2007 - Preseason Preview - Conclusions

[pahoffm]

Conclusions:

2006 Ladder

1. Westcoast
The Westcoast list is clearly the best one going around. I don't believe injuries will hurt them.
Only a complete mental lapse, or some extraordinary event, will stop them playing in the 2007 Grand Final.
Actually, I'd back in a repeat Westcoast v Sydney Grand Final now.

2. Sydney
Although the Swans are subtly aging, their list is broad as well as deep and cover all positions on the ground.
There is good youth coming up in nearly all areas.
The Swans should be very competitive once again.

3. Adelaide
Adelaide will rely again on some old legs to see them into finals, although there are some new junior runners emerging.
Much of their season will depend on how those old legs will hold up, and also on how well their thin layer of key positions can withstand injury.
At the end of last season, I would have banked on Adelaide being up there again, now I'm not so sure.

4. Fremantle
Freo's list is positioned such that they may continue just in the finals this year, & maybe next, but it has too many irregularities for sustained and ultimate success.

5. Collingwood
Much of Collingwood's 2007 season will depend on how well their old legs bear up. Injuries in 2005 saw them near bottom. Conversely, old but fit legs saw them into the 2006 finals series.
Probability says that 2007 may see their old legs wilt in 2007, but then again, I said the same thing last year.

6. St Kilda
Ross Lyon has found himself in a dream position. He has just taken over a team that is already established in a premiership window, and now has gone about recruiting to fill those junior & senior holes in its list.
I think having a new coach, with new ideas, could be a filip to lift this team towards ultimate glory. Much of that will depend on the coach's actual performance in a new role and, of course, the players.

7. Melbourne
As said, where Melbourne will finish, in 2007, will much depend on how well they run out each game, and the full season.
Especially since most of their key running positions are filled with old legs.

8. Bulldogs
The Bulldogs recruiting staff has worked wonders over the last two to three years. They have risen from cellar dwellers to finalists in that time.
One suspects that the Bulldogs may have a lull inbetween during the time their current "aged" stars retire and the "new" stars take over.
As more experience comes into the group, over the full range of players, to me, if they can continue to recruit in this fashion, ultimate glory is very likely over the next few years.

9. Richmond
The Tigers may enter the finals door in 2007 based on that core group of very experienced/twilight players, but unfortunately there isn't enough coming through in the next group to sustain the effort. At that time, the Tiges will fall back.
Tiger supporters will have to wait another 4 years for a more sustainable premiership window to open up when the bulk of the list becomes more mature.
The positive spin is that the Tigers' list affords Wallace four years to recruit & develop his next brigade of rucks & key position players before his day of reckoning comes, if Tiger supporters give him that time.

10. Geelong
Geelong supporters should be experiencing the joys of playing in a premiership window, yet are not. The list is balanced, and has quality, which suggests their current lack of success is "cultural".
The team, in recent years, has been lacking for explosive pace. It is now taking the required steps of recruiting these smaller explosive players.
My observation is that, at the selection table, not enough of these smaller, faster, more explosive types are icluded into the starting 22. Hopefully, for Geelong supporters, they will be included in 2007.

11. Hawthorn
The Hawks will continue to improve as the mode of their list converges upon that 22-27yo bracket.
One might guess that 2007 will see them knocking on the door to the finals, with either of 2008 or 2009 being the year that their window truly opens.
Hawk supporters can feel confident that their window of joy is not that far away.

12. Port Adelaide
Port Adelaide are rebuilding for the future, and as they are part way through this process there are a few gaps in their list.
Hopefully, for their supporters' sake, some of these younger outside types can transform themselves into inside, onball types. If not, Port will be hurt badly many times throughout this season.

13. Brisbane
Brisbane seem to be a long way off the field. They have too many average sized players and little pace.
As seen last year, the "Gabba" is no longer the fortress it was, and Lions supporters can probably be prepared for a season very similar to 2006.
They say that one must confront problems before they are overcome. Let's hope, for Brisbane's sake, that 2007 proves to be the year that some of these problems are confronted.

