.Fletcher at the same age. He faces a tougher task than Fletcher did as he lacks aerial support. Both Jacobs (a leper) and Croad (a jib) are far too mindful of their own safety to help the kid out but he's man enough to get by without them... at 19yo. He'll probably get a hiding or two but he'll learn.

Lewis is a "jury out" case for me. I like him and I think he might make an inside midfielder and replace Mitchell. He's 20yo for 2006 and he should start to play some valuable midfield footy now if he's ever going to. Inconsistency is okay but he's got to show. He's a big lad and can kick. Time will tell.

Lance Franklin may never make a KPP. A lot will depend on his growth. But even if he stays light, he'll probably develop into a nice HFF. He can run and if he learns where to run to (not a certain development) he could be very handy.

This is the trio who will get the chance to put themselves into the Hawks' premiership eighteen.

Boyle di some good things this season. Coming off that Brown-like broken leg he showed talent in the air and on the ground, inside and out. I guess the problem with his game as a youngster was a lack of hardness. He stood up to the tough stuff okay in the seniors this season. He might make it.

Osborne is one I like. Old fashioned, hard-hitting but struggling with injury. I hope he gets some poise and confidence in 2006.

Hawthorn picked up a nice mix from this years draft. How good is this year's draft? The answer will have a big impact on Hawthorn.

 

[pahoffm]

HAWTHORN Ht Wt Age
Peter Everitt 203 102 31
John Barker 194 91 31
Shane Crawford 174 80 31 vet
Richie Vandenberg 178 84 29
Ben Dixon 188 91 28
Joel Smith 185 87 28
Trent Croad 190 96 26
Danny Jacobs 189 93 25
Matthew Ball 183 83 24
Chance Bateman 174 76 24
Simon Taylor 200 99 23
Robert Campbell 199 107 23
Ben Kane 183 82 23 Rookies
Nick Ries 182 83 23
Brent Guerra 181 91 23 new
Sam Mitchell 179 84 23
Michael Osborne 178 80 23
Tim Clarke 176 78 23
Tim Boyle 193 92 22
Brad Sewell 180 84 22
Mark Williams 180 82 22
Rick Ladson 179 78 22
Campbell Brown 177 84 22
Stephen Gilham 191 84 21 Rookies
Luke Brennan 185 84 21
Luke Hodge 184 90 21
Max Bailey 206 93 20 new
Zac Dawson 195 83 20
Josh Thurgood 190 76 20
Thomas Murphy 189 86 20
Clinton Young 189 76 20
Matt Little 187 74 20
Harry Miller 174 77 20
Ben McGlynn 173 77 20 Rookies
Luke McEntee 197 89 19 Rookies
Lance Franklin 196 90 19
Beau Dowler 195 84 19 new
Jarryd Roughead 193 89 19
Grant Birchall 192 84 19 new
Lucas Markovic 192 83 19 Rookies
Beau Muston 189 79 19 new
Jordan Lewis 186 89 19
Travis Tuck 188 79 18 new
Xavier Ellis 186 72 18 new

Hawthorn, too, have gone for a full list of 44 players, including 1 vet, 7 newies and 5 rookies.
An interesting division of players. 1o players, 25% of their list, are less than 180cm. I like rovers too, but 10 seems a bit over the top.
They have 5 ruckmen, 3 over 200cms, and 2 just under, which seems a bit over the top also.
21 of their 44 players are 21yo or less. This gives them a great future, but may cause short term problems.
They only have 7 players over the age of 25yo, so they've got rid of a lot that was hurting them 2-3 years ago.

Now let's see how their list breaks up into a spread.
Twilight = 28+yo
Prime = 25-27yo
Development = 22-24yo
Junior = 18-21yo

<180 Small Runners
Twilight: Crawford 31, Vandenburg 29
Prime: 0
Development: Bateman 24, Mitchell 23, Osborne 23, Clarke 23, Ladson 22, Brown 22,
Junior: Miller 20, McGlynn 20

180-184 Smaller Mediums
Twilight:
Prime:
Development: Ball 24, Kane 23, Ries 23, Guerra 23, Sewell 22, Williams 22
Junior: Hodge 21

185-189 Taller Mediums
Twilight: Smith 28, Dixon 28
Prime: Jacobs 25
Development: Brennan 21, Murphy 20, Young 20, Little 20, Muston 19, Lewis 19, Tuck 18, Ellis 18
Junior:

190-194 Mobile Key Position
Twilight: Barker 31
Prime: Croad 26
Development: Boyle 22,
Junior: Gilham 21, Thurgood 20, Roughead 19, Birchall 19, Markovic 19

195-199 Key Position/ Ruck
Twilight:
Prime:
Development: Campbell 23
Junior: Dawson 20, Franklin 19, McEntee 19, Dowler 19

200+ Ruck
Twilight: Everitt 31
Prime:
Development: Taylor 23
Junior: Bailey 20

Amazing, I've looked at the spread of this list and realised something. Guess what?
The Hawthorn list pretty well conforms to the structure that Terry wants the Tigers to be at to be genuine finals contenders.
Look see. Around 15 or more ruckrovers between the ages of 25-20, and as Terry says, the kpps can come after, which as we see the Hawkers have done over the last 2 years.
So, if Terry is right, the Hawkers will be genuinely knocking on the door to the finals this year.
I'm sceptical, I think the immaturity of their spine will let them down again. But I could be wrong.

