2008 - Preseason Preview - 11th of 16 - Fremantle

[pahoffm]

Fremantle
Fremantle fell out of the finals last year as quickly as it had come in the year before.
Chris Connolly paid for that setback with his job as coach. Those of us familiar with the Freo list knew that an aging midfield wouldn't cope with a full season.
In response to that, Troy Cook and Shane Parker are gone but Bell, McManus & Farmer remain. Whilst an aging Mark Johnson has been acquired, But methinks this must be for a future assistant coaching role.
Mark Harvey finally gets a gig as senior coach, assisted by Chris Bond, Peter German, Steve Malaxos, Michael Prior, Chris Scott & Dean Wallis.

Fig.1 - The List
Peter Bell	175	85	32
Shaun McManus	181	81	32
Jeff Farmer	175	78	31
Mark Johnson	179	83	30
Josh Carr	179	80	29
Heath Black	178	82	29
Matthew Carr	191	87	28
Antoni Grover	189	97	28
Dean Solomon	188	102	28
Chris Tarrant	193	92	27
Des Headland	186	91	27
Paul Hasleby	182	87	27
Roger Hayden	182	82	27
Luke McPharlin	193	93	26
Matthew Pavlich	192	101	26
Luke Webster	186	91	26
Aaron Sandilands	211	123	25
Scott Thornton	192	87	25
Steven Dodd	189	82	25
Daniel Gilmore	191	91	25
Joshua Head	189	83	25	new
Ryan Crowley	190	91	24
Brett Peake	185	88	24
Andrew Browne	176	78	24
Adam Campbell	194	90	23
Michael Johnson	193	94	23
Ryan Murphy	193	92	23
Paul Duffield	185	87	23
Byron Schammer	176	80	23
Kepler Bradley	199	102	22	new
David Mundy	192	91	22
Andrew Foster	180	78	22
Ryley Dunn	182	86	22	rookie
Robert Warnock	206	94	21
Marcus Drum	191	84	21
Garrick Ibbotson	188	81	20
Chris Smith	184	85	20	rookie
Brock O'Brien	181	79	20
Brent Connelly	202	87	19	new rookie
Calib Mourish	190	95	19	rookie
Chris Mayne	188	80	19	new
Clayton Hinkley	186	72	19	new
Rhys Palmer	182	80	19	new
Luke Pratt	183	74	18	new rookie

The List, fig.1, shows the usual 44 players on the Freo list, 7 are new, with 5 rookies.
The height groups look much improved with 18 players 190cm or over, 10 taller mediums between 185 to 189cm & 15 players below 185cm.
There are 24 players between 22 and 27yo still indicating that the Dockers have a finals window.

Fig.2 - The Spread
	<180	180-184	185-189	190-194	195-199	200+
28+	McManus M		Grover D	M.Carr D
	Bell M		Solomon D
	Farmer F
	Johnson D
25-27	Black D
	J.Carr M
		Hayden D	Headland M	Tarrant F		Sandilands R
		Hasleby M	Webster U	McPharlin U
			Haddrill D	Pavlich F
22-24			Dodd M	Thornton D
				Gilmore M
	Browne M	Foster M	Peake M	Crowley D	Bradley U
	Schammer M	Dunn M	Duffield D	Campbell F
				Johnson D
18-21				Murphy F
				Mundy D
		Smith U	Ibbotson D	Drum D		Warnock R
		O'Brien M	Mayne F	Mourish F		Connelly R
		Palmer M	Hinkley M
		Pratt D

The Spread, fig.2, shows clearly that, again this year, Freo have overinvested in mobile talls, at the expense of genuine talls. Opposition teams will play genuine talls aginst these seeking a height advantage.
Also clearly shown, again too, is that the bulk of the Freo running comes from a group that is not far off retirement, and this group is crucial to their on-field success.
The observation that Freo can't realise that its twilight runners can't run out a full season remains a mystery.

Fig.3 - Positional Depth
B:	Johnson 179 30 D	Thornton 192 25 D	M.Carr 190 28 D
	Black 176 27 D	Johnson 193 23 D	Gilmore 191 25 M
		Drum 191 21 D	Crowley 190 24 D
HB:	Grover 188 28 D	McPharlin 193 26 U	Hayden 180 27 D
	Solomon 188 28 D	Mundy 192 22 D	Webster 185 26 U
	Haddrill 189 26 D		Pratt 183 18 D
	Duffield 189 23 D
	Ibbotson 187 20 D
C:	Dodd 189 25 M	Hasleby 180 27 M	Dunn 182 22 M
		O'Brien 181 20 M	Foster 180 22 M
		Palmer 182 19 M
HF:	Mayne 188 19 F	Pavlich 191 25 F	Smith 184 20 U
	Mourish 190 19 F	Murphy 192 21 F
F:	Bradley 199 22 U	Tarrant 193 26 F	Farmer 174 31 F
		Campbell 193 22 F	Bell 175 32 M
R:	Sandilands 211 24 R	Headland 185 27 M	McManus 179 32 M
	Warnock 205 20 R	Peake 185 24 M	J.Carr 178 29 M
	Connelly 202 19 R	Hinkley 186 19 M	Browne 174 24 M
			Schammer 176 23 M

Positional Strength, fig.3, shows that Freo have a surplus of defensive tall flankers & 3rd backs, and aging rovers.
They cover their key positions fairly well, but are in dire need of faster flankers.

Conclusion:
Freo's list is positioned such that they may just make the finals this year but it has too many irregularities for sustained and ultimate success.

 

[pahoffm]

Thanks for letting me know that Peter Bell still lives.
But he should have died 3 years ago, along with his fellow geriatrics McManus & Farmer.

This is why I was so ready to believe that he was dead when given a list without his name.
Goes to show, I should have checked my Prospectus 2008.

 

[Tigers of Old]

I think Freo will go very well this year and might give it a real shake.
Last season was an aberration and the side has some genuine quality.
Harvey as coach will toughen them up for this year but won't be able to sustain it beyond that.

With an aging list it's gotta be now for the Dockers or it'll be some time before they get another crack.

 

[mb64]

Anything other than a top 4 finish will be a failure.Prediction 2-6

 

[pahoffm]

The decline in Freo's aging midfield hit them harder & faster than expected.