2007 - Preseason Preview - 9th of 16 - Western Bulldogs

[pahoffm]

Western Bulldogs
The Bulldogs seem to be clearly emerging from  a few years in the wilderness. Enormous credit to them that it was only 2004 when they received picks three and six in the National Draft.
In 2006, they were in the finals. Yet the last game of the season may have given a better indication of where they were in relation to the top of the ladder.
Rodney Eade continues as senior coach. He is assisted by Chris Bond, Leon Cameron, Sean Wellman, and Jason Mifsud in a player development role.

Fig.1, The List
Peter Street	211	105	26
Cameron Wight	200	93	21
Will Minson	198	103	21
Luke Darcy	197	100	31
Andrew McDougall	197	97	23	new
Tim Walsh	196	92	21
Tom Williams	196	94	20
Stephen Tiller	195	81	20
Michael West	195	91	20		rookie
Brian Harris	194	100	25
Chris Grant	193	99	34
Wayde Skipper	193	91	24
Travis Baird	193	83	20
Andrejs Everitt	193	77	18	new
Paul O'Shea	192	82	17	new
Marty Pask	191	97	22	new	rookie
Ryan Hargrave	190	87	25
Dale Morris	190	86	24
Sam Power	189	85	23
Mitchell Hahn	188	96	25
Daniel Cross	187	82	24
Ryan Griffen	187	85	20
Robert Murphy	186	82	24
Adam Cooney	186	85	21
Farren Ray	186	81	21
Dylan Addison	186	73	19
Josh Hill	186	72	18	new
Jordan McMahon	185	80	23
Matthew Boyd	184	85	24
Shaun Higgins	184	79	18
Brennan Stack	184	76	18	new
Brad Johnson	182	85	30
Daniel Giansiracusa	182	80	25
Damian McCormack	182	73	20
Gavin Hughes	181	76	21	new	rookie
Brett Montgomery	180	83	33
Lindsay Gilbee	180	80	25
Nathan Eagleton	179	81	28
Cameron Faul'ner	179	81	22
Scott West	178	80	32
Matthew Robbins	178	87	29
Malcolm Lynch	178	65	18	new
Jarrod Harbrow	178	71	18	new	rookie
Jason Akermanis	177	83	30	new

The List, fig.1, has the standard 44 players, of which 10 are new players, and 4 rookie players.
It has 20 of 44, 45% of age 21yo or less, which conforms with many of the teams we've looked at thus far. The six players 30yo and over are a worry in respect towards the intensity of a full season. Especially since there are some important players for the Bulldogs in this group.
More importantly, they have only 16 of 44, 36%, between the age of 22-27yo. It's from this group premierships come from.
Also, significantly, is that 18 of 44, 41%, are 190cms or more. Generally, football followers aren't used to seeing a Bulldogs list with as many talls.

Fig.2 - The Spread
	<175	175-179	180-184	185-189	190-194	195-199	200+
28+		West 178 32 M	Montgomery 180 33 D		Grant 193 34 F	Darcy 197 31 R
		Akermanis 177 30 M	Johnson 182 30 F
		Robbins 178 29 F
25-27		Eagleton 179 28 F
			Giansiracusa 182 25 M	Hahn 188 25 M	Harris 194 25 D		Street 211 26 R
			Gilbee 180 25 D		Hargrave 190 25 D
22-24
		Faul'ner 179 22 D	Boyd 184 24 M	Cross 187 24 M	Skipper 193 24 F	McDougall 197 23 F
				Murphy 186 24 F	Morris 190 24 D
				Power 189 23 D	Pask 191 22 D
				McMahon 185 23 D
18-21
		Lynch 178 18 M	Hughes 181 21 M	Cooney 186 21 M	Baird 193 20 D	Minson 198 21 R	Wight 200 21 R
		Harbrow 178 18 M	McCormack 182 20 M	Ray 186 21 M	Everitt 193 18 D	Walsh 196 21 F
			Higgins 184 18 M	Griffen 187 20 M	O'Shea 192 17 D	Williams 196 20 D
			Stack 184 18 F	Addison 186 19 F		Tiller 195 20 F
				Hill 186 18 F		West 195 20 F

The Spread, fig.2, paints a more clear picture of where the Bulldogs' list is at. One can see the remains of the unbalance caused in the last few years of the Wallace regime. Only 3 players 195cm or more that are over 21yo says much about it.
Over the last 3 years, the club has recruited a very strong and broad list of juniors. The only imbalance is now in its surplus of young talls. Understandably, the Bulldogs have learnt the lesson from the wasted era of the 90s, of not listing enough key position players.
On the positive side, the strength in the list is a broad ranging group below 25yo. The Bulldogs are setting themselves up for possibly a great future.

