2007 - Preseason Preview - 11th of 16 - StKilda

[pahoffm]

St Kilda
For the last three years, the Saints have carried the heavy weight of expectation upon their shoulders. Unfotunately, with some major injuries, some big cracks appeared. Yet despite these cracks, the Saints finished a creditably in the finals.
This year, StKilda will be travelling in a new path with new helmsman Ross Lyon. He has already moved the counter many of the major criticisms levelled at his predecessor.
Lyon, a former midfielder/defender, seems to have a well balanced set of assistants in Anthony Rock, John Barker and Steven Silvagni.

Fig.1 - The List
Luke van Rheenen	201	90	19	new	rookie
Matthew Clarke	200	100	33	new
Michael Rix	200	98	26
Michael Gardiner	199	99	27	new
James Wall	199	80	20	new	rookie
Barry Brooks	198	95	23
Justin Koschitzke	197	96	24
Fergus Watts	197	92	21
Fraser Gehrig	195	104	31
Sam Gilbert	194	84	20
Nick Riewoldt	193	95	24
Jarryd Allen	193	88	18	new
Max Hudghton	191	92	30
Sam Fisher	191	88	24
Brendon Goddard	191	96	21
Matt Maguire	190	96	22
Jason Blake	189	87	26
Raphael Clarke	188	82	21
James Gwilt	188	90	20
Matthew Ferguson	187	87	22
Jayden Attard	187	84	21	new	rookie
Lenny Hayes	186	85	27
Aaron Fiora	186	80	25
Jason Gram	186	84	22
Phillip Raymond	186	69	19
Justin Sweeney	186	87	19
Nick Dal Santo	185	83	23
Aaron Hamill	184	94	29
Leigh Fisher	184	90	22
David Armitage	184	80	18	new
Shane Birss	183	80	24	new
Clinton Jones	183	83	23	new	rookie
Luke Ball	183	84	22
Jarryn Geary	183	75	18	new	rookie
Robert Eddy	182	83	19	new	rookie
Robert Harvey	181	84	35
Brett Voss	181	84	29
Xavier Clarke	181	80	23
Brad Howard	181	72	18	new
Andrew Thompson	180	81	34
Steven Baker	179	83	26
Andrew McQualter	179	79	20
Leigh Montagna	178	76	23
Stephen Milne	176	80	27

The List, fig.1, has 44 players on it, which is normal. Of these, 11 are new, of which six are rookies.
Sixteen of the 44, 36%, are over 190cm. Whilst another 17 of the 44, also 39%, are below 185cm. This is seemimngly a well balanced group of talls and smalls.
Apparently StKilda, like the Bulldogs, have invested heavily in pension plans. They too have five players 30yo or more.
Seriously though, they have 30 of the 44, 68%, below 25yo, which gives them a great future.

Fig.2 - The Spread
	<175	175-179	180-184	185-189	190-194	195-199	200+
28+			Harvey 181 35 M		Hudghton 191 30 D	Gehrig 195 31 F	M.Clarke 200 33 R
			Thompson 180 34 D
			Voss 181 29 D
25-27			Hamill 184 29 F
		Milne 176 27 F		Hayes 186 27 M		Gardiner 199 27 R	Rix 200 26 R
		Baker 179 26 D		Blake 189 26 U
				Fiora 186 25 M
22-24
		Montagna 178 23 D	Birss 183 24 D	Dal Santo 185 23 M	Riewoldt 193 24 F	Koschitzke 197 24 F
			Jones 183 23 U	Ferguson 187 22 D	S.Fisher 191 24 D	Brooks 198 23 R
			X.Clarke 181 23 M	Gram 186 22 D	Maguire 190 22 D
			L.Fisher 184 22 D
			Ball 183 22 M
18-21		McQualter 179 20 M	Eddy 182 19 M	R.Clarke 188 21 D	Goddard 191 21 D	Watts 197 21 F	Rheenen 201 19 R
			Armitage 184 18 M	Attard 187 21 D	Gilbert 194 20 D	Wall 199 20 U
			Howard 181 18 M	Gwilt 188 20 M	Allen 193 18 U
			Geary 183 18 M	Raymond 186 19 M
				Sweeney 186 19 M

The Spread, fig.2, indicates a pretty well-balanced list. The twilight players look as if they can be easily replaced with quality youngsters in coming years.
It's hard to fault this list, maybe a couple of extra junior rovers, but it generally looks pretty good.

