2007 - Preseason Preview - 10th of 16 - Melbourne

[pahoffm]

Melbourne
Over the last couple of seasons the experienced legs at Melbourne have begun to show their age. Hurriedly, Neale Daniher has gone about replacing these with younger sets. But how effective has the exercise been?
The fact that Melbourne continue to play in finals, whilst in this process of rebuilding, is a credit to their footy department.
Daniher continues as senior coach, assisted by Peter Curran, the Western Australian Mark Riley, and new addition Paul Williams.

Fig.1 - The List
Shane Neaves	199	90	19		rookie
Ben Holland	198	100	29
Mark Jamar	198	103	23
Alistair Nicholson	197	100	29
Jeff White	195	95	30
Ryan Ferguson	195	91	25
Brad Miller	194	96	23
Michael Newton	193	90	19
James Frawley	193	81	18	new
Jared Rivers	192	92	22
Matthew Warnock	192	92	22
Lynden Dunn	192	93	19
David Neitz	191	103	32
Nathan Carroll	191	91	26
Matthew Bate	191	89	19
Colin Garland	191	85	18	new
Cameron Bruce	190	88	27
Paul Wheatley	189	90	25
Chris Johnson	189	86	21
Simon Buckley	189	81	19
Clint Bizzell	188	89	30
Adem Yze	187	87	29
Russell Robertson	187	93	28
Daniel Bell	186	88	21
Colin Sylvia	186	87	21
Daniel Hughes	186	82	20		rookie
Heath Neville	186	83	19
Daniel Ward	185	84	29
Ricky Petterd	185	77	18	new
Simon Godfrey	184	86	26
Brad Green	184	85	26
Brock McLean	184	86	21
Isaac Weetra	184	76	17	new
Travis Johnstone	183	83	26
Jace Bode	183	80	19		rookie
Brent Moloney	181	88	23
Clint Bartram	181	73	19
Nathan Brown	180	76	30
James McDonald	180	74	30
Matthew Whelan	180	84	27
Daniel Hayes	180	70	18	new	rookie
Nathan Jones	179	85	19
Byron Pickett	178	86	29
Aaron Davey	177	72	23

The List, fig.1, indicates that Melbourne has used their full entitlement of 44 players, of which a below average 5 are new, and of which 4 rookies.
Eleven of the 44, 25%, are in the twilight zone, and 17 of the 44, almost 40% are above 25yo. In contrast, 19 of the 44 are 21yo or less., 43%,
Only 15 of the 44 players, 34%, are below 185cm. One must doubt that Melbourne has enough legs to run out a full season.
Much will depend on how quickly Daniher can transform those legs of his juniors into elite AFL standard.

Fig.2 - The Spread
	<175	175-179	180-184	185-189	190-194	195-199	200+
28+		Pickett 178 29 M	Brown 180 30 D	Bizzell 188 30 D	Neitz 191 32 F	White 195 30 R
			McDonald 180 30 M	Yze 187 29 M		Holland 198 29 F
				Ward 185 29 D		Nicholson 197 29 D
25-27				Robertson 187 28 F
			Whelan 180 27 D		Bruce 190 27 M	Ferguson 195 25 D
			Godfrey 184 27 D		Carroll 191 26 D
			Green 184 26 F	Wheatley 189 25 D
			T.Johnstone 183 26 M
22-24
		Davey 177 23 F	Moloney 181 23 M		Miller 194 23 F	Jamar 198 23 R
					Rivers 192 22 D
					Warnock 192 22 D
18-21
		Jones 179 19 M	McLean 184 21 M	C.Johnson 189 21 D	Newton 193 19 F	Neaves 199 18 R
			Bode 183 19 M	Bell 186 21 D	Dunn 192 19 F
			Bartram 181 19 M	Sylvia 186 21 M	Bate 191 19 F
			Hayes 180 18 M	Hughes 186 20 U	Frawley 193 18 D
			Weetra 184 17 U	Buckley 189 19 M	Garland 191 18 F
				Neville 186 19 M
				Petterd 185 18 D

The Spread, fig.2, hits clearly the message of Melbourne's lack of small runners. It also clearly shows the polarisation of the list into either twilighters or juniors, with little in between.
Melbourne's great weakness in 2007 will be its ability to run out full games, and to run out a full season. This will be valuable information towards other teams' tactics against them.
The other area is the absence of any beanstalk ruckmen, so popular in today's footy.

