A Preseason Preview 2006- Part 1 of 16 - Carlton

[Dyer'ere]

Sorry, Phantom. I couldn't wait. ;D Had to start looking at some lists.

CARLTON
Jordan Bannister
Adam Bentick
Eddie Betts
Luke Blackwell
Paul Bower
Chris Bryan
Andrew Carrazzo
Callum Chambers
Justin Davies
Adrian Deluca
Jake Edwards
Brendan Fevola
Brad Fisher
Barnaby French
Adam Hartlett
Ryan Houlihan
Joshua Kennedy
Anthony Koutoufides (vet)
Matthew Lappin
Luke Livingston
Troy Longmuir
Cory McGrath
Dylan McLaren
Marc Murphy
Setanta O'hAilpin
Ian Prendergast
Anthony Raso
Jordan Russell
Jason Saddington
Heath Scotland
Kade Simpson
Trent Sporn
Nick Stevens
David Teague
Bret Thornton
Jarrad Waite
Andrew Walker
Lance Whitnall
Simon Wiggins

Rookies
Daniel Batson
Craig Flint
Ryan Jackson
Aisake O'hAilpin
Jesse D. Smith

I like to have a look at the lock-ins first. This is what their premiership side looks like to me.

FB- Vacancy, Vacancy, B.Thornton
HB- Vacancy, L.Whitnall, Vacancy
C- Vacancy, N.Stevens, Vacancy
HF- J.Waite, Vacancy, Vacancy
FF- Vacancy, B.Fevola, Vacancy
R- Vacancy, Vacancy, Vacancy
Inter- B.French, A.Koutoufides, A.Carrazzo, E.Betts

I've left most of their regualr seniors off this list because they are going nowhere fast. No ability. In fact the Blues' senior list is best described by the term "vacancy". The fact is that their second tier players marking time. The recycled players picked up in the off-season are worse than useless. A bit like last year. Someone's got to pay for this. Thankfully, it'll be Carlton. ;D

Brad Fisher is a player I haven't factored. He's a mis-match player. A fine mark for a player of his (insignificant) mass. He could go either way but I expect him to get matched up well in 2006 and to fade. That's my hunch. Still he's smart and can get to space. Maybe HBF if he can gain some weight.

The big problem with this list is obvious. Without Kouta it has no midfield. An in-form Kouta is worth two ordinary mid-fielders and he's been helping them to hide a huge problem. Heath Scotland is not an AFL class midfielder. He lacks ability. He can't get a kick against a class mid. That leaves only Stevens to win the leather. Too big an ask. They will miss Camporeale in 2006 and probably the pold champ, Kouta.

Along with Carrazzo, this list may hold the key to the Blues' 2006:
Adam Bentick
Luke Blackwell
Marc Murphy
Jordan Russell
Andrew Walker

If a couple of these lads can find AFL class midfield form early the Blues may improve in 2006. I'm not a rap for Walker. Athletic, scrappy, dumb. But he's young. Maybe he can learn. But the other lads might come on this year. I like the other four.

If a couple of these lads can hit the ground running it would be a big boost to Carlton's spine (they're not so bad in the spine).

Joshua Kennedy
Paul Bower
Chris Bryan

But it looks like they'll need a big improvement from a bunch of youngsters and a fit Kouta if they are to improve on 16th. If Kouta goes under, maybe 17th.

The stupid thing is that even though they look like *smile* and will probably finish last, they are a lot better off than this time last year when they had no talent AND no youth. They can expect more agony but this time they have hope.

 

[pahoffm]

Just noticed, well done.
I was going to start this week.

I'll add mine onto yours.

 

[pahoffm]

OK, here's my first one for the year.
I haven't read your's yet, BJ, so it will be interesting to compare our views after posting.
(Mine should have formatting errors everywhere.)

CARLTON Ht Wt Age
Adrian Deluca 202 99 23
Daniel Batson 202 93 20 rookie
Barnaby French 200 102 30
Aisake O'hAilpin 199 86 21 rookie
Setanta O'hAilpin 198 86 23
Chris Bryan 197 100 24
Dylan McLaren 196 90 23 new
Joshua Kennedy 195 92 19 new
Adam Hartlett 195 88 19
Jason Saddington 194 88 27 new
Ian Prendergast 192 98 25
Luke Livingston 192 97 23
Jarrad Waite 192 93 23
Bret Thornton 192 95 22
Brad Fisher 192 82 21
Paul Bower 192 87 18 new
Jake Edwards 192 82 18 new
Anthony Kout'fides 191 98 33 vet
Brendan Fevola 191 100 25
Lance Whitnall 190 100 26
Jordan Bannister 190 88 23
Anthony Raso 190 75 18
Andrew Walker 189 85 19
Craig Flint                 189 90 18 rookie
Jordan Russell 188 77 25
Trent Sporn 188 85 23
Ryan Jackson 188 81 19 rookie
David Teague 187 90 24
Ryan Houlihan 187 84 24
Simon Wiggins 187 88 23
Andrew Carrazzo 187 88 22
Troy Longmuir 185 81 26
Callum Chambers 184 78 26
Justin Davies 184 80 22
Adam Bentick 184 83 20
Jesse D. Smith 183 85 20 rookie
Matthew Lappin 182 77 30
Cory McGrath 182 86 27
Heath Scotland 182 85 25
Kade Simpson 182 76 21
Nick Stevens 180 85 26
Marc Murphy 179 75 18 new
Luke Blackwell 177 70 19
Eddie Betts 173 75 19

So we start off with Carlton. Regardless of their financial problems they've gone in with 44 players, (I believe that's the full compliment.)
6 new players & 5 rookies(1 vet). One is immediately hit by the number of talls on the list. 22 of 44 players, if I've counted correctly, are 190cm or above.
To me, that's way out of whack. Who is going to do their running for them. That leaves, of course, 22 players to fill the midfield and flanks.

