2008 - Preseason Preview - 12th of 16 - Essendon

[pahoffm]

Seem to be getting through these now. No doubt, necessity the mother of invention.

Essendon
Well, haven't things changed at Essendon? A new coach in ex-Tiger Matty Knights with a new team not as strong with a big turnover.
Gone is Sheedy, gone is Hirdy, and seemingly gone is the Bombers reputation as a top team.
How will Bomber supporter cope with the transition of their team? Will they become as feral as Tiger supporters?
Knights is joined by another ex-Tiger Ash Prescott, Scott Camporeale, and long time Bombers Gary O'Donnell and John Quinn.

Fig.1 - The List
Dustin Fletcher	198	100	33
Malcolm Michael	190	99	31
Matthew Lloyd	192	93	30
Scott Lucas	192	96	30
Jason Johnson	180	85	30
Damien Peverill	185	83	28
David Hille	201	109	27
Mark McVeigh	184	85	27
Adam Ramanauskas	184	84	27
Nathan Lovett-Murray	190	87	25
Adam McPhee	190	90	25
Andrew Welsh	188	87	25
Andrew Lovett	183	75	25
Alwyn Davey	173	70	24
Jason Laycock	201	105	23
Courtney Johns	192	100	23
Jarrod Atkinson	192	88	23	new rookie
Jobe Watson	190	89	23
Jason Winderlich	188	84	23
Danny Chartres	194	95	22	rookie
Jay Nash	188	86	22
Henry Slattery	185	85	22
Ricky Dyson	182	82	22
Brent Stanton	182	83	22
Andrew Lee	196	93	21
Angus Monfries	184	78	21
Sam Lonergan	182	82	21
Paddy Ryder	197	90	20
Jay Neagle	191	98	20
Heath Hocking	187	87	20
Courtenay Dempsey	186	75	20
Tom Hislop	185	85	20
Bachar Houli	180	85	20
Scott Gumbleton	197	90	19
Cale Hooker	196	88	19	new
Dean *smile*	190	90	19	rookie
John Williams	188	83	19	new
Kyle Reimers	182	77	19
Rhys Magin	180	73	19	new rookie
Leroy Jetta	178	74	19
Tom Bellchambers	201	100	18	new
Darcy Daniher	191	88	18	new
Tayte Pears	191	90	18	new
David Myers	190	86	18	new

The List, fig.1, shows the usual 44 but with only 8 new faces, a relatively low number, and 4 rookies.
22 of the 44, 50% of the list, is 190cm or more. This is a big number and immediately raises questions about the Bombers pace over a full season.
5 players of 30yo or more is also a big number as is 20 players being 21yo or less.
Also, congratulations to Adam Ramanauskas on regaining his place on the senior list.

Fig.2 - The Spread
	<180	180-184	185-189	190-194	195-199	200+
28+		J.Johnson M		Lucas F	Fletcher D
				Michael D
				Lloyd F
25-27		Peverill M	McPhee D			Hille R
		Ramanauskas M	Lovett-Murray D
		McVeigh D	Welsh D
		Lovett F
22-24	Davey F	Slattery D	Winderlich M	Johns F		Laycock R
		Dyson M	Nash D	Watson M
		Stanton M		Atkinson D
				Watson M
				Chartres D
18-21	Jetta M	Monfries M	Nash D	*smile* F	Lee D	Bellchambers R
		Lonergan M	Neagle F	Daniher F	Ryder R
		Dempsey M	Hocking M	Pears D	Gumbleton F
		Hislop M	Williams M	Myers D	Hooker F
		Houli F
		Riemers F
		Magin M

The Spread, fig.2, indicates a much better picture for the Bombers than first thought. Groups up to 190cm look fairly good with just a few speedy rovers missing and the groups between 190-199 look a bit unsettled but that'd be due to some big list changes.
That looks a good group of 22-23yo mobile kpps coming on.
And Merv Keane has done a very good job recruiting some junior tall timber to meet the Bombers' needs. Unfortunately, for them, that's 5 years away.
As per last year they still lack for speedy rovers but it is better than last year's list.

