2007 - Preseason Preview - 7th of 16 - Geelong

[pahoffm]

Geelong
No group of spectators could be more frustrated with their team than Geelong supporters. This team promises so much, yet delivers so little.
A major enquiry into the club took weeks to be finalised, gave an all clear, yet destablising activities from amongst the playing staff continue to occur. It points to a fundamental flaw in the culture of the club, and culture is invariably determined by its leaders.
"Bomber" Thompson enters his eighth year as the head coach of the Cats. He is assisted by Ken Hinkley, Brendan McCartney, Brenton Sanderson, Leigh Tudor and David Wheadon.
Interesting to see that there is no specialist forward coach in this team that has lacked forward grunt for quite a few years now.

Fig.1 - The List
Steven King	202	106	28
Brad Ottens	202	104	27
Mark Blake	200	96	21
Henry Playfair	198	99	24
Trent West	198	90	19
Tom Lonergan	197	97	22		rookie
Tom Hawkins	197	95	18	new
Matthew Egan	196	101	23
Nathan Ablett	195	95	21
Cameron Mooney	194	95	27
Sam Hunt	193	91	23
Matthew Spencer	193	95	22
Tom Harley	192	94	28
Matthew Scarlett	192	95	27
Andrew Mackie	192	82	22
Todd Grima	192	87	20		rookie
Joel Corey	190	86	25
Charlie Gardiner	190	89	24
Darren Milburn	189	89	29
Cameron Ling	189	93	26
Max Rooke	189	87	25
Steven Johnson	189	89	23
Joel Reynolds	188	81	22	new	rookie
Stephen Owen	188	80	19
Corey Enright	186	90	25
Jimmy Bartel	186	85	23
Josh Hunt	185	100	25
Jason Davenport	185	82	21	new	rookie
Brent Prismall	184	81	20
Ryan Gamble	184	75	19
James Kelly	183	86	23
Gary Ablett	182	86	22
Kane Tenace	182	84	21
Joel Selwood	182	80	18	new
David Johnson	181	87	25
Tim Callan	181	80	23
Simon Hogan	181	68	18	new
David Wojcinski	180	80	26
Liam Bedford	180	68	18	new	rookie
Paul Chapman	179	85	25
Travis Varcoe	179	71	18
Mathew Stokes	177	80	22
Nathan Djerrkura	176	77	18	new
Shannon Byrnes	174	73	22

The List, fig.1, looks impressive enough. There are 44 players on the list. Of these, there are seven new players, of which five are rookies. This is a relatively low number of "newies", which would suggest stability in the list.
Of the list, 30 of the 44, 68%, are below 25yo, which would indicate a good depth of youth at the club. Yet only 26 of the 44, 59%, are below 190cm, indicating the list might be a little top heavy.

Fig.2 - The Spread
	<175	175-179	180-184	185-189	190-194	195-199	200+
28+				Milburn 189 29 D	Harley 192 28 D		King 202 28 R
25-27		Chapman 179 25 M	Wojcinski 180 26 D	Ling 189 26 M	Mooney 194 27 D		Ottens 202 27 R
			D.Johnson 181 25 M	Rooke 189 25 D	Scarlett 192 27 D
				Enright 186 25 D	Corey 190 25 M
				J.Hunt 185 25 D
22-24	Byrnes 174 22 M	Stokes 177 22 M	Kelly 183 23 M	S.Johnson 189 23 F	Gardiner 190 24 F	Playfair 198 24 F
			Callan 181 23 D	Bartel 186 23 M	S.Hunt 193 23 D	Egan 196 23 D
			G.Ablett 182 22 F	Reynolds 188 22 F	Spencer 193 22 D	Lonergan 197 22 F
					Mackie 192 22 F
18-21		Varcoe 179 18 M	Tenace 182 21 M	Davenport 185 21 M	Grima 192 20 F	N.Ablett 195 21 F	Blake 200 21 R
		Djerrkura 176 18 M	Prismall 184 20 M	Owen 188 19 F		West 198 19 R
			Gamble 184 19 M			Hawkins 197 18 F
			Selwood 182 18 M
			Hogan 181 18 M
			Bedford 180 18 D

The Spread, fig.2, clearly shows that the Cats should be in the middle of a premiership window, with the bulk of their list sitting in that 22-27yo bracket. The fact that they missed the 2006 finals shows how much they are wasting this opportunity.
On the positive side, credit to the Cats' recruiters for picking two top-line speedsters in Varcoe & Djerrkura. These types will add to their midfield pace.
On the negative side, the 22-24yo key position players such as Gardiner, Sam Hunt, Spencer, Mackie & Playfair have promised much and delivered little. These few will be under enormous pressure to hold their places if they don't perform in 2007.
Such is the disappointment with this group that many football experts are now looking at the next group of Nathan Ablett, Grima & Hawkins to fill the key forward positions.
Lonergan's injury was devastating to many, including myself, who held great hope for him.