Now let's see how their list breaks up into a spread.
Twilight = 28+yo
Prime = 25-27yo
Development = 22-24yo
Junior = 18-21yo

<180 Small Runners
Twilight: 0
Prime: 0
Development: 0
Junior: Betts 19, Blackwell 19, Murphy 18

180-184 Smaller Mediums
Twilight: Lappin 30
Prime: McGrath 27, Stevens 26, Chambers 26, Scotland 25
Development: Davies 22
Junior: Simpson 21, Bentick 20, Smith 20,

185-189 Taller Mediums
Twilight: 0
Prime: Longmuir 26, Russell 25
Development: Teague 24, Houlihan 24, Sporn 23, Wiggins 23, Carrazzo 22
Junior: Walker 19, Jackson 19, Flint 18,

190-194 Mobile Key Position
Twilight: Koutoufides 33
Prime: Saddington 27, Whitnall 26, Prendergast 25, Fevola 25
Development: Livingston 23, Waite 23, Bannister 23, Thornton 22
Junior: Fisher 21, Bower 18, Edwards 18, Raso 18

195-199 Key Position/ Ruck
Twilight: 0
Prime: 0
Development: Bryan 24, McLaren 23, S.O'hAilpin 23,
Junior: A.O'hAilpin 21, Kennedy 19, Hartlett 19

200+ Ruck
Twilight: French 30
Prime: 0
Development: Deluca 23
Junior: Batson 20

So now it seems a bit clearer. Carlton is going Hawthorn's way. They've cleared out their list and kept their prime and development runners & talls.
My guess is they've committed about 2/3rds of their list to the present and short term. With the other 1/3 they've decided to commit to the long term future.
It is an interesting gamble, but my gutfeel is that they are extremely unlikely to run out a full season.

Their coverage of positions is as follows:
B:    Teague 24    Thornton 22       Saddington 27
       McGrath 27    Livingston 23

HB:  Houlihan 24  Whitnall 26         Longmuir 26
        Wiggins 23   Prendergast 25  Bannister 23
        Simpson 21  Bower 18            Sporn 23
        Flint 18

C:    Koutoufidis 33  Stevens 26      Russell 22
        Walker 19        Smith 20          Chambers 26

HF:   Fisher 21         Waite 23          Lappin 30
        Raso 18           Kennedy 19     Carrazzo 22
                                Edwards 18     Davies 22

F:     S.O'hAilpin 23   Fevola 25        Betts 19
        McLaren 23      Hartlett 19       Blackwell 19
        A.O'hAilpin 21

R:     French 30        Scotland 25      Bentick 20
         Bryan 24         Jackson 19       Murphy 19
         Deluca 23
         Batson 20

Again, the lack of midfield runners show Carlton's greatest weakness. They barely have enough runners to fill a 22 for 1 game, let alone a full season.
One thing is for certain, they've got about 5 ruckman who're all just about to click at the same time. This could be a very good place to cast an eye come the end of the season.

Conclusion:
Not much change for Carlton. They're going down the same road as Hawthorn. Maybe a little bit better balanced than the Hawkers.
Hard to guage upon last year. Did they throw the towel in early last year? (Yes.) Will they chuck it in again? (Probably yes.)
Marginal improvement only. A cold winter for the Bluebaggers.

Once I read this I know there'll be a heap of errors in it. Be kind, please.

I look forward to your comments.

(Have to get to juniors training (cricket). I'll tidy the formatting up tomorrow.)

 

[Tigermad2005]

Should have 1st pick in this years draft. Will be very lucky to win more than 4 games, but that said most likly will beat us.

 

[mk33]

Carlton have finally hit the rebuild button after their recruitment disaster of 2 years ago(Harford, Morrell, Johnson all gone) and finish of draft penalties, Carlton get tom do what they hoped to do 3 years ago.

Up forward if firing is not that bad but they key is firing. Fevola is capable of kicking goals and Waite looks a fantastic player and may play CHF depending on where Whitnall plays. If Lance plays up forward he may act as decoy and take good opponent to free up Waite and Fisher, if he is on a lesser light he may still kick2-3 goals.Deluca can also play as a tall fwd but after that is youngsters like Kennedy.

Murphy will be an addition to the midfield but Carlton will be hoping Walker also steps up and release Kouta up fwd or down back. Expect game time from Jordan Russell and Nick Stevens will play full time in midfield. Other options are thin with Scotland who tries hard but is one paced and skilled, Kade Simpson and run with players Bentick and Carazzo.

Down back there are still problems, Bret Thornton is a worker but needs help from Luke Livingstone. Jason saddington would be a 3rd tall option with Lance and Kouta possible options. Kids like Bower, OHailpin, Hartlett and part time ruck Bryan will also be used. David Teague is courageas but small defenders will be relied upon Carazzo and Bentick with Betts the small fwd option.

Will finish bottom 4 more likely last but will be hoping for 5 wins (but maybe no more).

Players to watch
Brad Fisher showed against us he is very good marking fwd option, not a KPP but a good player for his size.
Adam Bentick will be used more in midfield as prime run with player

On the way out
Ryan Houlihan skilled but not in Pagans game plan.
Wiggins and Longmuir will never be any good and are lucky to still have an AFL income