2007 - Preseason Preview - 6th of 16 - Hawthorn

[pahoffm]

Hawthorn
The Hawks are now 3 years into their 5 year plan that begun with the 2004 draft. The big question is whether they are only 2 years away from opening their premiership window.
Their football department has gone the conventional route to rebuilding their list. Back in 2004 & 2005, their focus was on key position players & ruckmen. In the last draft, 2006, they focused on tall mediums. One might hazard a guess that explosive outside smaller mediums might be their target at the end of 2007.
Alistair Clarkson continues as the senior coach, assisted by Damien Hardwick, Ross Smith & Todd Viney. There appears to be no specialist ruck nor key position coaches.

Fig.1 - The List
Max Bailey	206	93	20
Simon Taylor	200	102	24
Brent Renouf	200	93	18	new
Robert Campbell	199	107	23
Luke McEntee	197	89	19		rookie
Lance Franklin	196	95	20
Zac Dawson	195	88	21
Beau Dowler	195	84	19
Mitchell Thorp	194	86	17	new
Tim Boyle	193	92	23
Jarryd Roughead	193	98	20
Grant Birchall	192	84	19
Stephen Gilham	191	84	22
Jarryd Morton	191	81	18	new
Trent Croad	190	96	27
Josh Thurgood	190	77	21
Danny Jacobs	189	96	26
Tom Murphy	189	87	21
Clinton Young	189	82	21
Beau Muston	189	79	20
Ben Dixon	188	91	29
Travis Tuck	188	79	19
Matt Little	187	83	21
Xavier Ellis	187	73	19
Matthew Suckling	187	80	18	new	rookie
Brett Collins	187	73	18	new	rookie
Jordan Lewis	186	89	20
Josh Kennedy	186	86	18	new
Joel Smith	185	87	29
Luke Hodge	184	90	22
Sam Gibson	183	81	20	new	rookie
Brent Guerra	181	91	24
Mark Williams	180	82	23
Brad Sewell	180	84	23
Garry Moss	180	70	18	new
Sam Mitchell	179	84	24
Rick Ladson	179	82	23
Richard Vandenberg	178	84	30
Michael Osborne	178	80	24
Campbell Brown	177	84	23
Tim Clarke	176	78	24
Shane Crawford	174	80	32
Chance Bateman	174	77	25
Ben McGlynn	174	75	21

The List, fig.1, has 44 players, the normal maximum, with eight new players, of which four are rookies.
Of the list, 37 of the 44, 84% are under 25yo, which infers that the Hawks are looking towards the future. Whilst 26 of 44, 60%, are between 20-25yo, so that future isn't that far away.
Also, 29 of the 44 players are 185cm or over, this does raise concern regarding the speed of the team. I believe this is where Hawthorn's future development lay.

Fig.2 - The Spread
	<175	175-179	180-184	185-189	190-194	195-199	200+
28+	Crawford 174 32 F	Vandenburg 178 30 M		Dixon 188 29 F
				Smith 185 29 D
25-27	Bateman 174 25 M			Jacobs 189 26 D	Croad 190 27 U
22-24		Mitchell 179 24 M	Guerra 181 24 F		Boyle 193 23 F	Campbell 199 23 R	Taylor 200 24 R
		Osborne 178 24 D	Williams 180 23 F		Gilham 191 22 D
		Clarke 176 24 M	Sewell 180 23 M
		Ladson 179 23 M	Hodge 184 22 M
		Brown 177 23 D
18-21	McGlynn 174 21 M		Gibson 183 20 M	Murphy 189 21 U	Thurgood 190 21 U	Dawson 195 21 D	Bailey 206 20 R
			Moss 180 18 M	Young 189 21 D	Roughead 193 20 U	Franklin 196 20 F	Renouf 200 18 R
				Little 187 21 F	Birchall 192 19 D	McEntee 197 19 R
				Muston 189 20 M	Morton 191 18 F	Dowler 195 19 F
				Lewis 186 20 M	Thorp 194 17 F
				Tuck 188 19 M
				Ellis 187 19 D
				Suckling 187 18 D
				Collins 187 18 M
				Kennedy 186 18 D

