2008 - Preseason Preview - 8th of 16 - St Kilda

[Dyer'ere]

Senior List:

1. Allen, Jarryd
2. Armitage, David
3. Baker, Steven
4. Ball, Luke
5. Birss, Shane
6. Blake, Jason
7. Clarke, Raphael
8. Clarke, Xavier
9. Connors, Eljay
10. Dal Santo, Nick
11. Dempster, Sean
12. Ferguson, Matthew
13. Fiora, Aaron
14. Fisher, Leigh
15. Fisher, Sam
16. Gardiner, Charlie
17. Gardiner, Michael
18. Geary, Jarryn
19. Gehrig, Fraser
20. Gilbert, Sam
21. Goddard, Brendon
22. Gram, Jason
23. Gwilt, James
24. Harvey, Robert (veteran – inside list)
25. Hayes, Lenny
26. Howard, Brad
27. Hudghton, Max (veteran – inside list)
28. Jones, Clinton
29. King, Steven
30. Koschitzke, Justin
31. Maguire, Matt
32. McEvoy, Ben
33. Milne, Stephen
34. Montagna, Leigh
35. Riewoldt, Nick
36. Rix, Michael
37. Schneider, Adam
38. Steven, Jack

Rookies:
* Jayden Attard
* Glenn Chivers
* Robert Eddy
* Khan Haretuku
* Andrew McQualter
* Luke Miles
* Luke van Rheenen

 

[Dyer'ere]

Re: 2008 - Preseason Preview - 9th of 16 - St Kilda

This is the side that most interests me ATM for 2008. Despite a big injury contingent the Saints almost limped into the finals in 07. [Oops.]

But the setup at St Kilda is currently in flux. It will be interesting to see what Lyon implements. I expect him to set them up more in the Sydney mould than the Footscray style.

We know that Maguire will be a scratching again but that Goddard will resume from a knee and that crucially Lenny Hayes, who has for some years been clearly their best player IMO, will have largely recovered from his 2006 ACL. This is the boon for them. That and that at last they might have an AFL class ruckman in King.

Goddard is a problem IMO. When Pt Adelaide was reliant on Francou in the midfield he was routinely taken out of big games. With Roger James in the middle in their 04 campaign they won the flag. Haselby missed 06 and the Freo midfield looked 100% better. Freo made the four. Neither of these players is a dud. But each was a liability and their teams improved without them.

Goddard, playing LMID, is IMO a liability. And if he follows the usual pattern of ACL recovery he won't be much chop in 08 anyway. Which is a blessing for the Saints. They can set up a legitimate back line structure. FWIW Goddard reminds me a bit of Joel Bowden (until we finally realised that JB is a tall)- a good footballer without a position.


Backline:

With Sam Fisher continuing to improve and Gram doing a job on a flank they have only two backline positions settled - #2 back and HBF. The logical move is Koschitzke returns to CHB where he won the Rising Star award. But with Gehrig an unknown he may be needed at the other end. Let's assume Gehrig has another year in him and that St Kilda needs to start setting up a post-Gehrig forward line. Then Gehrig plays #1 back, maybe at CHB if he's fit enough. If they get into strife, they rotate.

B L.Fisher S.Fisher/Gehrig Hudghton/S.Gilbert/Blake/Maguire
HB J.Gram Koschitzke/S.Fisher S.Dempster/Gwilt


Midfield:

St Kilda's midfield has been massively over-rated for years. IMO it has always been their weakness. In their prime year of 04 Hamill was the bloke smashing the packs. Hayes was inside them and Ball was, at what 19(?), used as a battering ram by his imbecile coach with disastrous consequences.

There is no inside mid in the AFL who Lenny Hayes can't beat. The geniuses: Kerr, Kirk, Black are all just as likely to walk off the park getting square or beaten as marginally in front. If LH comes up in 08 and he should, that's one midfield slot fully covered.

It's the next slot that's weak. Nick Dal Santo is a very good player but in the ranks of AFL midfielders he's just one of many at the level. He has a talent that's massively under-utilised - he has an excellent defensive game. Don't be under any illusions about his attacking game. If there's a big game and Dal Santo gets an elite opponent NDS won't cut him up going the other way. He just isn't quick enough, strong enough or evasive enough to do it. In short he's not good enough.

But if he can play on an elite team's elite mid and win at the stoppages St Kilda's midfield goes up a notch. Nick Dal Santo should play inside mid at the stoppages with Hayes, just as Kirk and Bolton have done for Sydney.

