Essendon
Many might think that old "Shady Sheedy" had pulled a swifty in 2006. Many times the Bombers found themselves right in the game at three quarter time, only to just fail.
There were about 10 games in season 2006, where had Essendon been able to run out the game, they would have taken the points. This may be a clue to the Bombers recruiting for 2007.
The coaching ranks at Essendon seem thinner with the departure of Mark Harvey & Robert Shaw to Fremantle prior to last season. O'Donnell, Wallis & fitness adsvisor John Quinn remain as assistants.
I'm not quite sure if Shaw intends remaining at Fremantle or returning to Essendon.
The List, fig.1, in 2007 also has 44 players. The list has 27 of the 44, 60%, under 190cm. Therefore Sheedy is looking to play a running game.
29 of the 44, 65%, are under 25yo, whilst of that, 15 of the 44, 33%, are under 21yo. This indicates that it will be sometime before Essendon develops themselves sufficiently to enter a new window.
An interesting question is how did Adam Ramanauskas, at 26yo, become eligible to have a spot on their rookie list where other AFL clubs were refused players of a lesser age.
I have empathy for Ramanauskas's condition, but this is clearly a rule for one and not for others.
The Spread, fig.2, indicates where the damage was done to the Bomber's list. It has too many key position players (KPPs) that continued for too long without replacement.
The thinness in the ranks of the 22-27yo KPPs shows errors in their recruiting from the late 1990s, through to about 2003. An even larger thinness is evident in their small runners.
It is only in the last year or two that the Bombers have desperately attempted to overcome these weaknesses.
Premiership lists usually boast half a dozen explosive smalls. They still lack for explosive rover types, which is surprising if one considers the influence of Daisy Williams & Ezard on their premiership history. Jetta may answer this area.
The Essendon spread still indicates much imbalance on their list.
Positional Depth, fig.3, indictes a lack of experience in the rucks & in the key midfield positions.
It is also quite clear that there is a thin layer of very experienced players covering the ground, but the next level down is extremely inexperienced.
This would indicate that the Bombers may start the season reasonably well, but will have major problems seeing out the 2nd half of the season when injuies kick in.
Conclusion
With all of this in mind, there actually may be some marginal improvement for the Bombers in 2007. First & second year players in 2006 will have another season under their belts, and the recruitment of more smaller-medium runners will help them to run out a full season.
For my mind, Bomber fans should take confidence in the recent list changes, but the team is still someway off the pack.
Many might think that old "Shady Sheedy" had pulled a swifty in 2006. Many times the Bombers found themselves right in the game at three quarter time, only to just fail.
There were about 10 games in season 2006, where had Essendon been able to run out the game, they would have taken the points. This may be a clue to the Bombers recruiting for 2007.
The coaching ranks at Essendon seem thinner with the departure of Mark Harvey & Robert Shaw to Fremantle prior to last season. O'Donnell, Wallis & fitness adsvisor John Quinn remain as assistants.
I'm not quite sure if Shaw intends remaining at Fremantle or returning to Essendon.
| Fig.1 - The List | |||||
| James Hird | 188 | 89 | 34 | ||
| Dustin Fletcher | 199 | 102 | 31 | ||
| Scott Camporeale | 180 | 80 | 31 | ||
| Scott Lucas | 192 | 97 | 29 | ||
| Jason Johnson | 181 | 82 | 29 | ||
| Matthew Lloyd | 195 | 89 | 28 | ||
| Mal Michael | 190 | 99 | 28 | new | |
| Chris Heffernan | 186 | 85 | 28 | ||
| Mark Johnson | 179 | 83 | 28 | ||
| Mark Bolton | 195 | 91 | 27 | ||
| Damien Peverill | 183 | 80 | 27 | ||
| Mark McVeigh | 184 | 84 | 26 | ||
| Adam Ramanauskas | 183 | 83 | 26 | rookie | |
| David Hille | 202 | 109 | 25 | ||
| Nathan Lovett-Murray | 189 | 84 | 24 | ||
| Adam McPhee | 189 | 89 | 24 | ||
| Andrew Welsh | 188 | 88 | 24 | ||
| Andrew Lovett | 182 | 75 | 24 | ||
| Richard Cole | 186 | 97 | 23 | ||
| Jason Laycock | 200 | 102 | 22 | ||
| Courtney Johns | 194 | 100 | 22 | ||
| Jobe Watson | 191 | 90 | 22 | ||
| Jason Winderlich | 188 | 79 | 22 | ||
| Alwyn Davey | 178 | 72 | 22 | new | |
| Kepler Bradley | 195 | 98 | 21 | ||
| Jay Nash | 187 | 83 | 21 | ||
| Ricky Dyson | 183 | 81 | 21 | ||
| Henry Slattery | 183 | 81 | 21 | ||
| Lachlan McKinnon | 204 | 99 | 20 | rookie | |
| Andrew Lee | 195 | 89 | 20 | ||
| Danny Charters | 194 | 95 | 20 | new | rookie |
| Sam Lonergan | 182 | 83 | 20 | ||
| Brent Stanton | 182 | 82 | 20 | ||
| Angus Monfries | 181 | 70 | 20 | ||
| Jay Neagle | 189 | 99 | 19 | ||
| Heath Hocking | 185 | 83 | 19 | rookie | |
| Courtenay Dempsey | 184 | 69 | 19 | ||
| Scott Gumbleton | 197 | 93 | 18 | new | |
| Patrick Ryder | 197 | 88 | 18 | ||
| Dean *smile* | 193 | 85 | 18 | new | rookie |
| Tom Hislop | 184 | 86 | 18 | new | |
| Bachar Houli | 181 | 89 | 18 | new | |
| Leroy Jetta | 177 | 76 | 18 | new | |
| Kyle Reimers | 184 | 78 | 17 | new |
29 of the 44, 65%, are under 25yo, whilst of that, 15 of the 44, 33%, are under 21yo. This indicates that it will be sometime before Essendon develops themselves sufficiently to enter a new window.