The Spread, fig.2, is looking better. One can see that there are a few taller 21yo boys that are just about to jump up into the next group.
There are just a handful of twilight players who really aren't needed anymore. These should drop off the list in the next year. There is a big gap in the mature 25-27yo section, but that only serves to relate that Hawthorn are not currently in their window.
It would appear that the Hawks may be in a position to drop off a handful of 22-24yo that are marginal, especially regarding their smalls.
Clearly the area that does need attention are the speedy smaller mediums, ie 180-184cm players. This will be their area of attention come the end of 2007.

Fig.3 - Positional Depth
B:	Osborne 178 24 D	Dawson 195 21 D	Jacobs 189 26 D
	Brown 177 23 D	Murphy 189 21 U	Gilham 191 22 D
HB:	Young 189 21 U	Croad 190 27 U	Smith 185 29 D
	Ellis 187 19 D	Birchall 192 19 D	Sewell 180 23 M
	Suckling 187 18 D		Kennedy 186 18 D
C:	Thurgood 190 21 U	Mitchell 179 24 M	Gibson 183 20 M
	Collins 187 18 M	Moss 180 18 M
HF:	Dixon 188 29 F	Roughead 193 20 U	Guerra 181 24 F
	Little 187 21 F	Thorp 194 17 F	Williams 180 23 F
F:	Taylor 200 24 R	Franklin 196 20 F	Crawford 174 32 F
	Boyle 193 23 F	Dowler 195 19 F	Ladson 179 23 M
		Morton 191 18 F
R:	Campbell 199 23 R	Hodge 184 22 M	Vandenburg 178 30 M
	Bailey 206 20 R	Muston 189 20 M	Bateman 174 25 M
	McEntee 197 19 R	Lewis 186 20 M	Clarke 176 24 M
	Renouf 200 18 R	Tuck 188 19 M	McGlynn 174 21 M

Positional Strength, fig.3, looks interesting. Their centre of the ground looks excellent with a lot of depth in rucks and onballers.
Full back still looks a worry and one can only guess that they will continue to develop Zac Dawson for this role. Possibly Tom Murphy could be looked at too, but at 189cm he looks more of a shorter "Scarlett" option.
The wings and flanks look very needy of explosive athletic smaller medium types. Again this will be the area of this list's next development.

Conclusion:
The Hawks will continue to improve as the mode of their list converges upon that 22-27yo bracket.
One might guess that 2007 will see them knocking on the door to the finals, with either of 2008 or 2009 being the year that their window truly opens.
Hawk supporters can feel confident that their window of joy is not that far away.

 

[the golden]

you put alot of work into that phantom i hope we are at least 2 yrs give or tak from the G/F would love it sooner but have to be realistic on that it would be a bonus to get into the 8 and a huge bonus to gt to a GF in 07 [got to have dreams don't we] but i don't want to put tooo much pressure at once on our guys and have what happened to the saints happen to us

 

[Tigerdog]

Will be surprised if they dont figure in the bottom 4 or 5.

 

[the golden]

i think it will be higher then that maybe not the 8 i wish but the ones just below that as i think the tigers should do well too and should be close to the 8 as well i think that the blues will have another shocker of a year but hey who knows we could be all wrong couldn't we

 

[Tigerdog]

You want a six pack of crown lager says that the Hawks wont finish higher than 11th, the golden?? 8)

 

[chickenspin]

Bailey out with a knee doesn't help the Hawks.

 

[the golden]

Bailey out with a knee doesn't help the Hawks.

yes will agree with that doesn't help as one bit :'(

You want a six pack of crown lager says that the Hawks wont finish higher than 11th, the golden?? 8)

no i don't drink , [most times any way :spin] as long as we beat the bombers i am happy :clap

 

[Tigerdog]

Bailey is a second year ruckman? Or was he due for his 3rd year this year? Either way if you were pinning your hopes on him being a great influence to your senior team in 07 than you are already expecting way too much.