Fig.3 - Positional Depth
B:	Slattery 183 22 D	Michael 190 31 D	McPhee 189 25 D
		Fletcher 199 33 D	Lovett-Murray 189 25 D
		Chartres 194 20 D	Pears 191 18 D
HB:	Welsh 188 25 D	Ryder 197 20 R	McVeigh 184 27 D
	Nash 187 22 D	Atkinson 192 23 D
	Myers 190 18 D	Lee 195 21 D
C:	Peverill 183 28 M	Dyson 183 22 M	Ramanauskis 183 27 M
	Winderlich 188 23 M	Stanton 182 22 M	Dempsey 184 20 M
	Williams 188 19 M	Hislop 184 20 M
HF:	Daniher 191 18 F	Lucas 192 30 F	Lovett 182 25 F
		Gumbleton 197 19 F	Houli 181 20 F
		*smile* 193 19 F	Riemers 184 19 F
F:	Hille 202 27 R	Lloyd 195 30 F	Davey 178 24 F
	Hooker 196 19 F	Johns 194 23 F
		Neagle 189 20 F
R:	Laycock 200 23 R	J.Johnson 181 30 M	Monfries 181 21 M
	Bellchambers 201 18 R	Watson 191 23 M	Lonergan 182 20 M
		Hocking 185 20 M	Jetta 177 19 M

Positional Depth, fig.3, shows that they've covered most positions fairly well.
The key weaknesses of the Bombers seem to be a lack of speedy rovers in the midfield and smaller defensive flankers to cover opposition forward flankers.
This tells me that if you put pacy smalls on the ball and on the forward flanks then the Bombers can't cover you.

Conclusion
With all of this in mind, there actually may be some marginal improvement for the Bombers in 2008.
For my mind, Bomber fans should take confidence in the recent list changes, but the team is still someway off the pack.

 

[Tigers of Old]

Geez that's a *smile* list.

Wooden spooners.

 

[pahoffm]

Geez that's a *smile* list.

Wooden spooners.

Hope not!

Wouldn't want the Bombers to have both Ryder & Natanui.

 

[Tigers of Old]

Hope not!

Wouldn't want the Bombers to have both Ryder & Natanui.

Perhaps that's true but I'll be happy to see that arrogant club come last.

I see Lloyd's still having problems with his hammies.
It's going to be a long season for the Dons.

 

[tigerdave]

Perhaps that's true but I'll be happy to see that arrogant club come last.

I see Lloyd's still having problems with his hammies.
It's going to be a long season for the Dons.

GOOD!!!!

 

[mb64]

Good early signs with the bombers but likely to fade away.10-14

 

[Dyer'ere]

Good early signs with the bombers but likely to fade away.10-14

Pretty much agree, mb. Maybe value for the spoon. I've got em 12-16.

Early Season Preview

The Bummers have won two of five as I write this and I have had a chance to get a good look at them.

Their success to date has been based on their transition game and that in turn on their loaded defence. Esserden has a lot of good tall backs.

One thing we can see is that Knights gets his list to play close to their limits and that the culprit in Esserden's demise is still the same bloke it has been for a decade. The Bummers have a poor list of players. Dadoro gives leprosy a bad name.

Defence

Michael is not far off his best and this keeps Fletcher free to be the best rebounding back in the comp. (Due to Egan's injury Scarlett is back to FB ATM.) That's a sound basis for a backline in itself.

Paddy Ryder continues to improve and in terms of stopping power it's not out of the question that he will become the best stopping tall defender in the comp pretty soon. And that one day he will be the best defender in the league. He is the best six five at ankle height and his groundskills would befit a small. Picks the ball up off the carpet as well as Jake King - well nearly. And he is disciplined. Maybe too disciplined - he don't get much leather and Knights is trying to get him into games by rolling him through the forward line with limited success.

I don't reckon he'll make a forward but he is the bright light at Esserden ATM.

Rama is the good news story of the AFL not that he gets much coverage. He's pretty much back to where he was before the Spanish Dancer. Disciplined and a good user.

Jay Nash is one I've potted over the years. This is his year of 22yo and he does seem to have come of age. He's hard, a good user and plays straight. Orthodox footballer. But the quality of opponent he can stand remains to be seen and I still have major doubts. But I got him wrong once before. He will make a tolerable soldier at least.

Courtenay Dempsey is coming along nicely (hammy ATM). He gives them some rebound and plays the mop role reasonably well. Not a mature player and he reminds me of Jordan McMahon. Meh. I don't mind him. (Compare with JON.)

Bachar Houli is another interesting type. When he gets the ball you’d swear he was posing for a footy card snap. He’s all buttering up and glamour. It’s not such a bad thing when he hits the target. It’s the reason that he’s getting better at hitting targets.

