2008 - Preseason Preview - 16th of 16 - Richmond

[pahoffm]

The Tiges.

Coincidentally, we begin with, personally, the hardest one.
All would have been very disappointed with the Tigers' position after the first few rounds. Basically the season was over almost before it had begun.

Although both 2005 & 2006 had promise, the fact was that the Tiger list was largely split between a group of twilight players and juniors who weren't quite ready. The list of AFL hardened players was thin to begin with, then with the progressive losses of Knobel, Hall, Simmonds, Coughlan, adding to holes in key positions in the field, then the Gaspar blow up ...., well, by 6 rounds in it was all over.

The positives were:
1. That opportunity brought forward the development of some junior players such as Pattison, Thursfield, McGuane, Edwards, Foley & King.
2. That there was only one major blow out for the season, being the early Geelong game, where the team seemed obviously affected by the Gaspar crisis, compared to 3 blow outs the year before. (Geelong did win the GF by a record margin.)
3. The draft picks that comes as a reward for performing poorly all season.

For 2008, stability seems to be the key with Wallace, Royal, King, McRae & Rawlings remaining, with Collins at Coburg the only departure.

The list for 2008 is:

Fig.1, The List
Matthew Richardson	195	105	33
Kane Johnson	187	86	30
Nathan Brown	182	83	30
Troy Simmonds	196	99	29
Joel Bowden	188	91	29
Greg Tivendale	185	85	28
Shane Tuck	189	90	26
Kayne Pettifer	183	83	26
Mark Coughlan	186	85	25
Chris Hyde	186	83	25
Chris Newman	182	84	25
Kelvin Moore	189	86	24
Jordan McMahon	185	78	24	new
Jake King	174	74	24
Graham Polak	194	93	23
Tristan Cartledge	199	93	22	new	rookie
Adam Pattison	197	98	22
Jay Schulz	193	95	22
Jarrod Silvester	191	89	22	new	rookie
Mitch Morton	185	79	22	new
Andrew Raines	184	81	22
Nathan Foley	177	80	22
Cleve Hughes	193	84	21
Will Thursfield	191	83	21
Luke McGuane	190	84	21
Daniel Jackson	187	90	21
Dean Polo	186	80	21
Danny Meyer	183	76	21
Cameron Howat	182	77	21		rookie
Richard Tambling	179	78	21
Matthew White	179	78	21
Angus Graham	200	93	20
Brett Deledio	188	89	20
Jarrad Oakley-Nicholls	188	76	20
Travis Casserly	186	75	20
Jack Riewoldt	192	85	19
Andrew Collins	184	71	19
Daniel Connors	183	79	19
Clayton Collard	182	90	19	new	rookie
Shane Edwards	180	69	19
Dean Putt	202	90	18	new
David Gourdis	193	88	18	new
Alex Rance	192	87	18	new
Trent Cotchin	184	81	17	new

44 players on the list with 9 new players. Again, thanks to the AFL's assistance, the Tiges have 4 rookies.
The 25yo+ have reduced from 13 to 11 of the 44. The twilight zone has reduced from 7 to 6. Add to this that the 21yos or less have dropped from 24 to 22.
This means that there are a "nett" 4 more players have come into the 22-24yo bracket. More importantly, there are 9 x 21yos in the current list that enter the 22-24yo bracket in 2009, for a "nett" gain of 6.
This means that over the next 2 years, 10-15 of our boys are going to mature into hardened AFL players. Improvement comes from that.

The spread of players, although this may not appear in its entirety on your screen, unless you have a very wide one, is as follows:

Fig.2, The Spread
	<180	180-184	185-189	190-194	195-199	200+
28+
		Brown F	Johnson M		Richardson F
			J.Bowden D		Simmonds RF
25-27			Tivendale M
		Pettifer F	Tuck M
		Newman D	Coughlan M
			Hyde M
22-24
	King D	Raines D	McMahon D	Polak D	Pattison RF
	Foley M	Howat M	Moore D	Schulz F	Cartledge R
				Silvester D
18-21
	Tambling M	Meyer F	Jackson F	Thursfield D		Graham R
	White D	Collard F	Morton F	McGuane D		Putt RF
		Connors U	Polo M	Hughes F
		Collins M	Deledio M	Riewoldt F
		Edwards M	Casserley D	Rance D
		Cotchin M	Oakley-Nicholls D	Gourdis U

The spread is improving with a solid bunch of juniors coming up in nearly all groups. The only junior group that needs attention is the 195-199cm group, and I believe that will be a focus come the end of 2008.
Until depth builds within the 22-26yo brackets in players 190cm+, the Tigers' will still be relying on declining core of twilighters or juniors to fill their key positions.
It's what makes Richmond so fragile.