Fig.3 - Positional Depth
B:	Ward 185 29 D	Nicholson 197 29 D	Carroll 191 26 D
	Whelan 180 27 D	Ferguson 195 25 D	Warnock 192 22 D
		Frawley 193 18 D
HB:	Bizzell 188 30 D	Rivers 192 22 D	Brown 180 30 D
	Wheatley 189 25 D	Bate 191 19 F	Godfrey 184 27 D
	C.Johnson 189 21 D		Bell 186 21 D
	Hughes 186 20 U		Petterd 185 18 D
C:	Yze 187 29 M	McLean 184 21 M	Johnstone 183 26 M
	Bruce 190 27 M	Bode 183 19 M	Moloney 181 23 M
	Buckley 189 19 M		Hayes 180 18 M
HF:	Robertson 187 28 F	Miller 194 23 F	Pickett 178 29 M
	Green 184 26 F	Dunn 192 19 F
	Weetra 184 17 U
F:	Holland 198 29 F	Neitz 191 32 F	Davey 177 23 F
		Newton 193 19 F
		Garland 191 18 F
R:	White 195 30 R	Sylvia 186 21 M	McDonald 180 30 M
	Jamar 198 23 R	Bartram 181 19 M	Jones 179 19 M
	Neaves 199 18 R	Neville 186 19 M

Positional Strength, fig.3, again shows lack of genuine runners, and how Daniher will be needing to rotate many of his juniors, in those positions, to take up the slack.
Melbourne have some very good juniors coming up to fill their key positions in the future.

Conclusion:
As said, where Melbourne will finish, in 2007, will much depend on how well they run out each game, and the full season.
Especially since most of their key running positions are filled with old legs.

 

[CHF]

Re: 2007 Previews

Hello Phantom and others....

it has been a while since I posted here but with the coming season I thought to drop in and have a look around. I see the place is as untidy as always....no, that is not right. Now that you are moving in a positive direction there seems to be less disenting voices.

With regard to the Melbourne preview I would like to note a few things. As I am sure you can imagine.

A couple of minor things, Nicholson retired and there is no mention of Paul Johnson, a big lump of a kid we got from WC at the beginning of last season. Does not make a lot of difference to the list cept that one was pushing 30 and the other is 24 and one was an ordinary FB and the other is a forward/ruck...

From reading the preview I get the distinct feeling that you do not really rate us. Looking to see us run out of legs at the end of the season. I can see where that idea is coming from. Our results over the last couple od season have shown a distinct tapering off at the business end of the season. In 2005 I believe that was as a result of incorrect trainning methods in the last thrid of the season. There was a belief that you should flog the team to death for w few weeks in late july/early August to get them to peak for the finals. That is all very well but someone forgot to think about a small matter of winning games during the season...

2006 was a horror draw with almost all of our home games in the first part of the season and them away games and interstate games in the last half.

This year I expect an improvement from last. We have almost the very same list as we had and a lot of the improvement I expect will come from the natural improvement from the individuals in their skills and fitness.

If we have our fair share of injuries and no more than others I expect an improvement and a push for the top 4.

The older players are still very able to produce and give good consistent games. We have a couple of our mid aged players that are genuine drivers on the ground. Not superstars, but very, very good players. Johnstone and Bruce come to mind.

And we have some good young players that now have a few years of training and games in their background and legs. Rivers, McLean and Davey. Add to that a few players that I have a lot of confidence in what they showed last year and I think we have a side that has developed well.

Bate, Dunn are two players that we took as bottom age in the draft a couple of years ago and from what they have shown so far they will be key players in the not too distant future. The Jones boy can play and Bartram surprised everybody last year.

I have a few lazy notes of different denominations that will testify to my belief we can do well and even better than the Tiges this year.

Mind you, Now that I am sitting on my bum over on the coast of spain, it may be a little difficult to transact the money exchange.

Want my view from afar of the Tiges?

 

[pahoffm]

Hi CHF,

Thanks for your comments.

Can't believe I left Paul Johnson out. I remember watching him as a boy on Shepley Oval.

In regards to Melbourne, yes, you have picked up Bartram & Jones, et al, to go with Sylvia & McLean.
Dunn, Bate are very good mobile kpp prospects too.
However, throughout the season, the bulk of your running will again come from:
30 - Brown, McDonald & White
29 - Pickett, Yze, Ward
Until there is a cultural change at Melbourne, that actually replaces these older players in the major running positions, further progession will be difficult.
I'm sure it will come, if only through necessity.

I'd welcome your opinion on the Tiges.
You can post it here or on the Richmond preview thread.

 

[CHF]

As they say Phantom, the proof of the pudding will be in the eating.

Of the six players mentioned, Brown and Ward will not be fixtures in the team as I doubt they are now considered in the top 22.

Pickett will play off the bench and Yze will be under pressure as well.

McDonald is coming off a big season of AA and B&F and White does not have the impact he once had because of rule changes as much as anything.

Last season we did not get a hell of a lot of run out of these six and they collectively did not have a big impact on our season. I don't really expect this to change too much this year.

I think we will get more from the second age group players in Bruce, Green and Johnstone.

Will be an interesting year for the team.

I will be personally disappointed if we do not get a top 4 position.

I will give you a view of the tiges next week. I am travelling the next few days until Wednesday of next week.

 

[pahoffm]

Thanks

Looks like the transformation at Melbourne is happening now.

Looking forward to your Tiger preview.

Have a great weekend!