2007 - Preseason Preview - 15th of 16 - Sydney

[pahoffm]

Sydney
The Swans came extremely close to winning consecutive premierships in 2006.
Their list looked near pefect in 2005, and still extremely good in 2006.
In 2007 the list is still very good, but is showing the initial signs of aging.
Paul Roos continues as coach, ably supported by ex-Kangas John Longmire, John Blakey and Brett Allison, as well as ex-Bomber Peter Berbakov.

Fig.1 - The List
Stephen Doyle	204	105	25
Peter Everitt	203	108	32	new
Darren Jolly	200	104	25
Daniel Currie	200	91	17	new
Earl Shaw	199	97	20		rookie
Sam Rowe	196	86	19		rookie
Jesse White	196	101	18	new
Barry Hall	194	101	30
Adam Goodes	194	96	27
Lewis Roberts-Thomson	194	97	23
Luke Vogels	194	92	23
Ed Barlow	194	92	20		rookie
Ted Richards	192	95	24
Heath Grundy	192	97	20
Peter Faulks	192	74	18	new
Sean Dempster	191	87	23
Craig Bolton	190	89	26
Tadhg Kennelly	190	90	25
Matthew Davis	190	78	20		rookie
Michael O'Loughlin	189	92	30
Nick Malceski	189	86	22
Ryan O'Keefe	187	90	26
Leo Barry	185	88	29
Luke Brennan	185	84	22	new	rookie
Matthew Laidlaw	185	83	20
Brett Kirk	184	80	30
Nick Davis	184	85	26
Luke Ablett	184	92	24
Jarrad McVeigh	184	81	21
Daniel O'Keefe	184	74	18	new
Paul Bevan	183	82	22
Kristin Thornton	183	74	19
Nicholas Smith	183	73	18	new	rookie
Jude Bolton	182	83	27
Ben Mathews	181	86	28
Ryan Brabazon	181	72	20
Jonathan Simpkin	181	76	19
Matthew O'Dwyer	181	79	18	new	rookie
Tim Schmidt	180	84	21
Nic Fosdike	179	82	27
Amon Buchanan	179	84	24
Adam Schneider	178	78	22
Jarred Moore	178	84	21
Kieren Jack	176	76	19		rookie
Jared Crouch	173	81	29
Simon Phillips	173	65	19

The List, fig.1, has the advantage of 46 players.
16 of their 46 players, 35% are 25yo or over, indicative of subtle aging of the list. Whilst 20 of the 46, 44%, are 21yo or younger, which gives them a good future.
19 of their 46 players, 40% are 190cm or more. That's two in every five players are talls.
Finally 7 of the 46 are less than 180cm smalls, providing plenty of pace at ground level.

Fig.2 - The Spread
	<175	175-179	180-184	185-189	190-194	195-199	200+
28+	Crouch 173 29 D		Kirk 184 30 M	O'Loughlin 189 30 F	Hall 194 30 F		Everitt 203 32 R
			Matthews 181 28 D	Barry 185 29 D
25-27
		Fosdike 179 27 M	J.Bolton 182 27 M	R.O'Keefe 187 26 F	Goodes 194 27 U		Doyle 204 25 R
			N.Davis 184 26 F		C.Bolton 190 26 D		Jolly 200 25 R
					Kennelly 190 25 D
22-24
		Buchanan 179 24 M	Ablett 184 24 M	Malceski 189 22 M	Richards 192 24 U
		Schneider 178 22 M	Bevan 183 22 M	Brennan 185 22 M	Roberts-Thomson 194 23 D
					Vogels 194 23 F
					Dempster 191 23 D
18-21
	Phillips 173 19 M	Moore 178 21 M	McVeigh 184 21 D	Laidlaw 185 20 M	Barlow 194 20 U	Shaw 199 20 R	Currie 200 17 R
		Jack 176 19 M	Schmidt 180 21 M		Grundy 192 20 F	Rowe 196 19 R
			Brabazon 181 20 M		Davis 190 20 F	White 196 18 U
			Thornton 183 19 D		Faulks 192 18 D
			Simpkin 181 19 F
			O'Keefe 184 18 F
			Smith 183 18 M
			O'Dwyer 181 18 M

The Spread, fig.2, shows a fair cloud of twilight players. This wasn't the case when they won their premiership of 2005.
As for the last few years, Sydney have lacked for 195cm plus player, but have made up for it with more mobile talls. They are trying to overcome this with more junior talls.
Their lack of junior taller-medium players is made up for with an excess of smaller mediums.
Overall, though aging, the Swans cover their spread very well.

Fig.3 - Positional Depth
B:	Crouch 173 29 D	Barry 185 29 D	C.Bolton 190 26 D
		Faulks 192 18 D	Dempster 191 23 D
HB:	Kennelly 190 25 D	Roberts-Thomson 194 23 D	Matthews 181 28 D
	Laidlaw 185 20 M	Barlow 194 20 U	McVeigh 184 21 D
		White 196 18 U	Thornton 183 19 D
C:	Malceski 189 22 M	J.Bolton 182 27 M	Ablett 184 24 M
	Bevan 183 22 M	Brabazon 181 20 M	Brennan 185 22 M
		O'Dwyer 181 18 M	Schmidt 180 21 M
HF:	R.O'Keefe 187 26 F	Hall 194 30 F	N.Davis 184 26 F
	D.O'Keefe 184 18 F	Vogels 194 23 F	Simpkin 181 19 F
F:	Goodes 194 27 U	O'Loughlin 189 30 F	Scheider 178 22 M
	Richards 192 24 U	Grundy 192 20 F	Phillips 173 19 M
		Davis 190 20 F
R:	Everitt 203 32 R	Kirk 184 30 M	Fosdike 179 27 M
	Doyle 204 25 R	Smith 183 18 M	Buchanan 179 24 M
	Jolly 200 25 R		Moore 178 21 M
	Shaw 199 20 R		Jack 176 19 M
	Rowe 196 19 R
	Currie 200 17 R

The Positional Strength, fig.3, of the Swans indicates good coverage around the ground.
They have plenty of KPPs, Rucks, flankers & midfielders.