 

[the golden]

Robbie Campbell will be doing the main ruck Tails might be helping they might get in a new guy Luke McEntee 197 89 19 rookie to do some rucking too
but hey it is all wait and see which i can not wait as i find it a touch boring with no footy though i do like fishing which i have done a bit of lately but won't be able too during the season unless i am lucky

 

[pahoffm]

As I posted earlier, I expect Campbell & Taylor to share the bulk of the ruckwork.
Bailey would probably've been the next one up in case of injury/suspension.
With Bailey gone, McEntee may be forced into an early debut.
That is unless Renouf beats him to it, and that's not out of the question.

Both Greg Miller & I were very keen on what we'd seen of Renouf up in Qld.
Greg was very upset that he didn't last until our 2nd round choice.

That's the 3rd time in 3 years you've knicked a tall from us.
2004 - Roughead
2005 - Bailey
2006 - Renouf

 

[the golden]

thanks for your reviews they are always good to read :clap

 

[pahoffm]

thanks for your reviews they are always good to read  :clap

Thank you.

 

[realist]

Bailey is a second year ruckman? Or was he due for his 3rd year this year? Either way if you were pinning your hopes on him being a great influence  to your senior team in 07 than you are already expecting way too much.

We weren't expecting massive things from Bailey in 2007, but general improvements. We weren't pinning our hopes on this season around Bailey. But from 2008 onwards we were, and him getting injured this year puts him a year behind development, and he may not return the same player. He was also considered a year in front of where they expected him to be after 2006, so they were confident of him playing a lot of footy this year.

Just one point Phantom on an otherwise excellent review. You looked at players over 186 and said there were a lot over this height. Then concluded from this Hawthorn may be slow. Ellis, Franklin, Muston, for example are over this height but are some of our quickest players. However I do agree we'll probably keep looking for midfielders in the next draft, especially with skill because in terms of speed our players run pretty hard but don't use the ball which means the pace is wasted. But it does look like we are drafting tall utilities. Its important to have mobile talls who can play in a lot of positions and move around easily

But it was a really good review and a good read

 

[Tigers of Old]

Bailey is a second year ruckman? Or was he due for his 3rd year this year? Either way if you were pinning your hopes on him being a great influence to your senior team in 07 than you are already expecting way too much.

They ditched Everitt and now lose Bailey. Make no mistake their ruck stocks are low.
If Taylor &/or Campbell go down(who aren't worldbeaters anyway) they will struggle in 07.

 

[pahoffm]

Just one point Phantom on an otherwise excellent review. You looked at players over 186 and said there were a lot over this height. Then concluded from this Hawthorn may be slow. Ellis, Franklin, Muston, for example are over this height but are some of our quickest players. However I do agree we'll probably keep looking for midfielders in the next draft, especially with skill because in terms of speed our players run pretty hard but don't use the ball which means the pace is wasted. But it does look like we are drafting tall utilities. Its important to have mobile talls who can play in a lot of positions and move around easily

But it was a really good review and a good read

Agreed.
There are some quick players amongst your talls.
The point was that although some talls may be quick, they do lack the explosive pace that smaller speedsters often have.
It was one of my key points of criticism over the Tiger list of season 2004.
As a consequence, many of the 185-189cm Tiger players, of that list, were ejected in favour of smaller, speedier juniors that you see now.
The Hawks should have a care about the same.

The loss of Bailey won't affect Hawthorn too badly in 2007.
However, if he doesn't recover sufficiently from his injury, it will put a dent in Hawthorn's future ruck stocks.

I worry the same about the junior Tiger KPPS.
Very thin.
We lose either of Pattison or Graham, or both, to a long term injury, we're in "shtoopsville".

 

[realist]

Good points, I agree.

Franklin is explosive in the sense he can kick 3 in 3 minutes. But a lot of run is generated from the flanks these days. People go on about slow midfielders etc, but if you have real speed on the turn over, and quality inside mids you can get by.