Their coverage of positions is as follows:
B: Osborne 23 Murphy 20 Boyle 22
Kane 23                        Young 20
Sewell 22

HB: Smith 28 Croad 26 Jacobs 25
Brennan 21           Gilham 21
Lewis 19                     Ellis 18


C: Thurgood 20 Hodge 21 Ball 24
Birchall 19                         Ries 23
Tuck 18

HF: Dixon 28 Barker 31 Crawford 31
Brown 22 Roughead 19 Guerra 23
                 Markovic 19

F: Franklin 19 Williams 22 Ladson 22
Dawson 20 Little 20 Miller 20
                  Dowler 19

R: Everitt 31 Vandenburg 28 Bateman 24
Taylor 23 Mitchell 23 Clarke 23
Campbell 23 Muston 19 McGlynn 20
Bailey 20
McEntee 19

So there you have it, Terry's team of ruckrovers with a sprinkling of forward kpps that can be turned into key defenders.
How confident are you about this setup? I've got to admit that it looks very thin to me.
But as Terry says, this is the setup that will be a genuine contender for finals of the future.
I believe whatever Terry tells me, regardless, so I should be expecting the Hawks to be knocking on the door to the finals in 2006.
Maybe yes, maybe no.
A great guide to the Tiger future anyway.

 

[craig]

Good effort Phanto but they still have to get rid of Barker, Dixon, Bateman, Vandenberg, Guerra , Brown, Ries and Jacobs cos they are all duds or are past it.
I dont normally go too many blokes at other clubs but i dont reckon losing any of these blokes at years end will hurt the Hawx anyways especially with draftees such as Muston and Dowler, Ellis , Boyle , Taylor and Tuck to call on in 06 and the 07 season.
Another good placing in the pointy end of the superdraft will have the Hawkers very very nicely placed for the future no doubt and the Hawk fans have some good years to look forward to as do Doggie fans and Tiger fans as well.

 

[Ready]

I can't believe you have Robert Campbell on the interchange for your premiership skeleton, JD.

Premiership ruckmen from the past ten seasons: Ball, Jolly, Brogan, Lade, C. Keating, Charman, McDonald, Barnes, Alessio, McKernan, Capuano, Longmire, Rehn, Marsh, A. Keating.

Interestingly none of these are truly top class save for Rehn. Even so, the rest are far above Campbell, save for Marsh and Aaron Keating, although they did a few decent things in those respective finals series for Adelaide.

 

[Mollster]

Good effort Phanto but they still have to get rid of Barker, Dixon, Bateman, Vandenberg, Guerra , Brown, Ries and Jacobs cos they are all duds or are past it.
I dont normally go too many blokes at other clubs but i dont reckon losing any of these blokes at years end will hurt the Hawx anyways especially with draftees such as Muston and Dowler, Ellis , Boyle , Taylor and Tuck to call on in 06 and the 07 season.
Another good placing in the pointy end of the superdraft will have the Hawkers very very nicely placed for the future no doubt and the Hawk fans have some good years to look forward to as do Doggie fans and Tiger fans as well.

(have to admitt that I am a Hawks fan so might be bias but)
Are you saying that Bateman and Brown (at minimum) are Past it? Because they definitely aren't duds. Bateman is emerging and had a very good last year until injured (in fact if you look at it we were beating St Kilda until his injury, and if you watch the game, he was sorely missed) and Brown is a hard nut that does a great job in defense. Okay he is prone to brain malfunctions (must get that from his dad) but his corage and determination are unquestionable.

JMTC
Molly

 

[Tigers of Old]

Bateman is emerging and had a very good last year until injured (in fact if you look at it we were beating St Kilda until his injury, and if you watch the game, he was sorely missed)

I agree Molly. Bateman was a huge improver for the Hawks last season. I'd written him off before last year as a DUD. But I watched him closely in a couple of games and he is definately an emerging player. I can understand why you'd defend him

 

[tigersnake]

Bateman is definately no dud. Looked to have really arrived last year, and looked to me to have the makings of a 200 game elite midfielder/ flanker.