The positional coverage is as follows:

Fig.3 - Positional Depth
B:	White 179 21 D	Thursfield 191 21 D	Silvester 191 22 D
	Collard 182 19 F	Gourdis 193 18 U	McGuane 190 21 D
HB:	J.Bowden 188 30 D	Polak 194 23 D	Newman 182 25 D
	McMahon 185 24 D	Rance 192 18 D	Raines 182 22 D
	Moore 189 24 D
	Casserley 186 20 D
C:	Tivendale 185 28 W	Coughlan 186 25 M	Howat 182 22 W
	Hyde 186 25 W	Cotchin 184 17 M	Collins 184 19 M
	Polo 186 20 M		Edwards 180 19 M
	Oakley-Nicholls 188 20 W
HF:	Morton 185 21 F	Richardson 195 33 F	Pettifer 182 26 F
	Deledio 188 20 M	Hughes 193 21 F	Meyer 184 21 F
			Connors 183 19 U
F:	Pattison 198 22 RF	Schulz 193 22 U	Brown 182 30 F
	Putt 202 18 RF	Riewoldt 192 19 F
R:	Simmonds 196 29 RF	Johnson 187 30 M	King 174 24 D
	Cartledge 199 22 R	Tuck 188 26 M	Foley 177 22 M
	Graham 200 20 R	Jackson 187 21 M	Tambling 179 21 M

It clearly shows the lack of experience in our key positions, but this is no different to the 2007 scenario. FB is pinned on juniors. Polak is listed at CHB but he may play forward, so who covers CHB? An 18yo? Who stands up next to Richo as a key forward? Who stands up in the ruck along with Simmonds?
These are the challenges of 2008 for the Tiges.

In conclusion, there are no shortcuts for 2008.
The Tigers' season will largely depend on 2 factors;
1. how well it can hold its core group of experienced players together, and
2. how well it can progress its junior & development players.
Miracles may happen once or twice in a season, but they don't happen every week. There will be marginal improvement for the Tiges in 2008, but how that translates into extra wins may seem just as marginal. For my mind, I'd bank on 2009 as the season for more significant improvement.

I'd like to be more optimistic about our end of year result, but I reckon Tiger fans, in 2008, will get more enjoyment in seeing our junior boys become men.

 

[Six Pack]

Could you go through that again, thanks?

 

[Dyer'ere]

This team is a bit of a wildcard for 08. I want to have a look at some preseason form before I make a call on them.

Spooner for 07 but with some talented youth coming through. Players like Thursfield and Foley have outstanding will to win. That's something that's been sadly lacking at the Tigers for years. King might be something and Edwards does some freakish things. But each of these players is very light, a problem across the group.

That's what made targeting McMahon and Morton so puzzling - skinny. And Polak the year before - he's 90 odd kilos but plays like he's 70 odd.

Still, watching the strides that Croad has made in the last season or so (massive improvement one on one) gives me some hope for Polak.

BTW it wont surprise me at all if Angus Graham is a BIG improver in 08.

I expect improvement but the preseason will give us a better idea how much.

 

[Tigers of Old]

I'd like to be more optimistic about our end of year result, but I reckon Tiger fans, in 2008, will get more enjoyment in seeing our junior boys become men.

Hard not to disagree with this.
Over 3/4s of our list are 24 and under. Whilst that may or may not bode well for the future, I expect us to struggle for another year.
However on a positive note we are beginning to see the results of a massive upheaval to the list over the past three years.
You can really see it now when you go through the team.

I am thrilled with the departures of Krakouer, Knobel, Hall, Gaspar etc. & whilst a couple remain there are fewer serial disappointments on the list than we've seen for some time. The duds are being pruned.

I don't have great expectations for '08 because unfortunately whilst we are young and potentially exciting we are also light, skinny and the majority of our senior players aren't tough enough.
Low 1%s and poor tackle counts can expect to continue under this coaching administration.
No team will fear us but we'll play some exciting and fast footy which will ad some relief.

I am looking forward to seeing the likes of Deledio, Foley, Jackson, Tambling, Thursfield, Casserly, Polo & Connors take great strides this year. Hopefully they can and we can and at least be competitive but I can't see finals (again ).

Bottom 6 for mine but the signs will be good by years end.

 

[TOT70]

Well done, Phantom. You have successfully identified what I think is going to be the biggest factor for the Tigers in 2008- the gradual maturing of the list.

There are 8 players from the 2004 draft: Deledio, Tambling, Meyer, Pattison, Polo, McGuane, Thursfield and now Morton. All of this group will be 21 or 22 during the 08 season. Raines and Jackson are both underage players from the previous draft and of the same age. Foley is slightly older, as are King and Polak but all three are just entering their prime years.

Several of the baker's dozen noted above are already automatic selections (albeit in the reigning wooden-spooner) and most of the others are at least semi-regular senior footballers, Danny Meyer being the only exception, not having appeared in senior company for a while now.