14. Kangaroos
The Kangas have improved their list. They now have young replacements for many positions that were not filled in 2006.
It would seem that the their hierarchy have also learnt that trading future stars, i.e. draft picks, for rejects from other clubs doesn't work.
The list is better but still needs those understudy midfielders & key position players to gain greater experience.

15. Essendon
There actually may be some marginal improvement for the Bombers in 2007. First & second year players in 2006 will have another season under their belts, and the recruitment of more smaller-medium runners will help them to run out a full season.
For my mind, Bomber fans should take confidence in the recent list changes, but the team is still someway off the pack.

16. Carlton
Indications are that the Carlton list is out of balance. It has far too many talls and is lacking for enough speedy midfielders & flankers. The team is very young, top heavy, and slow.
During 2007, many may have thought that Carlton may have been playing "fox" to pick up some early draft picks. When understanding the spread of the Carlton list, one realises that the performance reflected those imbalances.
Mind you, the distribution of the list has improved from last year. There are more smaller faster players than in 2006. For that reason, only, there may be marginal improvement for Carlton in 2007.

Ladder Prediction - 2007
1. Westcoast ( with a bigger GF winning margin.)
2. Sydney
3. Fremantle
4. Adelaide
5. St Kilda
6. Bulldogs
7. Geelong
8. Richmond
9. Hawthorn
10. Melbourne
11. Collingwood
12. Kangaroos
13. Port Adelaide
14. Essendon
15. Carlton
16. Brisbane

I welcome others to put forward their own ideas.

 

[TigerFurious]

Ladder Prediction - 2007
1. Westcoast ( with a bigger GF winning margin.)
2. Sydney
3. Fremantle
4. Adelaide
5. St Kilda
6. Bulldogs
7. Geelong
8. Richmond
9. Hawthorn
10. Melbourne
11. Collingwood
12. Kangaroos
13. Port Adelaide
14. Essendon
15. Carlton
16. Brisbane

Every year since 95' there has always been a team that finished in the bottom 8 the previous year and come up and finished top 4 the following year.

Why should 2007 be any different?

 

[benny_furs]

Good work and these appear to be "sensible" predictions.

Of course there will be teams that surprise and are impossible to predict, but I think you can start with this as the logical probability of where teams will finish.

Then with this structure, a few teams will greatly leap ahead or fall behind.

 

[Rosy]

Thanks heaps for the massive amount of effort you put into your team reviews Phantom. i haven't had a chance to read them all properly yet but intend to do so, and of course to refer back throughout the season.

 

[pahoffm]

Thanks everyone.

One thing I am convinced is that it is going to be a very tight competition for 7th & 8th and the Tigers must have alot of things go right for them to achieve one of these positions.

Good luck to all teams!

Well, nearly all teams.

 

[Rosy]

Well, nearly all teams.

Well, 1 team, our team. :gotigers

 

[Tigers of Old]

My team varies a little Phantom FWIW.

1. Fremantle - Going to tip them for the flag this year. The most likely team to knock of WC IMO.

2. West Coast - Too many players getting into off field trouble. I think they are good but expect them to drop the ball when it counts.

3. Bulldogs - Big improvers. Will go close.

4. Sydney - Too good not to be top four again but will fall away slightly.

5. Melbourne - Good mix of youth and experience. Will win plenty of games but not yet top shelf.

6. Adelaide - Will slide a little but good enough to make the eight.

7. Geelong - Good enough to make finals but nothing more.

8. St Kilda - Will begin a slide and will likely just make the eight.

9. Hawthorn - Could be the start of a great run for them but will fall just short.

10. Richmond - Midfield isn't good enough yet to make the eight. Will drop a little unfortunately.

11. Port Adelaide - Still rebuilding. Some talented kids coming through.

12. Collingwood - Poor but a good draw will see them threaten for a spot in the eight only to fall out when it counts.

13. Essendon - Going to be a lot of disappointed Bomber fans.

14. Carlton - I expect them to haul themselves off the canvas and win a few games this year.

15. Kangaroos - Nowhere near it.

16. Brisbane - Will bottom out to complete the fall from grace.

 

[CyberKev]

Again, well done to Phantom for taking the time to do such a thorough and well constructed analysis.