I agree with a lot of your assessments of the others, Jacobs would be in the top 5 biggest duds, in terms of regular senior players in the league. Got me stuffed why he's still on an AFL list.

If Barker can stay fit he's worth having on the list. Also Dixon, while he's no worldbeater, can play a good role with good players around him, looked to have a minor renaissance last year. Vandenberg and Brown are just honest triers.

 

[Dyer'ere]

I can't believe you have Robert Campbell on the interchange for your premiership skeleton, JD.

Premiership ruckmen from the past ten seasons: Ball, Jolly, Brogan, Lade, C. Keating, Charman, McDonald, Barnes, Alessio, McKernan, Capuano, Longmire, Rehn, Marsh, A. Keating.

Interestingly none of these are truly top class save for Rehn. Even so, the rest are far above Campbell, save for Marsh and Aaron Keating, although they did a few decent things in those respective finals series for Adelaide.

I guess you've argued my case for me, Ready. Bloody generous. ;D

I don't think Robert Campbell is a premiership player's freckle either, Ready. Nor Capuano, A.Keating or B.Marsh. But there you have it. You can have a dud #2 ruckman in a premiership side, particularly if your #1 is Everitt. RC's a bit 'orrible which is a virtue in a backup ruckman.

Of course Campbell is not a satisfactory full-time ruck so when Everitt retires they've got NO rucks.

Holes will open up in the Hawthorn line-up over the next coupla years.

Phanto, I reckon they've taken Dowler as their full-forward prospect. They may groom Roughead for the CHF or FF slot but he ain't played an AFL game forward yet. I'm near certain he'll play key back in 2006. I must say, though that I think you've got their plan right. They definitely look to be setting up a varied forward line up with maybe only one genuine KPP at each end. Just like Terry says he's doing.

 

[mk33]

The Hawks have taken a hit to plan for the future and seem to be building around big key players, with their spine to look like Dawson, Boyle , Roughead, Franklin and Dowler to take key fwds and defensive posts.

Dowler may not play this year, so Williams will probably play ff with Franklin next to him but Williams can play leading fp. Boyle and Roughhead may change CHF/CHB. Cant seem much game time for Barker and Dixon only support roles only.

Everitt is the best tap ruckman in competition and Bailey could be his successor.Taylor and Campbell are servicable plodders.

Midfield is a weakness and still has not really been addressed, maybe next year draft.

Lewis Mitchell and Hodge are ball magnets but no great leg speed, although Hodge is a huge talent and a great kick. Crawford and Vanden Berg have seen better days, though Crawford will still be valueable.

Backline is a bit light on I see Boyle and Roughhead perhaps changing and Dawson perhaps as one tall back with Croad and then Jacobs as a back up. Osborne and Bateman will be the primary runners from the backline.

Still a bit away for the Hawks but are going about it the right way, will be hoping for 6-8 wins this year for improvement.

Players to watch
Young KPP Roughhead, Boyle and Dawson may find themselves with big tasks this year but it may help for future development.,

Players on the decline
Nick Ries - been in the system a long time and still no set position as with Ladson.
Barker and Jacobs may be seen as back ups only this year.

 

[Dyer'ere]

Mid season- Rd 11 (Did I jump the gun? ;D)

Looks like you were right about Clarkson, Phanto, he's played Roughead forward most of the year- IN HIS SECOND YEAR. I over-estimated AC.

Roughead has played some footy in defence with good results, can't get the ball in the front half. Supply is poor at times but he looks lost.

Hodge has been good but looks to have a (groin?) injury and is struggling a bit ATM. His numbers look okay but he's not using. The return of Crawf might alleviate the pressure.

Lewis struggled a bit but he's just 20yo in the midfield. Ordinary disposal. Wait on! He can kick very nicely at his best. Why is his disposal so poor? Because he's struggling with the pace of the game. He's feeling heat even when it's not there. 2YB or too slow for his talent? Jury out.

But Mitchell bore out my theory about him beautifully in round 11. Cannot get a kick if he's manned up by a talented opponent. One trick pony. If you've got the balls to call what's obvious early, you can trade this type. He's gotta go. Very limited at what he does best.

Before you queue up to say "We'll have him" watch him closely at the stoppages. He has no acceleration and no awareness when tackled from behind. He is easily tagged out of it. He is too light to be stationary when the ball is thrown or bounced and he does not run at them unless the clearance is positive. Then he cannot use. Mediocre player in a dud side.

Campbell is playing #1 back for them. Because they are desperate. They have no tall backs.

Lance is a small. Or a dud. Or both. Maybe 2YB but I didn't like his first year or the year before that.

This team has won four of five in the phoney season (rounds one to five) and one since. Impostors in 2006. The future? We have no evidence to date.