Fig.3 - Positional Depth
B:	Faul'ner 179 22 D	Morris 190 24 D	Hargrave 190 25 D
		Baird 193 20 D	Pask 191 22 D
		Everitt 193 18 D
HB:	McMahon 185 23 D	Harris 194 25 D	Montgomery 180 33 D
	Power 189 23 D	Williams 196 20 D	Gilbee 180 25 D
		O'Shea 192 17 D
C:	Cross 187 24 M	West 178 32 M	Griffen 187 20 M
	Ray 186 21 M	Cooney 186 21 M	Hughes 181 21 M
HF:	Johnson 182 30 F	Skipper 193 24 F	Akermanis 177 30 M
	Murphy 186 24 F	McDougall 197 23 F
	Addison 186 19 F	Walsh 196 21 F
	Hill 186 18 F
	Stack 184 18 F
F:	Darcy 197 31 R	Grant 193 34 F	Robbins 178 29 F
		Tiller 195 20 F	Eagleton 179 28 F
		West 195 20 F
R:	Street 211 26 R	Hahn 188 25 M	Giansiracusa 182 25 M
	Minson 198 21 R	Boyd 184 24 M	McCormack 182 20 M
	Wight 200 21 R	Higgins 184 18 M	Harbrow 178 18 M
			Lynch 178 18 M

Positional Depth, fig.3, indicates that the Bulldogs have over-covered themselves in some places, and are a bit sparse in others. Why would any list want so many stick sized medium forwards?
Again, on a positive note, they are gathering significant depth in their key positions, ruck & midfield.

Conclusion:
The Bulldogs recruiting staff has worked wonders over the last two to three years. They have risen from cellar dwellers to finalists in that time.
One suspects that the Bulldogs may have a lull inbetween during the time their current "aged" stars retire and the "new" stars take over.
As more experience comes into the group, over the full range of players, to me, if they can continue to recruit in this fashion, ultimate glory is very likely over the next few years.

 

[tigerjoe12]

plenty of young kp/rucks. maybe we could trade for one. would love another young KPD or ruck

with Darcy and Grant leaving soon, and Street 2nd rate at best it may prove to be a good drafting strategy.

 

[pahoffm]

Yes, it's my worry that our list is beginning to resemble the Bulldog list of the 90s.

As we've seen, it's a hard job getting into finals.
It would be a shame for us to get there and then not have enough kpps or rucks to win any major finals.

 

[CyberKev]

Much is made, not surprisingly, of the Bulldog younger players, but your Figure 2 is most illuminating, as it outlines concerns for the Hounds in terms of the number of key performers that they have at the wrong end of the age ledger.

This will probably hurt more than they expect across 2009-10, but they are likely to have a couple of very strong years before this. 

Darcy's woes have hit hard and the club would surely benefit from having a few tall types stand-up in 2007, but either way they'll always be dangerous simply because they have so many footballers who are so good by foot.

I worry that they'll be found out in big 'cauldron' games, however, simply because they lack obvious physical presence and are a bit light-on for strong bodied players more generally.  Against sides like West Coast, Sydney and Adelaide (who are also good ball users, but tend to have stronger bodies on hand) they are likely to do it hard.

Still a definite top four chance in 2007, however, and I will watch their ongoing development with interest.

 

[Tigers of Old]

Interesting Wallace analysis of his former team and some of his thoughts on recruiting etc.


Hopes high in the West
27 March 2007 Herald-Sun
Terry Wallace

YOU can tell that Bulldogs fans have a sniff. More than usual over summer, I've been peppered with questions about how their team will go, Terry Wallace writes.

I usually give them a simple answer: the Doggies have the deepest list of any football team in the country.

There are players who will either be interchange or emergencies for the Dogs who would get a game in the starting 18 with any other club, including West Coast and Sydney.

And when you have the best depth in the competition, you have a genuine chance to win the flag.

Many long-time insiders at Whitten Oval believe it is the best list the club has had -- better than the 1997-98 preliminary final teams I coached.

That is yet to be proved, but there is much to like about the Dogs.

Without a doubt, they have more midfield runners than any other combination in the AFL.