Both Phantom's and TOO's ladders look perfectly credible.

I'm actually having a lot of difficulty deciding on spots and the preseason to date hasn't helped matters.

Nonetheless, you've got to have a crack at it, although its quite possible (probable?) that I could do this again in just a fortnight's time and see some changes to the ordering.

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1) SYDNEY = Assuming that Peter Everitt can stay healthy, the Swans look the best placed to me. The team is generally well balanced, and while most of its topliners are at the wrong end of the age spectrum, they are at the peak of their powers and should hold up well for this season and the next. The Swans have a solid to very good record against all opponents (bar Adelaide) in recent times and also performs well at most venues.

2) FREMANTLE = Expect the good form of 2006 to spill over into 2007. Led by the best player in the competition and looking strong and stable across the park, the Dockers should win almost all games at Subiaco and have shown a capability for winning recently in Melbourne. The Dockers may be the butt of many a West Coast fans' jokes, but this hides a deep-seated fear that Freo will eventually render the Eagles to a permanent second fiddle spot in WA. Its really only a matter of when and Freo should be able to make some strong strides toward this reality over the next few years.

3) WEST COAST = I have toyed with the idea of dropping the Eagles to about 5th or 6th, but their massive homeground advantage should be enough to keep them in the four. Many have already pencilled the Eagles in for back-to-back flags, but I still see the blue & golds as one of the weaker premiership sides I've seen in three decades of football watching. Genuine quality sides wouldn't have been so badly troubled by lowly battlers as the Eagles were on a good many occasions last season, and few premiership sides would've fallen across the line in a decider after dominating the game against a struggling opponent that literally only had a couple of winners across the park on GF day. For all the lauding of the Eagles midfield, it was clear that the side had to go conventional to win the flag and an improved forward structure managed to get them there. Its questionable, however, if there's any marked improvement left in that forward structure and indeed, the overall side, regardless of its relatively youthful overall list age. Still well placed in a competition where long-term strong sides are fading and lower list battlers still have some developing to do.

4) ST KILDA = The first season in several where I haven't thought that the Saints have clearly the best list in the competition. This is my riskiest prediction, given the injury prone nature of the Saints squad and the untried capacity of coach Lyon, but when the side is up and running it remains extremely tough to counter. Clarke & Gardiner give the side some serious X-factor in the ruck (where they have been woeful for some time) and the return of Hayes will be a huge boost to the midfield. The team could certainly do with some extra pace and polish out wide, but they still have the quality personnel to perform well.

5) BULLDOGS = There's obviously plenty to like about the Bulldogs, not the least of which being their fab skill level as a group. The Bulldogs use the football as well as any side in the competition. The club is to be admired for its eforts last season, but at times got found out for being too short across the park and, even more worryingly, for lacking serious hard man grunt. There's not a lot to get scared about with the Hounds, who could seriously use a couple of hard nut intimidator types in their midfield rotation. That said, if you get the skills and smarts right, you'll find yourself most of the way there and the Hounds will definitely be winning more than they lose. Finals football could be a worry though.

6) ADELAIDE = Pretty much the last bite at the cherry for Neil Craig's boys. Most of the side's guns are at the wrong end of the age range and would be older than their actual years due to the stresses of many unfulfilled finals campaigns. The side still looks quite strong out of the midfield, which will ensure that it remains very competitive, but will need to call on some young ruck talent during the year, along with its growing reliance on a couple of players to carry its forwardline. Should be good enough, particularly with the AAMI home advantage to snare a finals gig, but can't see this side going all the way.