The next slot is a real problem. Unfortunately little Luke Ball has been used in heavy-duty roles at AFL level since he was a teenager. It has taken a toll. First his skills were never polished, nor his outside game, which limits his versatility. And secondly he is struggling with cumulative injury. He has to be nursed and now.

Jimmy Bartel in 2006 was used mainly across halfback while he recovered from groin and whatever other injuries. He was kept pretty much out of the stoppages. This appears the right path for Ball. I don't think there's much between these two for talent but Bartel has been better coached/handled. With a year of mopping up at half back Ball can take the stress off his injuries and polish his game a little.

That leaves Baker for outside defensive mid (tagging runners), Montagna, Milne (in the role he played in 07) and Harvey for outside running duties. Schneider can do this job too. For some extra muscle at the packs all the Saints have is Goddard who has not shown any talent in this aspect to date and is off the ACL, and Blake who is a great pack smasher in short bursts but doesn't offer enough at this stage. There is a vacancy here. Birss might play a bit part.

It's not a bad midfield but as you can see a lot of it rests on finding an elite #2 mid and if you're weak at #2 you're weak.


Forward:

The forward line is interesting. There are two schools of thought on Nick Riewoldt: 1) he's an ant; 2) he's a champion. I subscribe to neither. He's the second best CHF in the AFL IMO. He's a little light for the punishment he has to endure but he frequently overcomes this. His goal kicking is suspect but at least he can get a goal shot. His field kicking is excellent. And he has high footy smarts. If he gets into trouble at CHF (rare) he can go into an outside mid role.

The weakness is that he is not big/good enough to carry the #1 forward mantle, at least not alone. A fit Gehrig is the logical foil. But for how long?

Football Axiom # 1286: The dumber you are the nearer you play to goal. If this is so Justin Koschitzke should be slotted in with the goal umpire's flags. Trouble with those hard and fast rules is that the exceptions are just as common as the conformists and Koschitzke is IMO a natural CHB. But full forwards are hard to get and Kosi is a candidate with some form. If it doesn't work out in the pre-season Gehrig resumes in his old slot.

With Milne now floating into the midfield, Schneider could prove a handy acquisition. Gardiner is a lurking dud but all he needs to add to his game to be successful is defensive pressure. He just got the arse from one club, he might figure out that this is his last chance and pull his finger out - off-season surgery may be necessary. The Saints were after Pettifer. Funny that they see a bludging jib like Gardiner as a viable alternative.

Goddard has played some good games at #3 forward.

Armitage and maybe Jones might be able to play the crumbing forward role. And the former could be a wildcard for midfield duties.


Ruck:

The Saints have been operating with no rucks for some years now. King was coddled through 07 by Geelong and punished at the same time. It worked a treat and he was a fresh force in the GF for them. It remains to be seen whether he can carry the #1 ruck role for a season. You'd think not. But if he can tag-team with Rix their combination is the best it has been for some time. Best to coddle the prematurely aged King for much of the season IMO with a view to having him fresh for a likely finals campaign.


Summary:

I reckon the Saints can cobble a useful defence augmented by good attacking skills from players like S. Fisher and Gram. Their forward line looks good and their rucks are at best adequate (an improvement on hopelessly inadequate). But the midfield is where the southerners will be looking for improvement. Their 2008 prospects rely largely on this unknown. The pre-season games will give us a better guide to their line-up.

Finals likely if they can get on the park, GF some possibility.

 

[Disco08]

Very nice JD. What chance Armitage gets a look in the midfield?

 

[Mr Brightside]

Thanks Jack.......I have a feel they could be the ones

 

[Dyer'ere]

I dunno, Duckman. He reminds me of Luke Ball a bit the way he hits the packs but you wouldn't reckon they'd make the same mistake twice and throw him in the midfield full time. Anyways I don't reckon he's as precocious as Ball. My guess is that they'll use him as a close crumbing forward if he's ready for AFL.

I had a bit of a fancy for the Saints at odds meself, CC but truth is I reckon Geelong are value at $3.20 not that I'd take it now. You wait for them to lose a couple during the year and for an impostor to put up a bit of dodgy form. St Kilda are my quinella/trifecta chance at this stage. No flash odds though.

I'll start a couple of the other teams while Phantom's away. Some of the changes in structure that are inevitable this year, to teams like Carlton and West Coast, are pretty interesting and I can't help myself but see how they might form up.

 

[Scoop]

Very nice JD. What chance Armitage gets a look in the midfield?

Armitage is struggling ATM. Neither looks nor trains like a AFL footballer at the minute. There are some major concerns regarding this lad.

