2007 - Preseason Preview - 13th of 16 - Fremantle

[pahoffm]

Fremantle
The Dockers took a belated but large step last season to play in the Finals.
Can the Dockers continue their forward progression into season 2007? Concerns over the aging of their key runners, Bell, McManus & Cook, will determine this.
Fremantle have been aggressive in their recruitment of mature players. This may be because they see their opportunity as now.
Chris Connolly continues as senior coach, assisted by Western Australians, Michael Broadbridge and Steve Malaxos, with Mark Harvey and Kelly O'Donnell.

Fig.1 - The List
Aaron Sandilands	211	125	24
Robert Warnock	205	80	20
Justin Longmuir	196	100	26
Chris Tarrant	193	92	26	new
Luke McPharlin	193	92	25
Adam Campbell	193	92	22
Michael Johnson	193	97	22
Benet Copping	193	80	20		rookie
Scott Thornton	192	85	24
David Mundy	192	87	21
Ryan Murphy	192	90	21
Matthew Pavlich	191	98	25
Matthew Carr	190	89	28
Daniel Gilmore	190	90	24
Ryan Crowley	190	94	23
Darren Rumble	190	?	22	new	rookie
Marcus Drum	190	82	19
Calib Mourish	190	85	18	new
Robert Haddrill	189	95	26
Steven Dodd	189	82	23
Paul Duffield	189	84	22
Antoni Grover	188	96	27
Dean Solomon	188	100	27	new
Shane Parker	187	92	34
Garrick Ibbotson	187	78	19
Des Headland	185	91	26
Luke Webster	185	88	24
Brett Peake	185	84	23
Chris Smith	184	80	19	new	rookie
Ryley Dunn	182	85	21
Clayton Collard	182	86	17	new
Brock O'Brien	181	75	18	new
Roger Hayden	180	77	26
Paul Hasleby	180	84	25
Andrew Foster	180	76	22	new	rookie
Shaun McManus	179	83	31
James Walker	178	79	28
Josh Carr	178	81	26
Troy Cook	176	82	30
Heath Black	176	82	27
Byron Schammer	176	82	21
Peter Bell	175	85	31
Jeff Farmer	174	80	29
Andrew Browne	174	77	22

The List, fig.1, shows the usual 44 players on the Freo list, 8 are 4, with 4 rookies.
25 of those 44 players, 57% are betwwen 22-27yo, so clearly Freo's window of opportunity is now
18 of the 44, 41%, are over 190cm tall. Yet 12 off 44, 27%, are 180cm or less. The list lacks for taller mediums.

Fig.2 - The Spread
	<175	175-179	180-184	185-189	190-194	195-199	200+
28+	Farmer 174 29 F	McManus 179 31 M		Parker 187 34 D	M.Carr 190 28 D
		Bell 175 31 M
		Cook 176 30 M
25-27		Walker 178 28 D
		Black 176 27 D	Hayden 180 26 D	Grover 188 27 D	Tarrant 193 26 F	Longmuir 196 26 F
		J.Carr 178 26 M	Hasleby 180 25 M	Solomon 188 27 D	McPharlin 193 25 U
				Haddrill 189 26 D	Pavlich 191 25 F
				Headland 185 26 M
22-24
	Browne 174 22 M		Foster 180 22 M	Webster 185 24 U	Thornton 192 24 D		Sandilands 211 24 R
				Dodd 189 23 M	Gilmore 190 24 M
				Peake 185 23 M	Crowley 190 23 D
				Duffield 189 22 D	Campbell 193 22 F
18-21					Johnson 193 22 D
					Rumble 190 22 D
		Schammer 176 21 M	Dunn 182 21 M	Ibbotson 187 19 D	Mundy 192 21 D		Warnock 205 20 R
			Smith 184 19 U		Murphy 192 21 F
			O'Brien 181 18 M		Copping 193 20 F
			Collard 182 17 M		Drum 190 19 D
					Mourish 190 18 F

The Spread, fig.2, shows clearly that Freo have overinvested in junior mobile talls, at the expense of genuine talls & faster taller mediums.
Also clearly shown is that the bulk of the Freo running comes from a group that is not far off retirement, and this group is crucial to their on-field success.
The next draft should see the Dockers recruit heavily in these areas.

Fig.3 - Positional Depth
B:	Walker 178 28 D	Thornton 192 24 D	M.Carr 190 28 D
	Black 176 27 D	Johnson 193 22 D	Gilmore 190 24 M
		Drum 190 19 D	Crowley 190 23 D
			Rumble 190 22 D
HB:	Parker 187 34 D	McPharlin 193 25 U	Hayden 180 26 D
	Grover 188 27 D	Mundy 192 21 D	Webster 185 24 U
	Solomon 188 27 D
	Haddrill 189 26 D
	Duffield 189 22 D
	Ibbotson 187 19 D
C:	Dodd 189 23 M	Hasleby 180 25 M	Dunn 182 21 M
		O'Brien 181 18 M	Foster 180 22 M
		Collard 182 17 M
HF:	Smith 184 19 U	Pavlich 191 25 F
		Murphy 192 21 F
		Copping 193 20 F
F:	Longmuir 196 26 F	Tarrant 193 26 F	Farmer 174 29 F
	Campbell 193 22 F	Mourish 190 18 F	Cook 176 30 M
R:	Sandilands 211 24 R	Headland 185 26 M	Bell 175 31 M
	Warnock 205 20 R	Peake 185 23 M	McManus 179 31 M
			J.Carr 178 26 M
			Browne 174 22 M
			Schammer 176 21 M

Positional Strength, fig.3, shows that Freo have a surplus of defensive tall flankers & 3rd backs, and aging rovers.
They cover their key positions fairly well, but are in dire need of faster flankers.

Conclusion:
Freo's list is positioned such that they may continue just in the finals this year, & maybe next, but it has too many irregularities for sustained and ultimate success.

 

[Tigers of Old]

Top 3 IMO and probably the best placed side to challenge WC.

Extremely potent forward line with Pavlich, Murphy, Farmer & Tarrant the standouts amoung others.

Rapidly improving ruckman in Sandilands and a very handy onball brigade headed by Bell.

Also some well documented teriffic defenders in McPharlin, Johnson, Peake & Mundy.

I think Freo will give it a real shake this year.

 

[pahoffm]

Top 3 IMO and probably the best placed side to challenge WC.

Extremely potent forward line with Pavlich, Murphy, Farmer & Tarrant the standouts amoung others.

Rapidly improving ruckman in Sandilands and a very handy onball brigade headed by Bell.

Also some well documented teriffic defenders in McPharlin, Johnson, Peake & Mundy.

I think Freo will give it a real shake this year.

Agree that their tall/kpp position looks good.
However, doubts about the number & speed of the runners around those kpps lead to doubts, on my part, of their ability to climb to the summit of footy's Everest.