7) PORT ADELAIDE = Port lacks the depth of young talent that some sides have, but they do have some great prospects. More than this, they have players like Tredrea, Lade, Burgoyne & the Cornes boys who provide a very healthy core group around which to bring through the young guys. There is a clear frailty to Port and they simply cannot afford to be without Tredrea and Lade for long periods, but assuming these guys stand up, they'll have enough to sneak a finals spot. I'm expecting Burgoyne, in particular, to have a stellar season.

8) GEELONG = Right up until this point in time, my thinking has been that Geelong will again miss the eight. For the Cats, I feel their greatest strength is, perversely, also their greatest weakness. In short, the Cats are too blue collar, across the park in general and out of the midfield in particular to ever be genuine premiership threat. Selwood may be good enough to have an impact, as will Varcoe and the other Indigenous recruit (whose name escapes me), but this will take time. The Cats have strong bodies and can be hard at the contest, but they lack flair and if their workrate drops away, the side is horribly exposed.

9) MELBOURNE = Will fight the above two sides tooth and nail for a finals spot. Melbourne has some good young talent, particularly around the midfield, but also contains a number of players who get routinely found out in the bigger games. The side will be very dangerous up forward and should compete strongly out of the middle, but has worries in the ruck (where injuries and the new ruck rule are catching-up with White and alternative options are both weak and limited) and out of defence where the side lacks genuine class and strength.

10) RICHMOND = I've been going to put the Tigers in the eight for months now, but have switched to the Cats, which appeal as a safer option. The Tigers have a fairly well balanced side and have a good mix of experience and youth, but as with the Cats, lack serious X-factor. Of greater concern, is the limited nature of the Tigers midfield, its lack of ruck depth, and the overall skill level of the playing group as a whole. Polak will help stabilise the defence and Richo & Brown will give any side headaches, but its hard to see how the side can win more than it loses.

11) COLLINGWOOD = The Magpies have big gaps in all areas, but given the soft nature of their draw, and the quality inherent in their top player grouping, they should be able to keep themselves out of the bottom four. The Magpies will be hoping that Didak gets back on the park quickly and that Thomas comes on, or they will lack any real spark up forward. Their midfield looks solid, but limited, and you could probably say the same for their defence. Nothing to write home about, but a 9-12 finish looks about right.

12) HAWTHORN = Some romantic types believe Hawthorn can make the eight this year, but the realists will have noted the disparity between the two NAB performances put in by the team and will know that such a view is unrealistic. Hawthorn has as strong an inside midfield presence as any and does have good players in peripheral roles, but the ruck remains a worry, as does the still raw nature of its key position stocks. The club will debut another large clump of players and will need to work hard to reduce the gap between its best and worst performances. Anything more than 8-10 wins will be a bonus, but for the most part this will be a stabilising season.

13) ESSENDON = Even more romantic Bomber types have been talking the team up as a top four smokey over the summer, but back on planet earth reality continues to bite. Michael is past his best and is definitely no saviour and it will take some years for their raw young midfield fancies to improve what would arguably be the weakest midfield in the competition. The team is vulnerable down back and while it does possess forward strength, its hard to see it winning enough midfield ball to exploit this. Another long year ahead.

14) CARLTON = The team won't improve a lot, but has enough in it to go up a couple of spots. Murphy will be a super player out of the centre and I expect Kennedy to make good strides out of CHF, but obviously Fevola's health will be the essential ingredient for the side to remain competitive across 2007. The Blues will be happy to have strung a couple of NAB wins together, but should be worried that their very best side played those games and struggled to pip weakened and poorly performing opposition. This has been the story of Carlton for several years now, with the side enjoying a wonderful injury run, but still struggling even against weakened opponents.

15) KANGAROOS = Nothing gets me excited about the Roos at all, except, perhaps, for getting a look at Lachlan Hansen. The Roos don't look especially well catered for in any part of the ground. Will have done a mighty job if they manage to escape the bottom four and should be a genuine spoon contender.