I floated that I liked St Kilda after the trade and draft period. Have addressed some holes and year two of the Ross Lyon era will be more his style then his predecessor. Lyon has had a impact across the club. And most importantly they have modified the training programs, which IMO was one of the major problems. They suffered more soft tissues injuries then anyone.

Saints, Lions and maybe the Dogs to go in to the 8. Crows, Kangas (not sure about that one) and one other to go out, maybe Swans.

 

[Tigers of Old]

Slide set to continue for mine. Only need an injury or two and they are in massive trouble.
Bottom 6.

 

[Hayfever]

Slide set to continue for mine. Only need an injury or two and they are in massive trouble.
Bottom 6.

Hope you are right ToO. In recent years they have had our measure. At end of 2007 we got close........ not sure if we improved, they dropped off, or a bit of both.

I'm also not happy to see the big gorilla back at full forward for them. He terrifies our backline >

 

[Rosy]

Re: 2008 - Preseason Preview - 9th of 16 - St Kilda

Finals likely if they can get on the park, GF some possibility.

Great summary thanks Dyer but I really hope your prediction above doesn't eventuate. :hihi

 

[Dyer'ere]

Slide set to continue for mine. Only need an injury or two and they are in massive trouble.
Bottom 6.

Maguire is already out for the early season. If say, King gets injured, Ball doesn't come up from the groin, Gehrig is over the hill and veterans like Hudghton and Harvey have left their retirement one year too late, they're in strife. So as you say, Oldster, a slide is not far off.

But they were slaughtered with injury in 07 and still finished ninth. And of course, Hayes was coming off that knee (therefore a non-event).

Geelong was able to carry Chapman's injury without much difficulty last year but that was about all the trouble they had (okay, the big backman for the GF). Successful years for any side are injury free years.

That said I've believed for some years that St Kilda's best player is Lenny Hayes. And he is a big addition to their 08 line-up. The other thing I meant to mention is that other than Geelong there will probably be at most one good side in 08. Very probably none. Second may be nearer to sixteenth in ability (okay, twelfth) than to first.

 

[Dyer'ere]

Re: 2008 - Preseason Preview - 9th of 16 - St Kilda

Great summary thanks Dyer but I really hope your prediction above doesn't eventuate. :hihi

I don't hate em nearly as much as say Essendon, Rosy. And let us not speak of the vermin from North Carlton. 2

 

[Leysy Days]

strugglers for leysy as well,

may sneak into the bottom half of the 8 if they get a cosy injury run.

if not 10-14

 

[Tigers of Old]

Maguire is already out for the early season. If say, King gets injured, Ball doesn't come up from the groin, Gehrig is over the hill and veterans like Hudghton and Harvey have left their retirement one year too late, they're in strife. So as you say, Oldster, a slide is not far off.

But they were slaughtered with injury in 07 and still finished ninth. And of course, Hayes was coming off that knee (therefore a non-event).

Hayes won't be the saviour Jack. Very good player but their problems run much deeper than Lenny getting back near his best.

They are beginning to bear an uncanny resemblance to the Richmond sides of 2001/2.
Sure they have a sprinkling of genuine stars but those guns(Riewoldt, Hayes, Dal Santo) will require the help of a full and health list for their team to be competitive in '08.
Outside the top 8 or so the talent drops away considerably.

They are an extremely overrated team by the media and their premiership window is well closed for now at least. They will be spending time in the half of the ladder history shows they are used to.

Lyon IMO has clearly not yet recognised that they need to rebuild.
The resurrection of Gehrig, recruitment of King, C Gardiner and Schneider as well as asking Harvey to go around yet again smack of desperation. Any team that has guys like Rix, Fiora, Milne & M.Gardiner still on their list is going to struggle. Also two of their most crucial and toughest players during their period of success in Hammil and Maguire(?) are now distant memories..

Lyon still thinks they are a show for the big one and that is well deluded IMO. Frighteningly so if I was an Aints fan.

I actually think we'll beat them this year and quite possibly finish higher on the ladder.

 

[Dyer'ere]

I don't wildly disagree with you ToO. At least as far as where they're headed. They've drafted poorly recently at the ND, not to mention squandered more and better draft choices than Richmond on acid, and their future looks grim. But I think you've jumped the gun by a year or so.

We'll see.

The other thing is that unless a team comes out of the pack (only one springs to mind) then the second team this year will be daylight. And the third. If Geelong get it together it's fave out for the flag and a team that might not even be a genuine top three can finish second. A bit like 2007, eh?

 

[mb64]

StKilda's window is fast closing.Should finish top 6 this year