And I like the way that Knights is keeping the heat on him. Bachar’s contact aversion is part of his nature but Knights won’t accept it and has had him battling for senior selection all preseason. When he finally got in he’d improved his accountability out of sight and his endeavour significantly. The lack of hardness is a lingering problem.

Henry Slattery is almost a player. But I reckon his combination of limitations – size and athleticism – will see him out. The stupid errors he makes are not because he’s an idiot, he’s a natural footballer in his way, they’re because he has to over commit just to get there in time. Don’t reckon he’s going to make it.

Kyle Reimers is a promising HBF a bit undersized. Nathan Lovett Murray never was any good and never will be. Peaheartedness is the incurable problem.

Tayte Pears is a promising 18yo baby who looks composed and reminds me of Dean Solomon a bit without any evidence of an aerial game. Definitely a small. And David Myers looks a nice prospect.

The Smallgoods’ backline has a few things in its favour: Quality talls with varying time remaining, a large number of youthful options who can participate in a running game, good transition skills and the pressure of competition for a spot. Against them not one of the smalls is any good except maybe the teenagers.

 

[Dyer'ere]

Midfield

Essendon’s midfield is probably the worst in the comp. Let me show you.

Ricky Dyson can’t get a kick and is scrappy and timid. He is not an AFL player in any position but is in their starting midfield labeit as a run-with. I don’t reckon he’d get a game at any other club except… Melbourne. See? Case closed.

Cam Howat is classes better than him which brings me to Brent Stanton. I like the way Knights has put the acid on Stanton. He gives him run off roles on good players and is stretching the pampered Don’s game in ways that Sheedy never did. I believe the rumours that his name was put on the table at trade time and I admire the way MK has demonstrated the price of failure to the young Bummer. That’s acid.

And over the past year or so BS’s kicking has improved immeasurably. He’s reliable for goal these days. And his defensive efforts have improved to almost acceptable. But the sad fact remains that Stanton can’t get a kick without running forward of the ball or when desperate behind it. And this bloke is their #2 mid. Pffftt.

Watson’s boy has always had trouble with injuries. They’re almost certainly laziness related. He was fat for the first four years of his career. Sheedy put the acid on him once in that time and during five years of lower back/groin susceptibility you’d have to doubt the work the lad was doing on his core strength.

He looks to have lightened of again and he is sound ATM.

And when four big nasty opponents want the footy in traffic Jobe Watson can get it. This is talent, a deadest beacon of the stuff in the Esserden midfield gloom.

But if Watson doesn’t get it there is pretty much nobody else in that team who can.

Mark McVeigh is not an AFL class mid. He’ll get his big numbers in the odd game but when push comes to shove against real mids he will not remember what a football looks like. Not good enough by a long way and will spend decreasing time in the midfield as his fraud is exposed. Matthew Dent and Simon Atkins are classes better than him and they’re almost forty.

Jason Winderlich has been a little unlucky with injury this past off-season. I don’t mind him after getting him wrong a year or so back. I withdraw the previous shitcanning. He’ll make change mid class, is a good user and will win the ball in a contest. Remains to be seen at what class.

Andrew Lovett is already change mid class and he’s a game breaker in his way but he just can’t stay in a game at this stage.

Sam Lonergan has been getting a kick and breaking a line and shows some promise. Houli is strictly outside when he rolls through. Hocking showed a little in the preseason. Hislop is injured again.

A fair #1 mid with nobody in support except a couple of handy #4s. There is a real problem with the talent levels in this midfield.

In their favour is that Knights makes them run and is exposing all his many youngsters to the conditions and must find a couple who can do a job for the club.

 

[Dyer'ere]

Rucks

David Hille is a good user and a good sized unit. The trouble is that he’s just a really average footballer. He’s just not god enough to play his own game at the top four level and not mobile enough to stop the other bloke playing his.

It’s not hopeless for him though ATM. He has a window.

There are two rucks of interest in the entire comp. Dean Cox is a star outside ruck with superb tap and disposal skills, high mobility and a big motor. And he’s super competitive. You can’t get one of these. You can spend #1 draft choices trying but you won’t get one.

Good coaches know this.

Then there are the Adelaide rucks. Prior to the first career threatening injury plodder Rhett Biglands was lending more and better support to his smalls at ground level than any other ruck in the comp.

And then came Ben Hudson. He’s reasonable by hand but he can’t kick. He can’t jump. And he’s just an average mark. Maybe not even that good. Thing is as well as belting the opposition’s inside mid when he can he gets five clearances a game. Michael Voss can be in the middle. Don’t matter.

