2008 - Preseason Preview - 14th of 16 - Melbourne

[pahoffm]

Hi Guys,

Apologies, it's been a heck of a month with local one day games and a local cricket club where cultural change has meant the facilitation of younger boys taking the spots presumed granted by twilight players. See, it happens in all sports at all levels.

Now the Dees.

Melbourne
This year it becomes a matter of who's left at Melbourne. The coach left, so did his key assistant, the CEO, the football manager, even the bootstudder.
Even the turnover of players, 11 in a season, is a big turnover and is Craig Cameron's goodbye gift to Demon fans.
Dean Bailey enters with a new team including Chris Connolly, Josh Mahoney, Saun Wellman & Paul Williams.

Fig.1, The List
David Neitz	191	100	33
Ben Holland	197	97	31
Jeff White	195	97	31
James McDonald	180	75	31
Adem Yze	187	85	30
Russell Robertson	187	91	29
Cameron Bruce	190	85	28
Matthew Whelan	180	84	28
Nathan Carroll	191	91	27
Paul Wheatley	189	87	27
Brad Green	184	83	27
Aaron Davey	177	72	25
Paul Johnson	199	103	24
Mark Jamar	198	100	24
Brad Miller	194	96	24
Matthew Warnock	192	93	24
Brent Moloney	182	88	24
Jared Rivers	192	90	23
Daniel Bell	186	92	23
John Meesen	200	97	22	new
Chris Johnson	188	87	22
Colin Sylvia	186	87	22
Brock McLean	184	88	22
Stefan Martin	198	97	21	new
Michael Newton	193	91	21
Lynden Dunn	192	92	21
Matthew Bate	192	90	21
Simon Buckley	190	87	21
Shane Valenti	176	80	21	new rookie
Colin Garland	191	85	20
Jace Bode	183	82	20
Clint Bartram	181	78	20
Nathan Jones	180	81	20
Trent Zomer	196	94	19	new rookie
James Frawley	193	88	19
Jack Grimes	187	81	19	new
Ricky Petterd	185	81	19
Isaac Weetra	184	83	19
Austin Wonaeamirri	176	76	19	new rookie
Jake Spencer	203	98	18	new rookie
Cale Morton	192	79	18	new
Tom McNamara	190	84	18	new
Kyle Cheney	184	85	18	new
Addam Maric	178	77	18	new

The List, fig.1, indicates that Melbourne has used their full entitlement of 44 players, of which 11 are new, and of which 4 rookies.
8 of the 44 are twilighters, a reduction, 15 of the 44 are in their prime, and 21 off the 44 (near 50%) are 21yo or younger
22 of the 44 players are 190cm or taller. Only 14 players are below 185cm. Melbourne will again struggle to run out a season.

Fig.2 - The Spread
	<180	180-184	185-189	190-194	195-199	200+
28+		McDonald M	Yze M	Neitz F	White R
		Whelan D	Robertson F		Holland F
25-27	Davey F	Green F	Wheatley D	Bruce M
				Carroll D
22-24		Moloney M	Bell D	Miller F	Jamar R	Meeson R
		McLean M	C.Johnson D	Warnock D	P.Johnson R
			Sylvia M	Rivers D
18-21	Valenti F	Bode M	Petterd D	Newton F	Martin R	Spencer R
	Jones M	Bartram M	Grimes M	Dunn F	Zomer D
	Wonaeamirri D	Weetra U		Bate F
	Maric F	Cheney D		Buckley M
				Garland F
				Frawley D
				Morton U
				McNamara D

The Spread, fig.2, begins to show the long term srategy of Melbourne. They've built for 3 to 4 years time.
You can see that layer of twilighters disappearing to be replaced by a group now between 22 to 24yo.
The interesting experiment is their loading up of mobile kpps between 18 to 21yo. They do like investing well at Melbourne.