16) BRISBANE = I've always thought that the Gabba homeground advantage would be enough in itself to keep the Lions of the bottom, but they just don't inspire confidence. People will look at their NAB cup showings and argue that Brisbane might even be a finals fancy, but the NAB cup can be dangerously misleading. The Lions have a shrinking core group of quality players, most of whom are worrying injury prone, and will need all these players fit and firing to avoid the bottom four. Their recent form at the once indominable Gabba fortress is even more concerning and you can expect the side to leak goals down back where big gaps exist (for the moment) with their defensive structure.

 

[evo]

I'll have a go.Can't be bothered going into massive detail.

1.West Coast-Phenominal depth.Their list is a credit to the recruiting department and willingness to stay the course depsite critisism of perceived weakness(forward targets).Match hardened bodies.The current dynasy.Can see them being top 4 for the next 5 years

2.Adelaide-similar reasoning to West Coast.Unfortunate run of luck with injuries to rucks.Hudson staying fit is the key.

3.Freo-Have toughened up since Shaw/Harvey got there and J.Carr came home.Also good depth.Tarrant and an emerging Murphy gives viable alternatives to the 'just kick it to Pav'.Great emerging talent.Mundy would be worshiped on PRE if he played for Richmond.Coach is still a bit of weakness but he's slowly learnt the caper.

4.Sydney-Would've had them dropping more but for recruiting Spider.Best 'champion team' rather than 'team of champions'.Best coach in the league currently Roos.List is not that great,can see them falling away in a few years the way Port and Brisbane have.

5.Saints-Tip them for a high finish every year and have let me down in the past.Easily the best Victorian team list.New coach is an unknown but can't see how he could possibly be worse than Cornflakes.Lenny's total recovery from a knee crucial(wish he captained Richmond-no way I'd devalue it by making him share it)- Goddard a big year.

6.Bulldogs-Depends alot on how Darcy,Acker,Johnson and Mcdougall perform as a unit.Can see some inconsistencies in form but their younger talent just getting to that age where they break out.Eade a top coach.Will be very hard to beat at Telstra Dome and the 'G.

7.Geelong-Like Kev,I've swapped the Tiges and the Cats(and not just on the strength of the Wiz cup game).Bomber knows he's coaching for his career.I see the 'blue collar' aspect of their mids as their real strength.Chapman and GAblett can be swung into the mids field in spruts to add flair.N.Ablett provides another viable option to Donut.Mooney should remain at CHF all season even if just to draw the burlyiest defender away from NAblett/Donut.Handy hoime ground advantage.

8.Melbourne.-Great midfield.Bit like Sydney in that when they're playing as a team hard for anyone to beat.A few holes here and there.Daniher also coaching for his career.

9.Collingwood-Being able to play in Melbourne nearly every week will see them 2 or 3 places higher than they deserve.Medhurst may be a handy addition,Rusling to kick on.Alot more hardened than Richmond but a slow midfield.Alot depends on Rocca.

10.Richmond-Looks like we have to wait another year.

11.Port-Tredrea crucial.Great midfield and rucks.Ok backline.Forward line suspect.Interstate advantage and good coach.List still needs alot of work-probably the list most similar to Richmonds.

12.Hawks-see Cyberkev explaination-could be a bolter,but i doubt it.Great rebuild from the ground up.Just need more patience.2nd worst coach in the league (after Laidley) :-*


raffle the bottom 4.

13.Brisbane
14.Carlton
15.Essendon
16.North

 

[lisamaree]

I can't see Collingwood or St Kilda making the eight (notwithstanding the draw in Collingwood's case), I rate Geelong & Port Adelaide the most likely for positions 7 & 8.

 

[Tigers of Old]

I can't believe how far off most people's predictions were this season.
I for one one got this year's ladder completely wrong.
The competition is so even these days.
Unfortunately the only thing that you can predict with any certainty is that we will be in the bottom half of the ladder when it comes to the business end of the season.