Ruck rovers win a lot of their clearances through their size and Hudson attacks them or blocks them. Great idea.

One day somebody at Adelaide asked the question - what’s that big pansy with his hands on his hips doing at the centre bounces while all of our smalls are getting killed in a last man standing bloodbath?

So they set their rucks to working for a living. They were greatly aided by the change in the ruck rules which prevents the other ruck from getting a huge air advantage. It’s easier to neutralise the ruck contests meaning the ball falls to the feet of the ruck and if he does his job right this is a win. And for a long time only the Adelaide rucks were doing the job right.

So back to David Hille’s window. The old rules are gone. It’s an inside game and Hille is 110kg. Time to lay down the law. If he loses the glamour and get angry and dangerous and he can be much more valuable than he ever could under the old rules.

But he’s got to get dirt under his finger nails. If he can’t do this in 08 it’s game over. He’ll slide from average.

I mentioned earlier that someone at Adelaide asked the question - what’s that big pansy with his hands on his hips doing at the centre bounces while all of our smalls are getting killed in a last man standing bloodbath?

It’s about time somebody asked that question at Essendon. Jason Laycock should lose the Biggles haircut and the long sleeves. The bloke’s gotta be taking the pith helmet. What is he an antique dealer? (Somebody once told me that that’s what the Dominator was at Carlton- I have no idea what they meant.)

As for playing him forward well not a good idea with impostors. They kick a goal from a gift and then spend a fortnight telling everyone how good they are.

I would already have punted him. Dud.

And this is where we get to the problem and it’s a big one. They’ve only got three rucks. The competition that Knights has set up all over the ground doesn’t apply to the rucks. And that’s why Biggles gets a game and can’t be punted.

Knighter got this wrong. Let’s see what he does about it at the end of the year.

 

[Dyer'ere]

Forwards

Lloyd has been a great servant of the club and a fine player. Maybe he’s on his last legs maybe he can go on.

And Lucas is an AFL class CHF. Has been for ten years. He is a great foil for Lloyd in that he gets the hell out of the arc to leave space for Lloyd to lead into.

But their days of being a fine combination are over. Neither can take a contested mark. Lucas never could and Lloyd is too small.

And so that means that the Smallgoods have to play a resting tall in their forward line or structure up with a real tall forward. And that necessarily means three talls in or around there.

With Lloyd being all but gone there is just bugger all they can do here.

Gumbleton has had some injury setbacks and hasn’t set the world on fire anyway. I’ll believe it when I see it. He couldn’t be any worse than Biggles, could he?

And if they keep the other two it necessarily means a three tall forward structure. Inbflexible set up. No likey.

McVeigh has done pretty well since he has been used in the role he’s suited to – leading #3 forward. Meh.

Nathan Lovett Murray is even worse forward than he is back. Alwyn Davey is lively and just the type you need in any setup. But he can’t be expected to pick up after all the leather litterbugs in Esserden’s attack.

Leroy Jetta is showing some of his stuff at the fall and will be a handy half forward. Jay Neagle is an interesting one. Reminds me of a Luke Jericho. That aint good.

But maybe he’s more like a young Watson. A porker playing out of position. Time will tell.

McPhee was earmarked for a high leading flank with defensive capabilities prior to Lucas’s injury and is pinch hitting at CHF ATM. Pinch hitting. CHF. It’s not a match winning idea is it? Not good enough. Marking time. He’s a better player when he’s angry and he looks contented ATM. May lift at his next club. Freo?

Monfries is getting sorted out right now. He’s too slow to play crumbing forward and is struggling in a defensive mid role. Not going to make it.

Andrew Welsh has been pinch hitting in another forward role. Lead up near the hotspot, add defensive bite. Irrespective of whether he’s recovering from injury he’s just not good enough for this job.

Esserden’s forward line is a disaster for talent. This is disguised to some extent by the pressure Knights has them applying and the fact that nobody has arrived to take the focus from Lloyd and Lucas, even in their dotage.

If Gumbleton doesn’t make it who will?


Essendon is in strife. They have two star forwards in decline and two star backs a little better off. And bugger all in between.

For a long time the deficiencies of this list have been obscured by the genius old timers. Hird’s gone. Lloyd will probably be next. There is no one coming through.

Maybe marginally better off than Melbourne. May face a series of spoons.

 

[pahoffm]

Yes, about right.