Fig.3 - Positional Depth
B:	Wojcinski 180 26 D	Scarlett 192 27 D	Milburn 189 29 D
	Bedford 180 18 D	Egan 196 23 D	Rooke 189 25 D
		S.Hunt 193 23 D
HB:	Enright 186 25 D	Harley 192 28 D	Callan 181 23 D
	J.Hunt 185 25 D	Mooney 194 27 D	Hogan 181 18 M
		Spencer 193 22 D
C:	Corey 190 25 M	D.Johnson 181 25 M	Stokes 177 22 M
	Prismall 184 20 M	Kelly 183 23 M	Tenace 182 21 M
	Gamble 184 19 M	Selwood 182 18 M
HF:	S.Johnson 189 23 F	Gardiner 190 24 F	G.Ablett 182 22 F
	Reynolds 188 22 F	Mackie 192 22 F
	Owen 188 19 F	Lonergan 197 22 F
F:	Ottens 202 27 R	N.Ablett 195 21 F	Byrnes 174 22 M
	Playfair 198 24 F	Grima 192 20 F
	Hawkins 197 18 F
R:	King 202 28 R	Ling 189 26 M	Chapman 179 25 M
	Blake 200 21 R	Bartel 186 23 M	Varcoe 179 18 M
	West 198 19 R		Djerrkura 176 18 M

Positional Depth, fig.3, shows that Geelong can fill each position on the field very comfortably with both mature, development and junior players.
The only concern lies in the quality of the players that one might expect to be filling their key positions, and that their junior understudies look more promising than their stars.

Conclusion:
Geelong supporters should be experiencing the joys of playing in a premiership window, yet are not. The list is balanced, and has quality, which suggests their current lack of success is "cultural".
The team, in recent years, has been lacking for explosive pace. It is now taking the required steps of recruiting these smaller explosive players.
My observation is that, at the selection table, not enough of these smaller, faster, more explosive types are icluded into the starting 22. Hopefully, for Geelong supporters, they will be included in 2007.

 

[Tigers of Old]

Tigers up next! :gotigers

Enjoyable reviews as always Phantom. :fing32

 

[Ghost of Punt Road]

Phantom, when you say their current lack of success is 'cultural' I would think if your team has experience in all positions and you are in your premiership window of opportunit, then the blame lies with either (or both) your recruiting staff from about seven years ago, or your coach.

 

[pahoffm]

Phantom, when you say their current lack of success is 'cultural' I would think if your team has experience in all positions and you are in your premiership window of opportunit, then the blame lies with either (or both) your recruiting staff from about seven years ago, or your coach.

True.

Another area is leadership. How well focused & attuned is the side?

Culture comes from above, as we have seen at Tigerland.

Their end of season review should have identified this.

 

[CyberKev]

Hmmm.

How do you get a 2007 fix on the Cats?

Last season was truly diabolical for them and they've already chosen to write it off as an abberation, but I'd still be a bit worried about them.

The main concern I had with them heading into 2006 was that I thought they were too "blue collar" through their midfield, with regard to both their inside and outside midfielders.

Selwood was a good choice and both Varcoe and Djerrkura promise to lift them in future out wide, but as with hawthorn, I would still expect them to focus heavily on outside mids over the next two drafts. Unlike Hawthorn, I don't think they are quite as well positioned for inside midfield talent and will need to find at least one more quality inside type at the same time.

 

[Tigers of Old]

I see no improvement. None.

Same forward problems as last year but without Kingsley.
How will they kick a score?

Cats to miss the eight again and an under pressure Thompson to resign as coach towards the end of the year.

 

[nwonash]

I think Geelong will make the eight. Their midfeild is very good and talented. One of the best on paper.

Of recent years, premierships have been built around a strong midfield. Last year was very disappointing, but I think 2007 the Cats should finish anywhere between 4th - 7th.