Additionally, Schulz, Moore, Howat, Sylvester and Cartledge are all at the "last chance cafe" with one final chance to secure a long-term career for themselves (they are a year older then most of the group above after all). Hughes, Graham, White and Casserly are the same age as the younger members of the class of 2004, elevating them into this core group of maturing youngsters who will come through in 08 and 09.

The fortunes of the club now hang on this quite large group. It represents the middle half of the list. The question is: "Can they mature over the next 30 or so games into a solid core group of mature senior players?"

If they can then the next successful era of the club will begin. If they can't, then a new rebuild will need to be undertaken, probably at the end of 09.

Season 08 will tell us a good deal about the long-term future of Raines, Jackson, Meyer, Pattison, Polo, McGuane, Schulz, Moore and others. I don't think that the old excuses of the last few years of too many youngsters on the list and a scarcity of players in their prime applies any longer. We have a very large group of players who are now poised to deliver or they are in danger of being judged as having failed.

 

[mb64]

Same old,same old.15th or 16th.

 

[Dyer'ere]

At the start of 2006 I know for a fact that a few of the trainers at North backed Boomer Harvey for the Brownlow during the pre-season. He was maaaasssive. Running through brick walls. Going gangbusters. They hadn't said any of this the year before.

And of course he did bugger all. Bludged around the back pocket pretending to be an on-baller. Got shut down when it mattered. Played his best footy against the weak sides.

But 2007 was a very different kettle of fish. The bloke went ape. And it reminded me of a footy rule that I'd misplaced. It takes a year longer than you think.

I had a feeling that Richmond would take a few strides in 2007. What with Lids and Bling emerging and likely improvement from another few youngsters. I got that wrong.

But I think it might be a case of it takes a year longer than you think.


Backline

Terry has finally done what any coach does when he looks to reinvent a side- find players to move a lot of leather off half back. He's tried three consecutive years with Graham, P.Bo and then Polak playing LMID. But without success. Just more chip and stall.

At last McMuffin and Jake King are giving him the dice rolling and rebound to get the ball up the other end from time to time.

Will Thursfield is in his pivotal second year back from ACL. Not going significantly better than last year IMO and appears to have lost a yard of leap. He's not in top nick as I write this. Light but can play on bigger opponents. His rebound game has been suppressed by the need to play close. Not sure of his injury status but Will's a real fighter who can play a key slot better than all but one or two defenders of his size. Form not great ATM.

Luke McGuane is light. He's a fighter but as recently as 07 he was still letting the ball get behind him with hilarious regularity. This is unforgivable. He's cut right down on this in 08. And is giving Thursty a chop as we phase Joel out of the key slot. I don't reckon he's doing too badly given the preseason.

What I like about him is that he has a genuine line-breaking game. Improver? Dunno.

What I do know is that if that's your #1 and #2 back you are massively underweight and ordinary players like Will Minson will school you in the ways of violence in a final. And Brian Lake will take match winning marks against you.

Kelvin Moore is a small IMO. But he can pinch hit. So he gives flexibility to the new Terry's Triangle. The one we've had in place all year down back. (A triangle down back? Yikes!) Any one of Thursfield, McGuane or Moore can take a small or a tall. And even though they are underweight one out, they are tolerable as a trio.

They need help. And they get it from two sources.

The old-fashioned solution would be to drop a ruckman back into the hole. Or even better a 60s ruck rover (these are very mobile talls). So we drop our mobile tall, Matthew Richardson into the hole. And with Thursty or McGuane behind the forward and Richo in front, well, not many grabs will be taken.

Jay Schulz plays a new position. Pagan invented it for Carey when he couldn't mark over his head any more and then got Fatnall (who could never do much) playing it. It's called Centre Half Whatever. Jay Schulz plays most of the game floating between CHB (usual) and CHF (occasional). It's a role he's ideally suited to. CHB brings him into the game and he can kick a goal. Or send it in. And he's flexible too. He did well on Cyril Smith on the weekend when he got the matchup. And has done well on other smalls.

So what's the weakness in this tall structure?

Richo gets lost. See Brian Lake's mark. When he learns to play 60s ruck rover it will be pretty bloody tough for opposition talls to take a mark in danger country. But for now he's mainly an attacking weapon. And not all of the talls are of the quality we might like. Might be a few changes over the next coupla years. (And FWIW I don't thnk McGuane will necessarily the one to get the axe.)

This backline is pretty much structured for a tall flexible zone defence. Surprise. Flexibility is Terry's idol. But it needs mops and counter attack. Avanti King and McMuffin. King's like a little football vacuuming droid. And McMuffin and the Sarge charge off the back line of the square at the CBs to give us a real chance at some cheap goals.

Lids is rolling through half back and knocking eyes out with his genius kicking.

I like the structure of this backline. It's not complete. It's got some holes but it is at last a platform.

 

[feisty tige]

Same old,same old.15th or 16th.

....



although....

 

[pahoffm]

In consideration of our expectations, maybe 6.5 was quite reasonable.