Fig.3 - Positional Depth
B:	Thompson 180 34 D	Hudghton 191 30 D	Blake 189 26 U
	Baker 179 26 D	S.Fisher 191 24 D	Goddard 191 21 D
	Montagna 178 23 D	Wall 199 20 U
HB:	Gram 186 22 D	Maguire 190 22 D	Voss 181 29 D
	L.Fisher 184 22 D	Gilbert 194 20 D	Birss 183 24 D
	Ferguson 187 22 D		Jones 183 23 U
	Attard 187 21 D
C:	Fiora 186 25 M	Hayes 186 27 M	X.Clarke 181 23 M
	R.Clarke 188 21 D	Armitage 184 18 M	Geary 183 18 M
	Raymond 186 19 M
	Sweeney 186 19 M
HF:	Hamill 184 29 F	Riewoldt 193 24 F	Harvey 181 35 M
	Gwilt 188 20 M		Eddy 182 19 M
F:	Koschitzke 197 24 F	Gehrig 195 31 F	Milne 176 27 F
	Watts 197 21 F	Allen 193 18 U
R:	M.Clarke 200 33 R	Ball 183 22 M	McQualter 179 20 M
	Gardiner 199 27 R	Dal Santo 185 23 M
	Rix 200 26 R	Howard 181 18 M
	Brooks 198 23 R
	Rheenen 201 19 R

Positional Strength, fig.3, indicates that the major worry now lies in its most important position, CHF. Riewoldt is now 24yo and the Saints don't have a similarly classy junior to cover for him.
My guess will be that CHF will be the Saints prime target for the National Draft at year's end.
There is one big hole, a class rover or two would also be on the Saints Christmas shopping list.

Conclusion:
Ross Lyon has found himself in a dream position. He has just taken over a team that is already established in a premiership window, and now has gone about recruiting to fill those junior & senior holes in its list.
I think having a new coach, with new ideas, could be a filip to lift this team towards ultimate glory. Much of that will depend on the coach's actual performance in a new role and, of course, the players.

 

[Tigers of Old]

Surprisingly positive review Phantom, I am far from convinced about the Aints list. I think their premiership window is in fact closing.

Their defence looks thin as does their ruck stocks.
Maguire & hayes have had a serious injuries and are unlikely to have a big influence.
Maguire at CHB is a particularly big loss from what was already a slow & undersized defence.
Gardiner & Clarke are big names but unlikely to give them much of a boost in this area.

Add to this Harvey, Gehrig, Hammill and Thompson are all past their best and are injury prone. Milne also looks a shadow of the player he was and any team that has Fiora still on their list has depth issues.

Whilst they might scrape into the 8 as they still have some talented players in Dal Santo & Riewoldt, last years disappointment looks set to continue despite a new coach.

Lyon will have to be a genius to win them a premiership in '07.

 

[tigers80]

Sorry they just dont inspire me, new coach and all...next please...

 

[TigerMasochist]

I think they have enough in their list to be top 4 as long as the injury gods give them a free ride.
They've got enough finals experience and have shown themselves capable of smashing ordinary sides to be up there again not sure if they have the all over balance of sides like Sydney and West coast to go all the way.

 

[pahoffm]

Just realised I'd left out Jarryn Geary from StKilda's rookies.
I liked Jarryn Geary too, when I watched him playing for Bendigo.

They have 44 players.
I've adjusted the preview accordingly.

 

[TOT70]

They would want to get something substantial out of this year. This is a Dad's Army with Harvey, Clarke, Thompson, Gehrig and Hudghton. Throw in Gardner and Hamill whose bodies are just about shot and you have a team well into their Premiership-chasing days but also close to the brink.
SHould they win the premiership, there'll be at least 5 immediate retirememts

 

[Tigers of Old]

Poor Hamill having more surgery on his knees.

They are a different side with him fit which hasn't been often. They are going to slide I tell ya.

 

[pahoffm]

Poor Hamill having more surgery on his knees.

They are a different side with him fit which hasn't been often. They are going to slide I tell ya.

Yep, footballers are a perishable commodity.