An interesting question is how did Adam Ramanauskas, at 26yo, become eligible to have a spot on their rookie list where other AFL clubs were refused players of a lesser age.
I have empathy for Ramanauskas's condition, but this is clearly a rule for one and not for others.
| Fig.2 - The Spread | |||||||
| <175 | 175-179 | 180-184 | 185-189 | 190-194 | 195-199 | 200+ | |
| 28+ | Camporeale 180 31 M | Hird 188 34 F | Lucas 192 29 F | Fletcher 199 31 D | |||
| J.Johnson 181 29 M | Heffernan 186 28 M | Michael 190 28 D | |||||
| Lloyd 195 28 F | |||||||
| 25-27 | M.Johnson 179 28 D | Peverill 183 27 M | Bolton 195 27 D | Hille 202 25 R | |||
| Ramanauskas 183 26 M | |||||||
| McVeigh 184 26 D | |||||||
| 22-24 | Davey 178 22 F | Lovett 182 24 F | McPhee 189 24 D | Johns 194 22 F | Laycock 200 22 R | ||
| Lovett-Murray 189 24 D | Watson 191 22 M | ||||||
| Welsh 188 24 D | |||||||
| Cole 186 23 D | |||||||
| Winderlich 188 22 M | |||||||
| 18-21 | Jetta 177 18 M | Slattery 183 21 D | Nash 187 21 D | Bradley 195 21 D | McKinnon 204 20 R | ||
| Dyson 183 21 M | Charters 194 20 D | Lee 195 20 D | |||||
| Stanton 182 20 M | Hocking 185 19 M | Ryder 197 18 R | |||||
| Monfries 181 20 M | Neagle 189 19 F | *smile* 193 18 F | Gumbleton 197 18 F | ||||
| Lonergan 182 20 M | |||||||
| Dempsey 184 19 M | |||||||
| Houli 181 18 F | |||||||
| Hislop 184 18 M | |||||||
| Riemers 184 17 F |
The thinness in the ranks of the 22-27yo KPPs shows errors in their recruiting from the late 1990s, through to about 2003. An even larger thinness is evident in their small runners.
It is only in the last year or two that the Bombers have desperately attempted to overcome these weaknesses.
Premiership lists usually boast half a dozen explosive smalls. They still lack for explosive rover types, which is surprising if one considers the influence of Daisy Williams & Ezard on their premiership history. Jetta may answer this area.
The Essendon spread still indicates much imbalance on their list.
| Fig.3 - Positional Depth | |||
| B: | M.Johnson 179 28 D | Michael 190 28 D | McPhee 189 24 D |
| McVeigh 184 26 D | Fletcher 199 31 D | Lovett-Murray 189 24 D | |
| Slattery 183 21 D | Charters 194 20 D | ||
| HB: | Welsh 188 24 D | Bolton 195 27 D | Heffernan 186 28 M |
| Nash 187 22 D | Bradley 195 21 D | Cole 186 23 D | |
| Lee 195 20 D | |||
| C: | Peverill 183 27 M | Dyson 183 21 M | Camporeale 180 31 M |
| Winderlich 188 22 M | Stanton 182 20 M | Ramanauskis 183 26 M | |
| Hislop 184 18 M | Dempsey 184 19 M | ||
| HF: | Hird 188 34 F | Lucas 192 29 F | Lovett 182 24 F |
| Riemers 184 17 F | Gumbleton 197 18 F | Houli 181 18 F | |
| *smile* 193 18 F | |||
| F: | Hille 202 25 R | Lloyd 195 28 F | Davey 178 22 F |
| Johns 194 22 F | |||
| Neagle 189 19 F | |||
| R: | Laycock 200 22 R | J.Johnson 181 29 M | Monfries 181 20 M |
| Ryder 197 18 R | Watson 191 22 M | Lonergan 182 20 M | |
| McKinnon 204 20 R | Hocking 185 19 M | Jetta 177 18 M |
It is also quite clear that there is a thin layer of very experienced players covering the ground, but the next level down is extremely inexperienced.
This would indicate that the Bombers may start the season reasonably well, but will have major problems seeing out the 2nd half of the season when injuies kick in.
Conclusion
With all of this in mind, there actually may be some marginal improvement for the Bombers in 2007. First & second year players in 2006 will have another season under their belts, and the recruitment of more smaller-medium runners will help them to run out a full season.
For my mind, Bomber fans should take confidence in the recent list changes, but the team is still someway off the pack.