Muston could be that player, but he hasn't played a game yet so we can't bank on that, even though the fans are extremely excited about him to say the least. Birchall will probably be used on a wing, Ellis could play back flank and link up with reasonable speed. Be nice to have someone with Bateman like speed on the other back flank though. Bateman would be used there but isn't silky enough even though he is a good goal kicker on the run combined with needing him on the wing.

It'll be interesting where we use Hodge as well. When he was back there setting up play he create drive and attackings plays from defence by reading the play and kicking deep which is the same idea as running the ball out hard to create a turn of play. I think we may use him more there and give more game time to Lewis in the middle this year. It'd be nice for Hodge to say he is a midfielder, which he plays exceptionally, but I think as a team we play better when he's in defence controlling play, so they may go with the latter for the sake of the team Sewell, Mitchell, Lewis, Crawford, Vanders, Bateman could all still play on ball so Hodge may go back with only bursts in the middle.

On your point regarding the Tigers key position players. I think if Pattison, Hughes, Riewoldt, Shults etc all come on you'll have enough, but as you said its when one goes down its the problem. If you can get the best out of Polak it'll help your enormously.

 

[CyberKev]

They ditched Everitt and now lose Bailey. Make no mistake their ruck stocks are low.
If Taylor &/or Campbell go down(who aren't worldbeaters anyway) they will struggle in 07.

True enough.

But this just leaves us in the same situation as a number of clubs: Carlton, Richmond, St Kilda & Collingwood to name four.

 

[Tigers of Old]

They ditched Everitt and now lose Bailey. Make no mistake their ruck stocks are low.
If Taylor &/or Campbell go down(who aren't worldbeaters anyway) they will struggle in 07.

True enough.

But this just leaves us in the same situation as a number of clubs: Carlton, Richmond, St Kilda & Collingwood to name four.

Agreed Kev.
Just highlights the lack of genuine quality talls across the league these days.
Ruck depth is an issue in the AFL.

 

[CyberKev]

Excellent work as always, Phantom.

I was actually surprised that we had so many 180cm and smaller players on our list.

I tend to agree with most of what you say.

A few points...

1) Bailey may only have just gone 20, but he was already pushing Taylor hard for the 2nd ruck gig.  As ever, I have little truck with the standard "you shouldn't even be considering ruckmen for the top flight until they're 23!" lines, as all players develop differently and some will develop ahead of arbitrary age averages.  At any rate, players are going to struggle to develop for top flight AFL if they're not in the top flight of the AFL these days, and Bailey's injury is a massive blow to him and the side.

2) In a more positive light, your second figure shows that Hawthorn is well placed to the extent that it will be retiring its four veterans over the next couple of seasons, but shouldn't be overly hindered by this process, given that none of the veterans are among the key six players at the club.

3) Your assertion that Hawthorn is likely to target outside midfielders at the next draft is a no-brainer (I would say that it will be their focus over the next two).  Hawthorn has put in the hard yards at recent drafts to balance its structure and improve overall foot skills across the park, but remains short of a couple of quality outside midfielder types (and that's assuming that Ellis & Muston go on to cut the mustard).

 

[CyberKev]

Agreed Kev.
Just highlights the lack of genuine quality talls across the league these days.
Ruck depth is an issue in the AFL.

Yes, rucks must be the hardest position for coaching staff's to allow for.

In general, 4 would be enough, but you can get caught out with this number if 1 or 2 are developing and you take a couple of hits.

You could be like Brisbane and the Kangaroos and have about 6 rucks on your list, which will give you plenty of cover, but will invariably leave you a tad short elsewhere, particularly as there aren't too many Dean Cox running ruck types around to give you genuine value up forward or down back if needed.

I guess it is some compensation for clubs that the ruck rule change leaves young ruck prospects less physically exposed at centre bounces, making it a bit easier for young rucks to undergo a steep learning curve in the seniors. Of course, the physical aspect is only one part of the overall ruck equation.