Conclusion:
Although the Swans are subtly aging, their list is broad as well as deep and cover all positions on the ground.
There is good youth coming up in nearly all areas.
The Swans should be very competitive once again.

 

[Tigers of Old]

I think you are overstating their "subtly aging list" just a bit.
3 players aged 30yrs old + Everitt(32) hardly makes them old timers.

I do agree that they will be there abouts again.
Plenty of talent in the Swans lineup.
Top 4.

 

[mexican_radio]

When considering the likely success of a team like Sydney, would you take into account the possibility of other teams developing a strategy to counter their strengths and game plan? Will opposition coaches be looking very very closely at Sydney, how they like to get in front early then control the game? I thought it might be an interesting variable to add to the equation !

 

[pahoffm]

When considering the likely success of a team like Sydney, would you take into account the possibility of other teams developing a strategy to counter their strengths and game plan? Will opposition coaches be looking very very closely at Sydney, how they like to get in front early then control the game? I thought it might be an interesting variable to add to the equation !

Of course.
Strategy & tactics are an ever evolving thing.

Last year, we saw Westcoast grab the early initiative from Sydney in the 1st qtr of the GF.
It completely turned the tables.
A credit to Roos that Sydney were able to fight their way back into the game.

 

[Dyer'ere]

The Swans should be in their prime. A fit classy 30yo should be the supreme AFL player. But I don't see it that way for Sydney.


The Swans are fairly predictable. So is the coach. He's no star at the matchups. Eg- his endeavours to match up Judd are usually hilarious. And Hunter doesn't kick three in his other games up forward. Such perseverance in the face of stupidity. If you didn't laugh you'd cry. And crying is for Clokes.

The Swans have been a misunderstood side for many years. They have enjoyed success based in a large part on their outstanding forward line.

But IMO it's in decline.

Barry Hall puts on a black frock, a white cap and apron and cleans Darren Glass's house. But that's not all Roos's fault. Festival must enjoy this or he'd do something about it.

Bazza has been worked out and has, to some extent, imploded. He drops his head and then starts with the lame attempts to chest mark if you get on top of him. (A rookie would be dragged for this.) He gets angry but is incapable of administering even the most innocuous bump. He is a rumour as an enforcer and has no talent at collisions. Barry Hall is harmless. And finally, that's common knowledge.

He can't take a contested mark. And he can't jump. Doesn't jump. He's a ground player.

So since Jason Ball retired, Sydney is reliant on Doyle or Jolly (or even Chambers :rofl :rofl :rofl :rofl) to provide the aerial target in the big packs. Neither of their 2006 rucks would get a game at Richmond if Knobel and Simmonds were fit. Lepers. Doyle spends game days at the races or the pool so he may have some improvement in him. We'll never know.

So the number two marking target in the Sydney forward line is Micky O'Loughlin. He's been gone for two years. Too small when right. Still quick on the burst, the bloke can't kick 35 metres. And doesn't he drop his head. He's a liability.

Nick Davis played some fine footy working as a #4 forward. His value was in spreading the defence. If he lead to a dead pocket you had to defend it because he can convert from anywhere in the arc. It's not over for him but he is now a notorious bludger on the track and can't keep up on the park. One cameo in a semi is not enough. If Davis doesn't work during the week his career will be over.

Ryan O'Keefe usually plays in a midfield role. When he plays forward the Swans have this standard play that he often benefits from. All the forwards lead to the skinny side then the bloke sending it in kicks to space on the fat side. O'Keefe breaks to that side and with the advantage of inside info, cleans up the loose ball.

Worsfold is on to this. Quicker players, like Embley, will destroy O'Keefe on this play (see 2006 GF). He's not the dangerous forward he once was because he's been worked out. That's not to say he can't play outside midfield. Sure. That's been his role for two years. But his teeth have been pulled.

Schneider has not improved since his first season. Crock.

Vogels is just very average. He looks good at times in their forward line because he can mark over his head. NOBODY else can. If he played at Richmond he would be a stain on Richo's sock.

Spider Everitt played some good footy for StKilda, albeit sporadically, as a forward. But he's G-O-N-E. He was a has-been three years ago and has gone down hill from there. A former has-been. Nice intro for him. Except it's time to exit.

Sydney's forward line lacks aerial power. It is susceptible to the flood. It's still okay but it's not the benchmark it once was. And crucially, there is nobody new coming through.

 

[Tigers of Old]

The Swans should be in their prime. A fit classy 30yo should be the supreme AFL player. But I don't see it that way for Sydney.


The Swans are fairly predictable. So is the coach. He's no star at the matchups. Eg- his endeavours to match up Judd are usually hilarious. And Hunter doesn't kick three in his other games up forward. Such perseverance in the face of stupidity. If you didn't laugh you'd cry. And crying is for Clokes.

The Swans have been a misunderstood side for many years. They have enjoyed success based in a large part on their outstanding forward line.

But IMO it's in decline.

So we are a good chance to beat them this week on that basis Jack?

Tough mark IMO.
The Swannies are STILL underrated & have enough quality to be top four again.

 

[mb64]

Expect Swans to make the 8 but have little impact in finals.Out in the 1st week.