Fig.3 - Positional Depth
B:	Whelan 180 28 D	Carroll 191 27 D	Warnock 192 24 D
	Wonaeamirri 176 19 D	Frawley 193 19 D	McNamara 190 18 D
		Zomer 196 19 D
HB:	Wheatley 189 27 D	Rivers 192 23 D	Bell 186 21 D
	C.Johnson 189 21 D	Bate 192 21 F	Petterd 185 19 D
		Morton 192 18 U	Cheney 184 18 D
C:	Yze 187 30 M	McLean 184 21 M	Moloney 181 24 M
	Bruce 190 28 M	Bode 183 20 M
	Buckley 190 21 M
HF:	Robertson 187 29 F	Miller 194 24 F	Green 184 27 F
		Dunn 192 21 F	Weetra 184 19 U
F:	Holland 198 31 F	Neitz 191 33 F	Davey 177 25 F
	P.Johnson 199 24 F	Newton 193 21 F	Valenti 176 21 F
		Garland 191 20 F	Maric 178 18 F
R:	White 195 31 R	Sylvia 186 21 M	McDonald 180 31 M
	Jamar 198 24 R	Bartram 181 20 M	Jones 179 19 M
	Meeson 200 22 R	Grimes 187 19 M
	Martin 198 21 R
	Spencer 203 18 R

Positional Strength, fig.3, shows the direction the Dees are taking. They've filled their positions well but lack for current maturity.
As I said last year, Melbourne have some very good juniors coming up to fill their key positions in the future.

Conclusion:
At Melbourne they've given up on the present and banking on their future. Indications are that in 3 to 4 years it will be a bright one.
For this year though, the Dees again lack enough runners & experience to run out a full season. But they won't do as poorly as one might expect.

A bit of a rush job. Hope it's ok.

 

[CHF]

Hello Phantom,

Been a time since I last visited or offered comment but I have been keeping an eye on the different boards during the summer from over here in Europe to keep in touch with what ever is happening. saw your preview and thought that I might add a little bit.

Been away overseas for a while now and it is difficult to get a feel for the way my club is really going. I get input from the media, I get to see most of the games on reply with Sky and I follow the forums but it is not like being in the deck at the games.

Last season for the Dees was a complete injury washout. One of the hardest hit, if not THE hardest hit club in the season. Not only hard hit by injury but we also found ourselves badly underprepared for the depth of injury to the senior players on our list. I was confident of a good solid finals position last season. That we give some indication of my ability to p-redict the season. I thought we had some good depths as well... Not to be.

I believe that the changes in the footy department are for the good. An interesting selection as coach and if has some success it will vindicate the selection process we went through. to date he has put together a good solid team of assistants and with the addition of Connelly as Football manager we have a good mix of experience and imagination on the footy department. I will be interested to see how we measure up against the likes of carlton and essendon in the way we are coached this season. Think back a few years to when the Tigers appointed Wallet. The same season the Bulldogs and the Hawks appointed new coaches. with 20/20 hind sight what would the Tigers have done. I am expecting similar hindsight in a few years time looking at the development and results of these three clubs.

With the list development over the off season, from what I can see we havwe done pretty well. a lot of the sub-standard and borderline players have been cut and the additions to the list from the draft and trading have re-invigorated the list and from reports I have read the team is looking a lot fresher at training.

The upside of the injuries we had last season was that a number of the younger players got some games under their belt and now have a very clear understanding of what is expected of them. One interesting aspect of the list is from a draft 2 or 3 years ago when we took the three youngest players in the draft, Bate Dunn and Newton. It was a statement at the time because we knew that all t6hree would require a lot more time to develop than some of the players we could of taken. Now, down the track i think we will be starting to see this strategy bear some fruit. All three now have some significant games under their belt. Newton is the one that has the least games but he has shown a bit as a forward. good hands, good kick and can take a pack mark. will be interesting to see how he goes this season.

Given a lighter load of injuries this season I would expect us to be pushing into the finals on the back of consistent performances from the more experienced players and some cameos from some of the emerging younger players.

Forwards:
in transistion at the moment. Was very unsettled last season but some of the younger players were given a chance. by the end of this season I would expect that our forward line will bear very little resembalence to the one we had playing well at the end of the 06 season. Neitz and Robbo could well be looking at the future a few times this season. with the likes of Newton, Dunn and Martin making something of an impact. I also expect to see a lot more of our resting ruckman in the forward line at times. Davey could be spending more time in the midfield or HF line and a couple of the kids might find a place in a pocket.

Midfield:
This will be a strength for the team. this team within a team has developed well over the last couple of years. This season we will get Moloney back from long term injury that ruled hiw out for all of last season. The same goes for the kid, bartram who lost all of last season after playing in all of our matches in hie debut season as a a tagger. Sylvia has managed to get througha complete pre-season for the first time so he should finally start to show something of his dreaded potential. Mclean was patchy last year after promising so much. A lot of that can be put down to injury so I think he will be back to showing some form. The lost of Johnstone will be interesting to see as the season progresses. I am one that thinks the team and the indivual will both benifit from the parting. I think Travis will be a better player away from the dees and in a team structure that brisbane run and I think the team will find some different options to Johnstone this season. Look for the bloodnut, bate running in the centre a bit this season. look for Jones to shine.