They have up to 15 genuine running machines and will usually have at least 12 genuine runners in the starting line-up each week.

It makes it almost impossible to lock down the likes of Jordan McMahon, Lindsay Gilbee, Adam Cooney, Scott West, Nathan Eagleton, Jason Akermanis, Robert Murphy, Daniel Giansiracusa, Brad Johnson, Daniel Cross, Farren Ray and Ryan Griffen.

And I'm naming just a few. Someone will always get out of the loop.

The Dogs' physical size will always be questioned, and the importance of Luke Darcy, Chris Grant and Brian Harris is immeasurable.

So how does one team get the jump over others with such a strong list? By getting all aspects of the system right.

There are several factors that determine a club's future success.

THE DRAFT

McMahon, Cooney, Murphy, Griffen and Ray are quality first-round selections, while the Dogs have also done well with their mid-range picks to get players such as Gilbee (43), Giansiracusa (32) and Mitch Hahn (37).

In the early days, while other teams were throwing draft picks away to pick up ready-made players, the Bulldogs were doing the opposite with players such as Luke Penny, Kingsley Hunter, Michael Martin, Brett Montgomery, Stephen Powell, Leon Cameron and Paul Hudson, some of whom were excellent players, leaving the club to build a future generation.

This new generation started when recruiting manager Scott Clayton arrived at the club in 1999.

TRADE

The Bulldogs' trades have fitted into two categories: for speed, which is the basis of their line-up, and size, which has been on a needs basis.

They have been able to add Eagleton, Matthew Robbins, Peter Street, Andrew McDougall and Akermanis to give them greater depth.

DIAMONDS IN THE ROUGH

Everyone would love to find a diamond. In football that's what it is like to pick a player late in the draft, or the rookie draft, who becomes a star.

The Bulldogs have been successful in finding some diamonds in the rough. Clayton has made an art form of picking guys out of speculative selections.

Gilbee, such a wonderful ball user, was recruited to the club with pick No. 43 in the national draft, while Daniel Cross, who has developed into the ultimate professional footballer, came with selection 56.

Other regular key players in the Doggies' line-up are Ryan Hargrave (No. 66), who is a running machine, and Harris (No. 71), a strong-bodied key-position player with genuine speed.

The Dogs found Matthew Boyd in Frankston's reserves team and selected him with the 23rd pick in the rookie draft.

Dale Morris came from Essendon District club Doutta Stars as a 17-year-old and went to Werribee when he was selected with the 19th pick in the 2005 rookie draft.

WHO SELECTS FUTURE STARS?

David Parkin is one of the greatest coaches I played under, yet he would be the first to admit his job was not to recruit. Give me quality players and I will give you a premiership was his philosophy.

I am always amazed when I hear experts from the media speak about coaches losing their jobs because they have not selected the right players for their club. Likewise, I have a laugh when some coaches want to take over the whole recruiting process.

The coach's role is to work with the recruiting department to ensure that everyone has an understanding of the type of players the club is trying to develop for its future.

But it is like any other form of business. If you have a manager in place who you trust, you must allow them to do their job.

Recruiters have an intimate knowledge of players, so you must allow them to make their selection. Their job lives and dies on their ability to make the right selections.

I believe the draft is the recruiting department's responsibility, while trading is the responsibility of the senior coach and the match committee.

THE RECRUITING EXPLOSION

As AFL clubs have realised the importance of getting their recruiting right, there has been an explosion in spending in these areas.

Less than a decade ago the best recruiting managers in the AFL were earning less than the club's football manager.

Yet on-field success relied on bringing the right players to the club.

When I look at my time at the Western Bulldogs, I believe the most important decision I made was to convince management to bring in Clayton as head of recruiting.

Since his arrival for the 1999 national draft, he has selected a group of players who will ensure success for the next decade.

When I decided to return to football, I chose Richmond because I believed they had another experienced recruiting manager, Greg Miller.

He's the director of football and alongside him is Francis Jackson, who has been in the game for more than 30 years and understands what it takes to play at the elite level.

The analysis that goes into the selection of players, from personality profiles through to strength and conditioning tests, is so detailed that clubs now send recruiters to track speeds and distances run by 16-year-olds.

In today's AFL, where big spending is part of success, clubs can't afford to be left behind in their recruiting.

http://www.heraldsun.news.com.au/footy/common/story_page/0,8033,21451667%255E19742,00.html

Gives a very good insight into our coaches philosophies.