Backs.
Expect a big improvement this season. Rivers coming back will be a big plus as he reads the play so very well. We also suffered from not have Whelan back there last season. He is one of those players that just gets things done when we has to. Holland will fill matchup holes back there during the season and Frawley is developing well. Depending on the pressure applied by the mids and the ability of the backs to work as a team I expect to see the defence to hold up well. Miller wil get a run in defence a lot in the early part of the season to see how he goes.

Of the rest I expect to see a lot of rotating of our younger talls in ruck behind White. I would also earmark a couple of the new kids to shine in one or two games during the season. 6 or 7 of the youngest are in their first season in the system but all the others are atleast into their 2nd or 3rd season. A few of our 21yo players are into their 4/5th preseason.

Will be good to get back to the footy. Dees to rest in the lower reaches of the 8 come finals time.

Want my views of the Tigers?

I have few doubts about the teams ability to run out the season.

 

[pahoffm]

Much of what you say I agree with, CHF, but I also have concerns about the Dees needing so many long term injuries to come good to make the finals.
Usually players need some regular time on the field to fully recover from long term injury.
Bartram, Jamar, McLean, Moloney, Neitz, Petterd, Rivers, Robertson, Whelan, all spent considerable time off the field in 2007. It would be asking alot to expect them all to come good for a full 2008.
2 to 3 years down the track looks a better proposition, especially with those younger boys coming on.

Regardless, the Dees look to have a bright future, sorry, also, if they can keep the off-field disturbances to a minimum.

 

[CHF]

always a whole lot of variables in a season Phantom. Injuries, off field disruptions..... wives and girlfriends....even cricket clubs....

Some will make it back to full fitness this season and some will not. on balance, if we do not get kicked to death by a wave of new injuries I believe that we will be in much better shape than last year.

A bit more experience under the belts of the younger kids, some of the senior players running into a bit of form and a few of the long term injury guys coming back will all give us a bit more than last season.

Good luck to the Tigers this season, If I get a bit of time I will have a crak at a preview of the Tigers.

 

[pahoffm]

That'd be good. I always enjoy reading the perspectives of outsiders.

 

[mb64]

Dees are nearly as bad as us.15th or 16th.

 

[Dyer'ere]

Melbourne has not won a game as at round seven of 08.

That's not terribly surprising. It's not about morale. Or emotional experiences of any kind. Or tactics. Or attitude. It's a total lack of talented playing personnel.

The reason for this is simple. Melbourne is the worst recruiting club in the AFL. Dadoro laughs about them. The Bummers board toasts them every week.


Mids

There are injury concerns to the two or three blokes who can play. I'm thinking chiefly of Cameron Bruce. Maybe he can come back. Maybe he's gone. Probably gone.

McLean is a talented player. But the sorts of injuries he gets are a sentence handed down to fat guys who don't work hard enough. I reckon Brock has one more preseason to rectify this. If that.

Junior McDonald has been punching above his weight for years. I'd love to see him come back for this year and next but he's hopelessly outnumbered and not getting any younger.

However if this trio gets it together the Dees will win some football games. It's just that if you haven't done anything by round seven you're not likely to.

Yze is gone. Moloney was always a hack and is now a confirmed crock and crucially is an outside player and should never have been targeted.

Sylvia. Injury has prevented us from concluding that he's just not much good. I say "us" because it may have stopped you. I think he's a talentless hack. A poor man's Andrew Walker.

Nathan Jones can get a kick. That's a shame for Melbourne. Better for them if the other side gets it. Cut out the middle man sort of thing. It's a salary you save.

Lynden Dunn has had a couple of goes at defensive mid duties. It's probably his go but he's not setting the world on fire ATM. One thing is for sure- he aint ready yet.

Matthew Bate is a bit like Sylvia except without the raps and with a bit more consistency. And he's been injured. Probably should do a year or so at HBF. Not ready.

It's a motley crew. Half fit if that. Sloppy. No defensive mid. But nothing is surprising. It's like nobody's thought about it.

 

[feisty tige]

Dees are nearly as bad as us.15th or 16th.

Remind me to ask you for a tip on how we will go next year...

 

[pahoffm]

Maybe they will do very poorly.